edit 9-11-21: From 18-10-2021 I started using the new tool. Same system, but it gives me more time frames to trade, the possibility to add other tickers, like FESX, NQ and ES, and much more to still investigate
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edit 17-5-2021: Changes made to the strategy file. Restart of this journal/strategy:
Today the first day using the new file. This file also contains the win percentage for each trade; the previous files didnt have this, and I could only check this manually for a few good looking trades. The win % will be telling …
And a few post before, I wrote a bit about some other changes.
Compared to the text below, now I work with fixed setups. This to avoid cherry-picking.
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The trades in this journal are based on historical statistics (FDAX 2010-2021Q1). I’m looking at the initial balance of the RTH DAX future (= IB = first 30 minutes 9:00-9:30 CET). And I’m looking at its direction, its position compared to the prior day and/or the prior day direction and the direction of the day before that. Possibly I’m adding some other parameters, but first will see how things turn out.
At 9:30 there can be 3 outcomes, a green IB (IBL), a red IB (IBS) or a (to be ignored) flat IB. Both IBL and IBS can trigger a long trade and a short trade. In my Excel sheets with the historical data, I will fill in the conditions that are actual for that day. The sheets then give me the best results for a long trade and for a short trade, with an entry – and exit time and the SL. I will only take a trade in case either the long trade or the short trade show a (to be defined) significant historical positive result.
I only take one trade per day and only if the odds look good ('Good? What's good??' ). In case (for example) a long trade is triggered for the morning and a short trade for the afternoon, I might take 2 trades, but I expect that to be exceptional. All trades start between 9:30 and 12:00 and exit between 10:00 and 15:30 (on the open and close of a 30 minute bar on the FDAX), with a SL 5 to 60 points.
To manage my risk, I will implement a schedule that tells me when to increase (and decrease!) the number of contracts to trade (posted below). For the journal, the results mentioned are in points for 1 contract traded.
The trading in this journal is inspired by GFIs1’s journal. I will also share my trades with you, with SL, and upfront if possible. Some days I will need to wait till the IB finished (9:30) to be able to decide on the trade, then to start the trade, and then to post it here. This is clearly not an investment advice, but just a personal journal.
A bit about myself. I’m from Amsterdam, have an accounting background and have been working self-employed since 2005. I started to work fulltime on trading in June 2019. I had been trading mainly stocks and stock options for about 25 years, just sometimes when I felt like it and without any plan. In the last 1,5 year I learned a lot and have a much better understanding of the retail trader’s world. During this time tried several ways of trading and one of the conclusions is, that trading without a plan, is (like I read over and over again) not going to work out. This seems to be something you have to experience, not just to be told. FIO is a big help in the whole process and I’m glad to be part of this great and helpful community.
I hope to get your feedback, for instance on the statistics I’m using, but let’s first get started.
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Wednesday 10 Feb 2021: IBS (first 30 minutes a red bar)
For the short trade, after applying the filters for that moment, it gives an outcome of 240pts with 17 trades, 4 wins/13 losses:
For the long trade, after applying the filters for that moment, it gives an outcome of 704pts with 17 trades, 13 wins/4 losses:
So, here I would take the long trade, from 9:30 till 14:30 with a SL of 45 pts. This would have resulted in 14 pts profit. Not much, but just wanted to give an example
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Because each weekday has its own statistics, basically there are 10 options:
5 weekdays with an IBL or an IBS
In 11 years, there are roughly 2800 trading days (after excluding holidays/IFO days), if you assume 50-50 on short and long IB’s, there are about 280 short trades per weekday and 280 long trades. But because of all the conditions I can filter on, it gives (way to) many possibilities.
I’m not sure how to approach this and am struggling with questions like, is the sample size big enough to count on these statistics? And if yes, to rely on the results, how many trades should be the minimum to take the trade?
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I don’t need to earn the margin before stepping up to the next level, but I want a) to trade 5 FDXM as soon as my profits are covering the risk and b) to be able to minimalize the risk considering a).
The below schedule indicates how I will increase/decrease the number of traded contracts.
* = The cumulative results (in EUR) minus 50% of the risk on this trade determines the number of contracts to trade
The above schedule will be applied to each of these options separately:
Once profits are coming in, scaling down and moving the SL are to be investigated.
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In the Wednesday IBS (red IB bar) file, when I add filters on ‘Down gap’, ’Gap closed’ and IB 9:30 position ‘Below’, the results given are only based on 8 trades (in 11 years).
* For the short trade it gave 88 pts (4 win/4 loss), 9:30-11:30 SL 20.
* For the long trade it gave 292 pts (5 win/3 loss), 10:00-14:30 SL15.
The numbers for the long trade look good enough, I just think the 8 (historical) trades is too small quantity to use here as a trigger for a live trade. So no trade today.
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In the Thursday files, when I add filters on ‘No gap’, IB 9:30 position ‘Inside’ and filters on Prior Day OC and the day before, the better results are given for the short trade. At 9:30 the IB position was shortly below and not inside prior day’s HL range though.
For the short trade it gave 446 pts (15 win/4 loss), 10:30-14:30 SL 35.
For the long trade it gave 168 pts (4 win/15 loss).
The numbers for the short trade look good, also because when I remove filters step by step, the short trade keeps on showing good results (on bigger number of trades, so that gives more confidence).
DAX Short trade
Entry 10:30 @ 13905
Exit 14:30 @ 13940 (SL 13:33)
SL 35pts (CORRECTED)
Result - 35 pts
Historical results with this setup :
446 pts (15 win/4 loss)
Let's see
Edit 14:32 – In the morning the SL seemed to be spot on, and then price went in the right direction. Until it didn’t
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In the Friday files, when I add filters on ‘No gap’, IB 9:30 position ‘Inside’ and filters on Prior Day OC and the day before, the better results are given for the short trade.
DAX Short trade
Entry 10:00 @ 13937
Exit 12:30 @ 13949
SL 40pts
Result - 12 pts
Historical results with this setup:
758 pts (18 win/10 loss)
Let's see
edit 13:30: At least the SL was good
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(German) IFO day (@10am).
This weekend I started to analyse the IFO days (2010-2020), but unfortunately the work is not finished yet. So I won't trade today.
Soon I will have detailed analyses to share with you, showing historical results for trading on IFO days.
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). In case (for example) a long trade is triggered for the morning and a short trade for the afternoon, I might take 2 trades, but I expect that to be exceptional. All trades start between 9:30 and 12:00 and exit between 10:00 and 15:30 (on the open and close of a 30 minute bar on the FDAX), with a SL 5 to 60 
