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Wamo's Trading Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
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The purpose of this journal is to document and help me recognize and keep track of my decisions.

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Emini-S&P
12/11 Friday finished with a poor high and poor low.

12/13 Overnight (OVN) opens at 3670 takes out that poor high. Not sure what contributed to that, probably vaccine news
Thought about shorting at VPOC at 73 seeing that gap, but overnight is overnight, will not go in unless there's a trend.

-Profile wise I know it's probably wrong to profile a overnight market, this is between a non trend to, normal day.
IB is about med for overnight overnight


Levels:

Liquidity at 3709, 3682
Overnight inventories: should be long unless gap closes
Good high so far in Q period
Poor low 12-11 Fri RTH- ~3624.50
Mid RTH 12-11 is at 3641.50
Close 12-11 is at 3652.75



-As of December 8th this is the market context Asset Managers are short I want to check this again next Tuesday

Traders in Financial Futures - Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dealer : Asset Manager/ : Leveraged : Other : Nonreportable :
Intermediary : Institutional : Funds : Reportables : Positions :
Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E-MINI S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE ($50 X S&P 500 INDEX)
CFTC Code #13874A Open Interest is 3,400,173
Positions
314,256 605,880 187,377 1,278,578 521,736 323,486 290,448 443,713 552,161 115,334 369,473 24,599 313,935 371,749

Changes from: December 1, 2020 Total Change is: 132,445
5,830 26,410 38,014 34,534 -10,024 768 10,180 19,355 44,934 -1,496 3,930 1,758 -2,076 7,300

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.2 17.8 5.5 37.6 15.3 9.5 8.5 13.0 16.2 3.4 10.9 0.7 9.2 10.9

Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 587
35 38 47 157 91 127 71 101 95 47 47 34

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  #3 (permalink)
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12/14 RTH
-Normal variation type day overnight
-bookmap crashed again
-had about 6h54min of sleep

Levels
- looks like mch of the 300 got pulled at 3682 last night and moved up tot 3685
-ovn inventories long
-delta slightly long 66386vs 65357
-poor high, poor low ovn
-open out of balance

-RTY up 0.6~%
-ES up 0.2X %
-NQ up 0.1X%

-GC down -0.7X%


Scenario1:
- short ovn inventory rebalance, off of ovn hb to ovn VAL

Scenario2:
- long ovn hb or close

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  #4 (permalink)
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12/14
-VPOC at 79 discovering higher, above close, back down VPOC below close, back up above close (large trades start 3676 900Vol that's about ovn hb)

936 New liquidity block between 62-68
938am looks like NQ is popping , same goes RTY

-ES back at ovn highs, at 85 some were pulled some were taken. Tagging back to ovn highs after making new highs

946 took a trade off of RTH mid 12-9 long, went up to 87. BM showed red. Had about 1.2K profit didn't take it. took at $37 loss.

949 went slightly below to 84.50 back up to 88. today's VPOC still at 85.50. It couldn't break on second try, going to see how the B period shakes out.

book pressure at about 3710 taken off

No rebalancing ovn inventories

956 low tick and ad 1K at the moment



1000 looking for the pop at start of B period did not get it, out -$37 will be looking at a buy at vpoc instead

1006 I believe that was my only opportunity this morning.

1009 damn bookmap is all red at the moment, sellers coming in. Somebody let go 1K at 3689.50

1012 VPOC has moved up 87.25
1015 Volume is accumulating at this area between 86-87, seems like today will be a normal profile today, question is now which way?
1019 VPOC is now at 89
1022 There's about 1376 on the bid at 3689 would cancel out the asks at the open
1029 Lets see what C period tells us
1030 poor high c period, held. Took the the trade off of VPOC. Right at this time I was going against 836 onthe bid at 3690
1038 Froze up down 1700 done for the day as C matched B period lows








Takeaways:
I should watch the book imbalance mechanics again
safer bet probably to take the more significant long off of rth mid 12-9.
Set automatic stops beyond $750 those trades don't work out anyways

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1130-C brings market past lows, this looks like it's moving towards rebalancing ovn inventories, E period now at ovn lows


1144 E period extreme looks good for a long, I see 485 at the bid on bm
1332 H period has touched 12-11 rth settle so we are balanced.

Recap/Review 12/14 RTH session

-I had a bias coming in which is long, which is fine, but entry is especially important

Good:
- Was able to see after the fact that sellers coming in at 1030
- Was able to see poor high in C period

Bad
- Poor high in C period is one data point was not taken into conjunction of the 3.6K at the bid at top.
- Was not able to cut losses for one bad decision- actionable: I can set hard stops at 750
-Entry point was poor- in this case the only place to enter was not based on intraday levels, I mentioned that I had one entry for the long this morning that was at 85

I probably could have got both of these, but just poor location-actionable: stick to the location for fast trades.

Scenario1:
- short ovn inventory rebalance, off of ovn hb to ovn VAL

Scenario2:
- long ovn hb or close

Everything else was pretty much spot on besides I discounted the scenario that I could reverse:
- looks like mch of the 300 got pulled at 3682 last night and moved up tot 3685
-ovn inventories long
-delta slightly long 66386vs 65357
-poor high, poor low ovn
-open out of balance


Developing:

- I recommend next time pull the trigger on the sell when red is seen on bm
- I recommend setting hard stops of 750 (done)
- I recommend sticking to well defined trade locations for fast trades.

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Emini-S&P 12/14 OVN

Profile wise I know it's probably wrong to profile a overnight market, this will be a neutral to neutral extreme profile .



-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: Neutral


Levels:

Liquidity at 73- VPOC previous ovn session
60- TPO POC
down below- 30, 03






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12/15
Woke up late 10 mins left till open

Levels
Asks at: 3700, 93, 73

ovn was a dd profile, poor high
ovn inventories long.

Scenario Long: Tag mid RTH 12-14

Scenario Short: Tag mid RTH at least rebalance to ovn hb
Delta is 75170 vs 71992 this morning
AD=944
All indices are up

Open within range

935- takes out ovn high
938 new book pressure at 80- ~130 Ask
942 pretty mch neglibile now, block is firm at 75 ~337

943 somebody let go 95 at 67
946-66 at ask at 66

949- shorted mid rth 12-14 saw some bids come in let go at -750 will wait now for the next opp. (good location, bad timing)
955 seems very negative this morning- new book pressure 80 ~120
1041- lots of sellers till C period is moving down, I don't really have anything to lean on ovn hb is close
1043- 900 at ask at 59.50, 600 at ask at 62
1050- verily wide IB=27 actually 12-14 was 29. So I would call this a normal day again.
1051- bids 423 at 58. this was in C period- and reversal was correct

1056- institutions are long, non reportables are also long as of 12*8 raders in Financial Futures - Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dealer : Asset Manager/ : Leveraged : Other : Nonreportable :
Intermediary : Institutional : Funds : Reportables : Positions :
Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P 500 Consolidated - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00)
CFTC Code #13874+ Open Interest is 728,527
Positions
60,651 135,469 45,307 256,716 104,347 64,697 52,728 84,105 134,366 23,067 73,895 4,920 86,075 81,422

Changes from: December 1, 2020 Total Change is: 29,719
-356 6,114 9,369 6,907 -2,005 154 1,431 2,942 11,128 -300 985 152 1,234 880

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.3 18.6 6.2 35.2 14.3 8.9 7.2 11.5 18.4 3.2 10.1 0.7 11.8 11.2

Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 591
35 38 48 157 91 127 69 107 101 47 47 34



1127- tagged ovn hb that was the rotation point, That was probably the best trade at 52.50
1231- E period through RTH mid 12-14, F period possible long there, poor high G period.
1247- seems like it's breaking IBH at G period
1245 pulled moved up 386, only 122 executed
1257 442 pulled at 77
1258 240 at 80 moved up
1300 we are now at open RTH 12-14
1338 Lot of sellers between 84-70 maybe looing for a short at eod if this doesn't attack the poor high on 12-14rth

1417- stop filled went up J period there was a guy that bought 100 at 86.50
1456- close shop for the day. -1800

1644- poor high

2042- speculating short after hours adding visibility to NQ
NQ- short at RTH VAH
ES-Short at RTH VPOC
got out even



Take aways
1. Hindsight 20-20 , rotation was at I guessed it ovn hb- suggestion is to wait until the setup comes to me
2. Scenario long should look at testing ovn levels first. Moderna news came out but regardless.
3. Short scenario played out but location was wrong- should wait until next period for the retest, or just avoid trading B period altogether, unless it's a trend day.
4. Good that I stayed out of C period short good read, 1051- bids 423 at 58. this was in C period- and reversal was correct after a retest in D period
5. There was a possible long here- 1127- tagged ovn hb that was the rotation point, That was probably the best trade at 52.50- I could recommend taking a long given that fact (4) was support short term
6. Only trade the best setups I suggest, others are not worth the time
7. Poor high RTH

#ovn_hb

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Emini-S&P 12/15 ovn

Turning into a neutral/neutral extreme profile.
-Feels like it's squeezing back up into 12-8 RTH
-no prominent VPOC
-single prints on the ES but not on the NQ (I know jumping around a little bit)
-Betting on it to tag the single prints



-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: Bullish

Levels: 3700 Ask (again)


2316-liking a short at the moment on the NQ, target somewhere in VA 12598 area. Target set at 12567.25. Location may be a little better than the ES



#single_prints









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12/16 RTH

OVN inventories rebalanced- ES and NQ
Both ovn hb are hit in ES and NQ
Both hanging ard prominent POC ovn

ES level 3700 asks are pulled before they got hit

FOMC today

1323- Normal day, I only expect top IB to be broken
1323- buying by short time frame players at Prominment POC OVN- trigger
1329- sellers here 700 at 90
1513- up 625 I think this got executed at 1359 right before FOMC so I am still good under the rules
1514- finishing up like a normal variation day like I expected.







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Emini-S&P 12/16 ovn

-very small IB looks like another neutral or DD day
-prominent poc at 93
-market is balanced
-single prints did not get tapped


-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: Bullish

2024- moving up away from prominent poc

Liquidity stacked up top at
740
735
725
715
705






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12/17 RTH

OVN inventories Long
weak high ovn
Poor low as well
open out of value

Levels
Above: 40

Below: Flipped to below 35 to 690, 250 to 8750

943- at ovn poc now
949- Short at poc pretty much even the saw some 780 at bid, flipped long that level is just being tested
1000- better short was to lean on the VPOC
1007 poor low, bm shows bids I am still looking at ovn hb as a target
1011- POC has moved down to 08, NQ has almost touched ovn hb it is at 709.25
1013 216 bids at 07 getting kind of scared holding, but the poor lows will definitely be taken out
1014 couple more ticks
1017 I am out, 3 first then 2 at 60
1019 This would be classified short term buyers at ovn hb- could look for a short if I wanted to, feel more comfortable shorting ovn hb

1057- 1146 at 3710 at ask
1104-3740 abv was pulled
1105-weak low c period
1128- so market advertising a A selling period, pretty much balanced c and d. ovn hb is holding. C period just stretches couple ticks below IBL.

Scenario long: if this passes C period keep on watch
Scenario short- if this shorts passes ovn hb I will look for short

1209- doesn't like short so far, large selling tail at E period

1244- looking for a long in G period like here. NQ has popped already, out at 3710
1307- got it
1308- for a normal day I am pretty much done unless there's more upside negating the A period selling tail


Takeaways
-need to look at imbalance%
-finish bm video
-implmenet nb on sierrachart
-up 1.1k today good, I executed just the way I wanted for a normal day

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Emini-S&P 12/16 ovn



-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: Bullish
2204- looks odd saw some buying pressure at 1815 but all downhill from there, both NQ and ES

2205-number bars saw a lack of sellers at the bottom (more work on this later)
2207- from how the early mechanics was setup I would say this is a neutral day, but this is more like a DD now. 2209 -We are back testing the buying tail already on the ES, a little ways to go on the NQ

Not sure what to make of liquidity levels but tomorrow is Friday!







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12/17 RTH

OVN inventory Long
Neutral Extreme day
all time highs
-russel is lagging though yet at ath



ovn hb= 3711.50

932- selling but nb does not show deta going negative likely support at 3714 short term
933- more sellers and 103 bid
934-ovn hb is hit
938* getting myself in trouble in the A period
942* big draw down NQ still holding the ovn hb though
954- on the way down I added but I am done
1005-open drive this could be a trend day
1007-NQ has tagged RTH lows
1010-also quad withcing friday? how does this play into the movement?
1856- no time today to look at the markets but G period proves to be a normal day. Reversal came on poc 12-15 rth.


Takeaways-
1. when the market proves me wrong I am wrong
2. look at number bars a little bit more
3. finish bm vid
4.quad witching friday histrory
5. which types of trades am I good at (short to ovn hb, normal day long at ovn hb selling tail)
6. typical open drive days- tempo

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12/20 ovn

-electronic all time highs, odds will be revisted
-looking for a normal day overnight

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12/21/20 rth

woke up late
market flushed down because of mutation news? VPOC is till up there 3701.25
most likely revisit


1139 go into buy some calls- 9.55 3665 calls- got them filleda t 12.50 market price
1154- odds are short time frames are selling VPOC did not move
1229-poor high
1239- sold the options for +8.4k volume is too light will trade the spy options



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12/21 ovn ES

-electronic all time high still open to be hit at 3724
-settle 3685.50



-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: balanced

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1025 12/22
electronic high still waiting to be taken out
-verily balanced market with value higher


1027- looking for some calls
1041- bid 5 at 0.69 market was .77 370 calls
1022- looks like a normal variation day up
1044- feeling confident that it's going to take out the highs
1050- seems like it doesn't have enough strength
1111- d period one tick lower at ovn hb, seems stf buying
1112- good high and a good low at C period and B period. Odds are it will revisit C period and also D period but which first?
1150- E period down looking for the weak low, 3 points away. Anomally here, the market should not be breaking through both sides. out on the calls
1209- sneaks back up into value
1231- forced to close out of my puts and back into calls
1308- setting up for a neutral day, looking for upside here with I J K period
1438- I period creates weak high
1444- Buying one tick above hb, J K shorted quite quickly, negative book pressure should be lifted from above

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12/22 ovn
low volume day rth 800K
-don't want to be in those conditions

-double distribution so far




-Long Term: Bullish
-Intermediate: Bearish
-Short Term: bearish

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12/23 RTH ES

-BM looks greener than yesterday
-open takes out the poor high last last ovn, pokes up a little out of the balanced range

1040-AD 1300
1041- A period bought at settle then obv sold back a few ticks past the balanced high
1137- seems to be more buyers from bm today
1300- one time framing higher E F G , nearing 3701.50 prom poc, all buyers on nq and es
1427- H period started to see a draw back in momentum, bm still shows buyers, weak sellers at the prom poc, I suspect buyers to come back in here at POC 3696
1513- buying at vpoc, these are short time frame
1532- out of the calls small bet -300
1545- trying to keep the market above the balance area high
1551- in 10 SPX calls at 3690 expiry 24th

Take aways
1. Short term trades are short term trades- I can use the fib expansion to measure a move
2. Get back to the spreadsheet
3. Don't bother trading low volume days

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12/27 ES OVN

I have removed some of the renko charts just to make it cleaner
-I only now have AD, ES (Monthly, weekly, Daily), NQ (Monthly, weekly, Daily), Russel (Monthly, Weekly), BM (ES)

1855- Opened with a blast I suspect short covering, liquidity moved away and shifted higher between 15-20. Most likely visit there tomorrow.
1906-ended otf higher
1923-otf higher made two trades long
1943- book pressure comes in above at 3728, a couple times at 14. I have nothing to really lean on yet to move up. Poor high
2150- liquidity coming in, in naked looking for 17.50
2255- got another one. Did not absorb all.
2300 Stopped one time framing.
2325- d period sells one tick below 12-18 fri high (weak)

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12/28 RTH

1135- just online
rth opened took out overnight ath, looks like a normal day. overnight was P shaped / double distribution.

D period stops one time framing higher

-A period starts buying at ovn prominent poc
-bm looks like more aggresive sellers
-delta buyers at the moment
1315- volume is lower,
1414- NYSE volume still declining
1509-zooming out I see buyers and liqudity com
1512- I decide to move in short nyse volume down looking for a short at the end of day, if that doesn't work out probably some options short. Target at VPOC
1528- got the short L period out at VAH
1855- +2005

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ES OVN 12/28/2020

1856- one time framing higher, I am noting the low volume eod was 587K, definitely short time frame buyers
1923- still one time framing higher
1234- still one time framing higher, I am looking at rebalacning ovn inventories tomorrow

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12-29 RTH

1341- one trade short +1.5K
1351- very light volume
1450- poor lows G period and K period, big swings though poor high I period, looks like it isn't able to go further yet.


Takeaways:

1. low volume 800K too low
2. froze a bit on I period when it already stopped one time framing higher if we have a poor low it is a valid short, once it gets taken out it's fair game. Got chopped up a little bit there

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12/29 ovn

1910- takes out the poor L M high looking like a neutral day. Obviously there's that poor low rth G period at Prom POC 3717.50. Anything below I will short

2353- From T period this has been bought to rth hb then up to Vpoc at the moment, taking a stab at the selling tail in A period. we do have that ovn high on challenged at 3747.75 and a poor low unchallenged rth 3714.50

Long term: Bullish
Intermediate: Bullish
Short: Balanced.

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12/30 ovn

Took a break this rth, not particularly interesting for me vol came in at 600K probably the lowest I've seen rth in awhile

we are in a balance

Long term: bullish
Intermediate: Bullish
short term: Balanced.

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1/4/2021

-new year feeling good
-just made ovn ath at 3755.50, odds are this will get revisited
-weak low U period right at VAH last day

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1/4/21

926-
goals are defined for 100
-We will open around 3761.25
-odds are inventory will rebalance


931- seems like tickeing lower
933-+1.8 out at where ovn bought at h,i period, good fast trade, buyers here are also at VAL ovn
941- this sellling seems excessive now, see what it does it the weaklows ovn, I don't like this sell too much
945- yes there's buyers here at the ovn low, so weak buyers, since it's past the settle odds are this may challenge that
920- 10 mins left in the period it's now trading below the settle again. BM showing bids come in
954- stopped out on short looked good, but was really bouncing aroudn there. Buyers at 4 ticks after ovn weak low
957-looked good, but had to bounce out, buyers here, will wait for the next oppor
1001-B period opens below setttle, do we have a rotation? A low is also 2 ticks above rth hb, few data points turn to short. It's balancing now.
1007- my stops again
1012-good met my target today and then some, stopped at the single prints J period rth. Took 5 off already when I met my targets
1014- pack it up for the day will watch from the sidelines. This doesn't look like new money selling
1129- C period takes out the balance, D period 12-27 sunday rally. We are about 100 points down. Open drive

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  #28 (permalink)
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1/4/2021
1821- trading back in the 3691 area, still otf higher on monthly, almost balance weekly, stopped otf higher on dailies
looks nice
2106- otf higher stopped at W period. About 4 ticks below hb. R period low was about 2 ticks above VPOC (prominent)
2115- volume was back rth at 1.78 M
2249- big srong down c period, buyers at the settle
2311- shorted for ~400 c period



Take aways:

1. if it's an open drive take some profit and just stick with it

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  #29 (permalink)
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1/05/21

933- bought from prom poc to prom poc ovn, loking for a balanceish day with value overlapping higher
938- staying out of this so far, open drive took out ovn poor high. rotation at rth hb. At this point it's shooting in a straight line. Did not even look back at the open.
941- sellers at 710
946- touches the single prints
1046- Kind of scared to do anything at the moment. so far none of the IBs are broken.
1205- E and F one time framing higher
1400- damn it pulled the trigger on I period for a short pop (too short) went out flat even, J period takes out single prints of C rth.
1403- also see they lean into it with liquidity at 12300



Takeaways

1. keep setting the targets

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1/5/21 ovn
2206- overnight one trade in W period
2308- d period is two ticks below the rth low

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1/6/2021
-tried to slow things down a little bit
927- waiting for the open
932- took an impulse trade there it was moving higher A period, seems like there is still some volatility
933- I see rotations
934- took profit on a little trade back to balance seemed to be open test drive. selling at the unchanged. buyign at w so weak high and weak low
946- trading past the settle here, if it's strong if should hold above this J breakout 1-5 rth. Feels very volatile
949- I am telling myself that I need to buy 23 but also this is a bad location in this environment, targets? U selling tail
1053- all the way takes out A period
1235- all the way back up to the balance, multiple distributions today, this is shorting weak high at vpoc
1320- ath H period
1350- my bet is in that this will continue otf higher
1359- took out my longs at 69, there's also a different flow here. MP did tell me the lack of buyers on the run up.

Take aways:

Targets
-review open drive, open test drive scenarios.
-those hard stops come in hany but 50% of my stops are hit today too high
- I think I need to slow down a bit here
-poor high

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ovn ES
1636- quick long, out +265 didn't let me stop get hit. I did expect a volatile night.
1936- right on the dot of the prom poc I don't really like this low, odds are it will be revisited, but we also have the poor high rth wich is sig-nificant.
1956- early stages in market looking at the selling tail T period. My first target should be where it started selling at RTH J period
2216- still long b period, holding on to 2.
2321- out in d period

Long term: bullish
Intermediate: bullish
short term: bullish

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ES rth 1-7

937- open test drive got one off and second was stopped out ~800
938- in another it feels like it's attacking the ath
939- stopped out full, tempo doesn' tseem as high, leaves a very weak low
944- two stop outs. tempo has changed
948- in again
951- took them out
951- In again full
952-stopped out full
953- tempo is diffrent today
1003- all red in bm
1027- just grinding higher, I just have a general fear trading this, once you missed the train it's hard to get on
1037- back in here, nope. Done for the day.

Take aways

1. Watch the liquidty levels- again open test drive

1. Again these open test drive days (this one albeit hard to pick up from the tempo early) this is a bit of a weakness it's too volatile.
Felt like it was grinding higher.

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  #34 (permalink)
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ES 1/8/2021

-ovn continues higher
-yesterday RTH only 999K vol
- lot of emotional buying



934- very volitile- went up rejected, down buought at hb
944- long lookign at the leaning liquidty on the bottom, it's being moved higher overnight
957- chopping around here, looks like no more driving today, looking quite balanced so far
1002-optoins lowered in value dramatically, B period back to 13.75 weak high, weak low, what else.
1009-bm is lit up green though, I am still thinking short but book imblanance tells me otherwise, and it's a friday.
1021- non trend day, buying at prom poc now, I feel like this is going to rebalance ovn
102- short one sellers coming in
1024- the stf not leetting this go easily at rth pit high, but I can probably bet on this
1030- poor c period low, sinlge prints 1-7 within reach
1033- added 1
1052- C peruid reverse
1057- tbh I don't see us rally today at least day time structure is non trend day with a wide balance, I am still looking at the the one data point poor low it will get repaired today or next week. Now I am stuck short though, single prints repaired B period value returned higher. Bought at Prom poc weak low and poor low
1225- just buying buying D E F poor lows 3 wide
1253-again buying off of the lows, it's 4 wide!


1917- crazy friday, actually went neutral extreme back all the way up to make ath at the ovn high of 1-7


Take Aways

Good
1. Identified Areas where of weakness, of ambiguities i.e I knew that it was going to retest the poor lows + weak low the odds are
2. scaled out at the break of the poor low
3. let go the final contract structuraly using a limit and stop approach just kind of clamping until one hits.
4. I got rewarded for the risk that I took

What I am improve on.

1. Patience- waiting until the nuance develops, everybody has trouble with that. Seeing the nuance is good but waiting for it to fully turn into my favor would limit drawdowns and increase gains

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  #35 (permalink)
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ES 1/10/2021

2234- market appears to be in a trend down day overnight, possibly retest the selling tail tonight

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  #36 (permalink)
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ES 1/11/2021

925- structurally this seems to be sound, there doesn't seem to be any anomalies for me. ovn inventories 100% short. Actually settle was way up there so I could have shorted ovn in hindsight.
956- pulled out once it crossed back to the open should have kept it's at at 97 now.
1000- short term I think this is grinding higher poor high AB period
1022- broke out to one tick below ovn hb, we have excess buying tail, we have no continuation on the down side so far, so three days where there's a buying tail, I think this should be enough if we trade back into the upper distribution.
1029- continues extension and otf higher, looks like we are going to leave a little bit of excess starting c period
1046- rotating a bit in C period back to the mid distribution, we are still otf higher
1047- liquidity flipped short at about 1015 odds are would be causing a bit of imablance
1125- D period tests single prints then all the way back up rth highs, shorters again at 1-8 rth poc
1136- poor highs this is perfect on E period
1240- G period sells off at rth 1-8 open weak reference
1249- neuance is I don' tthink this will go further, but I am fighting the weak refernece now
1325- it may stop otf higher here
1332- sellin ghere otf lower H period and I period now
1347- really shorting off now but we are still hanging on to the excess, this looks like a normal variation day still?
1402- hard sellers now from rth poc 1-8 I don't think thi sis valid though tbh, we will see. poor lows
1421- retesting those D period lows which is also a weak reference (ovn VAL)
1423- POC is still up there I am not buying this (not literally)
1824- don't really buy the short here at end of day, we are exaclty closing within value now

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  #37 (permalink)
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ES 1/11/2021

2003- single prints down below otf up in U period
2307-poor high U period


Take aways-

1. let go of my positions before 1700CT

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  #38 (permalink)
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1/12/2021

902- liquidity pushing book down 3807.50
908- in +1 one seeing it move away from POC here
922- comp crashed didn't have visibility out one positive don't know how much yet
934- good failure at prom poc could have shorted but I want to watch
938- that's a weak reference now, as that is ovn hb
939- It's going to test the buying tail for the fourth time.
1021- missed some, B period broke I could have got some at 3790 longs, that was read pretty well, I am thinking next is attacking the weak highs, but this looks like mostly a normal variation day. Volume popped thouhg, book pressure 3807.50 pulled away
1033-C period winds up a bit short
1124- Added to my position seeing it break the poor high put now back down taking a 2 contract hit
1149- decied to add two here at the lows of the day
1221- slaughtered today. Broke A period finally
1313- ok F period buying tail this maybe the nail in the coffin up 10 lots
1333- out 5 lot
1410-out 3
1452- out all
1453- I would say messy rotational day
1459- so we've tested again the buying tail, and actually touched lower

1542- F was about VAH of 1-6-2021 rth

Take aways

1. nuance D period
2. nuance G period what was good catching that
3. Be patient wait for the moment to strike
4. Multiple data points
5. The book imbalnce from below around 1213 check for that

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  #39 (permalink)
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ES1/12/21 onv

-just 1MM in volume today
-neutral day closed within value

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ES 1/13/21 rth

930- woke up late
939- short as few ticks from ovn prom poc
1048- probably a good time to enter looking at the poor highs cd, but no time. buying tail. can enter one i guess. Little late to the game
1215- otf lower
1226- I want to see it stop otf lower then it will complete the comback
1246- up to 10 lot volume is low though, bm shows bids I am betting that this will otf higher
1313- poor high
1321- poor high H period
1335- sized down as I don't see as much continuation on H period
1341- Yes, poor highs I period
1430- continuation J period, poor high K period still with 3 lot
1432- K period poor high
1438- out one lot 2 left
1450- still thinking about those poor highs
1506- so far no continuation on L period, there's so book pressure up top unfortunately, lets see where this lands.
1522- poor lows weak reference
1525- ok in the red a little now, I am feeling this has gone too short
1542- out, knew it back up to L period. O well, I feel I got jibbed. Anyways I am looking for it to retest those, either now or ovn, hoping ovn

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ES ovn

1953- in already ovn hard at work, nuance T period attacking poor highs, made a similar poor high, monitoring for signs of continuation
2029- hovering above break out point it broke back in and I took off 4 lot, if it holds and extends I am adding ot the breakout
2050- exact weak reference Sunday open.
2100- poor highs K period the 3820 liquididty up top moved to 3835. Man this is a slow and tough game
2129- thought it was going to short but didn't turn out that way right away.
2302- disappointed in that one mistake there, maybe I was too invested in that single move. costly, I am hanging around here looking for the market to short, but it doesn't seem like it wants to, broke out came back in and broke out.
002- so muhc leaning on one side that I feel that it must come down the fact that it hasn't is a nuance.
1203- poc just dropped down, all the way back up again

Take aways-

1. with the rotations overnight, defintely not too fun

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ES rth 1-14-2021

928- other reportables took 3K positation and went into shorts
934- I could have leaned on poc, tha twould have increased efficiency by 50%. +900 10 lot
942- looks like this will be a normal variation to neutral day
944- volume is way up today at the open.
945- overnight prices are accepted so far in VA
1006- extends in B period
1020- this is correcting the poor highs and is considered a breakout now
1021- we do have enough room for ath today
1028- probability of expectancy is 30pts
1031- if we go down this will bring us back to the buying tail B period, don't think that is super probable yet with the delta and nyse vol
1038- poor high B period, odds are this need to return
1041- C period back up, odds are this is still in my favor
1045- atr is 47
1150- perfect E period poor low, I am looking to take a hit at least shor term to the downside. Volume, delta still looks good
1249- G period broke, delta and volume still good
1345- this is brewing to take out the highs
1407- odds are the G period buying tail will hold
1416- range is still 13.5 which is sad
1431- rally, rally, rally
1443- volume and bm still does not support a drop
1540- so I was wrong, but the moment I was wrong was probaly K period the poor lows I should have gave it up



Takeaways
1. inventory rebalance-success
2. find something stronger to lean on
3. I was right about the range but wrong side

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ES 1/14/2021 overnight

2126- rejected the with selling tail right at rth hb 1-13
2146- long thinking that if it recoils it will hit 3787
2324- taking a little bit of a different approach calculating midpoints and what it takes to fill the the 25pt range +2850

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ES 1/15/2021

918- This went to exactly where I wanted it
934- monitoring for ocointuation here
938- they shorted prom poc
958- options expiry friday, market seems...odd...balanced. Waiting for the next move
1004-extending down here B period attacking the f pooor lows
1005- lookign for shorts now
1015- caught the train at the peak
1036- C period buying tail, there's volume though, a little bit of a V shaped so this is a nuance
1131-all the way back up to B period, options expiration at work
1327- still on full the other way
1357- looks like it should attack the highs, but we will see.
14-39- smooth so far, K period looking to end this otf lower, still have 5 lot. Belive it or not this should be the inflection point
1448- poor highs K period, possible signs of continuation
1505- close shop for today K period broke.

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ES 1/17/2021 ovn

2322- balanced so far

Long term- balancing
intermediate- balancing
short- balancing

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ES 1/18/21

928- up on low volume
939-The fact that we haven't corrected the ovn inventories yet, it's a sign of strength, I need it to break at least the upper or below this balance area to make a move
1044- poor lows I am short 2 lots
1242- out of my shorts even, how do I take advantage of this good entry good run but no results
1453- not super high confident of this move all reds on bm

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  #47 (permalink)
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ES1/20/2021 rth

924: 25pt ovn range greater than rth
932- bm all greens
951- doesn't want to balance inventories yet
1501- typical trend day, too much distractions could not add

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ES 1/21/2021
11477- late to the game this morning, boguht D period lows added to E period. This should not reach near the tail of A period
1237- E and F broke
1344- out of the market +200
1423- looking for a pull back
1520- in 5lot, has to create some drama with a pull back L period. looking for limits at 54
1540- exploring downside so far hoping that's a good sign actually
1549- ok it did touch the poor highs I am out enough for today +600

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ES 1/22/21

933- leaving poor highs up there, double D down over night
951- crossed hb in 6 lot
1000- phew B period continues
1007- feels so two sided hard to believei it's a tdday
1010- no continuation so far, but still otf higher out 5 lot
1013- out last 1 lot tempo just doesn't feel so long
1039- C period drives the other way
1156- D and E breaks to the upside
1200- So f is going to continue up the way that it's going, pretty awkward rotation.

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