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Rogue MNQ 2/21 Journey


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Rogue MNQ 2/21 Journey

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  #1 (permalink)
Tampa Bay , FL
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jan 2021
Thanks: 7 given, 5 received

Bear with me on my ramble/ introduction to this great community. Begrudgingly Id be classified as part of the covid trader class for essentially starting in March. Luckily I was able to dedicate 100% of my time predominantly in sponge mode while attempting to self direct my IRA & play with my spare change. After doing the usual rudderless bouncing around of dabbling with biotechs vaccine plays to realizing I dont have the budget to safely do options correctly. Around september 2020 I began just targeting the SPY only. Had success until I was on the wrong side of the October/blue wave. Around December I started researching futures & combines, challenges etc.

January I decide Im ready to test myself with 2 different programs lol, mainly thinking Id stay with ES /MES. Welp after discovering I dont quite have the patience for ES/MES & admittedly an edge. I thought heck whats this NQ beast I hear about. Again Im not there yet to even touch the NQ; especially after blowing up the SIM accounts in the various prop firms. After resetting , honing my play/style , slowing it down as best as I can via PnF/ renkos I feel confident to keep trying with the MNQ. Adjusting my scalping net as necessary.

After realizing I was making the typical emotional mistakes. Ive decided to limit my trades to 6 a day because of commissions & to wait for optimal setups. As well as make it conditional. Sticking with 3 lot max but deciding to stick with 1-2 & only rewarding myself with 3 at a time after consecutive wins. Not sure if this is too big but found 7pt/28tick stop loss to capture the wobble but honestly would love to tighten it up but NAS experience isn't there yet.

Entering Feb Ive cancelled my memberships & decided to open an account to sim/dabble in the MNQ. Partially my fault for changing my mind on using an existing LLC (thanks FIO thread / greentradertax) & now just opening a regular account with a well known brokerage has continued to be an utter headache for 2 weeks. Again partially my fault for over complicating it, as of Friday afternoon I think they've properly translated my "gibberish". So I think Ill stay with them but looking at tradovate too. Realistically just want to learn a platform with reasonable commissions & stick with it.

Goal is to establish a repeatable strategy that fits ME, & become a funded trader too.

Former auto technician, Hazmat driver/ trainer guru for a propane company, BNB superhost - Currently regular Landlord/ self employed courier.

Is this where I say, " lets go"?! My other favorite part of the last year is the ridiculous behavior on fintwit. Thankful for the genuine few the try to lead us newbs to the various watering holes/niches.

Cheers!

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  #2 (permalink)
Tampa Bay , FL
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jan 2021
Thanks: 7 given, 5 received

Day 1 of using Tradovate SIM. I took 7 total trades today, but 2 were flat practice swings with this platform for the first time. All with MNQ. Although I broke a few of my own personal time limit rules that are usually to allow for the trades to play out; I admittedly closed them out early due to the chop/multitasking.

4w/1L - The loss I shorted at 9:57 13666.25 didnt collect when it went my way. Then it rallied somehow I either turned off my stop loss Or forgot it, once it consolidated back to its normal range. I added 3 more at 13677 -10:06. & was impatient due to holding 6 contracts. Closed it out at 69.5 at 10:13. Had I held I would of collected my 30-40 pt target. Next time I should just scale out. But at this point I considered it a loss since I was in over 10 mins- most of that being wrong/wasting time to break even. Luckily I realized it was fading the opening range & hopped back in at 10:18 13667 for a quick 5min 14pt scalp.

Most of my trades today were under 5mins, Only 2 being over 9mins. Plan is to be more precise with my entries to maximize the 10-20 mins of risk exposure. Im sure this will evolve but for now this is my sweet spot.

Feel like SIM fills are suspicious , guess time will tell.

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  #3 (permalink)
Tampa Bay , FL
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jan 2021
Thanks: 7 given, 5 received


So 2/10 was a drawdown day (-290) with the funny money. I over traded while trying to experiment with Tradovates software. So most of my big gains got stopped before I could remove the trailing stop. Go figure on the NQ/MNQ. Also was chasing to get back in the green. Ended up 38% profitable. Over 30-50 trades of ugly choppy scalps. Realistically I should sat on my hands after going up a hundy. Which might be something I incorporate until Im in a reasonable consistent zone.

2/11 Today an hour later or so since my last trade- Ive sat on my hands after taking 5/5 wins in row in the MNQ for over $500 sim coinage. Obviously this makes me feel extremely over confident, but Ive also gotten to the point that the more I trade its more likely that I give some back. Not sure if this is good approach for my first year in/ barely 2 months in futures land but mentally trying to condition myself with real money aspects/ build confidence.

#1- I scaled up to 4 MNQ around 13720 short @ 847am exited 712 858am. Being this close to the open I was hesitant to stay in it longer wanted to protect my gains.

#2 Scaled up to 6short - 720 -728-730, Right around 928-930am. Like a crazy person. decided to adjust stops - remove the trailing demon.
Exited around 709-706 @ 935.

#3/4 were flat wins I didnt like & hopped out quickly.

#5- Scaled in 3 @ 13725 , 3 @ 13734.5 at 946am during its weak push up, Scaled out between 13714-13705 @ 9:51am.

Seeing the volume profile helped alot but honestly I prefer to stay out until 10. Guess that might be a sporadic rule to tweak as time goes on.

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  #4 (permalink)
Tampa Bay , FL
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jan 2021
Thanks: 7 given, 5 received

I ended last week positive in my sim account despite the over trading that I need to slow down on. Locked in an ugly 52% of trades & failed to be profitable during the power hour to close, was fighting the trends. I need to move on from losers quicker.

I spent a chunk of time over the weekend looking closely at Monday - WED MNQ sessions on 1000 tick chart, maybe nothing new but feel like my 25-40 point "fishing net" targets are reasonable. My plan going forward is to adjust my NET depending on the overnight/day sessions volatility. Normal lol (maybe normal for 2020s) 25-30 points waves off the MNQ are plentiful. 40 point swings happen a lot too but my experience is the limiting factor in capturing the move fully. Unless its 150+- day, then 40 point waves tend to keep rippling but also tightening up as it stabilizes. So if I have the stomach to hop in during a day like last Wednesday, Id be wise to go after one maybe 2 ripples & then sit on my hands during the remainder of its consolidating.

Again time will tell if I can transfer these observations & act upon them in real time.

Looks like Im joining the tradovate platform. Loving their software & customer service!

Achievement trophies are temporarily nice when staring at the red.

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  #5 (permalink)
Rovigo (ITALY)
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart, MotiveWave
Broker: Rithmic, Dorman, Interactive Brokers
Trading: Emini, Nasdaq, DAX, Bund, IBEX
 
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RogueJoules View Post
So 2/10 was a drawdown day (-290) with the funny money. I over traded while trying to experiment with Tradovates software. So most of my big gains got stopped before I could remove the trailing stop. Go figure on the NQ/MNQ. Also was chasing to get back in the green. Ended up 38% profitable. Over 30-50 trades of ugly choppy scalps. Realistically I should sat on my hands after going up a hundy. Which might be something I incorporate until Im in a reasonable consistent zone.

2/11 Today an hour later or so since my last trade- Ive sat on my hands after taking 5/5 wins in row in the MNQ for over $500 sim coinage. Obviously this makes me feel extremely over confident, but Ive also gotten to the point that the more I trade its more likely that I give some back. Not sure if this is good approach for my first year in/ barely 2 months in futures land but mentally trying to condition myself with real money aspects/ build confidence.

#1- I scaled up to 4 MNQ around 13720 short @ 847am exited 712 858am. Being this close to the open I was hesitant to stay in it longer wanted to protect my gains.

#2 Scaled up to 6short - 720 -728-730, Right around 928-930am. Like a crazy person. decided to adjust stops - remove the trailing demon.
Exited around 709-706 @ 935.

#3/4 were flat wins I didnt like & hopped out quickly.

#5- Scaled in 3 @ 13725 , 3 @ 13734.5 at 946am during its weak push up, Scaled out between 13714-13705 @ 9:51am.

Seeing the volume profile helped alot but honestly I prefer to stay out until 10. Guess that might be a sporadic rule to tweak as time goes on.

great job! yes, I have been trading for several years and I confirm that trading around the open in Nasdaq can be a financial suicide.
Also, if I can give you an advice: 6 contracts of the NAsdaq is an awful lot of money. In notional value it is around 1.6 Millions dollars. If market moves against you just 2% you would be losing 33K USD.
If you trade around the open, use one contract it should be more than enough. ....personally I never trade before 10am

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  #6 (permalink)
Tampa Bay , FL
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jan 2021
Thanks: 7 given, 5 received

Yep totally understand that on the NQ, hence only touching the micros until consistency is established. Will be just doing 1-2 at a time. Up to 6 is what I set up as my max position size for now.

Any stop loss advice with the NAS?

I keep trying with 7-10 point/ 28-40 tick loss with mixed results. On the fence with keeping this range as part of my plan, but I believe its critical to have.

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  #7 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Ilsede, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Rithmic / CQG / Ninja Trader Brokerage
Trading: NQ
 
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RogueJoules View Post
Yep totally understand that on the NQ, hence only touching the micros until consistency is established. Will be just doing 1-2 at a time. Up to 6 is what I set up as my max position size for now.

Any stop loss advice with the NAS?

I keep trying with 7-10 point/ 28-40 tick loss with mixed results. On the fence with keeping this range as part of my plan, but I believe its critical to have.


From my experience, at least a 7-10 points stop loss is a good starting point, depending on the time frame you're using.

So for example, if you're scalping a few points on inflection points, you might go with an even smaller stop, but if you're trading trend continuations at pullbacks, a minimum stop loss of 7-10 points would be my recommendation, but still depending on volatility (e.g. around the open, you might need a wider stop).

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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  #8 (permalink)
Rovigo (ITALY)
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart, MotiveWave
Broker: Rithmic, Dorman, Interactive Brokers
Trading: Emini, Nasdaq, DAX, Bund, IBEX
 
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Posts: 385 since Feb 2018
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RogueJoules View Post
Yep totally understand that on the NQ, hence only touching the micros until consistency is established. Will be just doing 1-2 at a time. Up to 6 is what I set up as my max position size for now.

Any stop loss advice with the NAS?

I keep trying with 7-10 point/ 28-40 tick loss with mixed results. On the fence with keeping this range as part of my plan, but I believe its critical to have.

The stop I use depend a lot on volatility, when volatility is high I just let it settle and I normally use a stop of 10 to 15 points for a normal to high volatility and 8 to 12 points for lower volatility.
When volatility subsides you can be quite precise on the entry usign 5 min. candles.

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  #9 (permalink)
Tampa Bay , FL
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jan 2021
Thanks: 7 given, 5 received

Welp this week was a wash. Held over the long weekend to start the hole, definitely wont do that again. Had plenty of personal distractions that got in the way. Wednesday I felt invincible by around 1130am. Humble train arrived on Thursday & most of Friday I didn't feel focused until about 2pm when I was still down $700. Managed to scalp my way back to -15 at the close of the session.

I however did adjust my stop loss & that seemed to help, but still need to work on waiting to snipe a scalp as opposed to algo dancing. Thanks for that suggestion.

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  #10 (permalink)
Tampa Bay , FL
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jan 2021
Thanks: 7 given, 5 received


Today was fun, not done yet. But traded the rest of the drop volatility from 8-10am in my SIM account. After seeing approximately 80% (Over 10 trades) go my way & locked in. I decided hell Ill go live & try it for the first time. Mind you Ive only been testing the future waters for about 2 months.

1018-1035- 2 quick trades 12 & 16 pt scalp in the MNQ. 1 at a time in micro land, living large!

Then from 1040-1140 my next 4 all wrong/stopped out even after foolishly adjusting my 12pt stop loss. How can this be !?! lol. I know a few reasons/excuses but will definitely say I could feel the difference internally between real money/Paper trade land of demos/prop firm tests.

First Im gathering too much info causing hesitation or analysis paralysis while trying to be clever with 4-6 charts. Gathering from TOS & tradovate. Slightly different layouts but based on same look back. BUT strike 1!

I was attempting to do scalps off 1000 tick chart but then flip flopping to 1min/2min. Strike 2!

While cross referencing against a 5 min , Range & flip flopping between the newly acquired TPO from Tradovate & P&F. Strike 3!

To me if I decide that 2 charts line up for my "direction" Im second guessing because of 3rd or 4th is giving me doubt & then what I did initially see has blown past my entry point.

So my plan is to Just focus on the 5 min & not mess with anything shorter than that. I know today is the Covid anniversary drop & Jerome day making it more tricky. But my previous track record says I shouldn't try the faster time frames for awhile. Also managing my IRA adding to the hesitation. Meanwhile algos took my lunch money!

Will observe the rest of the action & try another 6 tomorrow with a clear mind.

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  #11 (permalink)
Tampa Bay , FL
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jan 2021
Thanks: 7 given, 5 received

This is my 3rd week recap of using Tradovate, SIM. Ultimately for the week I locked in 55.48%. I didn't do the recommended recording of all the trades because I feel using the simulated part of the equation is hard to justify. However I did see the value of doing it when I kept my trade count low. For the week it says 283 trades. Im guessing I scaled in and out of 90+.

For Friday I seemed to be on point, locking in 65% from about 11-15 scaled trades. Definitely attribute some of the success to the TPO charts. I wish I would of watched the most recent webinar live but I caught the recap. Explained/ confirmed some details I was starting to uncover. I highly recommend others that are new or haven't had access to TPO to watch it.

Also tinkering with intraday crossover signals but its more on me to piece it together with time of day & other variables. As far as the stop loss conundrum goes, based on last weeks volatility; I went naked with zero protection. Obviously Id get margin tap if I wasnt careful in real life. So by friday afternoon I felt confident to jump in for power hour on my live account. Well I was successful on all 5 trades. I greedily entered a fifth trade but sensed the setup wasn't materializing to collect the target I was aiming for. So I exited barely positive to end the rough week on a high note. When I went live with real money on the line, I couldn't risk not having a stop loss. So adjusted it on the fly based on my comfort level. It ranged from 15-20pts on Friday afternoon. Ideally Id like to keep it at 7-12pts but last week was insane.

So 5 for 5 in 25mins, Of those - 3 were perfect in keeping my risk exposure to a minimum. Under 4 mins & collecting 20-25pts.

Goal going forward is to lock in 60% or more weekly, maintain confidence in entries to capture the bigger move. Translation - have patience for the 30-60 pt moves. To overshadow the losses/fees. Im sure eventually these big volatility sweeps will end but until then I want my mind & net ready to collect.

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