Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
This is an interesting chart - thank you for posting. But if I'm reading this correctly, the outcome (outer ring) ranges described in the legend have a lot of overlap. So in the event that the market is, say, down -1.1%, it would be both blue and red? In which case the sum of outcomes would exceed 100% of observations. Or am I reading this wrong?
Hi Schnook,
Indeed these IB categories overlap. I use these categories during the 1st 30 minutes that the market is open, to see if within these categories a trade would need to start at 9:30. If not, I wait for 9:30, so I can enter a more accurate range for the IB, and then see if there is a nice statistical outcome for a trade.
Let me have a look at exceding the 100%; didn't think about that. But you must be right.
>>
Ok, I had a look. For the pie chart, the category ranges total 100%. I guess the chart is dividing the total bucket into the category ranges.
But you are right about the overlap.
I'm using these 'default' ranges, because during IB the price keeps on going up and down all the time, and I don't want to/can't change every few seconds the ranges.
BTW, the category values are based on the number of points that IB OC has, divided by the 40 day average of the IB OC. So, -1,1 would say that IB OC is 10% bigger (more down) than the 40 day average value. The 40 day average is just a dynamic number I am using, could have been 60, 100, or ...
FDAX Gap: No
Gap closed: -
Position price at 9:30: Inside
IB direction: Short
Last Friday had an extreme (top 5%) value for the prior day OC (-293pts).
Not fully sure how (which filters) and if to trade these. I will work on this today.
A long trade from 10:00 - 13:00 looks good, but only based on 11 historical trades. I won't take it as I don't have rules set yet.
FESX, same story, different nice looking trade: Long 11:00 - 13:00, based on 9 historical trades, which I also won't count here.
FDAX Gap: Up 122pts
Gap closed: No
Position price at 9:30: Above
IB direction: Long (extreme range)
DAX Short trade
Entry 11:00 @
Exit 11:30 @
SL 32 pts
Result .. pts
Historical results with this setup:
194 pts (11 trades/win% 100%)
100%, so a guaranteed winner, right? Let’s see
FESX: Long 9:30 - 11:00 SL16pts
edit 9:54: I see now, that at 11:00 a German economical number is released (ZEW), which could influence the trade. I guess a good positive number could break the trade and a good negative make the trade...
edit 11:00: FDAX Trade cancelled due to high ZEW number
Today the DAX jumped up as we both have predicted. The numbers 11:00 were just underneath the 15700 line - which 'of course' had to been touched at least.
I think the turning point for a correction is still the 10:30 to 11:00h - as my system previews.
So far I am still relaxed
Thanks @GFIs1, it's always better and gives more confidence to be on your trading direction instead of trading against it...
ZEW number was 29,9 while the forecast was 25,1, and my trade would only run 30 minutes, so not much time for recovery, so I decided to cancel. In the end, nothing much happened, would have been 6 pts loss.
It's interesting, the same patern seems to take place in NQ right now.
Similar trades are suggested from my system, with entry at '11:30' (well, that's after the 5th 30m bar, so 18:00 CET and SL15 means 15% of the ATR 14d):
10 trades is not the best and neither is 62 pts, but 100% is. Interesting at least.
edit: Well, that wouldn't have worked out. Still grinding up slowly.
Let’s see
