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One trade today which was a winner. Took a VWAP bounce to the downside. Did not enter right away on this one. Waited for price to hesitate a bit before entering. Was I lucky or am I on to something? Time will tell. I've noticed that I get hesitant to take another trade after I win one. I keep thinking back to my stats class in school. Each trade is an independent event and to find the probability of winning two independent trades you just multiply their probabilities. So say I think I have a 65% chance of winning. Well if I win one I get in my head and think the probability of winning two is 42% so I better just watch and not trade. Not the best mindset to have but hey I'm on a hot streak! Need to just keep logging away and putting in the reps and confidence will hopefully follow.
Four trades today. Won 3 lost 1. I rolled to new contract today as well just for reference.
Trade Recap:
Trade 1: -4 ticks. Looking for ETH VWAP bounce. Stopped out. Needed a SL of 6 rather than 4. Oh well. Can live with it. Probably should have waited a bit before entering since price was kind of moving with a little speed.
Trade 2: +3 ticks. Got one of my pink high churn volume bars with ON-M and VWAP behind it so reentered short for the W.
Trade 3: +3 ticks. Went for another bounce off Overnight Mid. Waited for price to stall a bit before entering on this one.
Trade 4: +3 ticks. Bounce off OR-L. We had two good reactions at this level prior so went for it.
Also this is my first week (I think) where I didn't have a losing day. I know it's sim and probably a lot of luck but I'll take it!
Didn't really base any trades off renko chart today so just including the 200 tick. Won 5/8 trades.
Definitely was a little trigger happy on the mouse this morning. Still ended up $6 so the winning streak technically isn't broken (yet). I need to win about 62% of my trades to be a little over breakeven which is right about what I won today. Let's see if I can remember why I took all these trades.
Two out of three of my losses related to Overnight High which wasn't really working at all for me. Don't know why I kept trying to go back to the well when there was never any water to begin with!
Trade 3: +3 ticks - Not 100% sure looking now. Maybe OR-M but OR wasn't fully established yet. I believe I was waiting for some price hesitation to reenter on ETH VWAP SD
Trade 4: -4 ticks - ETH VWAP SD Band - Jumped the gun on this. Had I waited a few ticks might have been a winner.
Trade 5: +3 ticks - OR High and Prior Open Bounce
Trade 6: -4 - Overnight High Bounce attempt again.
Trade 7: +3 ticks - OR High and Prior Open - Saw price hesitate enough that I wanted back in
Well the winning streak is over. Time to recap and see if I've learned anything. I believe I kind of checked out after trade 3 and started trading like it was market replay which was foolish. For sim to be valuable I need to take it seriously, but ultimately I have a goal of doubling my sim account (from 2k to 4k), then resetting, doing it again (2k to 4k), then I will consider live. Today was a setback as it wiped out some of my good days last week. Ended day -9 ticks.
Trade 1: -4 Looking for a bounce at OR-L which also was aligned with ETH VWAP SD band. I knew something was wrong pretty soon on this one since price was just getting absorbed. Probably should have exited earlier. I certainly had a few chances.
Trade 2: -4 Tried bounce off ETH VWAP SD band. There was that big green bull bar with no break really in the follow through so not the best decision either. When I lose my first trade, I get into "salvage the day mode". When I lose the first two, I spiral into the realms of monkey brain.
Trade 3: -4 Probably should have called it a day at this point or even after the 2nd trade. Looking for bounce off ETH VWAP SD band but the POC was right above so also not a great decision.
Trade 4: +3 Finally a win. Desperation mode at this point. Took bounce off yesterday close since it worked a few minutes prior.
Trade 5: +1 Back to the yesterday close well. Price getting absorbed. Exited. If no semblance of a bounce after a few back a forth sessions. I'm out. This is at least an improvement from trade 1 when I knew in my gut I should exit but didn't.
Trade 6: -4 Tried bounce at prior high. Not sure why I even attempted this because no indication price was respecting this level earlier.
Trade 7: +3 Upset that I got stopped out to the tick and jumped back in. Pure monkey brain.
One trade today. Closed out at -1 tick which I'm happy about. If I would've kept my original 3 tick target this would've been a winner, but had an 8 tick target set today and was planning to trail my stop. Price getting absorbed so I figured the odds of going lower kept increasing. I tried to take a short at OR-L around 8:41 as well but my sell limit was a tick away from getting touched.
I had a losing day yesterday but didn't feel like posting. Some days just need to chill and close the laptop. Still logged those trades.
I feel like I learned something this week so the practice was worthwhile.
