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Trading Journal -- Abev USA


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Trading Journal -- Abev USA

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  #1 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 6 given, 6 received

Here's the beginning of my futures.io trading journal. Using my own algos in Easy Language, I've entered swing trades (average hold of 7 trading days) off and on (mainly off) for about twenty years with moderate success. For the past nine months I've been trading full time -- or better said, I've sat at my station six to ten hours a day learning, charting, occasionally trading, etc. On Dec. 22nd, 2020 I started actually entering one to two trades each day, from picking the stocks to recording and posting to my white board the PnL for each trade. I'm a fervent believer in journaling but think it may be a more powerful tool if it is made public. So here's today's entry

February 2, 2021
Strategy, Day trade pullback at open. TLRY looked like a good set up for either a swing trade and the pre market setup also looked good for a day trade out of the open. Initial candle broke the previous day's high and subsequent candle confirmed the trend but just barely. Since the confirmation was weak, I waited until the bottom of the retracement and added position on the way back up. Fumbled the first order entry so entered again to a cost basis of exactly as planned. Unfortunately I missed my third entry point which would have been 1/2 of my full position (I scaled in slowly on this trade.)

Sold 1/2 of the position for +3% as price make HoD at a major Support: Resistance
(S/R) line. Waited through a pull back and the sold other 1/2 at +2% as the retry at HoD failed.

I was not as quick on the trades as I would have liked, fumbled all three entries, and did not have a clearly stated (written) idea of an exit for the second 1/2 of my position.

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  #2 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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February 3, 2021 Abev Trading Journal
HEXO - watch for break of 8 as it may run after the whole $ break
POWW Set stop @D20ema

Long on CBAT at open to start a possible swing. Wedge @D20ema and a nice pm gap might mean a nice pop at open for a momentum trade. Bought on pull back from pm high of 8.14. Scaled in at 7.95 and 7.75. Not following R-PB strategy; a pure bull flag break play. Set stop just below 7.50 as SPY was trending down on the 5m and falling below the previous day's low. CBAT Beta = 3.4 to boot.

Closed out of HEXO long swing at +17%

Scaled out 1/4, 1/3, and remainder of POWW all at +14.xx% within roughly a forty minute period. After lunch volume never came to push the action. Got out just in time as price took a dive on the candle immediately following the closing exit.

Picked up a swing right at the close that fit a lot of my criteria. This is a bit careless. The Daily chart is only strong from the beginning of January so the trade may not work. I got in just under the descending trend line. Starter share and a tight stop. Will see what needs to be done in the AM.

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  #3 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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February 3, 2021 Abev Trading Journal
OK, hope I'm doing the journaling correctly -- adding a new day's journal by simply hitting "Reply" to yesterday's journal entry.

FTFT - Looked interesting yesterday but my mis-givings regarding the strength of the chart proved out and I was stopped out of the trade early on in the day. Still worth the try; still figuring out this new strategy. Worse was the fact that I did not set the stop last night when I entered but left it to this AM and, yep, I forgot to set the stop. Got distracted by the setup of the next trade and it almost got away from me. Minimal damage but I must set those stops if I'm going to focus elsewhere. Lack of stops is becoming a habit.

AVXL - Found this nice setup out of the blue -- was not on one of my watch lists but was mentioned in one of the chat rooms I sit in during trading hours. Looked good, the setup worked like a charm, scaled cautiously twice 1/3, 1/3 full size. Never got confirmation for the last third. Got confirmation for the first 1/2 to scale out, the price action stalled and I got a bit uncomfortable for about thirty minutes, and then received confirmation from the price action to take another 1/4. I want to leave 1/4 and set a b/e stop but I don't ever get around to it -- just take the profits. The profits put me over my week's goal so that was nice but if I'd hung on, I would have made an additional 2 pts!!!! And that would have been VERY nice.

No trades until Monday now. Wait for cash to clear from trades in my cash account and for PDT allocations to give me a trade in my margin account. It's been a good week.

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  #4 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Well.... ugh. Had just enough resources to enter a tiny day trade.

Took a tiny long position in SNAP about six minutes after opening bell. I followed what seemed to be the correct set of rules but the R-PB strategy leaves open several opportunities to take a different branch and I took one that ended with a stop loss of the entire position. The good part is that I lost just $80 to find something about the strategy that deserves backtesting.

There is a point were a pull back can come to a % that triggers a stop loss at full size, or, I can use the 10M13ema or the VWAP. I believe that the initial price action out of the open gives a clear indication of which actions should be taken several minutes later in the trade. I've run across the price action before but it always worked out. If the backtesting works out the way I hope, then I will have some clear probabilities to work with instead of gambling with a guess.

In the screen shot the chart is on the 3M timeframe, the white trend line is VWAP and the Yellow is is the 10M13ema. The Fibonacci can key off the VWAP or the 10M13ema. In this case it is keying off VWAP. When price rises quickly, the 10M13ema is left far outside the area of action described by the Fibonacci lines. At this point I have scaled in to a full position entering at 58.78, 57.78, and 56.99 (the middle three lines) and stopped out when the second red candle touched 56.77 (the bottom white line).




If I brought the 10M13ema closer to the action area by keying the Fibonacci lines to the 10m13ema, I would still be holding and waiting to start scaling out when the price action reached 58.57 at the dark purple line.




Assuming I made the above adjustment, I would have still been holding a full position for the change to the 10M time frame as dictated by decreasing volume , and been able to ride at least the last 1/4 of a position to what eventually ended up being around 61 or 62 -- a 7.5% gain. I have to back test this over the weekend to see if it's for real or just wishful thinking.



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  #5 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Feb 8, 2021

PLTR - played the pull back bouce off the 10m13ema and added on the way backup. couldn't get much out of it -- finished with an underwhelming +1.25%. But green is green so...

Entered FTFT late -- my trigger for a long entry was 6.02 and I didn't get in until a pull back on the 5m at 6.50

I don't see much for 2/9.... maybe if the SPY remains strong but more likely not until Wednesday.

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  #6 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Feb 9, 2021 No trades made.

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  #7 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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February 10, 2021
Unfortunately entered into several positions just before the SPY broke down to and through the VWAP taking my positions in WIMI and OPEN along with it. Tried to take advantage of the dip in FTFT which was mirroring SPY at the time but set my stop very tight and was fine when I stopped out. Down OPEN -3.5% (that's an unforgivable paralysis in triggering a stop loss); WIMI - 1% (that's more like it -- break out or bail out111) and FTFT - 1.73%

I've now three strategies that I'm attempting to play in any given day. Too many. My attention -- particularly pre-market -- gets scattered. I had twelve stocks on watch at the open. No way am I able to keep up with twelve stocks and the indexes. So.... back to a single strategy that was making me consistently profitable before I started developing the other two strategies. Then (fully) develop, back test, and live test one new strategy at a time.

Not going to trade tomorrow and likely not on Friday with the tree day weekend coming up. So Tuesday is my next trading day. Will do what I can to develop M-20BO strategy. Just that one, and catch up on making sure I'm still following the R-PB strategy -- perhaps I can get in a set of backtests of R-PB modifications I've wanted to try. That'd be nice.

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  #8 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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February 11 2021 Took the day off

February 12th
No trades -- just looking for setups for next week for the M20BO strategy

Tell - expanding vol past three days & at a break point for a long at roughly 4.10 with a window to about 6.50
LAC - Possible break > 22.05 with a potential for 28 or so
ALGM - Possible break > 31.57 with potential to about 34.60 or so

TRIX - IPO strategy > 27.20

Ended up entering swings at the end of the day for the following
TELL LGHL VRAY

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  #9 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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February 16 2021

Worked the weekend to create a better scanner for the M20BO and was able to work around the limitations set by my unwillingness to pay for a "better" datafeed -- I still get as many as 100 tickers so plenty of space in which to work.

Swing trades taken:
TELL - Mid day and holding despite a nose dive in the Market (SPY QQQ IWM)

I moved the stop around a bit struggling to find a comfortable balance etween an acceptable R:R and a support level for said R:R Decided that if TELL could move through the 4.50 level there was little resistance til 6.85 or so. If a minimum R:R is 1:2 then risk 0.40 for reward 3.00 was good. That placed the stop at 3.44 which was a descending daily support.

LGHL - Same story as TELL with the weak market. I missed an exit pre-market but I don't trade pm so all is good. Stop is at 200sma descending which is right above the ascending 20ema and the price action has been faithful to the 20ema since Jan 2020 so that looks good

VRAY - I'd entered as per the strict rules of the new M20BO strategy so the stop is placed using the same set of rules -- i.e. just below the 20ema. M20BO often dictates an entry that is just above the descending accelerated trend line so I'm very comfortable with this stop. R:R is between 1:2 and 1:8 so good potential.

CBAT - entered a swing with just a few minutes of the day left also using the M20BO strat.

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seattle washington
 
 
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February 17 2021

Totally f'd up the management of CBAT. 1st, for whatever reason I could not get a trade to go through pre-market. Since I rarely trade pm I have no idea why orders would not go through or when that started. I spent about 45 minutes looking for the config that would let me trade pm. Everything seemed like it was setup to allow pm orders but nothing worked so I couldn't get the +14% on CBAT and it opened at around +8% from my entry and I went to exit 1/3 as it started down and got +6% but I'd not deleted one of my pm attempts at getting orders to fill pm and it triggered and took me flat at + 8% -- i.e. right at the bell and seconds before I took the 1/3. So still green until....

The price reversed and went backup to the resistance at 9.00. 9.05 was the resistance I felt was a potential for a hard break to the long side so at 9.14 I figured it was holding/consolidating and entered. I think it got to 9.15 and then dropped to take me out at 8.14 wiping out all my profits from the first trades. Sooooo poooorly managed.

VRAY and TELL are down but holding at midday. Market is wavering and I really don't want to move my stops above the resistance levels where they belong so I'm sticking with the plan and if all my stops get hit... I'll have an ugly down day.

LHGL -- well managed scaling out at roughly +5% +10% and +20%

I'm hoping for the Market to be bought back up this afternoon or tomorrow morning as has been the tendency lately. Must get more aggressive on my M20BO entries so that the stops are not so far away and the first exit is not so close. Take more entries since the tight exits will allow more failed breakouts while keeping the potential for a 3:1 W:L ratio on that strategy.. And for f's sake do not enter into strength and for sure have a clear stop loss figured out BEFORE entering -- and use it. I'm soooooo pissed about CBAT....

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seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Feb 18 2021
TELL - took a look at the chart after exiting at a loss and I see that I entered too late. If I'd been on top of my plan I would have entered the previous day at about 47 cents less than the actual entry of 3.87. The go-to strategy is M20BO which is a simple breakout strategy and the success depends upon some sort of a surge that will lift the price far enough a way from the entry to give the trade time to breath. I entered well into the surge (though there was not much of a surge) so I didn't get far from the stop loss. All depending, I well set the stop loss at a R:R from the entry and hoped for return based upon S/R levels. The Stop loss is calculated and slightly adjusted to take into account any S/R that happen to be in the vicinity of the calculated stop loss.

Curious observation worth investigating. Between MC and TWS there is often a rather large discrepancy in price action. MC which I use for charting and TWS which I use for scanning and order entry get data from the same broker and I assume from the same exchange. However, today I noticed several candles that were way different between the charts of the two platforms. I'm talking $0.26 difference in a stock that trades in the $20 range. That's a huge difference and is only one of many smaller differences. Same datafeed same broker same time frame, and yes. same ticker -- different price. Needs looking into considering that I rely upon trend lines and S/R levels defined by price.

It may be time to start looking at the how of hedging using either direct orders of the SPY or options on the stocks themselves.

Exited both TELL and VRAY at a loss. As per the note above, TELL was a larger loss due to the late entry that put the stop farther from the entry than I would have liked. VRAY was played correctly, it was just a loser, that's all.

Took two exits from GSAH at 5% and 14% which wask very nice. Started looking at IPOs for possible swings.

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seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Feb 19 2021
I'm in a fog this AM. Been trying to focus on the daily routine and just kinda a deer in the headlights.

I want to pickup an add to my GSAH position if price comes back to 12.97 or so -- 13 is fine. Looking at IPOs and making a watch list of IPOs of the past year that are also possible candidates for M20BO. There are a few and I want to chart them over the next few weeks(?) or days for sure to see if they perform better/worse/differently than a "normal" M20BO stock.

Taking the rest of the AM off. PDT says 2,2,2,3,3 and I don't want to enter Monday with just one trade. I'd also like the cash to clear in my Cash account. And I'm foggy -- just not with it.

Back. The profit stop on GSAH had triggered at +25% or so. All out of GSAH. Saw an opportunity for a swing with IPOF; entered and had to exit almost immediately -- down to starting Monday with one trade. Arrrgh! Small loss on IPOF.

Took two small starter position for swings at the very end of the day and used the wrong account! The second order did not fill 'cause of how PDT works at my broker (I like it, actually). Because the first trade used my margin account I was unable to re-enter GSAH at a pull back below VWAP Took the second order from my cash account. The two small starters were ok entries; not perfect but starter positions and reasonably low ri$k.

Need to look hard for IPOs to trade. Monday will likely be slow since I only have one trade in the margin account. Second best green week since just before Christmas so I'm reasonably happy.

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seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Entered IPOF and exited at +13.99% and againat 15.68% Very happy with that trade.

Entered a GSAH as it poked above a minor S/R

Attempting to trade too many tickes using too many strategies. Need to stick to no more thatn one strategy and no more than three tickers. Gotta hold it in in order to keep focus

If I could get all my in-play tickers on one screen and on another screen all the hopefuls or maybe just the IPOs that are setting up or perhaps just a place to open the alerts as they happen during the day. Gotta organize my display real estate to give me faster access to stocks that are moving into position. I can't manage more than one or two at a time the way I'm currently organized.

Despite the nice return on IPOF, I realize now it was mostly luck. I didn't really have a plan for the trade. Spose that MIGHT be good in that perhaps I'm getting to the point where some (obvious) trades are now memory muscle(?) -- not going to count on it. I generally take the moment to write down my entry, the stop loss, and the first potential exit that will give me the R:R I need for a good trade.

Second mistake of the day was that (again not stopping to write down the trade) I re-entered GSAH into strength. Not ok as the subsequent price action confirmed. If I'd taken a moment to write my "trade ticket" out I'd have seen there were better places to enter -- the break of 15 was not where a real breakout would be expected.






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  #14 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Feb 23rd

Another down day for the SPY Will likley sit this session out. GSAH tanking. If I see a good place to add, I will

Looking for a place to get out of GSAH. For whatever reason I received a message pre-market that GSAH could only be traded RTH. Odd. At the bell price dove deep and I averaged down. So here's my thinking. GSAH is a SPAC created in September with over a year of life left. No acquisitions have been made so no news has generated the looked for and hoped for price action. Its a Goldman Sachs SPAC and while the big houses fail on occasion, I've told myself that GS will come through with a worthwhile acquisition or two. My cost basis is 13.58 and given that it went well above 16 on no news and a soft market, I feel that any solid news will result in a nice pop to at least allow me to exit b/e.

The downside is the loss of the equity tied up in the trade while I wait. And I may wait for months 'cause it's doubtful the GS will acquire anything or launch a company from the SPAC until the market firms up. So as I wait my account has less and less equity from the drawdown. Mmmmmm what to do what to do.

I'm looking for big winners instead of the base hits that are swing trades. When did that happen? Metrics point to falling off about two weeks ago after two very successful weeks in terms of trade management and near record green. I guess my head got big. This is as bad as over trading. gotta hit that happy medium of managing without being a helicopter trader.

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seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Feb 24th

This GSAH issue has thrown me off my seat. I can't seem to find anything to trade. Mmmmm Better said; I can't focus on finding something to trade. Yet another down side to hanging onto the trade. Came really close to selling. Came within a 1.5 points of b/e. The day ended on a curl up though so I might just luck out. The last two days have touched a flat top while the lows are forming almost a perfect wedge. Tomorrow somethings's going to break.

No trades -- not wise in my frame of mind. All I can think of is GSAH woulda coulda shoulda didn't.

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seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Feb 25th

One small trade to the green. Main concern remained on GSAH. The open tanked the price and unlik the past few days, there was no recovery -- it just continued down. Not ok. I don't think I could lose more than 2.5 additional points but that is a significant hit to my account. I say 2.5 'cause that's "book value" of the SPAC. Not sure if one talks about book value when talking about a SPAC but if the SPAC folds up without ever using the money, all of the current share holders get their money back.

GSAH and the SPY both hit their major S/R areas today and make a small bounce during power hour. I'm looking to hedge against further price decline and use options with the idea that I will have to wait months for the price action I want. I cannot do that until Monday so one more day of just watching. So what's the potential cost and potential gain of an options hedge?

Gotta get to know options.
Screen Shot 02-25-21 at 05.54 PM

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  #17 (permalink)
seattle washington
 
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2019
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Feb 26 2021
Sat on my hands. Market is deciding where it wants to go, up or down and I have no desire to get caught inbetween. No to mention it is Friday, the month end, and just not willing to tie up my equity in trades over the weekend. So Monday is the next day.

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