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Learning from a Market Wizard: Swinging Stocks in the Style of Mark Minervini


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Learning from a Market Wizard: Swinging Stocks in the Style of Mark Minervini

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  #1 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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While not specific to futures trading, I wanted to start this journal on futures.io because it is THE best online trading forum!

There are many terms used to describe the broad style of trading in which I am currently engaged - trend following, momentum, breakout, and growth are but a few of the more popular titles. Regardless of verbiage the objective remains the same: participate in trends that are already underway in an effort to catch the 'meat of the move.' The fundamental underlying belief is that trends are more likely to continue than they are to reverse.

A 2014 study by Capital Fund Management found trend following to be a "genuine market anomaly" to the strong correlation observed between "risk premium" and tail-risk skewness. In other words, over the long run we would expect 'riskier' assets or trading strategies in this case to yield higher net returns. Trend following was found to have unusually high sharpe ratios in conjunction with negative skew.


link to study: https://www.cfm.fr/insights/risk-premia-asymmetric-tail-risks-and-excess-returns/

It has been the conclusion of my own research that a high percentage of traders/investors who have achieved exceptional performance have done so utilizing a strategy that is trend following in nature. Moreover trend traders have found success since the inception of stock markets - from Jesse Livermore in the early 1900's to Darvas in the middle of the century to the current 2020 US Investing Championship contestants the strategy has not yet fallen out of favor. Such a long track record and many variations of a central theme suggests to me that trend following exploits a permanent characteristic of the markets.

The particular style of trading that I will be journaling about is closely resemblant to the strategy outlined by Mark Minervini in his books. In short I will be looking to buy strong stocks as they break out of properly formed bases. Let's break this down.

A strong stock is one that has outperformed both the index and its sector during the most recent months. Typically these will be exciting companies offering a new product or service. Sometimes they are recent IPO's while other times they are well-established companies with a new and innovative idea. In the futures world, there are many stories of great fortunes being built trading persistent trends in commodities.

A properly formed base, as defined by Mark Minervini, must have a few characteristics. To qualify as a VCP (volatility contraction pivot) each successive pullback in price must be smaller in magnitude from high to low than the previous one. Volume should trend lower from the left to the right side of the base suggesting that less and less supply is coming to market. While not essential, it is preferable to see the days with the lowest volume and narrowest ranges occur during the final contraction before the buy point. In short, we want to see a stock quiet down before breaking out.

Here is an excerpt from Mark Minervini's book that explains VCP's succinctly.



The expectation here is that, after undergoing the basing process, a strong stock is likely to continue its ascent.

Risk management is integral to this and every trading approach. I set my stops at the low of the final contraction - a location that will only get hit if the stock fails to properly break out.

In 2021 I am competing in the US Investing Championship and this strategy is an integral component in my approach to the competition. I am coming into this year with no open positions and intend to document every new trade in this journal.

In 2020 I yielded 17% between September, when I began trading this system live, and the end of the year.

Here's to an epic New Year!

-Zimmer

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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Resources:

Books:
"How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market" by Nicolas Darvas
"Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market" by Mark Minervini
"Think and Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules and Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard" by Mark Minervini
"How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times Or Bad" by William O'Neil
"Unholy Grails: A New Road to Wealth" by Nick Radge

YouTube:
IBD Podcasts by Investors Business Daily
Market Chat by Richard Moglen
All of Mark Minervini's videos

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Market Wizard
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What is the average frequency of trade opportunities with this system? And average time in market?

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trendisyourfriend View Post
What is the average frequency of trade opportunities with this system? And average time in market?

Over the past four months I've opened 90 trades for an average of ~1 buy per day. Number of trade opportunities depends greatly on market conditions as setups will be plentiful during bull markets and scarce during bear markets.

My average trade duration has been 17 calendar days so far.

-Zimmer

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I'm looking forward to this journal, in no small part due to the fact that I've also been working on some breakout ideas over the past several months, and, like you, have had some encouraging results applying my concepts to individual stocks on daily (as opposed to intraday) timeframes. That said, I do feel that broader market conditions have been extremely supportive of trend-following and breakout strategies in general over the past several months, and I worry that I won't be able to achieve the same results if and when market conditions invariably change. This is something I'll clearly need to work on.

Either way I wish you great success, and hope to maybe pick up a few good pearls by reading your journal. In the meantime perhaps I'll read some of Minervini's published work as well. I've been following him on twitter for a while and like what I've seen so far.

May I ask how you're screening your stocks? I've been tinkering around with finviz.com but ideally would like to create my own custom technical studies, which I don't believe I can do on that platform.

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Schnook View Post
I'm looking forward to this journal, in no small part due to the fact that I've also been working on some breakout ideas over the past several months, and, like you, have had some encouraging results applying my concepts to individual stocks on daily (as opposed to intraday) timeframes. That said, I do feel that broader market conditions have been extremely supportive of trend-following and breakout strategies in general over the past several months, and I worry that I won't be able to achieve the same results if and when market conditions invariably change. This is something I'll clearly need to work on.

Either way I wish you great success, and hope to maybe pick up a few good pearls by reading your journal. In the meantime perhaps I'll read some of Minervini's published work as well. I've been following him on twitter for a while and like what I've seen so far.

May I ask how you're screening your stocks? I've been tinkering around with finviz.com but ideally would like to create my own custom technical studies, which I don't believe I can do on that platform.

Schnook, it is a pleasure to read and respond to your comment!

Recently I've been sorting my watchlists by length of time in days since the most recent high from longest to shortest. In doing so I start by looking at the stocks with the most mature bases. I find stocks from two primary sources: 1) colleagues, and 2) reviewing the new 52 week highs list every day. In order to add a stock to my watchlist the company needs to either have solid sales/earnings growth, or have an innovative product or service that I believe to have great disruptive potential. Companies that satisfy both criteria are optimal!

Cheers,
-Zimmer

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Bought NVDA @ 539.465, Stop 510.52


NVDA Daily

The solid green line was the pivot level I originally identified. In a closer look last night I realized that the more recent high marked with dashed green and labeled 'Pocket Pivot' may be buyable as well if volume surged as price traded through that level.

NVDA Intraday

Price ripped through the 'Pocket Pivot' level (labeled 1) on elevated volume but by the time the alert went off and I calculated my share size price had already advanced. I've learned it is best to exercise restraint and not chase entries because doing so opens the door to trade plan deviation.

As price traded through the originally marked pivot level (labeled 2) on increased volume I initiated a position.

Open Positions:
NVDA

-Zimmer

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Bought OZON today. Dominant e-commerce company in Russia with impressive growth figures. Clean VCP setup on the chart finalized by the inside day pocket pivot that formed yesterday.

OZON Daily


Open Positions:
NVDA
OZON

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Stopped out of NVDA.

Bought LPRO @ 34.7399, Stop 32.76


1.6 LPRO Daily


1.6 LPRO Intraday


I love everything about this LPRO buy. IPO'd less than a year ago. Disruptive technology. Relative strength. VCP base pattern. Huge volume surge intraday as price cleared the pivot.

Open Positions:
OZON
LPRO

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Bought KSS @ 42.20, Stop 38.64
Bought LMND @ 126.52, Stop 117.99


1.7 KSS Daily

$KSS is perhaps an unpopular pick for this style of trading but I can't argue with the relative strength of the past few months. This is very much a play on reopening, stimulus, and continued growth in new construction and existing home sales. Technically a well formed HTF/VCP.

1.7 LMND Daily

$LMND: Recent IPO. Disruptive Technology that has only scratched the surface of addressable market. Meets the High Tight Flag/Power Play criteria + clear VCP pattern.

1.7 LMND Intraday

I see the final contraction as the time period from 12:45-14:52 yesterday which explains the stop placement.

LMND hit my 2R target today and I took half off. Always nice to have a trade take off right out of the gate.

Open Positions:
OZON
LPRO
KSS
LMND

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Bought LOW @ 165.76, Stop 157.12
Bought DSGX @ 60.79, Stop 56.54

1.8 LOW Daily

$LOW is another play on a continued boom in new construction and remodels. Technicals look great to me with volume drying up in noticeably in the past two weeks. Potentially emerging from this cheat here.

1.8 DSGX Daily

$DSGX: Talk about a business with consistent revenue and earnings growth... the numbers aren't crazy but seem very sustainable. Long base with VCP characteristics. Nice end of day breakout today. Interested to see if the buying continues into Monday.

Open Positions:
OZON
LPRO
KSS
LMND
LOW
DSGX

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Week 1

Ended Week 1 with a YTD gain of $1,386 and 2.27%

On Tuesday I passed on a setup because volume did not increase as the stock traded through the pivot price. The next day the stock ripped up 9% prompting me to question whether or not this volume requirement is well-based. I checked my stats for the past four months and determined that volume on the day of breakout had little to no noticeable correlation to trade outcome. This experience was a positive as it inspired me to remove a baseless entry condition.

-Zimmer

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All I did today was add to KSS and tighten up the stop on the whole position.

1.11 KSS Daily

KSS and the entire retail sector was showing relative strength this morning. Other than that, nothing to report.

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Bought TGTX @ 55.93, Stop 51.30
Bought NTRA @ 113.91, Stop 108.42
Sold DSGX ahead of stop in order to....
Buy PYPL @ 243.72, Stop 233.82


1.13 TGTX Daily

In hindsight I think the Pocket Pivot was the better buy location but I'm long from 55.93, stop 51.30. Like this HTF setup but not seeing much followthrough yet. Will give it benefit of the doubt.

1.13 NTRA Daily

Hard to find a short-term Cup w/ Handle that looks much nicer than this one. Love the volume taper as price came up the right side and the tight ranges of the past three days. Long from 113.91

1.13 PYPL Daily Marked Up.png

I see this little Cup w/ Handle as a continuation or secondary base after the longer VCP that formed between September and December. $PYPL is just a great all-around CANSLIM name that checks all the right boxes.

Open Positions:
OZON
LPRO
KSS
LMND
LOW
TGTX
NTRA
PYPL

117% invested here. Sold DSGX in order to buy PYPL because I liked the setup on PYPL but didn't want to increase my notional exposure. My positions have some traction but it doesn't feel like a frictionless environment enough to justify getting deeply into margin.

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Somehow I missed Thursday and Friday of last week!

1/14/2021 (Thursday)

Sold 1/4 OZON (1/4 remaining)
Sold 1/4 LMND (1/4 remaining)
Stopped out TGTX (0 remaining)
Sold all NTRA (0 remaining)
Sold 1/2 PYPL (1/2 remaining)

Wednesday night my scans turned up only seven buyable setups (in the past 4-5 months this last has gotten up to 40 names at times) which had me in caution mode. TGTX closed near lows on Wednesday and NTRA closed below the pivot after moving up a decent amount. Because breakouts weren't getting much traction and the watchlist was slim I was very aggressive with closing positions and reducing exposure.

1/15/2021 (Friday)

Sold 1/2 PYPL (0 remaining)
Sold 1/2 LPRO (1/2 remaining)
Bought 1/10 PLTR (diagnostic position)

With the early session weakness on Friday I was pleased to have reduced my exposure significantly the day before. At this point I was fully in caution mode. As opposed to not trading I take very small positions to serve as real-time live diagnostics. These small positions won't really push the P/L needle either direction but they will give me valuable information on the pulse of the market. Once these and any previous positions not stopped out during a correction begin to gain traction and the watchlist of buyable setups begins to widen I greenlight bigger size for any new opening transactions. This method of portfolio management and position sizing will likely decrease performance marginally during short and shallow corrections but make up for it in spades during a protracted bear market or crash.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (1)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (1)
PLTR (1/10 diagnostic)

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Bought 1/10 positions in CALX and TT.

On balance my three diagnostic positions are still not getting much traction. CALX was a nice breakout today. TT was a somewhat weak close. PLTR had neutral action today.

Sold 1/4 LOW position (3/4 remaining)

Open Positions:
OZON(1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (1)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (3/4)
PLTR (1/10 diagnostic)
CALX (1/10 diagnostic)
TT (1/10 diagnostic)
54% invested

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Bought more diagnostic positions: TDOC and RDFN.

Now have six of these smaller positions open and still not getting much traction on any but TDOC and, to a lesser extent, CALX. Seems that sizing down has been the right decision thus far. Will continue to trade small until conditions improve.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (1)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (3/4)
PLTR (1/10 diagnostic)
CALX (1/10 diagnostic)
TT (1/10 diagnostic)
TDOC (1/10 diagnostic)
RDFN (1/10 diagnostic)

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Sold 1/2 CALX, everything else unchanged

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Stopped on RDFN
Sold 1/2 PLTR at 2R (1/20 remaining)

My diagnostic positions have begun to gain traction with only one of the five hitting stop, one down slightly, and three showing unrealized gain. TDOC was a nice breakout that has held up thus far. PLTR chopped sideways but then broke out strongly today. Nothing crazy in CALX but appears to be constructive price action post-breakout.

Number of buyable setups seems to be on par for Mondays so far this year despite tightening up my scan criteria today.




Overall I feel that the market has given me signs to begin getting more aggressive. Pending price action I intend to scale up size for new positions next week to at least 1/2 size from 1/10.

Interesting data shared with me by a trading colleague practicing a similar approach suggests that both Average Daily Dollar Volume (left) and Average Daily Dollar Volume divided by Market Cap or Percentage of Shares Outstanding Transacted per Day (top) impact the expectancy of breakout trades. Credit: https://twitter.com/enter_order

Liquidity and Market Cap vs. Expectancy


My takeaway from this is to filter out all stocks that don't satisfy both of the following criteria: 50-Day Median (decrease effect of outliers) Daily Dollar Volume > $100M AND MDDV / Mkt Cap > 1%

This effectively wipes out over 2/3 of the scan results. Considering this I see the 15 setups currently buyable as well above average relative to the looser scan I've been running prior to today.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (1)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (3/4)
PLTR (1/20 diagnostic)
CALX (1/20 diagnostic)
TT (1/10 diagnostic)
TDOC (1/10 diagnostic)
53% Invested

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Week 3 Results


+$3,975.35 on $61.2k starting balance
+6.49% YTD
62% Average Exposure

Exposure

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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Came into today feeling confident and ready to begin taking larger-than-diagnostic positions.

SHOP set up nice and broke out. Bought 1/2 size position. Stopped later on the mid-morning flush.
Sold 1/2 TDOC (1/20 remaining)
Sold ~1/4 KSS (~3/4 remaining)

The action today was interesting and I'm not sure what to make of it. Volatility definitely increased but on the other hand, the dip was bought and the close was strong. Cautiously bullish... no new positions larger than the 1/10 diagnostic size.

Watchlist for tomorrow is quite short at only seven names.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (~3/4)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (3/4)
PLTR (1/20)
CALX (1/20)
TT (1/10)
TDOC (1/20)
48% Invested

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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Sold 1/4 LPRO (1/4 remaining)
Bought 1/10 ARWR (diagnostic)
Bought 1/10 ZI (diagnostic)

Only found five potential setups for tomorrow. Fully in the cautious camp here.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LPRO (1/4)
KSS (~3/4)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (3/4)
PLTR (1/20)
CALX (1/20)
TT (1/10)
TDOC (1/20)
ARWR (1/10)
ZI (1/10)
47% Invested

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  #23 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Stopped TT
Stopped LPRO on trail stop
Stopped ARWR
Sold 1/2 KSS into the morning strength (1/4 remaining)
Bought 1/10 NTAP
Bought 1/10 NVAX
Sold LOW on trail stop

Open Positions:

OZON (1/4)
KSS (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
CALX (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
ZI (1/10)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/10)
22% Invested


My caution has been increasing the past two weeks and today it paid off coming in under 50% invested. I was very fortunate to sell KSS into strength this morning. Because of this and general outperformance I actually ended the day flat despite the carnage in the indexes.

Added two new diagnostic positions. A few of them are working great such as PLTR and TDOC but many have hit stops suggesting that I still don't have much traction in this environment. I'd be pleasantly surprised by an up day tomorrow.

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Stopped CALX
Stopped ZI
Bought 1/10 DKNG
Sold 1/2 NVAX at 2R+ after hours

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
KSS (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/20)
DKNG (1/10)
19% Invested

My diagnostic positions continue to show divergent performance. Majority hitting stops and a select few have broken out strongly and shown extreme relative strength. I still don't feel that this is a time to get aggressive. Found only three setups for today suggesting an extreme shortage of stocks with well-constructed bases. With no stocks breaking out how can the market move higher? Of course Minervini's is just one of many ways to trade. It's entirely possible that other trend-followers are finding many setups for their methodology while I am finding few for mine.

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  #25 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Broker: TD Ameritrade
Trading: Equities, Treasuries, Gold
 
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January Closed Stock Trade Stats:
+5.20% Pct Gain
52.63% Win Rate
1.65 W/L (R units)
.35R Expectancy



I've done a good job preserving gains as conditions became less favorable and the indexes moved off of highs.

In a month where the S&P500 and DJIA closed negative, the Nasdaq closed slightly positive, and the Russell closed up ~5% I am quite pleased with my return given that I generated it with an average daily exposure of only 54%. This means that adjusting for exposure I doubled the return of the best performing index, with less portfolio volatility.

Slow, smooth, and steady wins this race. Looking for any bits of outperformance I can pick up against the indexes each month. Buy & hold creates huge wealth over a 40+ year period. Consistently edging ahead of buy & hold generates the same results in a shorter period of time. Amount of outperformance in % is exponentially related to the number of years required to reach the same $ result. Keep on searching for those small edges.

-Zimmer

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
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Yesterday I was stopped out of my remaining KSS on trail stop.
Bought 1/10 SNAP.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/20)
DKNG (1/10)
SNAP (1/10)
16% Invested

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  #27 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Bought 1/10 ARWR

Diagnostic positions have been working great. Portfolio up 1.22% this week while only 18% invested on average ~= 6.77% if fully invested vs. indexes weekly returns ranging between ~3.5%-6.2%. Outperformance suggests traction. My watchlist has been broadening recently although the one concern I have is that any stocks off of highs are weak relative to the indexes over the past weeks timeframe - that includes any and all stocks currently basing. All things considered, if stocks break out tomorrow I will hit new setups with 1/2+ size, up from the 1/10 I've been trading.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/20)
DKNG (1/10)
SNAP (1/10)
ARWR (1/10)
21% Invested

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  #28 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Failed to check earnings on ARWR and SNAP! Got lucky on SNAP but not so much on ARWR.

Stopped out ARWR just before it reversed and ripped higher.
Sold 1/20 SNAP at 2R (1/20 remaining)
Bought 1/2 ATUS
Bought 1/2 GH

ATUS


GH


Portfolio getting traction + watchlist broadening = increase position sizing. Neither ATUS nor GH were screamin' setups that I HAD to take hence the 1/2 positions sizes. For next week I'm prepared to go full size on A+ setups and 1/2 size on anything good but less than A+. Haven't completed my weekend scanning yet but it looks like this is going to be the longest actionable watchlist I've had for a Monday yet this year. The theory is that the more stocks set to break out the higher the likelihood of follow through in the event of a total-market breakout.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/20)
DKNG (1/10)
SNAP (1/20)
ATUS (1/2)
GH (1/2)
46% Invested

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  #29 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Bought LAZR, DADA, and SBE - all full size positions as planned.

All closed below the pivot and with negative P/L! Bummer but nothing I can do but wait and see what kind of price action we get tomorrow. The worst case scenario is all three hit the stop and I take a -3% hit on the overall account. Recognition and acceptance of the worst likely outcome (fear-setting) has been a hugely beneficial practice for me in continuing to detach my emotions from money/outcome.

My existing positions worked reasonably well today, returning +1.27% on dollars invested, beating all the indexes except for the ever-so-powerful and squeezelicious Russell 2000.

Overall I'm still feeling pretty good about market conditions and looking to add exposure. Would like to see my three new positions advance before adding more exposure though. In absence of the three new positions advancing I will sell one position in order to finance any new risk in a more promising setup.


Open Positions:

OZON (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/20)
DKNG (1/10)
SNAP (1/20)
ATUS (1/2)
GH (1/2)
LAZR (1)
DADA (1)
SBE (1)
78% Invested

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
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Stopped out of LAZR and SBE
Sold remaining SNAP
Bought INFO
Bought AI

Was stopped out of two of my three buys from yesterday and the one that has not hit stop is down healthily and approaching stop. Despite this market feedback I felt the setups were too good to not take in INFO and AI. I originally took full size positions in both but as the day progressed I decided it would be prudent to cut them back a little bit so I sold 1/4 of each (also sold SNAP at this point). By the end of the day SBE and LAZR had both recovered which, while annoying for me, is a good sign for the market and makes me feel better about the amount of exposure I currently have on.

Most stats I look at suggest short-term weakness in the broad market but long-term no major warning signs yet.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/20)
DKNG (1/10)
ATUS (1/2)
GH (1/2)
DADA (1)
INFO (3/4)
AI (3/4)
73% Invested

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: TD Ameritrade
Trading: Equities, Treasuries, Gold
 
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This year in my USIC account I've been keeping track of what my trade results would have been had I used a tighter LOD stop instead of my standard stop at the recent swing low.


Initial Stop


R Units


Percentage


Stats:
Swing Low - LOD
Win Rate: 52% - 40%
WL %: 1.27 - 2.16
WL R: 1.16 - 2.59
Expectancy %: .93% - .80%
Expectancy R: .10 - .40

My takeaway here is that the majority of my winning trades hit neither the LOD nor swing low stop. Trades that hit LOD stop are quite likely to hit swing low stop prior to a reasonable target being achieved.
It appears that a LOD stop has been more optimal for this dataset and I think I'll be using a LOD stop moving forward. The idea makes sense to me from a capital efficiency perspective as well. Quickly kill losers and put that money to work in something new breaking out.

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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ATUS gap up + earnings announcement after the close today = sell it all
Bought LAZR w/ LOD stop
Tightened my stop on AI after the opening dip and recovery - stopped out
Bought 1/10 RIDE (things don't seem to be working at this point + market volatility increasing)
Stopped on GH
Stopped on RIDE
Tightened stop on INFO ala AI and was stopped out as well
EOD RIDE closed strong, bought 1/10 again

Seems that my recent breakouts sized up to full positions have not been working - almost a perfect 100% loss rate. Time to size back down.


Open Positions:

OZON (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/20)
DKNG (1/10)
DADA (1)
RIDE (1/10)
25% Invested

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: TD Ameritrade
Trading: Equities, Treasuries, Gold
 
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Stopped RIDE

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LMND (1/4)
PLTR (1/20)
TDOC (1/20)
NTAP (1/10)
NVAX (1/20)
DKNG (1/10)
DADA (1)
25% Invested

Sizing down until equity curve begins to make progress again. The chart below illustrates my effort to increase exposure when things are working and scale back when conditions are tough.


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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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About one month ago I stumbled on Kristjan's twitter (https://twitter.com/Qullamaggie), followed the links to his website (https://chartsandstories.com/start-here/), read his story, watched his YouTube videos, tuned in to his daily twitch stream, and began to practice his breakout setup in a separate account.

General Similarities between Minervini and Kristjan Approach:
-Trade stocks displaying relative strength (recent outperformance, hot sector, etc)
-Buy stocks as they break out of a range
-Use a tight stop loss
-Sell some into strength

Specific Differences:
-Minervini uses his trend template to scan (Minervini Private Access) while Kris scans for the stocks that have made the largest % advances over the past 1,3, and 6 months that also satisfy liquidity requirements (relative to account size)
-Minervini has a handful of very specific setups or base patterns from which a stock can be bought on a breakout. Kris has variations on one simple setup that can but doesn't necessarily satisfy Minervini's VCP criteria.
-Minervini typically uses a stop at the recent swing low while Kris almost always uses a stop at the low of day at the time of breakout
-Minervini sells some at a multiple of his risk while Kris typically begins scaling out on days 3-5 after a successful breakout

Generational Evolution:
I've found that breakout/momentum swingtrading has continually evolved over the past century. Many of the original concepts discussed by Livermore and Darvas are still relevant today - these storied traders laid the foundation from which the next generation built upon. The human race continually seeks progress - evolution - improvement. Trading is no different from any other pursuit in this general sense. Minervini's approach clicked most with me prior to discovering Kris' material. I believe that there are many ways to skin this cat and that the job of the aspiring trader is to seek the process most efficient for themselves. With this in mind I've now traded in Kristjan's style for a month, made 56 trades, and have collected stats from which to compare to the results of my Minervini-style trading during the same time period.

Equity Curves and Exposures


Notably better linearity in the Kris equity curve. Also notable that, as of now, net returns are approximately equivalent while avg exposure over the sample has been only 15% (Kris) vs. 45% (Minervini). With 1/3 the exposure I've achieved the same returns (superior if considering drawdown as risk metric).

Closed trade stats paint the same picture.

Closed Trade Stats


Expectancy %: +.20% vs. +5.37%

I don't believe that Kristjan's method of trading is definitively 'better' than Minervini's by any means. I suspect that Kris' style has outperformed relative to Minervini's in large part because of stock selection. Median mkt cap of stocks traded has been $10.5B (MM) vs. $650M (KK). Small caps (highly speculative companies in particular) have outperformed mid and large caps by a huge margin so far this year. Russell-2000 up ~15.5% YTD while the S&P500 is up only ~4.5%. In a market led by large caps I'd expect Minervini's style to perform better but I'm interested to see firsthand if that hypothesis proves to be true once the regime shifts.

Given the compelling evidence and the current market conditions I have decided to begin trading Kristjan's style in my USIC account beginning this week.

I'm out of town for a ski trip most of this coming week so my trading activity will be quite minimal as I enjoy some treeskiing - fresh powder too with any luck.

That's it for my mid-month update, cheers all!

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  #35 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: TD Ameritrade
Trading: Equities, Treasuries, Gold
 
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Lots of failed breakouts in the names I'm following closely. In combination with the fact that indexes have made a sizable advance recently, treasuries bonds have gotten killed, and few buyable setups, I am anticipating a correction or some sideways action at the least. Financials were the one bright spot today and I bought both DFS and SYF with 1/10 size positions.

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  #36 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: TD Ameritrade
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You guys know I love analyzing trade statistics. I ran a test on my 2020 trades and bucketed into two categories: Companies I know nothing about (purely technical setup) vs. companies whose products/service I am at least aware of. Ex: TGTX has therapeutics in their name but I don't know anything else about the company vs. PINS, a site I've been on and am familiar with.





Performance: Known vs. Unknown
Win Rate: 69% / 38%
W/L %: 3.11 / 1.45
W/L R: 2.29 / 1.31
Expectancy %: 5.95% / -.13%
Expectancy R: .89 / -.11

I have two possible explanations
1) I subconsciously manage positions differently in companies I understand.
2) During the dataset 'Name Brand' stocks performed better at large.

Either way I think I'm going to focus on stocks that I understand moving forward!

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Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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mtzimmer1 View Post
You guys know I love analyzing trade statistics. I ran a test on my 2020 trades and bucketed into two categories: Companies I know nothing about (purely technical setup) vs. companies whose products/service I am at least aware of. Ex: TGTX has therapeutics in their name but I don't know anything else about the company vs. PINS, a site I've been on and am familiar with.





Performance: Known vs. Unknown
Win Rate: 69% / 38%
W/L %: 3.11 / 1.45
W/L R: 2.29 / 1.31
Expectancy %: 5.95% / -.13%
Expectancy R: .89 / -.11

I have two possible explanations
1) I subconsciously manage positions differently in companies I understand.
2) During the dataset 'Name Brand' stocks performed better at large.

Either way I think I'm going to focus on stocks that I understand moving forward!

Excellent observation! These are the kind of nuggets which can take your trading to the next level.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
Upstate NY
 
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Broker: TD Ameritrade
Trading: Equities, Treasuries, Gold
 
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Silver Dragon View Post
Excellent observation! These are the kind of nuggets which can take your trading to the next level.

Robert

Thanks Robert. Little by little, bit by bit! Good thing I'm a data junkie and love this stuff!

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