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Learning from a Market Wizard: Swinging Stocks in the Style of Mark Minervini


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Learning from a Market Wizard: Swinging Stocks in the Style of Mark Minervini

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  #1 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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While not specific to futures trading, I wanted to start this journal on futures.io because it is THE best online trading forum!

There are many terms used to describe the broad style of trading in which I am currently engaged - trend following, momentum, breakout, and growth are but a few of the more popular titles. Regardless of verbiage the objective remains the same: participate in trends that are already underway in an effort to catch the 'meat of the move.' The fundamental underlying belief is that trends are more likely to continue than they are to reverse.

A 2014 study by Capital Fund Management found trend following to be a "genuine market anomaly" to the strong correlation observed between "risk premium" and tail-risk skewness. In other words, over the long run we would expect 'riskier' assets or trading strategies in this case to yield higher net returns. Trend following was found to have unusually high sharpe ratios in conjunction with negative skew.


link to study: https://www.cfm.fr/insights/risk-premia-asymmetric-tail-risks-and-excess-returns/

It has been the conclusion of my own research that a high percentage of traders/investors who have achieved exceptional performance have done so utilizing a strategy that is trend following in nature. Moreover trend traders have found success since the inception of stock markets - from Jesse Livermore in the early 1900's to Darvas in the middle of the century to the current 2020 US Investing Championship contestants the strategy has not yet fallen out of favor. Such a long track record and many variations of a central theme suggests to me that trend following exploits a permanent characteristic of the markets.

The particular style of trading that I will be journaling about is closely resemblant to the strategy outlined by Mark Minervini in his books. In short I will be looking to buy strong stocks as they break out of properly formed bases. Let's break this down.

A strong stock is one that has outperformed both the index and its sector during the most recent months. Typically these will be exciting companies offering a new product or service. Sometimes they are recent IPO's while other times they are well-established companies with a new and innovative idea. In the futures world, there are many stories of great fortunes being built trading persistent trends in commodities.

A properly formed base, as defined by Mark Minervini, must have a few characteristics. To qualify as a VCP (volatility contraction pivot) each successive pullback in price must be smaller in magnitude from high to low than the previous one. Volume should trend lower from the left to the right side of the base suggesting that less and less supply is coming to market. While not essential, it is preferable to see the days with the lowest volume and narrowest ranges occur during the final contraction before the buy point. In short, we want to see a stock quiet down before breaking out.

Here is an excerpt from Mark Minervini's book that explains VCP's succinctly.



The expectation here is that, after undergoing the basing process, a strong stock is likely to continue its ascent.

Risk management is integral to this and every trading approach. I set my stops at the low of the final contraction - a location that will only get hit if the stock fails to properly break out.

In 2021 I am competing in the US Investing Championship and this strategy is an integral component in my approach to the competition. I am coming into this year with no open positions and intend to document every new trade in this journal.

In 2020 I yielded 17% between September, when I began trading this system live, and the end of the year.

Here's to an epic New Year!

-Zimmer

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  #2 (permalink)
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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Resources:

Books:
"How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market" by Nicolas Darvas
"Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market" by Mark Minervini
"Think and Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules and Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard" by Mark Minervini
"How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times Or Bad" by William O'Neil
"Unholy Grails: A New Road to Wealth" by Nick Radge

YouTube:
IBD Podcasts by Investors Business Daily
Market Chat by Richard Moglen
All of Mark Minervini's videos

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What is the average frequency of trade opportunities with this system? And average time in market?

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trendisyourfriend View Post
What is the average frequency of trade opportunities with this system? And average time in market?

Over the past four months I've opened 90 trades for an average of ~1 buy per day. Number of trade opportunities depends greatly on market conditions as setups will be plentiful during bull markets and scarce during bear markets.

My average trade duration has been 17 calendar days so far.

-Zimmer

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I'm looking forward to this journal, in no small part due to the fact that I've also been working on some breakout ideas over the past several months, and, like you, have had some encouraging results applying my concepts to individual stocks on daily (as opposed to intraday) timeframes. That said, I do feel that broader market conditions have been extremely supportive of trend-following and breakout strategies in general over the past several months, and I worry that I won't be able to achieve the same results if and when market conditions invariably change. This is something I'll clearly need to work on.

Either way I wish you great success, and hope to maybe pick up a few good pearls by reading your journal. In the meantime perhaps I'll read some of Minervini's published work as well. I've been following him on twitter for a while and like what I've seen so far.

May I ask how you're screening your stocks? I've been tinkering around with finviz.com but ideally would like to create my own custom technical studies, which I don't believe I can do on that platform.

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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Schnook View Post
I'm looking forward to this journal, in no small part due to the fact that I've also been working on some breakout ideas over the past several months, and, like you, have had some encouraging results applying my concepts to individual stocks on daily (as opposed to intraday) timeframes. That said, I do feel that broader market conditions have been extremely supportive of trend-following and breakout strategies in general over the past several months, and I worry that I won't be able to achieve the same results if and when market conditions invariably change. This is something I'll clearly need to work on.

Either way I wish you great success, and hope to maybe pick up a few good pearls by reading your journal. In the meantime perhaps I'll read some of Minervini's published work as well. I've been following him on twitter for a while and like what I've seen so far.

May I ask how you're screening your stocks? I've been tinkering around with finviz.com but ideally would like to create my own custom technical studies, which I don't believe I can do on that platform.

Schnook, it is a pleasure to read and respond to your comment!

Recently I've been sorting my watchlists by length of time in days since the most recent high from longest to shortest. In doing so I start by looking at the stocks with the most mature bases. I find stocks from two primary sources: 1) colleagues, and 2) reviewing the new 52 week highs list every day. In order to add a stock to my watchlist the company needs to either have solid sales/earnings growth, or have an innovative product or service that I believe to have great disruptive potential. Companies that satisfy both criteria are optimal!

Cheers,
-Zimmer

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Bought NVDA @ 539.465, Stop 510.52


NVDA Daily

The solid green line was the pivot level I originally identified. In a closer look last night I realized that the more recent high marked with dashed green and labeled 'Pocket Pivot' may be buyable as well if volume surged as price traded through that level.

NVDA Intraday

Price ripped through the 'Pocket Pivot' level (labeled 1) on elevated volume but by the time the alert went off and I calculated my share size price had already advanced. I've learned it is best to exercise restraint and not chase entries because doing so opens the door to trade plan deviation.

As price traded through the originally marked pivot level (labeled 2) on increased volume I initiated a position.

Open Positions:
NVDA

-Zimmer

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Bought OZON today. Dominant e-commerce company in Russia with impressive growth figures. Clean VCP setup on the chart finalized by the inside day pocket pivot that formed yesterday.

OZON Daily


Open Positions:
NVDA
OZON

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Stopped out of NVDA.

Bought LPRO @ 34.7399, Stop 32.76


1.6 LPRO Daily


1.6 LPRO Intraday


I love everything about this LPRO buy. IPO'd less than a year ago. Disruptive technology. Relative strength. VCP base pattern. Huge volume surge intraday as price cleared the pivot.

Open Positions:
OZON
LPRO

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Bought KSS @ 42.20, Stop 38.64
Bought LMND @ 126.52, Stop 117.99


1.7 KSS Daily

$KSS is perhaps an unpopular pick for this style of trading but I can't argue with the relative strength of the past few months. This is very much a play on reopening, stimulus, and continued growth in new construction and existing home sales. Technically a well formed HTF/VCP.

1.7 LMND Daily

$LMND: Recent IPO. Disruptive Technology that has only scratched the surface of addressable market. Meets the High Tight Flag/Power Play criteria + clear VCP pattern.

1.7 LMND Intraday

I see the final contraction as the time period from 12:45-14:52 yesterday which explains the stop placement.

LMND hit my 2R target today and I took half off. Always nice to have a trade take off right out of the gate.

Open Positions:
OZON
LPRO
KSS
LMND

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Bought LOW @ 165.76, Stop 157.12
Bought DSGX @ 60.79, Stop 56.54

1.8 LOW Daily

$LOW is another play on a continued boom in new construction and remodels. Technicals look great to me with volume drying up in noticeably in the past two weeks. Potentially emerging from this cheat here.

1.8 DSGX Daily

$DSGX: Talk about a business with consistent revenue and earnings growth... the numbers aren't crazy but seem very sustainable. Long base with VCP characteristics. Nice end of day breakout today. Interested to see if the buying continues into Monday.

Open Positions:
OZON
LPRO
KSS
LMND
LOW
DSGX

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Week 1

Ended Week 1 with a YTD gain of $1,386 and 2.27%

On Tuesday I passed on a setup because volume did not increase as the stock traded through the pivot price. The next day the stock ripped up 9% prompting me to question whether or not this volume requirement is well-based. I checked my stats for the past four months and determined that volume on the day of breakout had little to no noticeable correlation to trade outcome. This experience was a positive as it inspired me to remove a baseless entry condition.

-Zimmer

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All I did today was add to KSS and tighten up the stop on the whole position.

1.11 KSS Daily

KSS and the entire retail sector was showing relative strength this morning. Other than that, nothing to report.

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Bought TGTX @ 55.93, Stop 51.30
Bought NTRA @ 113.91, Stop 108.42
Sold DSGX ahead of stop in order to....
Buy PYPL @ 243.72, Stop 233.82


1.13 TGTX Daily

In hindsight I think the Pocket Pivot was the better buy location but I'm long from 55.93, stop 51.30. Like this HTF setup but not seeing much followthrough yet. Will give it benefit of the doubt.

1.13 NTRA Daily

Hard to find a short-term Cup w/ Handle that looks much nicer than this one. Love the volume taper as price came up the right side and the tight ranges of the past three days. Long from 113.91

1.13 PYPL Daily Marked Up.png

I see this little Cup w/ Handle as a continuation or secondary base after the longer VCP that formed between September and December. $PYPL is just a great all-around CANSLIM name that checks all the right boxes.

Open Positions:
OZON
LPRO
KSS
LMND
LOW
TGTX
NTRA
PYPL

117% invested here. Sold DSGX in order to buy PYPL because I liked the setup on PYPL but didn't want to increase my notional exposure. My positions have some traction but it doesn't feel like a frictionless environment enough to justify getting deeply into margin.

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Somehow I missed Thursday and Friday of last week!

1/14/2021 (Thursday)

Sold 1/4 OZON (1/4 remaining)
Sold 1/4 LMND (1/4 remaining)
Stopped out TGTX (0 remaining)
Sold all NTRA (0 remaining)
Sold 1/2 PYPL (1/2 remaining)

Wednesday night my scans turned up only seven buyable setups (in the past 4-5 months this last has gotten up to 40 names at times) which had me in caution mode. TGTX closed near lows on Wednesday and NTRA closed below the pivot after moving up a decent amount. Because breakouts weren't getting much traction and the watchlist was slim I was very aggressive with closing positions and reducing exposure.

1/15/2021 (Friday)

Sold 1/2 PYPL (0 remaining)
Sold 1/2 LPRO (1/2 remaining)
Bought 1/10 PLTR (diagnostic position)

With the early session weakness on Friday I was pleased to have reduced my exposure significantly the day before. At this point I was fully in caution mode. As opposed to not trading I take very small positions to serve as real-time live diagnostics. These small positions won't really push the P/L needle either direction but they will give me valuable information on the pulse of the market. Once these and any previous positions not stopped out during a correction begin to gain traction and the watchlist of buyable setups begins to widen I greenlight bigger size for any new opening transactions. This method of portfolio management and position sizing will likely decrease performance marginally during short and shallow corrections but make up for it in spades during a protracted bear market or crash.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (1)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (1)
PLTR (1/10 diagnostic)

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Bought 1/10 positions in CALX and TT.

On balance my three diagnostic positions are still not getting much traction. CALX was a nice breakout today. TT was a somewhat weak close. PLTR had neutral action today.

Sold 1/4 LOW position (3/4 remaining)

Open Positions:
OZON(1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (1)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (3/4)
PLTR (1/10 diagnostic)
CALX (1/10 diagnostic)
TT (1/10 diagnostic)
54% invested

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Bought more diagnostic positions: TDOC and RDFN.

Now have six of these smaller positions open and still not getting much traction on any but TDOC and, to a lesser extent, CALX. Seems that sizing down has been the right decision thus far. Will continue to trade small until conditions improve.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (1)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (3/4)
PLTR (1/10 diagnostic)
CALX (1/10 diagnostic)
TT (1/10 diagnostic)
TDOC (1/10 diagnostic)
RDFN (1/10 diagnostic)

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Sold 1/2 CALX, everything else unchanged

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Stopped on RDFN
Sold 1/2 PLTR at 2R (1/20 remaining)

My diagnostic positions have begun to gain traction with only one of the five hitting stop, one down slightly, and three showing unrealized gain. TDOC was a nice breakout that has held up thus far. PLTR chopped sideways but then broke out strongly today. Nothing crazy in CALX but appears to be constructive price action post-breakout.

Number of buyable setups seems to be on par for Mondays so far this year despite tightening up my scan criteria today.




Overall I feel that the market has given me signs to begin getting more aggressive. Pending price action I intend to scale up size for new positions next week to at least 1/2 size from 1/10.

Interesting data shared with me by a trading colleague practicing a similar approach suggests that both Average Daily Dollar Volume (left) and Average Daily Dollar Volume divided by Market Cap or Percentage of Shares Outstanding Transacted per Day (top) impact the expectancy of breakout trades. Credit: https://twitter.com/enter_order

Liquidity and Market Cap vs. Expectancy


My takeaway from this is to filter out all stocks that don't satisfy both of the following criteria: 50-Day Median (decrease effect of outliers) Daily Dollar Volume > $100M AND MDDV / Mkt Cap > 1%

This effectively wipes out over 2/3 of the scan results. Considering this I see the 15 setups currently buyable as well above average relative to the looser scan I've been running prior to today.

Open Positions:
OZON (1/4)
LPRO (1/2)
KSS (1)
LMND (1/4)
LOW (3/4)
PLTR (1/20 diagnostic)
CALX (1/20 diagnostic)
TT (1/10 diagnostic)
TDOC (1/10 diagnostic)
53% Invested

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Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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Posts: 756 since Dec 2018
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Week 3 Results


+$3,975.35 on $61.2k starting balance
+6.49% YTD
62% Average Exposure

Exposure

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Last Updated on January 22, 2021


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