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Prior day saw the classic TF sell off followed by the 50% retracement starting around 10am this time. Overnight saw steady buying with consolidation / retracement starting around 330amcdt
Trade 1
PB entry long that stalled at a major resistance line
+9
Trade 2
Attempt at an early reversal entry.
I bailed as news reports approached.
-2
Trade 3
BE+1 on shorting the open
Trade 4
Great entry on a failed break low.
I was able to move the target up to the logical location of the previous
high since price was moving steadily.
Up $266
I have a few trades left in the Plan, but I just feel like I should get out now.
just a bit short of the daily target.
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: S&P, Crude, Gold
Posts: 853 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,424
Thanks Received: 1,537
AJ you really hit on something many traders lose out on; if you feel like you should get out (traders intuition - my gut usually tells me does yours?) .....then you should! It's real easy to turn Up $266 into Down $266. Even can be painful after the fact when you tell yourself over and over "I shoulda quit trading when I was up and my gut told me to."
Prior Day Saw a huge bullish run. I guess I should have used all my trades to hit my profit target.
The standard TF 50% retrace started at about 1030 cdt this time.
The Globex saw pure sideways action, with the bulls taking over at about 2am.
Trade 1
Failed break out short
I stayed in for an hour and a half for some reason
-9
Trade 2
Failed break out long BE+1
Trade 3
PB entry long after a failed break short
target hit +15
Trade 4
Entry on a break Out short after price proved to me that it was
really going short.
I got a little antsy when it stalled around an SR level
so I bailed at +10
Trade 5
I pushed the rules a bit to get in early on a reversal and paid the price
-7
Somehow I managed to end up $72
I need to show a bit more patience on choppy, slow days like these -
great experience... exactly why I am loving studying these Market Replays. It's great logging
up all this screen time. I will be quite familiar with the TF with another week or so of data.
I'm in no hurry this time around.
Prior day Saw a slow grind up that didn't turn until about midnight
then slowly ground down.
The first setup a saw was just before the 730am news release, so I held off.
Of course it hammered in my direction.
Trade 1
The bulls grabbed the reigns first, so I entered at my usual break of resistance.
My target was hit after a great deal of heat. I was hesitant to move my target up
to the logical location SR because of the PA. (Price did go past this location)
+15
Trade 2
I was looking for a reversal to at least test the previous low. Price stalled
so I bailed
BE+1
Trade 3
Same as above except for some slippage.
BE-1
Trade 4
Reversal entry long. I bailed at first PB.
+10
This PA wore me out.
I had a trade left in the plan, but I wanted out.
Up $216
Just some thoughts as I was looking at your charts. TF looks like it is fairly well structured....so why not take advantage of that like I showed in my chart mark up.
Just some random thoughts....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
So, you think I'm getting in too early? I usually just place a stop order above / below an area of
consolidation to catch the break. TF breaks through with gusto often and I hate to enter on a fast
moving run.
I will use your idea when I find myself unsure. ( which is often ! )
If you are using your MA as trading signals, then yes, if not, then no....from the chart you posted, it appeared from my perspective that PERHAPS, you are getting in to early....But I trade CL so for me, break out trades are often a recipe for heat.....and large stops...I prefer to see the area break first, establish some support for the new level and then enter....sometimes CL just runs away, that is the price I pay for being more conservative....I have finally come to terms with the fact I won't catch all those massive runners....instead, I want to see a piece of it at the beginning but after it has confirmed it really is a break out.
Just my two cents....on the other hand, I know a really good trader that will start entering a few ticks in front of the support/resistance level and as the trade goes against him, he just holds and then as it begins to confirm....(where I would get in) he starts adding heavily to the position.....smart if you can stomach the initial pain. He has a hard money stop in place well away from the action and just waits it out....it works for him but makes me sick.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
)