I start this trading journal in order to develop basic trading process and be able to get consistent results, so I can evaluate and make progress.
My plan is to establish trading process and then to take TopStep Combine and enter the real futures market. I’m a beginner so I don’t want to commit to much money.
That’s why (and because I live in Poland) I will trade CFD based on NQ futures through a broker that is tied to a bank that I use. I’ll trade on Meta Trader 4.
I set up my account (15 000 PLN) and risk&money management so it could resemble Top Step requirements.
FUS100 in a CFD name that tracks NQ. 1 point is 1,49 PLN (0,40$) with 0,01 lot size position. That’s the minimal trade size, so it’s basically micro stakes, but enough for me to care
(and experience psychological effects that trading produces)..
I look for confluences between those indicators so I can take advantage of break outs. I’ll focus on 5M, 15M and 30M charts.
My strategy is pretty simple one.
For entry I look at TTM_Scalper to generate signal after third bar with higher close in a row (for buy) or third lower close in a row (for sell).
Preferably it should happen at the beginning of a break out.
I avoid entering position during low volatility phase of the cycle.
I look at momentum for confirmation of direction, as well as I take higher time frames tendencies into consideration.
For exit I look at TTM_Trend and close position at first bar of opposite color (first red bar to close long, first green bar to close short).
If opposite signal fires first in TTM_Scalper I also close position. I’m also out of position when price approaches next pivot level.
As I said I want those indicators to be in sync. I also don’t want to enter position opposite to a trend in higher time frame. I’ll avoid any divergences.
I’ve learned so far that it’s better to wait for good opportunity even if that means being flat all day. One of my first mistakes was overtrading.
Now I don’t want to make more than 3 trades a day.
Unfortunately I don’t have access to any meaningful volume indicator and that is a big disadvantage when trading CFDs.
Mostly I will trade between 16:30 GMT+1 and 22:00 GMT+1. I’ll post daily updates.
I'm open to any feedback from you, as I surely make mistakes along the way.
However my goal is to learn as much as possible.
The following 5 users say Thank You to qwachu for this post:
It was tempting to scalp some of the moves between 13230 and 13265, but that's not in the strategy for this challenge
and I know I'm going to overtrade this way. I'm happy that I could restrain myself
See you tomorrow!
The following user says Thank You to qwachu for this post:
@Liltrader Thanks! It's always a challenge to stick to the rules though
Today I've taken 3 trades as I was forced out of positions by TTM_Scalper exit signal.
If I had stuck to my stop loss level I could stay in first trade and let it ride.
However I use TTM_Scalper also to limit the risk I take in each trade, especially when I dont' hit
that breakout that would give me dozens of points
Trade#2
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 16:31 at 13396,00
Close: 17:35 at 13409,25
P/L: +13,25 points
Entry: TTM_Squeeze fires signal in M30 chart.
Entry Trade#2
Stop loss is 20 points.
Exit: TTM_Scalper on M5 chart generates signal to go short after 1h 4 minutes.
Exit Trade#2
Trade#3
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:45 at 13439,98
Close: 18:30 at 13463,15
P/L: +23,17 points
Entry: I go long after 3rd higher close (TTM_Scalper paints red bar on M5 chart), the pullback wasn't too big, that's why I looked for another entry.
Entry Trade#3
Stop loss is 20 points if the trade would immediately turn against me.
Exit: TTM_Scalper generates signal to go short after 45 minutes.
Exit Trade#3
Trade#4
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 19:35 at 13456,98
Close: 20:05 at 13469,15
P/L: +12,17 points
Entry: I use TTM_Scalper on M5 chart to get in a long position
Entry Trade#4
Stop loss is 17 points.
Exit: TTM_Scalper generates signal to go short after 30 minutes.
Exit Trade#4
Today's P/L: +48,59 points TOTAL P/L:+109,11 points
I'm not particularly thrilled about today's R:R ratio, so I will observe if such situations occur more often and then I'll adjust.
For now I need more data.
I made two mistakes today. I've chased a trade that I didn't execute at the right price, then I was second guessing whether I should exit right away or not.
I also entered a trade too early, not waiting for a close of a M30 bar to confirm the signal. It didn't cost me money this time,
but it will in the future.
That's why I make a note to myself: focus on the present moment and follow the plan! Trade#5
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 16:19 at 13434,15
Close: 16:29 at 13422,75
P/L: +11,40 points
Entry: TTM_Squeeze fired a short signal at 13464 and I chased the trade to enter it 30 points lower.
#1Mistake - chasing
Exit: I second guessed myself whether to stay in this trade, got confused and decided to close it after 10 minutes of fruitless rumination.
Today on 5M chart I could observe a signal that should be avoided. It looks like that:
What to avoid
TTM_Scalper paints big red bar after 3rd higher close, which is below the high of that first bar. I disregard such signals
applying what John Carter wrote in "Mastering the Trade"
Anyway I waited for a close above the high of that painted bar and I thought I got one...
Trade#6
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:40 at 13452,48
Close: 18:35 at 13459,53
P/L: +7,05 points
Entry: I looked at M30 chart, saw a signal, entered a position, then I realized there was still 15 minutes to a close :P
However the same signal fired also on M15 chart so I stayed in position and waited for exit signal.
Entry Trade#6 M30
Entry Trade#6 M15
Exit: the exit signal appeared after 55 minutes with substantial move downward.
Exit Trade#6
Then market moved straight up leaving me with only 7 points. Trade#7
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 18:45 at 13482,60
Close: 18:56 at 13476,15
P/L: -6,45 points
Entry: TTM_Scalper fires signal on M5 chart
Entry Trade#7 M5
Exit: exit signal is generated after 11 minutes
Exit Trade#7
When the market is choppy it's not easy to rely on those indicators. That's where I should look for divergences to filter out trades.
Today's P/L: +12 points TOTAL P/L: +121,11 points
I've also missed a move short from 21:00 PM (GMT +1), but decided not to chase it and not to think about how many points were left there
After all financial markets will be there tomorrow
My main problem today was being bored while observing the chart. That led to hasty reactions to signals. I've noticed that I switch off and don't pay attention to the state of the market, then when something happens I rush to enter or exit a position.
I could use some mindfullness...
Anyway, I made 3 trades today:
Trade#8
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:50 at 13463,48
Close: 18:30 at 13468,28
P/L: +4,80 points
Entry: signal to go long fired on M5 chart, but I should wait for confirmation on higher time frame
Entry Trade#8
Then the market went back a bit, and a signal to go long fired second time on better price, but I was already in
Second signal after entry trade#8
Confirmation Trade#8
Exit: signal to go short appeared after 40 minutes, as there was no major move up
Exit Trade#8
Trade#9
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 19:15 at 13497,74
Close: 20:22 at 13491,03
P/L: -6,71 points
Entry: TTM_Squeeze fired a signal on M15 chart
Entry Trade#9
This time I had a chance to understand what does "lagging" mean in relation to indicators
I entered after a minor break up and there I was waiting... waiting... getting bored... price move down and I'm gone...
Exit Trade#9
As there was not much going on the chart I started wondering if there is a way for me to get reliable info about volume.
It turns out that on AMP Global demo account I've got live updates on @ENQ volumes. I compared it to what is available on cmegroup.com and it looks similar.
Trade#10
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 20:56 at 13506,35
Close: 22:00 at 13538,40
P/L: +32,05 points
Entry: I entered this trade based on spike in volume between two M5 bars. I set a stop loss to 15 points, below the last M15 bar.
My target was nearest pivot level.
Volume spike
Entry Trade#10
3 bars after a TTM_Squeeze fired a signal to go long:
Entry Trade#10 (1)
Exit: I closed the position when price hit the target
Exit Trade#10
Today's P/L: +30,14 points TOTAL P/L: +151,25 points
I need to work on my mental approach.
I think I'll create some kind of a checklist that I will use before entering a position, so that I could focus on making a rational decision instead of acting on an impulse.
Trade#13
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 20:15 at 13601,73
Close: 20:50 at 13592,03
P/L: -9,70 points
Entry: TTM_Scalper on M5 displays signal to go long
Entry Trade#13
I shouldn't go in as there was no upward momentum
Exit: TTM_Scalper fires a signal to go short on M5
Exit Trade#13
Today's P/L: -60,35 points TOTAL P/L: +90,90 points
I avoided revenge trading and taking more trades that I pre-planned to take. I need to review this week's trades more closely during the weekend and make some adjustments. I see that there's a long way to go before I will have robust process in place.
Trade#17
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:35 at 13690,10
Close: 18:11 at 13692,03
P/L: +1,93 points
Entry: TTM Scalper long on M5 chart
Entry Trade#17
Exit: TTM Scalper short on M5 chart
Exit Trade#17
I didn't actually close that position after the signal appeared, because I've noticed that volume picked up and price went along.
Trade#18
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 18:14 at 13700,85
Close: 19:24 at 13677,15
P/L: -23,70 points
Entry: TTM Scalper long on M5 chart
Exit: stop loss was hit
After that trade the market went up uninterrupted for about an hour. Then during the last hour I made 4 impulse trades.
As I look at it now it strikes me that I didn't execute the valid signal to go long (at 20:00 GMT+1), which could yield aroung +20 points.
That irritated me to the point that I couldn't be calm enough to wait for breakdown that I thought was likely to happen at the end of the session.
When it actually happened I had already closed 3 losing trades. I managed to get only 9,5 points from that last rapid move down.
Trade#19
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 21:15 at 13709,48
Close: 21:16 at 13703,65
P/L: -5,83 points
Trade#20
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 21:25 at 13693,03
Close: 21:35 at 13697,48
P/L: -4,45 points
Trade#21
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 21:40 at 13707,23
Close: 21:50 at 13693,64 (stop loss)
P/L: -13,59 points
Trade#22
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 21:50 at 13689,15
Close: 21:59 at 13679,60
P/L: +9,55 points
Today's P/L: -33,92 points TOTAL P/L: +58,02 points
After such a day I need to make a break. I'll hopefully feel better and think through what I need to avoid in trading and how to prepare myself to not repeat mistakes I've made.
I also need to find out how to connect volume with those indicators I use and adjust my trade plan as well as pay more attention to market conditions during a day.
I've removed SMA50 and added ORB (Opening Range Bar) in order to have additional point of reference throughout the session (besides Pivot Points).
The ORB on my chart is shown as two yellow horizontal lines drawn from the high and the low of first M1 bar of the US session (15:30 GMT+1).
It comes from a book "Pivots, Patterns, and Intraday Swing Trades. Derivatives Analysis with the E-mini and Russell Futures Contracts" by M. William Scheier.
It is used as potential support/resistance level.
I've also removed TTM_Squeeze indicator, because it erased the objects I've drawn in MT4 chart every time I switched timeframes. I still look at it, but on MT5 demo account.
Today I've made 3 trades.
Trade#23
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 18:25 at 13674,00
Close: 18:30 at 13663,10
P/L: +10,90 points
Entry: after almost 3 hours of consolidation around ORB there was a breakdown which I entered after second red bar with volume spike.
Here I saw the volume spike. TTM_Squezze also signals the break (confirmation).
It appears as first grey dot after series of blue ones (on the bottom).
There's also momentum pointing down.
Breakdown Trade#23
Exit: my initial target was 17643,00 (30 points), but didn't manage to keep the position as price moved up after going just past pivot point
Exit Trade #23
That's weak discipline on my side. Needs work.
Trade#24
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 18:49 at 13664,98
Close: 19:05 at 13679,78
P/L: +14,80 points
Entry: I had twofold indication to enter: TTM_Scalper on M1 fires signal to go long + increased volume on the low bar (hammer candlestick).
Entry Trade#24
Reversal Trade#24
My stop loss was 20 points and target 52 points.
Exit: I closed that position earlier, because of waning momentum, but that's weak discipline again!
(my original plan was to hold it unlike in the first trade today)
Exit Trade#24
I've re-entered that trade on next signal to go long.
Trade#25
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 19:14 at 13682,98
Close: 19:35 at 13703,15
P/L: +20,17 points
Entry: TTM_Scalper signals long on M1
Entry Trade#25
My stop loss was 15 points and target 33 points.
Exit: I have accidentally move a stop loss to 13703 and the price was kind enough to hit it.
Today's P/L: +45,87 points TOTAL P/L: +103,89 points
Although I've made a nice profit today it would be nicer if I had the discipline to stick to the plan and didn't make stupid mistakes.
Work in progress...
Today 4 trades. Just like last friday I'm in the red for the day, but not too deep by the courtesy of the last rally to ATH.
Trade#26
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:01 at 13728,73
Close: 19:19 at 13721,00 P/L: - 7,73 points
Entry: I waited for a breakout of the ORB and then joined on TTM_Scalper long signal
Entry Trade#26
Stop loss - 15 points. My target was the next pivot level.
Exit: I closed the trade when I spotted a breakdown. Could close this trade earlier, but decided to wait this time.
The truth is if a waited long enough and had a stop loss of about 25 points I could close it at ATH :P
I went short rightaway instead.
Entry Trade#27
Trade#27
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 19:20 at 13718,78
Close: 19:31 at 13734,10 P/L: - 15,32 points
My stop loss for this trade was 15 points and it was hit after 11 minutes.
Trade#28
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 20:05 at 13712,15
Close: 20:08 at 13720,98
P/L: - 8,83 points
I looked for another short and entered it on an impulse which was a mistake.
Price moved against that position anyway so I closed it.
That's something to avoid in the future.
I should be done for the day... but didn't want to end it in such stupid way.
I returned after one hour break.
Trade#29
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 21:31 at 13753,35
Close: 21:48 at 13779,64 P/L: +26,29 points
Entry: waited for a breakout and entered it after first bar with volume spike
Entry Trade #29
Volume spike Trade#29
Stop loss was below that first bar with increased volume - 10 points.
Exit: I targeted just above the next pivot level - 13780,00. TP was hit.
Exit Trade#29
Today's P/L: - 5,59 points TOTAL P/L: +98,30 points
After best day in Febraury there was the worst day, profit wise at least.
Trade#34
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 18:20 at 13598,28
Close: 18:30 at 13619,32
P/L: -21,04 points
Entry: I went short after price pulled back to nearest pivot level and then went below
Entry Trade#34
Stop loss was 21 points and I was hit after 10 minutes.
I've ignored signal in opposite direction and momentum.
Trade#35
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 20:05 at 13675,73
Close: 20:22 at 13655,40
P/L: -20,33 points
Entry: I went long on long signal in TTM_Scalper and pivot level
Entry Trade#35
Stop loss was 20 points and it was hit after 17 minutes.
Trade#36
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 21:40 at 13701,48
Close: 21:55 at 13689,78
P/L: -11,70 points
Entry: I went long hoping that breakout move will be continued (as it was in last week) - that's not an entry signal so I'll treat such thoughts as a warning in the future
Entry Trade#36
Stop loss - 20 points
Exit: price moved against on higher volume so I closed the position
Exit Trade#36
Trade#37
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 21:55 at 13687,28
Close: 21:56 at 13699,73
P/L: -12,45 points
Entry: I went short on an impulse - that's something to avoid
Exit: I closed position on an impulse as well
I have to eliminate trades like the two above. That would be a big part of learning how not to lose money.
Today's P/L: - 65,52 points TOTAL P/L: 108,30 points
Today I got to my maximum drawdown in Feb and for now it is 1,08% (five consecutive losing trades).
Good that this losing streak ended today as well.
Trade#38
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 16:50 at 13526,23
Close: 17:00 at 13515,53
P/L: -10,70 points
Entry: I went long a bit late on TTM_Scalper long signal (M5 chart)
Entry Trade#38
Stop loss - 20 points. Target: next pivot level (S1)
Exit: I closed this trade on an impulse, as there wasn't any reason for this other than first bar with lower high after reaching
lower line of ORB (and that's my rationalization after the fact)
Exit Trade#38
As you can see below Trade#38 would work out after being quite close to stop loss level (~5 points).
I feel like idiot when I look at it now.
I guess that's inevitable part of learning...
Trade#39
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:27 at 13564,85
Close: 17:29 at 13546,28
P/L: -18,57 points
Entry: after a breakout there was a pause and I went long near S1 pivot expecting continuation
Entry Trade#39
Stop loss - 20 points. Target: midpoint between PP and S1 pivot levels (13620)
Exit: closed this trade just before stop loss
Exit Trade#39
This time price went south quite fast...
Trade#40
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 18:20 at 13539,23
Close: 19:36 at 13601,53
P/L: +62,30 points
Entry: long signal on TTM_Scalper after a small breakout (M5)
Entry Trade#40
Stop loss was 26 points.
Exit: closed position after reaching above 2:1 R:R and on diminishing momentum
Exit Trade#40
Today's P/L: +33,03 points TOTAL P/L: +141,33 points
Friday was a painful day for me. 3 trades, 3 losses. I didn't trade more as it probably would have ended even worse.
Trade#41
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:03 at 13686,48
Close: 17:17 at 13667,03
P/L: -19,45 points
Entry: long signal on M15 chart which I entered with delay (I should pass on it once I didn't make it as it occured)
Entry Trade#41
Stop loss was 20 points and it was hit after 14 minutes.
Trade#42
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:30 at 13694,85
Close: 17:50 at 13673,78
P/L: -21,07 points
Entry: long signal on M5 chart just after stopping out the last trade
Entry Trade#42
Stop loss - 21 points. It was hit after 20 minutes.
Trade#43
Instrument: FUS100
LONG
Open: 17:53 at 13678,6
Close: 17:59 at 13664,03
P/L: -14,57 points
Entry: I thought that this pattern will repeat so I went long (instead of going short as the signal pointed out)
Entry Trade#43
Stop loss at 15 points was hit 6 minutes later.
This last trade, had I followed my plan, was worth around 66 points (PP level as target) do I could easily be up for the day and the week.
I tried to outsmart myself and I got the lesson.
Today's P/L: - 55,09 points TOTAL P/L: +86,24 points
As now I have 43 trades (46,5% winning, 53,5 losing) I am able to look closely on what worked out and what didn't.
Hopefully I could figure out some actionable conclusions for next week and minimize the probablity of making the same mistakes.
Trade#45
Instrument: FUS100
SHORT
Open: 20:15 at 13356,90
Close: 21:02 at 13314,85
P/L: +42,05 points
Entry: TTM_Scalper signal short on M5
Entry Trade#45
Stop loss - 20 points.
Exit: Target Profit was hit after 47 minutes.
Today's P/L: +52,85 points TOTAL P/L: +139,09 points
Today's mistake: I didn't go long rightaway after first trade. I wasn't sure to take that trade, but it appears that on
days with higher volatility it is a good option. On choppy days it would force me to go back and forth, so that's something to
keep in mind.
I have limited this second trade to TP of 2:1 R:R. It turned out that price went to S3 level so the trade had actually 6,5:1 R:R.
It's always so obvious in hindsight...
