Last year I entered with a terrible strategy. In fact it wasn't much of a strategy at all. I was rude to people who tried to help and I'm sorry for that and that will motivate me this year to KEEP TO MY STRATEGY.
My strategy is an entry based on Bollinger band breakouts system with wide initial stops and targets. Once in a trade I manage the trailing of the stop unless or until it hits the target. The basic idea is the classic trading tenant "cut your losses short and let your winners run."
I have found I am terrible at waiting for entries so I have coded rules for entries and manage trailing stop position manually .
How are you trading so many times in one day? I’m currently doing 1 - 3 trades in a day and I’m out. That many trades and I would feel whip sawed to death.
How do you feel at the end of a session like that?
The following user says Thank You to jmp470 for this post:
Hello. Yes it looks like that but Im working on reducing that.
The reason is I've coded my entries and I have a filter that knocks me out of trade if goes too fast in opposite direction Im entrering.
So I can have 5 trades on ONE bar before it breaks out or cancels. Thats why my trades are high. Its a trade off. I like cutting losses short. Even if I haven't really given it chance because once I do I like to let it ride.
A good portion of all those trades were a filter I have that exits positions if they exceed a certain limit against the position in a short period of time. I tried reducing the sensitivity but that didn't work, at least without eliminating it, so Im cutting the frequency by capping it. Will see.
So far I've been using a trailing stop method. Because I know from testing it, it seems superior to use a static stop. I decided to give it a try.
Live it was a disaster. Seem to hit stop everytime. Could be an unnecessarily bad streak but cant trade what your not comfortable trading so going back to trailing stop even if not optimal in the long run.
I have started a few journals here on futures.io and the main reason I always stop is because I change the way I trade. Slightly here and there and over time it ends up being quite different.
I struggle with starting a new journal now as I usually give up after my strategy seems to change all the time.
Well I like looking back and seeing my progress. Also it gives me perspective on the trajectory I've been on through time.
So I'm continuing this journal for two reasons...
1) I'm one hundred percent LIVE again.
2) Ive realized in the last few months of retrospection and study that I'm an "Always-In" day trader.
Number two has cause me so much grief over the years as I can't figure out why I'm always fighting myself.
Its because I don't believe we can predict the markets.
I don't believe we can pick tops and bottoms consistently.
I don't believe there will EVER be a perfect exit. (I don't mean the lucky ones... although I'll take them )
It also DOES NOT MEAN that I'm ALWAYS in the market. I just means I want to find the dominant trend and find the first way to get on and NOT get out until a change direction. And change direction then and manage trade from there.
I do get whipsawed alot, but... when I hit those trends they do pay for themselves and the losses many times over.
I guess you could say Im breaking even in my trading as I haven't had to add too my account in a long time and thats a plus for me. It goes up it comes down it goes up it comes down. But its not consistently going down.
Considering the kind of day it was the fact that I was profitable was pretty good and yet it was completely disappointing to me as I missed "playing the range" as I like to call it.
I missed 4 trades... one by one tick!!!
As Im mostly an Always-In trader those ranges can up to as much or more that a big range day.
So instead of catching the ups and downs (which I tried with limit orders) I just held through it all and got out when profitable.
Still an OK day.
+56 tick profit.
The following user says Thank You to Sandpaddict for this post:
So yesterday I was upset because I was trying to catch reversals and the market just kept missing my limit orders by a tick or two here and there. Over and over.
Well today I'm on my 7th profitable reversal. Averaging around 12 ticks each. Not bad.
In the last chart I posted you can see where my orders were. It was a failed breakdown which I've been playing all day (both failed breakouts and breakdowns)... Yet I went short!?!!
Realizing afterwards that was not the smartest trade I placed another order at the top of the range thinking about the possibility of it reaching the outer bounds, coming back through one more time taking me to profits at the bottom of the range... and maybe beyond?
I sold at the bottom sold more at the top of the range as it broke out and never came back.
From there I basically followed the rules and waited for a pullback before exiting.
And because I had such a good morning Im still in the green today... barely.
Really I could have cut as soon as it broke higher but I was waiting for a pullback which never came. Over time this is the right way to trade it for me.
Maybe I could have limit ordered out below as it was running away but I didn't even get enough of a pullback for that. Except for one small exception at the beginning of the move.
The truth of the matter is I never should have taken that short in the first place.
Everything after that I think was OK.
No two trades are identical so we'll have to wait and see. Study and learn.
I trade basically from U.S. time 8am EST till around 11pm EST.
Not all the time but thats my window.
My stats seem to be off the RTH/ETH maybe? Not sure. Will have to watch as confused by this a little as from yesterday morning till the evening I was a little above breakeven for the day.
I know the stats are correct. Just not sure when they reset. Will look into.
With the way I trade patience is a double edged sword... And you have to dance on the tip of it.
I find myself holding BOTH winners and losers too long.
The result is better than jumping in and out but my biggest problem right now I think is not cutting soon enough.
And the reason for that is if I'm in a long trade and the markets going short and not coming back to let me go short I'm...
1) In a losing trade and...
2) and MORE IMPORTANTLY im ALSO losing out on the profits the other way! DOUBLE EDGED again.
As I become more proficient at knowing what a large loss is in comparison to a large win ON AVERAGE is for me and this system I believe I will get better and better.
Lastly I notice I trade ranges mostly and breakouts are my kryptonite IF I'M ON THE WRONG SIDE (they are my big money makers otherwise).
But as an "Always-In" trader I have to take some heat sometimes. Back to the double edge sword analogy.
New instrument (MYM) and terrible over trading. Not a good combo.
I caught myself in the wrong side of the market and reversed with it almost everytime in the wrong direction.
This is a problem and at times unavoidable but this was pure bad trading. Why? Because I should have taken a loss at some point and traded the opposite side of the channel.
I am trying to keep this journal going as as I think this well be the KEY to reminding myself NOT to change my strategy!
IT WORKS! But NOT if i keep changing it!
This is great. I re-read it and told myself not to change my strategy!
Like two posts later... I switched to YM!?!! What! I haven't traded the Dow in years.
Thats not part of the plan. Weekend research. Sure go crazy. But stick to the plan. Day in and day out.
Live daily profits will NOT come from switching strategies. It will only come from the application of discipline to stick to the strategy.
I used to be able to hold a loser for 46 days yet take profits as soon as I could get 12 cents.
Theres nothing magical here. The reason your fighting yourself is fear/greed/hope.
You FEAR this strategy will not hold up like the hundreds of others. Thats why you look for new ones. You fear failing and getting kicked out of the game... for good.
Your GREED pushes you to do stupid things like chase every little idea that sounds promising because you want it easy and consistent.
Your hoping is probably the worst. Hoping suspendeds the reality that the opposite reality is a possibility. Hoping puts so much emphasis on only one side of the equation you are hopeless if the opposite if what you were hoping happens.
Going through my stats theres ONE UNDENIABLE TRUTH I noticed over time. I suck the most in the beginning of the week and usually get better and have a great Friday.
And I know why. I spend most of my weekends researching ideas. I carry these ideas into my trading. It takes me a few days for those ideas to either not pan out or I revert luckily back to my normal strategy.
Ok its Friday. Im fully trading MES live again only and following my rules and doing very well.
Come on man start next week the same.
Just do the same $&#&@% boring thing day after day!
Maybe I've been trying to be profitable for so long I don't realize I'M THERE!!!
Just trade what you see and STOP CHANGING IT!!!!
Only +19t yesterday. Not great considering the boodbath the day before. But profitable none the less.
Today was a good day but I still am not all that happy as I made a mistake that was completely avoidable.
I still ended up +79 ticks for the day in the mirco S&P but my mistake cost me -28 ticks. Not acceptable.
It was an execution error. I had my finger on the mouse waiting for a signal which never came. My finger had different idea.
The trade went immediately against me and I tried to manage it but it never came back and I cut it at -28 ticks. (Pics below)
In the picture below I circled where I was aready long and wanted to stay long. Only I also thought we might hit resistance there, again which never came but in a twitch of my own fate I was in short.
I tried to manage out but took the loss as that didn't seem a possibility.
Been one for the record books since I last posted about two weeks ago.
So after finally breaking even for many weeks I decided to add 5 TIMES the amount I had in my account.
I promptly turned into a complete degenerate gambling junkie losing %20 in a few days! I lost MORE than was in the account before I added!!!!
The $$$ I was able to generate in a short period of time sent my inconsolable amygdala into a buying and selling frenzy leaving me helpless to just sit and watch.
It was almost out of body. As if someone else was controlling my body. Well it was. It was the lizard part of my brain.
One great things about us humans is we have these things called a frontal cortex which enables us (in normal circumstances) to override our primal instincts. Until we get into a fight or flight situation.
I put myself squarely into the "fight" category and went one on one with the market. Stupid. Lose everytime!
Luckily I got my footing back before I heard the deadly... "Finish Him"
Now...
I'm realizing this is not the place for just stats. I have my platforms for that.
This is for LESSONS!
You'll never hear me say something like... the market went to this level stalled... created a bull flag and a secondary pullback to support for a nice second entry long.
The ONLY reason I would ever say that is so I can put my stop tight and I think its going to go higher from here enough for me to make more than I would lose either by a high winrate or larger winners than loosers. But I don't believe ANYONE can predict so again I'll never say that stuff.
To me it's only a description of what has already happened. Thats ALL!
Bottom line... read them, RE-read then read them again. Look how far you've come and the stupid SH!T you repeatedly did for years and don't anymore!
You should be proud of yourself.
Its like going from sim to micros for the first time. You'll f`ck it up. It'll happen when I transition to the minis from the micros as well... guaranteed.
I know this and I somehow stepped right into the chasm anyway. And you will again. So be prepared.
Scale in FARTHER than you ever think necessary. Then a little bit father even then that then add a touch more and double it!
Then do that on the way out as well way after it's gone farther than you ever expected in your direction...
You can always scale out of a position thats going against you in the pullbacks vs getting stopped out on spikes (the worst place to exit) and take profits into spikes.
And FFS save some "arrows in the quiver" for those times when your wrong. And your NEVER right because you just dont know. No one does.
Ok. So once I stopped the bleeding and wrapped the wound I managed to start to turn things around again.
ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS wait for the market to come to you!
If you miss an entry so what. Much much better than regretting missing one than being in one that you regret...
"Better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground".
Also stick with the S&Ps. You can make a profit on ONE tick. Of course that doesn't mean youll be profitable but it does mean you don't have yo rely on big swings to cover costs like the NQ.
So $500 profit with $15 commissions.
$485 day on the micro S&Ps (added another $50 profit before end of day)
Good day but shouldn't be suprising if I am patient and wait for proper entries and far more IMPORTANTLY wait, wait, wait for those larger exits.
See the thing is you only have to find a way to add more profits than losses to the account.
Its just math. I need larger profits than loses because Im not a pattern trader at all and I can time anything worth sh¡t.
Use this journal as your tool for bending your mind back as it gets twisted by the emotions of trading.
Had I been short all day no doubt it could have been a good day.
But thats the game. Can't predict the future. Can only trade the present.
I believe I managed it well as I knew where I was and I didn't come close to looking to undwind the position.
I was looking to undwind near the end of the day when I had a chance to exit my position into spikes.
So it went well as far as that goes.
I'll take a breakeven day anyday over a loss day simply because of the mental damage it can do to your decision making abilities.
Having said that I'm fine with how I handled it.
Also I like the the IB screenshots vs the Ninjatrader screenshots as I can see my trades vs stats which I find need to be reviewed separately. Like on weekends. Micro vs macro.
So I traded a bit yesterday (Sunday) for a couple of points profit but today (Monday) was another pretty good day on the S&P micros.
Below is my day.
$291 - $7.28 in commissions = $283.72. (pic below)
So this really impressed me as I just came off a $550 day (Thurs), a break even day (Friday) and made $40-$50 last night.
I was afraid of over confidence and/or doing something stupid to avoid a loss.
So that was my battleground. I knew if I focused on watching for signs of those emotions predominantly today I would trade alot better.
So I decided to come into it with a choke. I set my entries fewer and farther away. In as much I never came no where even close to my risk per trade max. (My entries were few and far... not alot got hit)
Could I have made more pushing? Buying more contracts? Sure, but who knows in the act of pushing it might have turned out to be the reason I ended with a loss at the end of the day.
I still made $283.72 after fees and commissions. Thats pretty good. No need to push.
ALWAYS LET THE MARKET COME TO YOU!!!
Remember, if you think the market has gone too far or has to turn sometime soon because it's gone so far. Think again. It doesn't have to do sh!t.
Want to enter there? WAIT. Set it to where you dont think it'll go. That's your first entry. Build from there.
HOLD for the bare minimum of your risk. If you can hold longer great.
Want to trail a stop? STOP... WAIT... until your already FAR into profits. Relying on trailing stops will ruin your account as you will cut profits too short on most trades.
Don't be afraid when a trade goes against you! This is a normal part of the equation and you know that.
On the other hand, DON'T scale like an idiot either. Yes, you scale in because who the hell knows where the markets going but PREDETERMINED ENTRIES based on support/resistance is KEY here.
And the main point here is PREDETERMINED... it's not so much the "where" the entries are. If your scaling in long as the market is heading lower in a larger pullback, you hope, you already know where the support is all the way to the point where you would not want to be in long anymore.
Lol. Sounds easy. But it's not. Trade small. Preferably always less than 0.05 percent of your account.
Since you scale in as the markets going against you when your MAX risk per trade is hit (MAX per contract times the number of contracts held) you must start lowering your risk by removing contracts.
If your MAX risk per contract is breached let's say $40 because you have 5 open contracts your MAX risk is $200 on 5 contracts. ($200 is less then .05 of your account) you must sell a contract to bring your risk within the proper risk levels.
If it continues against you must continue to sell until risk is at appropriate levels or stopped out.
Remember how easy it was to take a loss on the sim?
Visualize how easy it was.
How there was no ego involved.
How you just clicked the button.
It didn't matter WHAT HAPPENED after. You did what you were supposed to do. You got out.
There was no "but what if it..." there was no trepidation of loss. If I was wrong I could simply enter again with a clear mind.
This IS your goal.
Emotions unable to override your logic.
And the only way to do that is to understand at an undeniable deep level when to cut and know thats the right thing to do and no amount of emotion will sway my logical reasonings.
Trading is not technical its emotional. But it shouldn't be.
So I've been getting impatient with these trades here. I have a few times where the $$$ have seemes quite high and I felt like I just left money on the table. Only to watch it come back and worse have to take a few loses to control risk there.
But I did not cut or get stupid so that is progress.
2 stars for not being a complete shit throwing monkey.
Well after just a few hours after posting my PATIENCE post it has proven to be profitable.
After days of frustrating meandering, adding and removing contracts to limit risk, I finally got the push I was waiting for.
This is just one set of trades. The march continues on but this was plain old good trading as I just stuck to the plan and made only a few impulsive adds. Still managing this trade.
Work on finding out WHY I added impulsively and address that! (It's probably because I falsely believed it was my only chance to enter before it rocketed away without me = false beliefs. Maybe it will maybe it won't but this is NOT a good place to enter regardless)
Also explaining my feelings and what to do about them on here in real time gives me the responsibility to do what I just wrote. And that's at least somewhat of an accountability.
Holy crap! You did it! You are $20 figgin dollars away from where you were before you added 5X more than was in the account to begin with... prompting you to loose %20 in a week! More than was in the account to begin with!!!
You made it back with less capital (than from the peak) and far less risk then EVER BEFORE.
That is so important!
You don't need to be a gun slinger. SAVE THOSE BULLETS for strategic adds.
Again... pictures worth a thousand words...Before I added to my account I was flat to very very slightly up for weeks and months at time but I was playing very close to margin sometimes for what I was trying to do.
I am ALWAYS adding just enough to trade with a small cushion. This can be counterproductive at times.
And scaling in the day and being forced out of positions by end of day even if you want to let it run a bit has caused forced losses due to me being undercapitalized.
I added more more than enough to trade the way I would like and risk as little as possible.
Then I immediately went into shit throwing monkey mode with all the contracts I could buy and slowly, then not so slowly I just slipped, tilted, revenge traded, added just cause I was pissed!
Then I stopped. Regrouped. And went back to the original plan.
Practice patience, discipline, don't chase the market, don't panic out, scale in properly, don't exit too early... Ect. Ect.
And most importantly I think I started to write in my journal what I was/am going to do and then I could stick to it and also work through my issues.
Sent using the futures.io mobile app
The following user says Thank You to Sandpaddict for this post:
Just found your journal the other day...looking forward to following along. I like your style of adding and subtracting to longer trades as the market warrants while still keeping in the game. And a great day today...not bad for a Langley boy.... I'm actually just across the river in Maple Ridge soooo we can have a little friendly neighborhood rivalry aimed at keeping us on our A game...
Hope you are enjoying your evening after a good day by taking the night off to refresh. See you out there tomorrow.
Craig
We all have two lives...the second one starts when we realize...we only have one.
Thank you for commenting. And yes I like like that idea!
I have followed you for a bit as well.
Rest? Lol? I do that by being on here. I find it distracts me from doing stupid things because I just sit and stare at the screen too long.
Rest? Pssttht. I'm building a short position this evening.
Just kidding. I am building a position but I value rest, relaxation and mostly my family time.
As far as as the strategy it's a work in progress but I have finally gained the confidence to know that I know HOW to trade. I just have to work on the INNER game.
My focus is nearly exclusively on the patience and discipline part of the puzzle right now.
I'm trying to use chart annotations when they make sense and writing when that makes sense. So here's a bit of both.
Below is my chart of of thurs evening and Friday. I started a short position betting that the market would be neutral to down.
I couldn't have been more wrong. Lol.
But thats why I trade so small. So I added into pops. Some that were OK and some entries I didn't like. (Noted below)
The position didn't get out of hand so I held and tried to lighten my position at the end of Friday as to not hold too many contracts over the weekend.
I was willing to buy back a few at a loss and carry the rest. Maybe 4 or 5.
I bought a few contracts back manually then my super duper brain went "hey, click THAT button" and next thing I knew I went from 7 contracts short to 4 contracts LONG basically filling into the close!
I clicked a button I've never even used before. Well it said "Close" on it!?!! Why would I do something random at the end of the day like that?
Couldn't tell ya. But maybe don't click buttons you never tested in sim. Especially seconds to the close. Sounds obvious but look what you did.
Now if it gaps up of course I'll be happy but if it gaps down I'll be pissed.
• Don't be too hard on yourself.
• But learn from it.
• Read your journal.
• Stick to the strategy.
• Be patient.
• Be disciplined and don't panic out!
I added a last 7 days graph from IB. Even with your absolutely avoidable mistake you are still doing very well.
It's getting easier and easier to not to try to get upset on individual trades.
I'm also gradually shifting to longer term trades. I'm not trying to scalp 357 times a day anymore.
Scalping? It was more like taking a few small losses and taking lots of large losses while taking a few small wins.
The problem I'm having getting above a certain equity balance is because I hold on to both winners and loosers too long.
Generally, I, like most, don't know where price is going.
Some people are very very good as pure price action traders. Not me. As much as I can understand it I can't trade it. That is why my strategy relies on scaling.
This has worked to keep me from loosing for a few months. And I trade every day.
That is great in itself but after transfering a decent amount (for me) into my account I need a way to balance it out as to not scale in too much as I'll have to unload positions at worse and worse prices. Making it hard to make up for it with large enough winners.
I think this has worked so far because I do that on the winning side as well but it's a trade off and you don't know even with small positions if your going to have to unwind at worse and worse prices.
That is how it has to work to even each other out and hopefully you hold those winners for longer than the loosers.
Well I've done some testing this weekend and think I know the way to tip the odds in my favor. All forward testing.
It's to keep everything the same, still scaling in... BUT... take profits on ALL POSITIONS AT YOUR STARTER POSITION TARGET!
1. So you place your starter position and set your target immediately from there.
2. Scale in as the position goes against or in your favor, then against.
3. On every add set the target as the same as the starter target.
4. If your loss gets passed your predetermined stop for each contract exit positions to bring risk back in line.
5. HOLD profitable positions until your PT is hit on THE ENTIRE ORDER. Or you move the entire order closer to price if not acting right.
The result is that you will be cashing out with the FULL amount of contracts at the furthest point price have gone in your favor at that point.
While at the same time the averaging down yet holding to the starter target secures a better R/R. Helping to offset those times when price just keeps marching against you.
You KNOW where to enter and you KNOW where to exit.
Keep working on your mindset.
As always, be patient, disciplined and don't panic out of positions.
I've been forwards testing and it's proven out to be true again and again.
Scaling in and exiting ALL is superior to scaling in and out.
I posted above how this fits with how you trade.
Read it. Follow it. You tested in SIM now test it live.
Remember the difference is in the addition of a PT within a reasonable range that offers the ability to exit with FULL position thus securing full profits at that point vs scaling and out which stands the chance of not getting filled at the farthest targets and not offsetting the small gains secured early in the move.
Another words you are securing a profit at a predetermined point with full position vs taking partial profits and relying on the runners make up for the rest of the profit needed to make the strategy profitable.
Lastly it exits you from positions which is good for two reasons.
1. It clears your bias a bit as you can now see clearer without a team to cheer on sort of speak.
2. It frees you from averaging down to infinitum only to take small profits vs the open drawndown needed to secure those profits. Aka buying all the way down only to exit breakeven even or taking small profits after taking a massive relative risk. This leads to a HORRIBLE risk adjusted return.
My goal to chip away at that risk adjusted return part.
This is a good step.
Now like I said in the last post. Patience. Discipline and don't panic out (aka let emotion stress be your signal to exit your position).
One last thing. You are becoming VERY GOOD AT BUYING AND SELLING IN THE POCKETS.
STOP SETTING LIMIT ORDERS and switch to buying/selling in the pockets.
You can control your enries and exits as well as risk very well this way as you have dropped to a much lower TF to precisely time those pockets.
So some more crazy news. I have switched to the MNQ for the time being as a test and it's been great.
I've been using a 4 contract maximum and trading exactly the same way I did in the S&Ps
I have a love hate with the S&Ps. In SIM my profits come so much easier. I know DUH... right? But really. It's not that money's not on the line (only) it's that I can 2X or 5X.
What I find is when trading LIVE I'm the proverbial frog in the boiling water.
What happens is in SIM I know where I want to get in and out and can 2X it but LIVE it takes foooorrrrrreeeever sometimes.
And that is MY impatience.
That impatience causes me to try to do stupid things to make up for what is perceived as a frustratingly mean reverting slow going nowhere market!
I do well. I do poorly. I do well... I do poorly... ect.
But I DO LIKE these higher speeds but NOT higher timeframes.
So I SIM'd the MNQ and found it tradable on it's own!
Well it was for me anyway. Had a few whipsaws to start. Then climbed to $500+ until I lost patience and moved my next sitting entry like 20 points down to go short.
Well the market decided to grind higher at an absolutely mind melting frozen molasses pace for hours.
I had another entry sitting and moved it down another 15-20 points only to have it grind for hours higher more to my original target entry!
So impatience cost me on two counts.
I took two contracts off near the end of the day as the market swhooshed in my favor and let the remainder ride for the weekend. I'll manage on the other side.
I was just going over my stats and holy shit the day I increased my account 5 fold (April 22) I LOST %32.15 of it THAT day!
So for every $1000 in my account I added till it was $5000.
Then that SAME DAY (this is all the day the funds were available to trade) I lost $1607.50 for every $5000 in the account.
You can see I LOST MORE that day then I had in the account to begin with!
I knew this and posted about it at the time but still is still crazy how the jump in funds like that compromised my ability to trade correctly. Even downright terrible.
I have since then recovered 2/3rds of that back. Not all of it, but getting there.
I'm hoping to eventually be able to pull something of a tangible size amount out of the account to signal to myself I can do this vs ALWAYS adding. Then continue to try to build the account for awhile.
)
!
. I'm actually just across the river in Maple Ridge soooo we can have a little friendly neighborhood rivalry aimed at keeping us on our A game...
