Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
I decided to give journaling another go. Not sure what will or can come out of it. I guess any human interaction, even if it's just information sharing, is better than none
Some of my beliefs about the markets (the ones I trade at least):
- opportunities are rare and patience is the hardest task;
- anticipation of larger intra-day moves presents a more consistent edge over time than the short-term patterns;
- performance should be judged in terms of a return on capital employed over a long enough period of time (a year), with expectations set at reasonable levels.
Yesterday was one of those "rare" opportunities in NQ:
These are Daily and 5min charts. My reasoning is pretty simple because these trades are clear when they set up. As I mentioned, it is the waiting that is hard. I look at the weekly as well, but basically there is buying in the market and I was looking for signs of initiative from the buyers on some type of a breakout. We got it with a confirmation in the Volume at around 10:40am. These type of moves can go late into the day, so their management is a bit obscure, but the ones that work go far enough to be able to implement some form of profit taking.
Yesterday saw another rare event. Two losing trades in one product in a day
The idea was to capitalize on the continuation of the Open sell-off, but it didn't work out. I monitor the volume on bars against the trend move on the pullback and everything looked alright. You don't see these setups often, maybe 10-15 a year (at least with a reasonable stops), so observations and learning lessons take a while to accumulate. Going forward, the second trade was the one to avoid, as the market is too volatile at these price levels to expect trend continuation after such a deep correction.
The second trade was also emotionally draining to watch, since plenty of the bars after my entry looked like they were reversing in my direction midway through, but then closed against again and again. Felt like I needed to get some air at the end of the day...and a beer
Will probably keep track of the results for this journal in terms of risk per trade (1R). As it stands, I am at -1R.
An Open drive trade in CL that didn't work out. Looking for the VWAP to provide some type of resistance in the first 5min of trade and then playing the breakout from that 5min range:
Next day we had a gap open on indexes. YM fitted best into my criteria for a trade so entered on a breakout from the first 30min range. Moved in my direction fast but then reversed without opportunity to adjust the target, so just a scratch:
Didn't start off well this run of results. Normally I only get one trade a week out of all the instruments I follow, so maybe more frequent setups are a sign of a need for more selectivity right now. Anyway, NQ sold off yesterday and weekly broke the previous week's low. Was playing a breakout with volume confirmation on the 5min. Probably was too much to expect successive directional days.
Same setup on CL as last Thursday (10.15). Open drive and VWAP providing support this time. Slow trade, but probably gives more meaning to those shallow pullbacks to the VWAP in the first 5 minutes.
A Gap trade in YM today, probably per Auction Theory. Any gap represents an imbalance, hence a reason for large participants to adjust positions. I waited for a breakout from the first 30 minutes of trade. Missed the same setup on Monday because wasn't at the screen on time. A much cleaner move then. Still, after a large pullback, I decided that 2 to 1 was less likely and moved the target.
Two trades in CL today. The first one was the Open drive with VWAP as resistance. Very clean move straight away...but against me Probably a reaction bounce from yesterday's VWAP and my stop was slightly too tight. The prices gradually moved lower and all the conditions were met for me to start looking for a VWAP pullback trade. It started off well but the market was slow and the low seemed to be holding so adjusted the target accordingly. All in all, just a couple of ticks net.
A VWAP pullback setup on CL. We had some form of a breakout early in the day with some follow-through. These are the type of conditions I look for on this trade. It was slow to take off and hesitated at the previous high. With elections tomorrow and indexes already trading choppy, I decided not to take any chances and exited conservatively at an average price of 2 to 1.
Had a scratch Gap trade in YM as well, but as I mentioned, it became clear fairly early that a large move to the upside wasn't likely.
So it's been almost two weeks without trades for me. Just a couple of my thoughts on the place of trading in one's life.
Waiting (and trading generally) has become a much easier task for me after I stopped trying too hard. There are many spiritual elements I find in the markets (I am sure I'm not the only one), and surrender of some sorts was one of them. It was clear to me from the very beginning that I am not in control of the individual trading outcomes, but it took me literally years to expand the same logic to my overall performance.
All I do every day is wait and then place what I consider to be good trades. There is no consideration for time here. If my research or a new idea leads to adding a setup, hence increasing frequency to some degree, it just becomes a part of my "toolbox" and it's back to waiting again. This is why I don't believe/chose against trying to reach the point of trading for a living. For me and my level of stubbornness, time was needed to even consider re-evaluating my original goal, which as if often the case was being a "pro" at this. I have a job and it keeps both my mind and my spirit engaged when I don't see anything in the markets. But now I feel much more stable in all areas of my life and actually Believe I can be in this business for years to come.
You never know what exactly you will find on a path less traveled. And you don't know when that will happen either.
