The trades in this journal are based on historical statistics (FDAX 2010-2020). I’m looking at the initial balance of the RTH DAX future (= IB = first 30 minutes 9:00-9:30 CET). And I’m looking at its direction, its position compared to the prior day and/or the prior day direction and the direction of the day before that. Possibly I’m adding some other parameters, but first will see how things turn out.
At 9:30 there can be 3 outcomes, a green IB (IBL), a red IB (IBS) or a (to be ignored) flat IB. Both IBL and IBS can trigger a long trade and a short trade. In my Excel sheets with the historical data, I will fill in the conditions that are actual for that day. The sheets then give me the best results for a long trade and for a short trade, with an entry – and exit time and the SL. I will only take a trade in case either the long trade or the short trade show a (to be defined) significant historical positive result.
I only take one trade per day and only if the odds look good ('Good? What's good??' ). In case (for example) a long trade is triggered for the morning and a short trade for the afternoon, I might take 2 trades, but I expect that to be exceptional. All trades start between 9:30 and 12:00 and exit between 10:00 and 15:30 (on the open and close of a 30 minute bar on the FDAX), with a SL 5 to 60 points.
To manage my risk, I will implement a schedule that tells me when to increase (and decrease!) the number of contracts to trade (posted below). For the journal, the results mentioned are in points for 1 contract traded.
The trading in this journal is inspired by GFIs1’s journal. I will also share my trades with you, with SL, and upfront if possible. Some days I will need to wait till the IB finished (9:30) to be able to decide on the trade, then to start the trade, and then to post it here. This is clearly not an investment advice, but just a personal journal.
A bit about myself. I’m from Amsterdam, have an accounting background and have been working self-employed since 2005. I started to work fulltime on trading in June 2019. I had been trading mainly stocks and stock options for about 25 years, just sometimes when I felt like it and without any plan. In the last 1,5 year I learned a lot and have a much better understanding of the retail trader’s world. During this time tried several ways of trading and one of the conclusions is, that trading without a plan, is (like I read over and over again) not going to work out. This seems to be something you have to experience, not just to be told. FIO is a big help in the whole process and I’m glad to be part of this great and helpful community.
I hope to get your feedback, for instance on the statistics I’m using, but let’s first get started.
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Wednesday 10 Feb 2021: IBS (first 30 minutes a red bar)
For the short trade, after applying the filters for that moment, it gives an outcome of 240pts with 17 trades, 4 wins/13 losses:
For the long trade, after applying the filters for that moment, it gives an outcome of 704pts with 17 trades, 13 wins/4 losses:
So, here I would take the long trade, from 9:30 till 14:30 with a SL of 45 pts. This would have resulted in 14 pts profit. Not much, but just wanted to give an example
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Because each weekday has its own statistics, basically there are 10 options:
5 weekdays with an IBL or an IBS
In 11 years, there are roughly 2800 trading days (after excluding holidays/IFO days), if you assume 50-50 on short and long IB’s, there are about 280 short trades per weekday and 280 long trades. But because of all the conditions I can filter on, it gives (way to) many possibilities.
I’m not sure how to approach this and am struggling with questions like, is the sample size big enough to count on these statistics? And if yes, to rely on the results, how many trades should be the minimum to take the trade?
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I don’t need to earn the margin before stepping up to the next level, but I want a) to trade 5 FDXM as soon as my profits are covering the risk and b) to be able to minimalize the risk considering a).
The below schedule indicates how I will increase/decrease the number of traded contracts.
* = The cumulative results (in EUR) minus 50% of the risk on this trade determines the number of contracts to trade
The above schedule will be applied to each of these options separately:
Once profits are coming in, scaling down and moving the SL are to be investigated.
In the Wednesday IBS (red IB bar) file, when I add filters on ‘Down gap’, ’Gap closed’ and IB 9:30 position ‘Below’, the results given are only based on 8 trades (in 11 years).
* For the short trade it gave 88 pts (4 win/4 loss), 9:30-11:30 SL 20.
* For the long trade it gave 292 pts (5 win/3 loss), 10:00-14:30 SL15.
The numbers for the long trade look good enough, I just think the 8 (historical) trades is too small quantity to use here as a trigger for a live trade. So no trade today.
In the Thursday files, when I add filters on ‘No gap’, IB 9:30 position ‘Inside’ and filters on Prior Day OC and the day before, the better results are given for the short trade. At 9:30 the IB position was shortly below and not inside prior day’s HL range though.
For the short trade it gave 446 pts (15 win/4 loss), 10:30-14:30 SL 35.
For the long trade it gave 168 pts (4 win/15 loss).
The numbers for the short trade look good, also because when I remove filters step by step, the short trade keeps on showing good results (on bigger number of trades, so that gives more confidence).
DAX Short trade
Entry 10:30 @ 13905
Exit 14:30 @ 13940 (SL 13:33)
SL 35pts (CORRECTED)
Result - 35 pts
Historical results with this setup :
446 pts (15 win/4 loss)
Let's see
Edit 14:32 – In the morning the SL seemed to be spot on, and then price went in the right direction. Until it didn’t
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In the Friday files, when I add filters on ‘No gap’, IB 9:30 position ‘Inside’ and filters on Prior Day OC and the day before, the better results are given for the short trade.
DAX Short trade
Entry 10:00 @ 13937
Exit 12:30 @ 13949
SL 40pts
Result - 12 pts
Historical results with this setup:
758 pts (18 win/10 loss)
Let's see
edit 13:30: At least the SL was good
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(German) IFO day (@10am).
This weekend I started to analyse the IFO days (2010-2020), but unfortunately the work is not finished yet. So I won't trade today.
Soon I will have detailed analyses to share with you, showing historical results for trading on IFO days.
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I have been analysing historical data (from 2010 to 2020) on IFO days.
Below I mention the best results, only based on the direction of the 10:00-10:30 bar and additional the IB direction.
First, I looked at setups with entry time 10:30 (30 minutes after IFO announcement):
The green marked setup seems to be interesting.
Next, I looked at setups with entry times 10:30, 11:00, 11:30 and 12:00:
Some have a nice win rate, but in general the risk-reward doesn’t look good.
To decrease risk/exposure it might be worth to choose for instance a lower SL or a shorter trading timeframe with a slightly lower result.
When adding other filters (like with the daily trades), it will give different outcomes. For instance, looking at the length of the 10:00-10:30 bar will have a positive effect on the results:
There are several ways to drill down on the data/results, but here I just wanted to show you the outcome of this analyses on IFO days
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if you add here and there filters and filter out the very thin data basis even more, you are making cherry picking. This will not result in a stable system. You should split your data basis in a training- and test set and compare the results with fixed rules. You should also measure the size distribution of the trade results. If you make any good looking "profit per trade" numbers with only very few trades, these could be outlier which skews your results. But these are the basics of backtesting which were already well described here at futuresio.
Regards,
Koepisch
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Thank you. I am looking help, so your feedback is appreciated.
I am aware of the thin data basis, and that with filtering down the selection becomes cherry picking. I wasn’t sure about my approach. About when the selection becomes cherry picking, about the population/sample size, and how to approach this data in finding setups. I have been searching on how to handle statistics (without the answers I was looking for), but not on back testing; will do. Is there perhaps a good thread you can recommend?
For my understanding, for example, taking the IFO case above, the bottom setup filters the IFO days, 10:00-10:30 bar green within a (length) range, and triggers a long trade from 11:30-14:30 with a SL of 20pts. Can’t this be seen as fixed rules? I guess not, but is that because only 19 trades remained?
Thanks again,
Deetee
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In the Tuesday files, when I add filters on IBS, ‘Up gap & gap closed’ , IB 9:30 position ‘Inside’ the results look good but conflicting.
For a short trade the best result is 445 pts (12 win/9 loss), but this includes a large win of 353 pts.
For a long trade the best result is 466 pts (12 win/9 loss), this include large winners of 222 + 146 pts.
So, no trade today
edit 24-2-21 7:50: I just now notice that the short trade was for 9:30-11:00 (SL50) and the long trade for 11:00-15:30 (SL40). The short would have given 142 pts profit and the long 40 pts loss
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This morning I noticed that yesterday the trading times of the short and the long trades were not conflicting (as the trading times were not overlapping) and would have given a nice profit (102 pts). I was a bit in a rush and didn’t do the preparation work properly. Lesson learned.
In the Wednesday files, when I add filters on IBL, ‘No gap’, IB 9:30 position ‘Inside’ and Prior Day Hi/Lo on extreme, the results are not the best but the win rates are OK.
For a short trade the best result is only 136 pts (9 win/3 loss), from 11:30 – 12:00 SL20.
For a long trade the best result is 186 pts (9 win/3 loss), from 12:00 – 14:00 SL45.
I will take both trades, only for the long trade using a 20 pts stop (178 pts, 9 win/3 loss) to have a better risk/reward.
DAX Short trade
Entry 11:30 @ 13971
Exit 12:00 @ 13991 (SL, was exactly the high of this 30min bar. I traded the CFD IBDE30 and escaped from the SL and ended with 1 pts loss)
SL 20pts
Result - 20 pts
Historical results with this setup:
136 pts (9 win/3 loss)
= = = =
DAX Long trade
Entry 12:00 @ 13974 (not the best place to go long)
Exit 14:00 @
SL 20pts
Result - 20 pts
Historical results with this setup:
178 pts (9 win/3 loss)
Let's see
edit 17:48 Well, at least I'm creating some statistics. Hopefully better tomorrow
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In the Thursday files, when I add filters on IBS, ‘Up gap & closed’, IB 9:30 position ‘Above’ it turns out that there were only 7 occurrences (out of 269 Thursday IBS days in 2010 to 2020). I’m taking the ‘Above’ as the IB closed near prior day’s high, which then gives 39 occurrences.
For a short trade the best result is 574 pts (18 win/21 loss), from 9:30 – 15:00 SL30.
For a long trade the best result is 461 pts (24 win/15 loss), from 11:00 – 12:30 SL25.
The win rate should at least be 1 so the short trade is off. I will take the long trade, also because when I filter it down with prior day OC and the day before, results still look good.
DAX Long trade
Entry 11:00 @ 13971
Exit 12:30 @ 13946 (SL)
SL 25pts
Result - 25 pts
Historical results with this setup:
461 pts (24 win/15 loss)
Let's see
edit 12:30 So far, not so good. Anyway, I'm learning
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Good morning, today it is the last trading day of the month, which I analysed separately.
There are 84 occurrences between 2010 and 2020. So, the sample size is small. When adding Friday and IBL to the filters only 7 occurrences remain… Too thin for a trade.
Anyway, just for the record:
For a short trade the best result is 112 pts (4 win/3 loss), from 11:00 – 12:00 SL20.
For a long trade the best result is 153 pts (5 win/2 loss), from 12:00 – 14:00 SL45.
No trade today
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6 trades, 6 losses. This journal might looks like a joke, but it's a real thing
The only winning day (2 trades, 102pts, last Tuesday) I missed by 'mistake'
Basicly I see 10 setups (see table above) and 6 of them lost their first trade. I would like to think 'you win some, you lose some', but 6 losses out of 6 (or 7 losses out of 8 if I include last Tuesday) doesn't sound good.
Please comment on the approach as I can use some help to understand if this approach is a waste of time or not.
Anyway, have a good weekend and Monday another try.
Cheers,
Deetee
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In the Monday files, when I add filters on IBL, ‘Up gap & not closed’ and a Prior Day and the day before open/close ranges, the short trades give the better results.
I picked this setup because the win rate is good, and because on a higher level the results were ok as well:
DAX Short trade
Entry 12:00 @ 13937
Exit 15:00 @ 13914
SL 20 pts
Result 23 pts
Historical results with this setup:
253 pts (9 win/2 loss)
Let's see
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In the Tuesday files, when I add filters on IBL, ‘No gap’ and on Prior Day and the day before open/close ranges, the long trades give the better results.
For a long trade the best result is 342 pts (19 win/6 loss), from 10:30 – 15:30 SL35.
For a short trade the best result is 215 pts (4 win/12 loss), from 09:30 – 15:30 SL10.
DAX Long trade
Entry 10:30 @ 13997
Exit 15:30 @ 14091
SL 35 pts
Result 94 pts
Historical results with this setup:
342 pts (19 win/6 loss)
In the Wednesday files, when I add filters on IBL and on ‘Up gap & not closed’, then the long trades give better results (591pts 23win/16loss, 9:30-14:00 SL50) than the short trades.
After filtering down to prior day OC green and also 2 days ago OC green, the long trade results are not good and also. With these filters, the short trades look a bit better (183/11 7win/4loss, 11:30-15:30 SL60), but with this thin sample size and with an SL of 60 points I won’t take the trade.
In the Thursday files, when I add filters on IBL, on ‘No gap’ and on Prior Day Hi/Lo, then the short trades give much better results (1037pts 51 win/21 loss) than the long trades.
After adding filters on prior day OC and the day before, the long trades are still not looking good (although long 9:30-10:00 with SL15 could make some points).
The short trade still looks good (301 pts 12 win/5 loss):
DAX Short trade
Entry 10:30 @ 14003
Exit 15:00 @ 14048 (SL)
SL 45 pts
Result -45 pts
Historical results with this setup:
1008 pts (50 win/22 loss)
In the Friday files, when I add filters on IBS, on ‘No gap’ and IB 9:30 position below prior day Hi/Lo, the short trades look much better. The win rate is not too good, but in recent years it looks better.
Also after adding filters on prior day OC and the day before, the short trade 9:30-12:30 still looks ok:
DAX Short trade
Entry 9:30 @ 13926
Exit 12:30 @ 13956 (SL)
SL 30 pts
Result - 30 pts
Historical results with this setup:
280 pts (13 win/9 loss)
With only 10 trades in this journal I'm curious to see how this will turn out on the longer term. Context is probably most important in trading and I'm not sure how to come up with context/bias based on numbers.
I don't have clear what the answers are to questions I am having. Questions like, is the sample size big enough to rely on these statistics? And if yes, to rely on the results, how many trades should be the minimum to take the trade?
I'm considering to look for higher level setups (I mean with less filtering down) which would be based on a bigger sample size.
Monday another day. Have a good weekend
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For sure you do have more questions than answers. So let's play some more cards:
First I want to give a precise answer on two events
• A GAP in my trading is defined as IB 30m hi/lo of cash hour is OUTSIDE of previous day range. Totally.
• A Range Cross (VTR) in my system is when the IB is crossing the hi/lo of yesterday's range. This can happen inside out or vice versa.
The second term had not been described as I read your journal. But this is far more often than a real gap.
More from my system here
I am using in my rule set a combination of above events in combine with the IB range plus the weekday. So it is not obvious how my time settings change as those rules are cascading and individual for a certain situation. To make it more difficult - this includes end of month, holiday (incl. US) and time of very important news to suppress risk during that volatility (stop loss setting etc.).
Of course I am watching where the price is in the chart 1d, 1h, 30m - using Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (which you see in all my charts). When the price is in the KUMO there is a good chance that we see no direction. But if it is far outside and turns direction, then you can see how FAR it may wander through the KUMO in the next period. That is also part of the trading system I am using to omit losses. So last Thursday I did not take a trade because of such a situation.
If you see my given trades of the last 10 days then you see a large difference to yours - yes?
Your goal must be to find such recurring patterns in timeline. With those you will enhance your guiding parts to add some more - and "zack!" you will have the door open!
The proof of my trades you can see in my journal when every trade is described while evolving. With a pre trade description of the actual situation as well as the description of some breaking events during a trade.
Good trades
GFIs1
PS: Most "systems" work only for a certain time and stop suddenly to be positive. If I watch my journal here since 2012 I had all years a positive result. That is for the GFIs1 trading system as well for the high vola "Walzer system that came later. Looks good as I had not to change my rules because of change in the economies.
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Thank you @GFIs1 for your input.
I have been following your journal for >1,5 years, read all posts and made a small study of it. It is the base for this journal, so I really appreciate your input. Your ongoing results are what we all want I am far from there with this journal It’s a work in progress and time will tell.
I will look again at the gap/range cross, very clear now. Special treatment for holidays, last of month, triple witch, etc is clear (well, it’s clear to exclude them from the ‘normal’ days, not yet how to trade them). I also found some other details in your post above that gave some direction, great.
I have been looking at Ichimoku. From reading your thread/journal it became clear how predictable this sometimes can be; very impressive. Ichimoku is not taken into consideration in this journal (yet!?), but maybe in the future.
Thanks again
Deetee
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There are many paths to a stable system - but it needs often some "mettre les mains dans la pâte" - aka dirty hands. You will find the way for sure - good luck!
GFIs1
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In the Monday files, when I add filters on IBS, on ‘No gap’ and IB 9:30 position inside prior day Hi/Lo, the long trades look good (994 pts, 69 win/43 loss).
After adding filter on prior day HL range, the long trade gives 710 pts, 29 win/17 loss for the same entry/exit/SL.
DAX Long trade
Entry 12:00 @ 14089
Exit 14:00 @ 14103
SL 35 pts
Result 14 pts
Historical results with this setup:
710 pts (29 win/17 loss)
Let's see
edit 14:50: At 12:00, entering a long position didn't seem like a good idea, but it ended up with a small winner
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). In case (for example) a long trade is triggered for the morning and a short trade for the afternoon, I might take 2 trades, but I expect that to be exceptional. All trades start between 9:30 and 12:00 and exit between 10:00 and 15:30 (on the open and close of a 30 minute bar on the FDAX), with a SL 5 to 60 
