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New Year New Strategy! Here we go...


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New Year New Strategy! Here we go...

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  #1 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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Last year I entered with a terrible strategy. In fact it wasn't much of a strategy at all. I was rude to people who tried to help and I'm sorry for that and that will motivate me this year to KEEP TO MY STRATEGY.

My strategy is an entry based on Bollinger band breakouts system with wide initial stops and targets. Once in a trade I manage the trailing of the stop unless or until it hits the target. The basic idea is the classic trading tenant "cut your losses short and let your winners run."

I have found I am terrible at waiting for entries so I have coded rules for entries and manage trailing stop position manually .

Lets see what happens?

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  #2 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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First day stats. Quite alot of whipsaws due to stops too tight. Could have been better due to and taking an unnecessary loss and missed a winner.

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jmp470
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How are you trading so many times in one day? Iím currently doing 1 - 3 trades in a day and Iím out. That many trades and I would feel whip sawed to death.

How do you feel at the end of a session like that?

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 Sandpaddict 
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jmp470 View Post
How are you trading so many times in one day? Iím currently doing 1 - 3 trades in a day and Iím out. That many trades and I would feel whip sawed to death.

How do you feel at the end of a session like that?

Hello. Yes it looks like that but Im working on reducing that.

The reason is I've coded my entries and I have a filter that knocks me out of trade if goes too fast in opposite direction Im entrering.

So I can have 5 trades on ONE bar before it breaks out or cancels. Thats why my trades are high. Its a trade off. I like cutting losses short. Even if I haven't really given it chance because once I do I like to let it ride.

Hope that makes sense

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 Sandpaddict 
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Todays results.

A good portion of all those trades were a filter I have that exits positions if they exceed a certain limit against the position in a short period of time. I tried reducing the sensitivity but that didn't work, at least without eliminating it, so Im cutting the frequency by capping it. Will see.

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 Sandpaddict 
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Feb 4th


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  #7 (permalink)
qwachu
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Hi Sandpaddict!

Do your strategy based on bollinger bands have something in common with SqueezeBreak indicator?

https://www.mql5.com/en/code/8840

I try to use that to indentify breakout opportunities, but without volume it's lagging little too much.

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  #8 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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qwachu View Post
Hi Sandpaddict!

Do your strategy based on bollinger bands have something in common with SqueezeBreak indicator?

https://www.mql5.com/en/code/8840

I try to use that to indentify breakout opportunities, but without volume it's lagging little too much.

Hello qwachu, no I dont use SqueezeBreak. I keep it super basic. Above a certain higher moving average and bollinger break.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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So far I've been using a trailing stop method. Because I know from testing it, it seems superior to use a static stop. I decided to give it a try.

Live it was a disaster. Seem to hit stop everytime. Could be an unnecessarily bad streak but cant trade what your not comfortable trading so going back to trailing stop even if not optimal in the long run.

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  #10 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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This is sort of a reset of my journal.

I have started a few journals here on futures.io and the main reason I always stop is because I change the way I trade. Slightly here and there and over time it ends up being quite different.

I struggle with starting a new journal now as I usually give up after my strategy seems to change all the time.

Well I like looking back and seeing my progress. Also it gives me perspective on the trajectory I've been on through time.

So I'm continuing this journal for two reasons...

1) I'm one hundred percent LIVE again.

2) Ive realized in the last few months of retrospection and study that I'm an "Always-In" day trader.

Number two has cause me so much grief over the years as I can't figure out why I'm always fighting myself.

Its because I don't believe we can predict the markets.

I don't believe we can pick tops and bottoms consistently.

I don't believe there will EVER be a perfect exit. (I don't mean the lucky ones... although I'll take them )

It also DOES NOT MEAN that I'm ALWAYS in the market. I just means I want to find the dominant trend and find the first way to get on and NOT get out until a change direction. And change direction then and manage trade from there.

I do get whipsawed alot, but... when I hit those trends they do pay for themselves and the losses many times over.

I guess you could say Im breaking even in my trading as I haven't had to add too my account in a long time and thats a plus for me. It goes up it comes down it goes up it comes down. But its not consistently going down.


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  #11 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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So I trade all hours. If I trade I trade. If I'm not I don't. Pretty much that simple.

So here is the results starting with Sunday April 11th.

-25 tick loss.

Good start. Lol

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  #12 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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So yesterday went a little better than Sunday.

Considering the kind of day it was the fact that I was profitable was pretty good and yet it was completely disappointing to me as I missed "playing the range" as I like to call it.

I missed 4 trades... one by one tick!!!

As Im mostly an Always-In trader those ranges can up to as much or more that a big range day.

So instead of catching the ups and downs (which I tried with limit orders) I just held through it all and got out when profitable.

Still an OK day.

+56 tick profit.

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 Sandpaddict 
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Here are the stats...
Sandpaddict View Post
So yesterday went a little better than Sunday.

Considering the kind of day it was the fact that I was profitable was pretty good and yet it was completely disappointing to me as I missed "playing the range" as I like to call it.

I missed 4 trades... one by one tick!!!

As Im mostly an Always-In trader those ranges can up to as much or more that a big range day.

So instead of catching the ups and downs (which I tried with limit orders) I just held through it all and got out when profitable.

Still an OK day.

+56 tick profit.



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 Sandpaddict 
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So yesterday I was upset because I was trying to catch reversals and the market just kept missing my limit orders by a tick or two here and there. Over and over.

Well today I'm on my 7th profitable reversal. Averaging around 12 ticks each. Not bad.

Im in my 8th trade now. Updated later.

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 Sandpaddict 
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I decided to post my chart as well. It might be mess to others but its a thing of beauty to me.

This covers sunday through mid morning April 13th.

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 Sandpaddict 
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In the last chart I posted you can see where my orders were. It was a failed breakdown which I've been playing all day (both failed breakouts and breakdowns)... Yet I went short!?!!

Realizing afterwards that was not the smartest trade I placed another order at the top of the range thinking about the possibility of it reaching the outer bounds, coming back through one more time taking me to profits at the bottom of the range... and maybe beyond?

It DID happen. But exactly in the reverse.

I sold at the bottom sold more at the top of the range as it broke out and never came back.

From there I basically followed the rules and waited for a pullback before exiting.

And because I had such a good morning Im still in the green today... barely.

Really I could have cut as soon as it broke higher but I was waiting for a pullback which never came. Over time this is the right way to trade it for me.

Maybe I could have limit ordered out below as it was running away but I didn't even get enough of a pullback for that. Except for one small exception at the beginning of the move.

The truth of the matter is I never should have taken that short in the first place.

Everything after that I think was OK.

No two trades are identical so we'll have to wait and see. Study and learn.

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 Sandpaddict 
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I trade basically from U.S. time 8am EST till around 11pm EST.

Not all the time but thats my window.

My stats seem to be off the RTH/ETH maybe? Not sure. Will have to watch as confused by this a little as from yesterday morning till the evening I was a little above breakeven for the day.

I know the stats are correct. Just not sure when they reset. Will look into.

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 Sandpaddict 
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With the way I trade patience is a double edged sword... And you have to dance on the tip of it.

I find myself holding BOTH winners and losers too long.

The result is better than jumping in and out but my biggest problem right now I think is not cutting soon enough.

And the reason for that is if I'm in a long trade and the markets going short and not coming back to let me go short I'm...

1) In a losing trade and...

2) and MORE IMPORTANTLY im ALSO losing out on the profits the other way! DOUBLE EDGED again.

As I become more proficient at knowing what a large loss is in comparison to a large win ON AVERAGE is for me and this system I believe I will get better and better.

Lastly I notice I trade ranges mostly and breakouts are my kryptonite IF I'M ON THE WRONG SIDE (they are my big money makers otherwise).

But as an "Always-In" trader I have to take some heat sometimes. Back to the double edge sword analogy.

Things are good though.

DON'T CHANGE YOUR STRATEGY!

TRUST YOURSELF AND THIS SYSTEM.

Its finally working!




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 bobwest 
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Sandpaddict View Post
This is sort of a reset of my journal.
...
I guess you could say Im breaking even in my trading as I haven't had to add too my account in a long time and thats a plus for me. It goes up it comes down it goes up it comes down. But its not consistently going down.

This is a good result, which is very hard to get to, so congratulations.

I hope the new journal helps you move ahead.

Good luck.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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 Sandpaddict 
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bobwest View Post
This is a good result, which is very hard to get to, so congratulations.

I hope the new journal helps you move ahead.

Good luck.

Bob.

Thank you Bobwest. I appreciate that. Especially coming from you.

I guess I should give it some gravity as it's been years of just barely treading and losing repeatedly.

It's nice as my strategy is finally comfortable for me. I trust when I'm down ill be back.

I know when I'm wrong or trading badly now because I know where my profits and losses come from.

I'm trading super small but working on consistency now.

Thank you for your kind words.

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 Sandpaddict 
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New instrument (MYM) and terrible over trading. Not a good combo.

I caught myself in the wrong side of the market and reversed with it almost everytime in the wrong direction.

This is a problem and at times unavoidable but this was pure bad trading. Why? Because I should have taken a loss at some point and traded the opposite side of the channel.


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 Sandpaddict 
Langley
 
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I am trying to keep this journal going as as I think this well be the KEY to reminding myself NOT to change my strategy!

IT WORKS! But NOT if i keep changing it!

This is great. I re-read it and told myself not to change my strategy!

Like two posts later... I switched to YM!?!! What! I haven't traded the Dow in years.

Thats not part of the plan. Weekend research. Sure go crazy. But stick to the plan. Day in and day out.

Live daily profits will NOT come from switching strategies. It will only come from the application of discipline to stick to the strategy.

I used to be able to hold a loser for 46 days yet take profits as soon as I could get 12 cents.

Theres nothing magical here. The reason your fighting yourself is fear/greed/hope.

You FEAR this strategy will not hold up like the hundreds of others. Thats why you look for new ones. You fear failing and getting kicked out of the game... for good.

Your GREED pushes you to do stupid things like chase every little idea that sounds promising because you want it easy and consistent.

Your hoping is probably the worst. Hoping suspendeds the reality that the opposite reality is a possibility. Hoping puts so much emphasis on only one side of the equation you are hopeless if the opposite if what you were hoping happens.

Going through my stats theres ONE UNDENIABLE TRUTH I noticed over time. I suck the most in the beginning of the week and usually get better and have a great Friday.

And I know why. I spend most of my weekends researching ideas. I carry these ideas into my trading. It takes me a few days for those ideas to either not pan out or I revert luckily back to my normal strategy.

Ok its Friday. Im fully trading MES live again only and following my rules and doing very well.

Come on man start next week the same.

Just do the same $&#&@% boring thing day after day!

Maybe I've been trying to be profitable for so long I don't realize I'M THERE!!!

Just trade what you see and STOP CHANGING IT!!!!

Only +19t yesterday. Not great considering the boodbath the day before. But profitable none the less.



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 Sandpaddict 
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Today was a good day but I still am not all that happy as I made a mistake that was completely avoidable.

I still ended up +79 ticks for the day in the mirco S&P but my mistake cost me -28 ticks. Not acceptable.

It was an execution error. I had my finger on the mouse waiting for a signal which never came. My finger had different idea.

The trade went immediately against me and I tried to manage it but it never came back and I cut it at -28 ticks. (Pics below)

In the picture below I circled where I was aready long and wanted to stay long. Only I also thought we might hit resistance there, again which never came but in a twitch of my own fate I was in short.

I tried to manage out but took the loss as that didn't seem a possibility.

+79 ticks for the day.

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 Sandpaddict 
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This is the trade I ment to highlight on the chart.

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 Sandpaddict 
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Stats for Sunday April 18th.

- 20 ticks

It shows a profit of $112.82 because that was the open profit after the -20 tick loss. But none the less it was a -20 tick loss for the session.

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