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Wamo's Trading Journal


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Wamo's Trading Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

The purpose of this journal is to document and help me recognize and keep track of my decisions.

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  #2 (permalink)
wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Emini-S&P
12/11 Friday finished with a poor high and poor low.

12/13 Overnight (OVN) opens at 3670 takes out that poor high. Not sure what contributed to that, probably vaccine news
Thought about shorting at VPOC at 73 seeing that gap, but overnight is overnight, will not go in unless there's a trend.

-Profile wise I know it's probably wrong to profile a overnight market, this is between a non trend to, normal day.
IB is about med for overnight overnight


Levels:

Liquidity at 3709, 3682
Overnight inventories: should be long unless gap closes
Good high so far in Q period
Poor low 12-11 Fri RTH- ~3624.50
Mid RTH 12-11 is at 3641.50
Close 12-11 is at 3652.75



-As of December 8th this is the market context Asset Managers are short I want to check this again next Tuesday

Traders in Financial Futures - Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dealer : Asset Manager/ : Leveraged : Other : Nonreportable :
Intermediary : Institutional : Funds : Reportables : Positions :
Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E-MINI S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE ($50 X S&P 500 INDEX)
CFTC Code #13874A Open Interest is 3,400,173
Positions
314,256 605,880 187,377 1,278,578 521,736 323,486 290,448 443,713 552,161 115,334 369,473 24,599 313,935 371,749

Changes from: December 1, 2020 Total Change is: 132,445
5,830 26,410 38,014 34,534 -10,024 768 10,180 19,355 44,934 -1,496 3,930 1,758 -2,076 7,300

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.2 17.8 5.5 37.6 15.3 9.5 8.5 13.0 16.2 3.4 10.9 0.7 9.2 10.9

Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 587
35 38 47 157 91 127 71 101 95 47 47 34

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  #3 (permalink)
wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received


12/14 RTH
-Normal variation type day overnight
-bookmap crashed again
-had about 6h54min of sleep

Levels
- looks like mch of the 300 got pulled at 3682 last night and moved up tot 3685
-ovn inventories long
-delta slightly long 66386vs 65357
-poor high, poor low ovn
-open out of balance

-RTY up 0.6~%
-ES up 0.2X %
-NQ up 0.1X%

-GC down -0.7X%


Scenario1:
- short ovn inventory rebalance, off of ovn hb to ovn VAL

Scenario2:
- long ovn hb or close

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wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

12/14
-VPOC at 79 discovering higher, above close, back down VPOC below close, back up above close (large trades start 3676 900Vol that's about ovn hb)

936 New liquidity block between 62-68
938am looks like NQ is popping , same goes RTY

-ES back at ovn highs, at 85 some were pulled some were taken. Tagging back to ovn highs after making new highs

946 took a trade off of RTH mid 12-9 long, went up to 87. BM showed red. Had about 1.2K profit didn't take it. took at $37 loss.

949 went slightly below to 84.50 back up to 88. today's VPOC still at 85.50. It couldn't break on second try, going to see how the B period shakes out.

book pressure at about 3710 taken off

No rebalancing ovn inventories

956 low tick and ad 1K at the moment



1000 looking for the pop at start of B period did not get it, out -$37 will be looking at a buy at vpoc instead

1006 I believe that was my only opportunity this morning.

1009 damn bookmap is all red at the moment, sellers coming in. Somebody let go 1K at 3689.50

1012 VPOC has moved up 87.25
1015 Volume is accumulating at this area between 86-87, seems like today will be a normal profile today, question is now which way?
1019 VPOC is now at 89
1022 There's about 1376 on the bid at 3689 would cancel out the asks at the open
1029 Lets see what C period tells us
1030 poor high c period, held. Took the the trade off of VPOC. Right at this time I was going against 836 onthe bid at 3690
1038 Froze up down 1700 done for the day as C matched B period lows








Takeaways:
I should watch the book imbalance mechanics again
safer bet probably to take the more significant long off of rth mid 12-9.
Set automatic stops beyond $750 those trades don't work out anyways

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wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

1130-C brings market past lows, this looks like it's moving towards rebalancing ovn inventories, E period now at ovn lows


1144 E period extreme looks good for a long, I see 485 at the bid on bm
1332 H period has touched 12-11 rth settle so we are balanced.

Recap/Review 12/14 RTH session

-I had a bias coming in which is long, which is fine, but entry is especially important

Good:
- Was able to see after the fact that sellers coming in at 1030
- Was able to see poor high in C period

Bad
- Poor high in C period is one data point was not taken into conjunction of the 3.6K at the bid at top.
- Was not able to cut losses for one bad decision- actionable: I can set hard stops at 750
-Entry point was poor- in this case the only place to enter was not based on intraday levels, I mentioned that I had one entry for the long this morning that was at 85

I probably could have got both of these, but just poor location-actionable: stick to the location for fast trades.

Scenario1:
- short ovn inventory rebalance, off of ovn hb to ovn VAL

Scenario2:
- long ovn hb or close

Everything else was pretty much spot on besides I discounted the scenario that I could reverse:
- looks like mch of the 300 got pulled at 3682 last night and moved up tot 3685
-ovn inventories long
-delta slightly long 66386vs 65357
-poor high, poor low ovn
-open out of balance


Developing:

- I recommend next time pull the trigger on the sell when red is seen on bm
- I recommend setting hard stops of 750 (done)
- I recommend sticking to well defined trade locations for fast trades.

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  #6 (permalink)
wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Emini-S&P 12/14 OVN

Profile wise I know it's probably wrong to profile a overnight market, this will be a neutral to neutral extreme profile .



-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: Neutral


Levels:

Liquidity at 73- VPOC previous ovn session
60- TPO POC
down below- 30, 03






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  #7 (permalink)
wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

12/15
Woke up late 10 mins left till open

Levels
Asks at: 3700, 93, 73

ovn was a dd profile, poor high
ovn inventories long.

Scenario Long: Tag mid RTH 12-14

Scenario Short: Tag mid RTH at least rebalance to ovn hb
Delta is 75170 vs 71992 this morning
AD=944
All indices are up

Open within range

935- takes out ovn high
938 new book pressure at 80- ~130 Ask
942 pretty mch neglibile now, block is firm at 75 ~337

943 somebody let go 95 at 67
946-66 at ask at 66

949- shorted mid rth 12-14 saw some bids come in let go at -750 will wait now for the next opp. (good location, bad timing)
955 seems very negative this morning- new book pressure 80 ~120
1041- lots of sellers till C period is moving down, I don't really have anything to lean on ovn hb is close
1043- 900 at ask at 59.50, 600 at ask at 62
1050- verily wide IB=27 actually 12-14 was 29. So I would call this a normal day again.
1051- bids 423 at 58. this was in C period- and reversal was correct

1056- institutions are long, non reportables are also long as of 12*8 raders in Financial Futures - Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dealer : Asset Manager/ : Leveraged : Other : Nonreportable :
Intermediary : Institutional : Funds : Reportables : Positions :
Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P 500 Consolidated - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00)
CFTC Code #13874+ Open Interest is 728,527
Positions
60,651 135,469 45,307 256,716 104,347 64,697 52,728 84,105 134,366 23,067 73,895 4,920 86,075 81,422

Changes from: December 1, 2020 Total Change is: 29,719
-356 6,114 9,369 6,907 -2,005 154 1,431 2,942 11,128 -300 985 152 1,234 880

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.3 18.6 6.2 35.2 14.3 8.9 7.2 11.5 18.4 3.2 10.1 0.7 11.8 11.2

Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 591
35 38 48 157 91 127 69 107 101 47 47 34



1127- tagged ovn hb that was the rotation point, That was probably the best trade at 52.50
1231- E period through RTH mid 12-14, F period possible long there, poor high G period.
1247- seems like it's breaking IBH at G period
1245 pulled moved up 386, only 122 executed
1257 442 pulled at 77
1258 240 at 80 moved up
1300 we are now at open RTH 12-14
1338 Lot of sellers between 84-70 maybe looing for a short at eod if this doesn't attack the poor high on 12-14rth

1417- stop filled went up J period there was a guy that bought 100 at 86.50
1456- close shop for the day. -1800

1644- poor high

2042- speculating short after hours adding visibility to NQ
NQ- short at RTH VAH
ES-Short at RTH VPOC
got out even



Take aways
1. Hindsight 20-20 , rotation was at I guessed it ovn hb- suggestion is to wait until the setup comes to me
2. Scenario long should look at testing ovn levels first. Moderna news came out but regardless.
3. Short scenario played out but location was wrong- should wait until next period for the retest, or just avoid trading B period altogether, unless it's a trend day.
4. Good that I stayed out of C period short good read, 1051- bids 423 at 58. this was in C period- and reversal was correct after a retest in D period
5. There was a possible long here- 1127- tagged ovn hb that was the rotation point, That was probably the best trade at 52.50- I could recommend taking a long given that fact (4) was support short term
6. Only trade the best setups I suggest, others are not worth the time
7. Poor high RTH

#ovn_hb

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  #8 (permalink)
wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Emini-S&P 12/15 ovn

Turning into a neutral/neutral extreme profile.
-Feels like it's squeezing back up into 12-8 RTH
-no prominent VPOC
-single prints on the ES but not on the NQ (I know jumping around a little bit)
-Betting on it to tag the single prints



-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: Bullish

Levels: 3700 Ask (again)


2316-liking a short at the moment on the NQ, target somewhere in VA 12598 area. Target set at 12567.25. Location may be a little better than the ES



#single_prints









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  #9 (permalink)
wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

12/16 RTH

OVN inventories rebalanced- ES and NQ
Both ovn hb are hit in ES and NQ
Both hanging ard prominent POC ovn

ES level 3700 asks are pulled before they got hit

FOMC today

1323- Normal day, I only expect top IB to be broken
1323- buying by short time frame players at Prominment POC OVN- trigger
1329- sellers here 700 at 90
1513- up 625 I think this got executed at 1359 right before FOMC so I am still good under the rules
1514- finishing up like a normal variation day like I expected.







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  #10 (permalink)
wamo88
Seattle
 
 
Posts: 141 since May 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received


Emini-S&P 12/16 ovn

-very small IB looks like another neutral or DD day
-prominent poc at 93
-market is balanced
-single prints did not get tapped


-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: Bullish

2024- moving up away from prominent poc

Liquidity stacked up top at
740
735
725
715
705






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