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Feb 18 2021
TELL - took a look at the chart after exiting at a loss and I see that I entered too late. If I'd been on top of my plan I would have entered the previous day at about 47 cents less than the actual entry of 3.87. The go-to strategy is M20BO which is a simple breakout strategy and the success depends upon some sort of a surge that will lift the price far enough a way from the entry to give the trade time to breath. I entered well into the surge (though there was not much of a surge) so I didn't get far from the stop loss. All depending, I well set the stop loss at a R:R from the entry and hoped for return based upon S/R levels. The Stop loss is calculated and slightly adjusted to take into account any S/R that happen to be in the vicinity of the calculated stop loss.
Curious observation worth investigating. Between MC and TWS there is often a rather large discrepancy in price action. MC which I use for charting and TWS which I use for scanning and order entry get data from the same broker and I assume from the same exchange. However, today I noticed several candles that were way different between the charts of the two platforms. I'm talking $0.26 difference in a stock that trades in the $20 range. That's a huge difference and is only one of many smaller differences. Same datafeed same broker same time frame, and yes. same ticker -- different price. Needs looking into considering that I rely upon trend lines and S/R levels defined by price.
It may be time to start looking at the how of hedging using either direct orders of the SPY or options on the stocks themselves.
Exited both TELL and VRAY at a loss. As per the note above, TELL was a larger loss due to the late entry that put the stop farther from the entry than I would have liked. VRAY was played correctly, it was just a loser, that's all.
Took two exits from GSAH at 5% and 14% which wask very nice. Started looking at IPOs for possible swings.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Feb 19 2021
I'm in a fog this AM. Been trying to focus on the daily routine and just kinda a deer in the headlights.
I want to pickup an add to my GSAH position if price comes back to 12.97 or so -- 13 is fine. Looking at IPOs and making a watch list of IPOs of the past year that are also possible candidates for M20BO. There are a few and I want to chart them over the next few weeks(?) or days for sure to see if they perform better/worse/differently than a "normal" M20BO stock.
Taking the rest of the AM off. PDT says 2,2,2,3,3 and I don't want to enter Monday with just one trade. I'd also like the cash to clear in my Cash account. And I'm foggy -- just not with it.
Back. The profit stop on GSAH had triggered at +25% or so. All out of GSAH. Saw an opportunity for a swing with IPOF; entered and had to exit almost immediately -- down to starting Monday with one trade. Arrrgh! Small loss on IPOF.
Took two small starter position for swings at the very end of the day and used the wrong account! The second order did not fill 'cause of how PDT works at my broker (I like it, actually). Because the first trade used my margin account I was unable to re-enter GSAH at a pull back below VWAP Took the second order from my cash account. The two small starters were ok entries; not perfect but starter positions and reasonably low ri$k.
Need to look hard for IPOs to trade. Monday will likely be slow since I only have one trade in the margin account. Second best green week since just before Christmas so I'm reasonably happy.
Attempting to trade too many tickes using too many strategies. Need to stick to no more thatn one strategy and no more than three tickers. Gotta hold it in in order to keep focus
If I could get all my in-play tickers on one screen and on another screen all the hopefuls or maybe just the IPOs that are setting up or perhaps just a place to open the alerts as they happen during the day. Gotta organize my display real estate to give me faster access to stocks that are moving into position. I can't manage more than one or two at a time the way I'm currently organized.
Despite the nice return on IPOF, I realize now it was mostly luck. I didn't really have a plan for the trade. Spose that MIGHT be good in that perhaps I'm getting to the point where some (obvious) trades are now memory muscle(?) -- not going to count on it. I generally take the moment to write down my entry, the stop loss, and the first potential exit that will give me the R:R I need for a good trade.
Second mistake of the day was that (again not stopping to write down the trade) I re-entered GSAH into strength. Not ok as the subsequent price action confirmed. If I'd taken a moment to write my "trade ticket" out I'd have seen there were better places to enter -- the break of 15 was not where a real breakout would be expected.
Another down day for the SPY Will likley sit this session out. GSAH tanking. If I see a good place to add, I will
Looking for a place to get out of GSAH. For whatever reason I received a message pre-market that GSAH could only be traded RTH. Odd. At the bell price dove deep and I averaged down. So here's my thinking. GSAH is a SPAC created in September with over a year of life left. No acquisitions have been made so no news has generated the looked for and hoped for price action. Its a Goldman Sachs SPAC and while the big houses fail on occasion, I've told myself that GS will come through with a worthwhile acquisition or two. My cost basis is 13.58 and given that it went well above 16 on no news and a soft market, I feel that any solid news will result in a nice pop to at least allow me to exit b/e.
The downside is the loss of the equity tied up in the trade while I wait. And I may wait for months 'cause it's doubtful the GS will acquire anything or launch a company from the SPAC until the market firms up. So as I wait my account has less and less equity from the drawdown. Mmmmmm what to do what to do.
I'm looking for big winners instead of the base hits that are swing trades. When did that happen? Metrics point to falling off about two weeks ago after two very successful weeks in terms of trade management and near record green. I guess my head got big. This is as bad as over trading. gotta hit that happy medium of managing without being a helicopter trader.
This GSAH issue has thrown me off my seat. I can't seem to find anything to trade. Mmmmm Better said; I can't focus on finding something to trade. Yet another down side to hanging onto the trade. Came really close to selling. Came within a 1.5 points of b/e. The day ended on a curl up though so I might just luck out. The last two days have touched a flat top while the lows are forming almost a perfect wedge. Tomorrow somethings's going to break.
No trades -- not wise in my frame of mind. All I can think of is GSAH woulda coulda shoulda didn't.
One small trade to the green. Main concern remained on GSAH. The open tanked the price and unlik the past few days, there was no recovery -- it just continued down. Not ok. I don't think I could lose more than 2.5 additional points but that is a significant hit to my account. I say 2.5 'cause that's "book value" of the SPAC. Not sure if one talks about book value when talking about a SPAC but if the SPAC folds up without ever using the money, all of the current share holders get their money back.
GSAH and the SPY both hit their major S/R areas today and make a small bounce during power hour. I'm looking to hedge against further price decline and use options with the idea that I will have to wait months for the price action I want. I cannot do that until Monday so one more day of just watching. So what's the potential cost and potential gain of an options hedge?
Gotta get to know options. Screen Shot 02-25-21 at 05.54 PM
Feb 26 2021
Sat on my hands. Market is deciding where it wants to go, up or down and I have no desire to get caught inbetween. No to mention it is Friday, the month end, and just not willing to tie up my equity in trades over the weekend. So Monday is the next day.
I must not have hit the "Post" button when I posted this before. but didn't have much to say in any case. I'm changing how I scan and how I breakdown the scans to the best of the best depending upon what resources I have -- i.e. how much cash in my cash account and how much margin in the margin account, etc. I enter both swing trades and day trades and both my accounts are small so I end up juggling the two accounts to get the most trades possible between waiting for cash to clear and not using more than three day trades in any five day period.
Roughly speaking, in the AM I look for day trades in the cash account. At the end of each day I look for swing trades for my margin account.
On Monday I took a swing on OPEN. It fit my swing strategy criteria on the Daily and showed strength all afternoon. Not happy about the fade during the last twenty minutes but not willing to exit.
OPEN. Waited and watched this name all last week waiting for the setup. Got the entry yesterday afternoon. A gap down had me worried up to the open but a few minutes in the volume picked up and I got a nice move up t exit at +5.67% Definitely happy about that trade.
RKT was the day trade. I played the R-PB strategy on the 3M chart. Very conservative strategy. Got in at 28.82 and exited at 29.67 for +2.95% Used a very small size to the $$ amount was not much and if I'd had a larger size the strategy called for scaling out and taking at least 1/4 size up another point. The main point, however, is that the strategy continues to work. Also played with the variables in the strategy regarding how entries and exits react to the M10ema vs VWAP as will using the 3M vs the 10M charts. I again feel that the positioning of the 10M13ema and the VWAP should drive the use of the time chart and which anchor to use . The position of the two MAs should be just under or in the lowest level of the Fib.
F Took a small size later in the day on a dip to start a swing of several days into next week.
Couldn't find anything that I really liked to trade.
RWLK - an alert triggered about an hour into the day. The name looks good for either a swing or a day trade but I'm hoping for a swing. Price broke a confluence of a minor descending resistance and the D20ema after a bounce off a macro ascending support line with daily increase in volume of the past three days. Took a small size 'cause the SPY is below and testing its D20ema. If it decides to move lower I may need to exit.
At the end of the day, RWLK held despite the market day long fade -- so that's encouraging. We will see what happens tomorrow.
