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AJ's Journal
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AJ's Journal

  #571 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,589 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,527 received


Big Mike View Post
Awesome AJ. Awesome!

Mike

If you keep this site going for much longer, Mike, your group may move the failure rate down to 80%
in no time.

Thanks for all the help


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #572 (permalink)
Elite Member
somewhere, brazil
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: metatrader
Favorite Futures: forex
 
Posts: 60 since Jul 2011
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Getting to live trading as soon as possible is so important. Just keep your risk down like Spot Forex with
Oanda where you can literally deposit $100 bucks and trade nano lots... I consider this almost a public
service. Or, A good step above that, is toss a couple grand in a futures account ( I think AMP is the best for
beginners) and trade the M6E for mid range targets (15-30). (Do Not Scalp either of these products - the
spreads / commissions will eat you alive)


You are exactly right! I have never understood why people would want to risk so much on futures contracts, especially if they aren't consistent. Oanda is pretty good, but sometime their terminal goes down and you have to restart it. I started out demoing with them a couple of years ago. I don't use them anymore, but I still think they are a pretty good broker. MBTrading is also pretty good. I think their terminal went down less.

The Euro / USD respects long range targets very
well and makes it very easy to condition yourself to staying in swing moves.


Be very careful with this. I was reading through your journal and it looks like you're using 5 minute TF? I was doing very well on low timeframes, but then I started getting lazy and wanted to bank these large swings while I went out an did other less work-like things. Trend changed, and I didn't get out, and WHACK! Also, I have also seen MANY times I've seen the EURUSD make steep price changes during the day, and in the middle of the night 3AM my time (probably 1AM for you), price reversed strongly because someone opened their mouth. Had someone taken these trades on the 15-1hr TF, they would have given back everything, or if they didn't have a stop, they would be in a world of hurt. This is why I like horizontal s/r for profit targets, but sometimes price doesn't get exactly to your targets, or worse yet, the broker may widen the spread. Sneaky! Nowadays, I just stick to lower TFs because it works out better for me. The downside is that I have to stay somewhat glued to the monitor. No problem though, it's work. I realize there is no free lunch.

The rest of your career, and this is where the 90% failure rate crashes in, you will be stuggling with one thing.
I really don't think that it's THAT high. Forexmagnates was publishing broker statistics on profitability, and it was somewhere around 70% had losing accounts MTM. I haven't seen them publish any stats recently, but I sure wish they would. There are so many regulations in the US now; one would think the profitability stats would be easy to come by.

Good luck!

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  #573 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: NQ, YM and ES
 
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Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,527 received

Combine Thoughts


___________________________________

A few more thoughts about the TST combine.

What an encredible opportunity this is. I mean, how many traders have failed because they were
trading "scared money".

So, as for what product to trade, it appears that my beloved TF is not available yet. So, for me, that
means either CL or 6E.

I think the movement of CL more closely resemples the TF and for the first few weeks of combat, my
good buddy @PandaWarrior could hold my hand and warn me of market conditions.
The profit potential of CL is staggering. When I "scale up" my 5 min bars to look correctly, on TF,
every segment division on the chart is 5 ticks. On CL it is 10 ticks for the same "look"
So each 5 minute bar move in CL is roughly twice the profit of TF... of course the same with risk.


I am not unfamiliar with the 6E however, so we shall see how it goes.
It's good to have options and know the behavior of 3 different products. ( 2 for now)

I absolutely can not wait.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #574 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: NQ, YM and ES
 
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Trading Rules

_____________________ AJ's Trading Rules __________________________


Continuation - Enter on the consolidation / PB side that is OPPOSITE the direction of the trade.
This keeps your loss at minimum if wrong on trade.
If trend is strong, a PB to the 20ema may be used as a "blind" entry point - use minimum risk.

Reversal - Enter on edge OPPOSITE the perceived direction of reversal. You are looking to enter on a retest.
If a large doji wick is painted and the normal 1 to 2 tick Limit Order is not filled for several bars,
you may lower to 1/2 wick. If an obvious edge of candle bodies is formed below the wick, you may enter at

candle body edge confluence of the group of consolidation bars.
Risk is to be lowered with each of the above scenarios.


******************* Not being filled is better than taking a stop *****************
Let it run without you
DO NOT BECOME ANNOYED AT MISSING OUT


These are your only two entry scenarios.

" Do Not Fish in the middle of The Lake " - Search for the extremes.

Never Trade a Break Out of consolidation " Most Break Outs Are Fake Outs "
Trade from the edges in, until the channel is broken, then enter in direction of break AFTER price tests back
towards the channel. It will often test all the way back to the breakout side of the channel. BE PATIENT

BE PATIENT - Let price come to the entry points YOU decide.
Let price go to the exit points YOU decide.
DO NOT CLOSE POSTITION. A move to BE is your only option.


******************* "Trade What You See" **********************
Have no Market Bias


****************** " Losing is a necessary part of Winning " ****************
Study WHY your trade lost and LEARN


***************** HAVE FUN!!!! ********************
Remember what you are working for!!


How would Will Smith trade and study?
Never Give Up!!

Remember the Spirit and Mental Strength of Bruce Lee.
The water BECOMES the tea pot.
The water BECOMES the cup.
BE the water.
" You just 'gotta flow, baby "



Thousands of people have acquired greatness late in life though out the centuries.
Hold the Line!!
You are next!!


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #575 (permalink)
Elite Member
Tampa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: 6E, M6E, 6J
 
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tderrick View Post
_____________________ AJ's Trading Rules __________________________


Continuation - Enter on the consolidation / PB side that is OPPOSITE the direction of the trade.
This keeps your loss at minimum if wrong on trade.
If trend is strong, a PB to the 20ema may be used as a "blind" entry point - use minimum risk.

Reversal - Enter on edge OPPOSITE the perceived direction of reversal. You are looking to enter on a retest.
If a large doji wick is painted and the normal 1 to 2 tick Limit Order is not filled for several bars,
you may lower to 1/2 wick. If an obvious edge of candle bodies is formed below the wick, you may enter at

candle body edge confluence of the group of consolidation bars.
Risk is to be lowered with each of the above scenarios.


******************* Not being filled is better than taking a stop *****************
Let it run without you
DO NOT BECOME ANNOYED AT MISSING OUT


These are your only two entry scenarios.

" Do Not Fish in the middle of The Lake " - Search for the extremes.

Never Trade a Break Out of consolidation " Most Break Outs Are Fake Outs "
Trade from the edges in, until the channel is broken, then enter in direction of break AFTER price tests back
towards the channel. It will often test all the way back to the breakout side of the channel. BE PATIENT

BE PATIENT - Let price come to the entry points YOU decide.
Let price go to the exit points YOU decide.
DO NOT CLOSE POSTITION. A move to BE is your only option.


******************* "Trade What You See" **********************
Have no Market Bias


****************** " Losing is a necessary part of Winning " ****************
Study WHY your trade lost and LEARN


***************** HAVE FUN!!!! ********************
Remember what you are working for!!


How would Will Smith trade and study?
Never Give Up!!

Remember the Spirit and Mental Strength of Bruce Lee.
The water BECOMES the tea pot.
The water BECOMES the cup.
BE the water.
" You just 'gotta flow, baby "



Thousands of people have acquired greatness late in life though out the centuries.
Hold the Line!!
You are next!!

Well since you posted these ruled, I must now hold you to them during London

London Calling
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  #576 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: NQ, YM and ES
 
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Posts: 1,589 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,527 received

First Day for 6E

Trade 1

Price breaks down from consolidation.
enter 2 cars short on PB to channel bottom.
Targets scaled out to obvious SR levels.
Bulls come in quickly

+6
Good Scalp / Bad trade

My cash entry faired a little better by playing a single car on the initial entry and then scaling in on
the deeper PB. +30

a bit impatient on entry - Wait for more of a swing PB of breakdown instead of just the 5 min bar.
but good risk management of exit as I felt the clouds gathering
Bulls PB hard on weekly mid line pivot and 50% fib hit


Trade 2

I bail too early .... price moves to target after early exit....
I'm not letting my RR develop

+3

Once again , even though I had a worse entry on my cash postion , I let it ride.. +7 .. almost hit target and let it
come back on me... greedy...



Trade 3

A blatant fade scalp on a strong bull move.

+5
cash market not filled

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All in all, not bad.

I'm still not letting my RR work. I will nver make the correct profits bailing early.
My instints are correct. I just need to sit on my hands after I enter.

First day in Live SIM in 6E .... Nice
I made a little money for the cash account also.

A good morning.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #577 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: NQ, YM and ES
 
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Posts: 1,589 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,527 received

Monday Test, Phase 2

Trade 1

I opened up the charts to see a bullish bounce off a double bottom.
My optimal entry had already passed and I saw that it was valid and that continuation was underway.

I played the breakout side with 2 cars. Against my rules..

+30 with some positive slippage... I think sim counted wrong

Impatient , but price looked certain to break to top of channel at least.
second car should have been left at BE to let winner run. However, A nice, safe play to lock in profits.




Trade 2

Single car entry on PB

+8

I was nervous about taking a trade on the MA in a channel, so I bailed early with a 1 : 1 RR
with good reason... price moves against me quickly

I'm OK with this trade. It was pure instinct to get in AND to save my ass and get out.
Impatient... the real entry formed one bar later... but as it turns out, it would have been a scalp also. ( just a better scalp)
Have I mentioned before that I am impatient?

CL moves a little different from TF and all is being tossed in the ole AJ neural net for later retrieval

I love learning this stuff... another curtain pulls back every day.





Trade 3

I was little too conservative on my BO PB entry and was not filled on
a large move that would have allowed me to scale in for large $$.

It's OK... I traded the plan (for the most part) and learned where to better place these entries to join a BO.


This was a trial sim day for me to take some live trades this week or next in TF for my personal account at
the London open. Then I will switch to CL in SIM to practice for the combine.

Work it!!
Work it!!

A great test that I passed with a C

Much room for improvement, but much, much better. Both mentally and with the skill level.

Maybe a few more Live Data SIM days on the TF to get VERY used to REAL TIME trading.
The key is time management. Don't stare at the screen smoking the Hopium pipe.

Get up and do some situps or curls... anything... finish marking your charts up... scan futures.io (formerly BMT)...
Look for great targets .... etc
anything to keep your eyes from staring at your trade.

For me, I just need to look back at the 5th minute of every bar to see how it closes.
That is only 1/5th of my time... I try to make the other 4/5ths as constructive as possible.


I feel like I'm "getting it"


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AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #578 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: NQ, YM and ES
 
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Posts: 1,589 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,527 received

Yes

Soon

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AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #579 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: several
Favorite Futures: several
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received

Good work on the Journal man. A big shout out from Birmingham. Keep it up. Looks like we do some things similar in trading.

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  #580 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: several
Favorite Futures: several
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received


I also recently started trading some CL (from my favorite TF), and my avg win:avg loss ratio has gone through the roof, but my win% has gone down. Just FYI. See you around.

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