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Simple Setups - Journal


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Simple Setups - Journal

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  #31 (permalink)
 Locust 
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Big Mike View Post
Odds are the same every roll.

Mike

In now, looking at every roll independently. But looking at the whole ?
What if you roll a million times, how often will you have 2 times in a row compared to 20 times ?

Looking at the market, every trend stops at least for a short reaction once in an while. I would rougher enter a countertrend
on a day where I know that in the past with a high percentage the market went in my direction, than trading a signal against the established trend in the longer time frame.


Locust

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  #32 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Locust View Post
In now, looking at every roll independently. But looking at the whole ?
What if you roll a million times, how often will you have 2 times in a row compared to 20 times ?

Looking at the market, every trend stops at least for a short reaction once in an while. I would rougher enter a countertrend
on a day where I know that in the past with a high percentage the market went in my direction, than trading a signal against the established trend in the longer time frame.


Locust

I hear what you are saying. But, I really, really suck at math so I can't make a scientific response. All I know is each roll has the same odds as the role before it and the one after it.

The market is not this simple. You would have to define and build an edge/method and then forward test it in a live market to know if your edge/method is going to work using these types of odds or statistics.

Mike

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  #33 (permalink)
 Locust 
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Big Mike View Post
I hear what you are saying. But, I really, really suck at math so I can't make a scientific response. All I know is each roll has the same odds as the role before it and the one after it.

The market is not this simple. You would have to define and build an edge/method and then forward test it in a live market to know if your edge/method is going to work using these types of odds or statistics.

Mike

Me too, but I had a few brain-bucks look at the idea and the outcome is the same reason why casinos have table limits and donīt let you stand around the table for endless hours. If you have deep enough pockets to double up you change the odds after 6 to 7 throws in a row. In the equity markets after 10 - 12 bars on an eod timeframe.

Donīt get me wrong,
I am not suggesting to short after a bull run of 12 days and double on the next day in case you are wrong, everybody would be go bankrupt no matter how deep their pockets might be. But as an initial filter and point to build a possible pattern on, it works.


Locust


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  #34 (permalink)
 LukeGeniol 
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Locust, have u some statistic on your method eod and intraday for the instruments u trade?

Thanks.

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
Luke.
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  #35 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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I hope we can dive into more stats on countertrend trades especially forward testing . Im partial to a trade against the trend if a wide ranging bar with the trend , the wider the better , encounters a subsequent opposing bar for a short ride against the trend . Trend --> exhaustion ----> regrouping .

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  #36 (permalink)
 Locust 
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Took a little time-off, after being definitely not in the zone.
Used the time to look at some longer timeframes.

Interesting Setup in Gold.

Even though long term the trend is stable and probably makes the perfect example for trend following books to come.

Medium Term we are at a very interesting point.

Since I outed myself as more of a countertrend trader,
let me know what you think first.


Locust


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  #37 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Locust, you asked for feedback so here is mine so far. I like the simple nature of your charts. I don't understand your method or your signals, so can't comment nor should it really matter to you what I say about them.

You mentioned today you were not in the zone -- is this a 'method/signal' issue or an 'execution' issue? I'd like to know more about what guidelines you've setup in your trading plan that help you deal with being "not in the zone", and what to do about it.

Mike

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  #38 (permalink)
 Locust 
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Big Mike View Post
Locust, you asked for feedback so here is mine so far. I like the simple nature of your charts. I don't understand your method or your signals, so can't comment nor should it really matter to you what I say about them.

You mentioned today you were not in the zone -- is this a 'method/signal' issue or an 'execution' issue? I'd like to know more about what guidelines you've setup in your trading plan that help you deal with being "not in the zone", and what to do about it.

Mike

Itīs never one of them.
My signals and strategies are automated and long enough live traded, that I trust them to a big extend.

Me not being in the zone, is probably a common problem for all traders, things in ones personal live that you have to deal with. e.g. an argument with the wife, a close friend telling you he seriously ill..........

If it is something that forces you to leave the screen, good,
but if it is something that just occupies your mind, it is a tough call, to stay and potentially make some money or leave anyway and save yourself from making a loss.

I like to trade "by hand" on top of my strategies and even though being fully aware of the facts, i still make the wrong call from time to time. Being aware of it, makes it even more annoying, as a youngster i would have just called it a bad day and kicked some dustbins. Now i kick myself, because i should have known better.


Locust


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  #39 (permalink)
 Locust 
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Looking at the enormous move we have had in the equities, bonds, prec. metals and the US$, the analyst and papers are now talking about the year-end-rally, no investment alternatives and how far the markets might go..........

In my experience, the moment the crowd agrees on the direction, it will soon go the other way.
No point catching the falling knife or standing in front of the train, but for me the time to stand on the sidelines and wait for the signs.

The only buying opportunities out there at the moment are 6 month gamma/volatility and some US$ ( for some early christmas shopping :-)) )

In the meantime, going to work more on my "hft" ideas.


Locust


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  #40 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Locust, I agree. A while back I posted a poll asking if the market would hit 900 before 1200 or something like that (its in the polls section). Majority of people said market will go lower first.

My feeling is if the majority of people are bearish, yet market is moving higher, then there is going to be a big short squeeze. I feel if their sentiment is bearish then they've already taken bearish-type action, and the market could not be pushed down, so that means the market will likely move higher.

But, I am not a fundamental trader, I trade what I see. It's just fun to speculate on the side.

Mike

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