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Trading PATs - ES + Currency Futures


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Trading PATs - ES + Currency Futures

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  #11 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received

Monday, December 7th, 2020 update:

Took five trades today for a point positive, capital negative day.

Trades will now be explained in the screenshots. Some specific thoughts:

#1. The three legs up before and the steep uptrend should have made me not take this trade. It also had some really bearish bars leading up to it. I WAS anticipating a correction or at least a flattening of the trend but I still took it. The red bullish signal was another sign to not take it. There was nothing bullish about it.

#2. This 2el was below the EMA but had a nice bounce off the channel trend line and had a nice bullish signal. I managed the runner well by locking in the 1.25 pts, not expecting it to take off before failing to the downside.

#3. RTY, ugh. I should stay away from this market for now - some days the momentum seems clear then other days its choppy. Guess that's everything though. Looked like a large range day, so I tried shorting the 2es. Too much congestion and a weird signal bar - I should have skipped it altogether, or gotten out as I got 2 chances to with 4 ticks. I need to be more conscious of congestion.

#4. F2el off of the ema - I got tipped by a friend and usually do not know how to take f2el's yet, but it served as a pseudo 2es as well and looked like it would go short. In hindsight, I was a big lucky to get this trade as the signal wouldn't have fulfilled my criteria.

#5. Proud of this trade - great bearish signal and a 1es, but almost had 2 legs up, and with it being right by the ema I had to take it. Runner management again got me out at BE + 1, but if I used the last bar close method I might have been able to squeeze more. More experience needed.

Stats:
5 trades, 3-2
P/L - 4.5/6.6 pts (Sigh. Two losses of 2pts and 1.3pts x 2 contracts just eats up any gains for the day, not even considering comms)
Getting the percentage up from ~50 to 67 is the goal. Then better runner management.

Keeping the head up - see you on Tuesday!

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  #12 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received

Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 update:

Embarrassing day. Hahaha

Screenshots below. Some specific thoughts:

6E: For some reason I took this 2es after a break out of a range with a huge signal. No excuse.

RTY: I guess... I just shorted? Dunno why I took #1. #2: Little 2el for a small scalp. #3: Strong move up to ATH, with a nice signal - expected a correction but stopped out. Trend is your friend. #3 entry - trying to sneak into a 2el that formed already. In the context of the finished bar that was dumb. No excuse either.

ES: #1. Same as RTY #3 - strong move up with a signal, expecting a pullback. Countertrend, above EMA, after a strong move up, overall uptrend. Dumb trade. #2 Tried shorting ATH with a limit order. #4 - small scalp, 2el that scared me with congestion and after so many losses, I was antsy.

ES Bonus! My one redeeming trade at the end - Nice 2es and breakout pullback on a micro range.

Overtrading. Not listening to my rules. Being distracted and wanting to just trade for fun. At least the next day was better.

Stats:
9 trades, 2-7
P/L - a lot of loss

I reflected, lets move on - see you for Wednesday!
6E WHY


ES 2es


ES WHY


RTY WHY

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  #13 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received


Wednesday, December 9th, 2020 update:

A better, positive day after 2 grueling loss days.

Screenshots below. Some specific thoughts:

Today I tried something new. I drew boxes to the right of prices where the key areas would be, should prices go there. I'd take trades if they did, and outside of the boxes, just watch and see what happens. It helps to define where you are waiting for prices to go, and then decide to look for entries. No more looking for trades in the middle of nowhere. For example, I placed them at the channel lines and at any key r+s areas that if broken, I'd expect a pullback. You'll see these on my charts.

ES: Prices were in a downtrend range. 1: After a channel break (had a tighter one than the screenshot) and two bearish signals and a 2es, I shorted for 1pt scalp and BE+1. Repeat pattern 10 min later. Missed the huge move down as I was away. 5: An hour later, there was a double test break of the low and a large bullish signal, so I rode the next bar for a 1pt scalp and 1.25pt runner. The micro trendline helped figure out my exit target. I think the key entry idea that lowered risk on it failing and continuing to drop was waiting for prices to pull back above the last resistance.

RTY: 2: Range-ish uptrend. Prices reached the bottom of the channel and had a bullish* signal and a 2el, so I got my 1pt scalp and BE+1. Prices shifted to a downtrend range. 3. I shorted a nice bearish signal bar at the top of the channel for just 4 ticks and BE - didn't switch my ATM strategy from ES. Could have gotten maybe 8 ticks? Definitely not a full point though. 4. My fail of the day. After a micro range, prices broke with trend, down. The pullback was there, but I didn't wait for a bullish blue signal, nor for the prices to get back INTO the range. Quickly got stopped out, and with a large bar, I lost 1.8 pts.

Good day of waiting for good setups. The one loss ate into my profits quick, and the ES #5 was the thing that saved me, thanks to the runner. I would say that was a risky trade too though, so I need to be more patient and careful, using my boxes and only taking good signal bars.

Stats:
5 trades, 4-1
P/L - 4.75/3.8 - comms = +$50

See you on Thursday!

ES 1+5


RTY 2,3,4

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  #14 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received

Thursday, December 10th, 2020 update:

I overtraded Thursday. Gonna go over the trades on what I consider a training day. I went over a bunch of videos and wanted to train the setup identification, entry, exit stuff.

1. Loss. After prices pulled back with a lot of congestion I took a 2es that failed. The pullback was long due and after many bounces from EMA. Also shorted right into 9:30 market open; wasn't careful enough. I got back a quick point or two off of the noise right after. Avoid market open.

2. After a huge buy run, a nice signal bar and 2es presented itself and I scalped for 1pt and BE+1.

3. Pullback to the ema, 2el with a large bull signal but plenty of room to get back to the previous high. 1pt + BE+1.

4. After strong buying a 1st entry long with a good signal got me 1pt and 1.5pt runner.

5. Loss. Prices went into a range after a double top and after prices broke the low and had a relatively bullish (but still red) bar, I went long. The bottom range line was not as convincing, and I didn't wait until prices came back into the range to go long. I failed to remember the range line can act as resistance if prices breakout and pullback - best to either have enough space to test it, or have already gotten back inside the range. 2pts loss x2.

6. Downtrend/selloff - first pullback with a good signal (1es), got 1pt and 1.25pt runner.

7. My 1es became a 2es, and I caught that as well for 1pt + BE+1.

8. Loss. After another range area I once again got burned on a pullback. This time going short after a breakout on the topside. Didn't enter with a signal, and the "breakout" wasn't even strong. After an actual bearish signal I got a small 1pt scalp. I need to stop entering breakouts that aren't convincing or have any good signals and without clear resistance.

9. I noticed prices formed a strong channel and bought the channel bounce 1el. 1pt and .5pt runner.

10. After a selloff, the first 2es correction was shorted for 1pt and 1.25pt runner.

Stats:
10 trades, 7-3
P/L - Breakeven and loss w comms.

I reflected on the trades and obviously need to bring it back for fewer, more thought out trades. Too many close call scalps today, and I need to study ranges more! My conclusion is that any good trade I make is consistently backed by a really nice signal bar (on top of any actual trade context). Will focus on clear breakout pullbacks on defined ranges, and pullbacks to EMA on defined trends, staying away from congestion and noise.

See you on Friday!
ES Trade Performance


ES

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  #15 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received

Friday, December 11th, 2020 update:

A wonderful trading day. 3-0 on Live and 4-0 on SIM. I stayed calm and waited for good entries. I think all of the trades were thought out and had good reasons to be in and minimal reasons to not have taken them. No close calls today either. I think the chart was cleaner and easier to trade today too, so I may have been a little lucky. Still, it's a good feeling to be clearly in the green today.

I've focused entirely on ES now. RTY is quite correlated with ES, and the tick size difference and 10 tick/point causes me to fumble too many trades as I have to switch the ATM strat on NT. Watching 6E, RTY, and ES causes me to miss out on more entries than the amount of times it's provided me more setups. So I decided to go and focus on ES and master that first. There are more than enough setups to find, and waiting on one chart helps to get into them well.

Live trades:

1. Prices were in a clear, clean downtrend. Only one pullback by 11:45 when I came in. Saw a sharp pullback and took the 1es with a clean signal bar for 1pt and BE.

2. Prices pulled back again for a 2es, and another clean signal bar and validation with the next bar, so I limit ordered in at the right stop entry location for 1pt and a 1.5pt runner!

3. A final 2es came around near the lows of the overnight and the low of the day. .75pt scalp (got worries about whether it would test the bounce location. It did to the tick) and 1.25pt runner. Got good slippage or something on that.

Sim trades:

1. This was before live trade #3. After that first bounce, I stop ordered long after a higher low. Not sure if that is really a higher low as some people told me it wasn't - will have to study how to define and locate HL and LH's. Not sure if this was a too risky, low probability trade that just worked out, so I shouldn't have taken this countertrend trade, but I took it on SIM for a reason. Got 1pt and BE+1.

2. 2es after a strong uptrend with clear corrections. Big signal bar but it was very bearish. After 3 bars of bearish congestion I got out at .25pts and .5pts.

x. Trade at 14:38 was a test meant for my indicator account. Disregard.

3. Prices broke the highs of the day and the double top at 14:30s, with a neutral bar and bearish selling on the next, so I limit ordered in after prices broke the signal. Took it because I knew I had room to the resistance, learned from yesterday's range mistakes. Got 1pt and 1.25pt runner.

4. Prices broke back into the range, so I knew the resistance would turn to support and we might test the other side, which I think prices did. Went short on the 2es/lower high bearish signal for 1pt and BE+1.

Stats:
7 trades, 7-0
3-0 Live, 4-0 SIM
P/L - 15.5/0 for around $370 live and ~$4-500 SIM.

Good day. Thoughts for today: I will have to review my winning trades and see how often my 1pt target hits 5,6,7, or even 8 ticks. I might revise the ATM to take profit at 6 ticks for the first scalp. With the average bar size and volatility this might be possible. Realizing the importance of a GOOD signal bar, with <10-12 tick size; its crucial to the winning trades. Gonna try to keep this consistency and continue following my rules in the next week!

See you on Monday!

ES Live Trades 3-0


ES SIM Trades 4-0

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  #16 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received

Monday, December 14th, 2020 update:

Another big W today. 4-0 on live and 5-1 on SIM. ES opened with a steady uptrend after gapping up from Friday. We were all looking for prices to gap down, but there was also a really well defined uptrend channel which held out until around 10:30. Caught most of my live trades on that uptrend. Tons of easy trades today after I closed out - strong downtrend with defined, clean pullbacks. Feels weird to get a day with so many entries!

Trade overview:

1. Strong uptrend, with a 2el (perceived, as last swing was lower than 2nd entry, but price action still held up) entered off of a red bullish signal, so a slight rule break, but I saw the strong momentum of the next entry bar. Got 1pt scalp and a 1.25 pt runner target after prices stalled at +2pts.

2. 2el off of the ema with a strong signal bar. Another red bull bar so I may have been lucky. But I think the shape matters more than the color at times. Prices broke out on the downside of the EMA and I got the 1pt scalp and 1.5pt runner - getting better at seeing if momentum has more to it, or if this is all I'm gonna get, in which case I throw my stop back up to a good exit of 1.5pts.

3. Another strong 2el off of the EMA, but by now prices were stalling a bit so I was weary, and the price movement intrabar after my entry was very slow. Didn't shoot to target, so I scratched out at .25pts x3 contracts. Would have hit my target, but I'm glad I got out as the movement was very hesitant. Not like the previous pullbacks. I knew there was a gap to be filled soon, and it did right after.

4. SIM. 2el formed, way below the EMA after a break of trend. No reason to go long here but I did it on SIM knowing this. Took a loss. 2pts

5. SIM. Missed a great 1es pullback, but no signal bar so it's alright. The next pullback had a great bearish signal, perfect. Entered quick and got 1pt and 2pt runner. I was one tick/one second off of getting into this on my live account. Just not quick enough with the limit order and got too greedy with the entry. Still, a sim trade for 4pts total on 3 contracts!

6. LIVE again! A third 2es pullback had me hesitating but with a clear 1es signal and then an even more bearish 2es signal bar I shorted into the ema (at least there were .5pts back to it) with only one contract to reduce risk. Quick and easy 1pt. Could have had a 3pt+ runner on this.

7. SIM. Seeing all the momentum down and going into the gap area I shorted for a point off of the movement. No real play - would never do this on live and so shouldn't do that on SIM. Should have gotten the F2EL right before that.

8. SIM. Another 1es pullback, was weary about this as there were plenty of good 1es's and I anticipated a flattening or a different reaction - still, entered with a good signal bar and scalped for 1pt and 1pt runner.

9. SIM. Prices ranged upwards and presented another 2es, after mighty congestion and with a wicky bearish signal I still entered (it's SIM!) but after wicky movement on the next bar I scratched out at .25pts

Stats:
9 trades, 8-1
4-0 Live, 5-1 SIM
P/L - 17.5/5.5 for around $380 live and $220 SIM - $600 total.

Another great day. All of the winning trades would have netted 6, and even 8 ticks maybe. Many don't get to 2pts though, but looking back, a significant amount get to 6 before reversing, or hit even more for the runner. I might have to set up a ghost sim order to a/b the 4 tick scalp PT vs 6 tick PT with BE+1 kicking in at 7 ticks. The losers stay the same, while we squeeze a bit more from the winners!

See you on Tuesday!

ES Live


ES SIM


Trade Stats Live


Trade Stats SIM

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  #17 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received

Monday, December 7th, 2020 update:

Loss day - A choppy chart threw me off today and I ended early.

1. Bought the breakout pullback, but didn't wait for a signal again. Old mistake. -2pts

2. Channel bounce entered on a limit and got my point, then added to my position after it became a 2es. Stopped out when the 2es failed.

3. Two great pullbacks down with good signal bars but my NT was spitting out error messages.

Was done early today - tomorrow I'll be back with a refined methodology and some new perspective. Been exchanging ideas with friends.

Stats:
3 trades, 1-2
P/L - 2/12 pts

See ya on Tuesday.

ES 3-1

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  #18 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received

Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 update:

The new comprehensive system works... as far as my one day of testing goes. In simple terms, buying pullbacks and fading ranges - no different than before but I've really gotten the entry and exit criteria to one that shows up far more throughout the day and for a higher success rate. Today was good! 4-0 on Live and 3-0 on sim. Might not share the trading charts but we'll see if the journal continues. Perhaps just updates on stats each day and talking about random stuff. We'll see.

Stats:
7 trades, 4-0 live 3-0 sim
P/L - 10.5/0 pts

See ya on Wednesday.

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  #19 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received

Wednesday, December 8th, 2020 update:

5-0 live, 2 scratch trades with <.5 profit. Stuck to my rules, took each setup until I hit my $350 P/L and switched to SIM. Still learning the system and took some antsy trades on SIM that lost, but those didn't follow the rules. I've been manually backtesting for fun. Helps get the setup in my head to be able to find it on the spot and wait for it to fill. All in all, the trading day was short, from 9-10, and I got out with 4-0, then came back for another quick scalp.

Getting the first loss on this strat will be tough - more backtesting will build faith in the percentages and help filter out the bad entries by reading the prior setups.

The current ATM is set at 2 contracts, 4t scalp, and 6t runner as a lot of the trades yesterday were going to BE+1, throwing off the P/L/R:R eventually when it doesn't weigh on the losses as much as a simple scalp. Still figuring out the optimal scalp and runner for this strat. Could be 2s:1r 6 tick, or maybe just a scalp, or something. We'll see.

Stats:
5 trades, 5-0
P/L - 7.5/0

See ya on Thursday.

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  #20 (permalink)
pullback
New York, NY
 
 
Posts: 40 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 14 received


Wednesday, December 23th, 2020 update:

Wonder where all the time went. I've been busy - two huge W days and a bigger loss day humbled me on my limit in blind entry conditions. I guess even with the new simplified system I need signal bars. Backtesting is hard for the system as you need to consider intrabar movement. Will continue to experiment with blind limit entries on SIM.

Took three trades today, 2-0 on ES and 1-0 on MES for $10 loss. Overall $80 up today as I've moved down to 1 contract for the holidays and to get my head back - trading with a lower, inconsequential number is better for trade performance.

1. Prices were on a strong uptrend and due for a correction/rebalance of trend so I shorted on the gann line and at the double top. 1pt scalp

2. Prices corrected and established a new, less steep uptrend - bought the bounce off of the trendline where a gann also intersected.

3. MES short - went long after lots of congestion and FOMOed into a trade with an OK signal but near the top of a micro range. $10 loss

Gann resistance lines are OK for limiting in as far as I can see... I think the WR justifies the occasional loss as long as large momentum is avoided. We're taking pullbacks to the EMA with good signals (1e/2e's basically) and fading resistance lines. Scalps only at this point, and I'll start to scale up as the WR is established and confidence builds...


Stats:
3 trades, 2-1
P/L - 2/2 (MES points)
+$80

I have been dabbling with automated trading on NT. Found some interesting strategies and have been working on implementing and backtesting them, then optimizing for parameters and markets. A futures funded account may pair well with automated strategies to fulfill the capital requirements. Just a thought at this point.

Merry Christmas. See you tomorrow!

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