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AJ's Journal
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AJ's Journal

  #411 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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Big Mike View Post
Sorry to hear of harder times.

But please do not make the normal mistake of thinking trading for your primary income is going to happen anytime soon. Most in this situation end up burning through all their savings, and really putting themselves in a bad financial situation as they spend day after day trying to make trading work, instead of searching for a "normal" job.

Willpower alone is not going to make you a good trader. It takes a lot of things in your life to be aligned just right, and financial stress does not fit in the picture.

I hope things improve soon.

Mike

I heard your voice in my head every time I thought of trying to trade for a living... Funny thing is,
the Big Mike in my head was saying something eerily close to your quoted statement.

That could easily be THE worst time to return to live trading. When EVERYTHING is on the line.

...no pressure there. I would have a breakdown holding through the first pullback!!


It is, however, on my mind and desperate times may require desperate measures. Believe me, I
know enough at this point that if I do have to try, I will know quickly if I have the mental
strength to hang with it.

The business will be fine, I'm sure. This is first time I have ever been "slow"... It's just freaking
me out a little.

I may have to actually have a budget now...

Thanks for looking out, Mike.
You are a good friend


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #412 (permalink)
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Hi AJ,
just read up through to the most recent post on your journal and I'm now subscribed. Wanted to say thanks and I hope you keep it up, it's a great read. I trade the €/$ cash in sim and I'm pretty much where you are right now too. Good luck and good trading, & enjoy the Easter break...

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #413 (permalink)
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Back at It :)


The studio work has picked back up and I pulled up just before a nervous breakdown

Time to get back to some serious Futures study.

I'm still swing trading the currencies and am finding success.

____________________________________________

I am in the hard study of transition bars on the 5 min chart.
My goal is to find the exact pivot in PA.

I believe it is mandatory to run more than one car. Take an early profit to, at the very least, fund the car you
leave at the original stop position which is above / below the current price action. I call the top or
bottom of these swings the "edge" , as sometimes price will visit it numerous times and form a straight
edge on the candles. My favorites are the exhaustion bars with long wicks and also small bars that
form a mini consolidation area.

Trade one

A short placed on the bullish side of the small PB bar. 1 tick below the peak.


car one filled
+10

car two filled
+48


Trade two

a Large wick formed and then the transitional bar took out my trailing stop on car 2 of
the previous trade.

Order was placed long 1 tick above the bottom of the wick, waiting for a retest.


car one filled
+10

car two pending at
+18 w trailing stop.



... an interesting study.

I'm logging big data on the odds of this type of trade and it appears favorable thus far.


It's good to have my mind focused again


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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Last edited by tderrick; April 11th, 2012 at 08:40 AM. Reason: idiot
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  #414 (permalink)
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tderrick View Post
The studio work has picked back up and I pulled up just before a nervous breakdown

Awesome news, glad to hear it!

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
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4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #415 (permalink)
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Wick Studies

My study of the edge trade continues.

This can also be seen as fading the extremes or selling into strength or
buying into weakness.

The key for me, however, is the "look" of the 5min wick.


Trades 1-3

Wait for formation of wick on extreme of price
Place counter order 2 ticks below edge.
Stop is 3 ticks above wick.

I know I'm flirting with the death by a thousand cuts phenom., but my research has shown
that if price peaks the wick by more than 2 ticks, price is not done moving
in that direction.

So 5 tick stops it is, for now.
Target in an unsure trend are 15 with a small window for a break out.

+45



Trade 4

-5 on break of channel



Trade 5


The sideways channel breaks and I switch to fade mode of
the large break out bars.
I give myself one of these per break- 10 tick target hard, then I search for a way to enter the trend
on a pull back bar that leaves an edge of several small bars or wick close to the MA. At this point I
leave the target open ended and ride the trend until Price takes me out. (No ATM)
This is still tricky for me. I much prefer to catch the break out of channel. The window in my ATM is narrow
,however, so this is difficult. With 1 car, I have to take the 3:1 and leave a chance of price breaking.


Price struggled at the US open, so I called it.

Up $481 after commissions.


I'm trying to treat this as a job also.

How much will be earnings and how much to keep in the trading account to build and have a buffer
for the losing days.

Like maybe a 3:1 scenario. Like daily profit target of $600 and a stop loss of $200


I will try to post at least a few entries a day, now that I have my strategy fairly well honed out.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Attached Thumbnails
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Last edited by tderrick; April 20th, 2012 at 01:46 AM. Reason: idiot
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  #416 (permalink)
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Most Break Outs are Fake Outs

My studies continue with the title line as my thesis.


Today was the trade of my career.


Trade 1

Sold immediately into break out strength, as soon as price slowed.

Price finally broke through the key hole I left in my ATM for just this occurrence.
I stayed at my normal 15 ticks as price moved far away.

I moved my target to the next major SR line on my hourly chart, never believing it would be hit, just
making room to work a nice long grind down and expecting to be taken out by PA on a strong PB

I was trailing my stop 2 ticks above the last major 5 min PB bar.

No need ... the target was hit.

I was in the trade for 80 minutes... perfect.

I'm calling it

$300 for bills
$420 to toss back to the beast.

If this test will support me for several consecutive months, I may contemplate using this
as a secondary business in conjunction with the studio.

I am waiting for the inevitable draw down period to fully test the system.


...at least a chart a day
...at least a chart a day


Feelin' strong


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #417 (permalink)
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More, More!!

I'm going to make little notes to myself today for later review.



Trade 1_____________________________________________________________

My classic edge trade. A series of small bars that form a straight "edge". I will always
bet on reversal. Buy Stop Limit order placed due to the low volume in Pre-London market.

The London open gave me the juice I needed

+18 with a little push through my ATM opening.


Trade 2_______________________________________________________


The dreaded PB entry.

These are difficult for me. I attempt to gauge the PB in relation to the 20 ema.
When I get a good wick down and close to the ema. I place a buy limit right at
the end of the wick. I need all the room I can get on my stop loss for overshoots.

ATM off on all PB entries. Trend direction is now clear
Full manual mode to try and catch a nice long trend.
I will trail the stop after each major 5min bar PB.

BE +2 at +16

run !! run!!

target moved to previous week high on hourly chart
stop moved slightly at +27
hesitation at 1.618 extension
stop moved tight at small bar

stopped out

+24

huge PB bar at extension
You think anyone uses fibs to trade ?? ha lol

big bounce off 20ema
didn't hit old stop location
Price tests extreme
comes up short, perhaps reversal

The fade edge trade would have worked on this reversal, had I not already been long.

will not try another re-entry long

oh, good!! price takes out my old stop location

Good exit decision (bounce off 1.618 extension)

100% PB

good decision not to reenter long

price stays "inside" stay flat

price hits .618 PB

3 bars at 618 stall ... fascinating

4:51 break down , full reversal

unsure... stay flat

100% retracement to trade 1 entry




Trade 3_________________________________________

Buy limit order 819.4

5:03 Not filled

Filled long at 819.2 - new order

uneasy ... potential triple bottom

stop tightened... 1 tick below PA

5:46

stop loosened by 1 ha Lol c'mon cut it out... like my stops aren't as tight as possible anyway

bears have pressure, I may be screwed on this one

5:57

Holy crap !! bulls to the rescue!!

+12 move to BE+2

Still in manual mode... should be in combat ATM

Stop hit

+2

Price breaks down... good risk management, although a poor trade initially.


Trade 4_______________________________________________________________

Price is grinding down ....difficult

6:24

looking for an entry short

Price breaks down....

I got on the wrong side of this PA with a bullish bias

I'm calling it a session

$300 for bills
$129.14 to feed the account


a good day.

I'll load up another day in the morning ..

I have a bit of a sinus infection and I'm wearing out quickly.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #418 (permalink)
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Saturday Morning Replay

A nice rainy morning here in Tennessee. How about a little hot tea and some Market Replay

I was lying awake last night pondering every beginners trading question.

Whether to scalp a few ticks or trade for the bigger moves of the day.

I feel my plan is correct for the cursed one car scenario. My target is generally 15 ticks. A little
more than the classic scalp while leaving a small window for a break out scenario. ( a 16th tick in the atm)

I am always longing to capture the larger move, so I know that is where my heart lies. But, until I can
run two cars, I will treat my trade like the first of two cars and take money off the table quickly.

However, this morning, I'm going to change things up a bit. I'm going to stay full manual
and move my stop with price action to try and capture more of the bigger picture move.


Trade 1____________________________________________


Price had a huge bullish run to end Friday the 23rd of March.
Consolidation formed in Sunday pre market, as usual.
I missed my usual entry out of consolidation as I started the replay close to the London open
I didn't take the fade trade on the initial move up at

130am

200am

Market is unsure so I wait, bulls are testing.

Bulls are stalling

Sell limit at 832.1, one tick below top

220am filled

Big move down... moving to BE +2....Moving target bottom of channel, confluence of yesterdays high
and close and PW close - 2 ticks above low of channel.

231am +22 SL +12


Note.... I like giving price more of a chance like this - Locked in ATM's make it difficult to catch moves.
I may have more BE trades with this, but it's worth it, if I can catch one larger move a day.

241am stall just before target ... arrgghhh SL move to +15

250am Target hit !!

+28



Trade 2 _______________________________________________________


Price goes to the support line to the tick... huge bounce off the confluence ...
the bulls aren't going anywhere.

301am I wait

305 test of high
318 rejection of high.... oh, this is a mess.............. I wait
338 still stuck in channel
414 barb wire at ma on 5 min.... the market is waiting for something....
this is / was Bernake and Pending home sales news day.... hmmmmm

440 the market has a long way to run in either direction ... I need to decide on the correct one
and hold on......bulls will not let go
516 I can't believe it, But I'm taking a BO trade long at 832.5
stop is below barbwire at 829.5.... betting the whole days winnings

520 Target moved between 1.618 and R1 / SL to 830.5 / below vwap
535 target hit.... price hit R1 to the tick ...crazy

+ 20


Trade 3______________________________________

OK lets see if I pay the price for taking a small target
But, at least it was a TARGET!!! ...based on Price Action!!! not just some random number...

good work

541 Price bounces off R1
557 a normal PB
603 test of high
607 not looking to reenter long... I will pay the price and watch if price moves on
613 new high and boom, off she goes hunting for the weekly high, I Bet
622 PB at 1.75 extension ... stronger this time to 1.618
703 Price bangs higher

I can't stand it ... I'm out before I do something rash

$300 for bills
$172.76 to feed the beast


I must learn to aim at the major targets...

Oh, well... I earned a simulated living today.

Put up the tools and head home... more trades tomorrow.

getting better at seeing the "Big Picture" but still trading "small time"


I will never get my Ferrari like this

I'll load up another day this evening with some hockey.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #419 (permalink)
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Replay study

3-27-12


Trade 1

looking for a bounce off the high, in my typical fading fashion
it has a chance of breaking down after such a large bull move

156am BE+2 to hold through London Open
210 open was calm
213 +16 BE +5 SL !:!
222 Good break down / trailing stop tightly as still countertrend

Stopped out
+18


Trade 2

Instantly place Buy Limit order at bottom of large PB wick

234 trying to get on with trend
price leaves me quickly... going to have to enter with a PB to get in With Trend
big rejection of the move down.

251 enter long at 845.5 on a standard PB entry as price resumes
two things I don't like about this trade - it is in the middle of the channel PA
and it's buying into resistance . Bulls look strong, however, so I think I
can make enough room to BE and see if we are good for one more push up. Tight stop

304 test of the high +10 BE +1
306 new high....
308 Price Breaks!! Move target to R2 on hourly but will tighten at .618 extension and R3 of 5 min
314 +28 holding stop at top of channel +10 locked in with SL

320 +36 .... I have to lock in some more profits ... approaching .618 extension on 30min chart +25 locked
401 tight consolidation stop moved just below PA +28
406 higher high
410 another nice push +49 locking in 5 more +33.... .618 extension are hourly is viable now.. good confluence target of
of several charts

stopped out ...

+35


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"

Last edited by tderrick; April 24th, 2012 at 12:21 AM. Reason: additions
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  #420 (permalink)
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cont....

pretty good trade management .... lets see if we moved that last stop a bit early

437 prior stop placement was taken out so all in all a good trade



Trade 3


I'm a bit too tired too work on tonight.... long day in the studio.

i feel good about the management of both trades

$300 bills
$222.76 to the account


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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