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Trade 1 (Green Box): Volume spike, pushed well through VWAP - short + runner. Good trade
Trade 2 (Yellow Box): Long after 2k volume spike with OR-L as support. Wanted to close at VWAP when price stalled but did not get filled. This is an acceptable entry with a poor exit.
Trade 3 (Also yellow box): Stubborn - thought I'd give it another go after next volume spike. Clearly chopping. Bad trade. C'est la vie.
Trade 4 (Green Box): Broke away from that damned POC vortex which ruins all my trades. Took profit at VWAP. You can see that price stalled there but powered through. Probably could've left runner alone but hard to tell. When I see those pink hi-churn bars, anything can happen so I'll take the money and run.
Not a great day but I've had worse for sure. Ready for some market replay redemption tonight (hopefully).
Break even today after commission which is OK with me. Was trying out a stop loss of 7 and profit target of 6. Closed a few early when my confidence in a positive outcome deteriorated.
5 trades. Put boxes around them. Green = win, Yellow = pretty much a wash +2 or -2, Red = Loss
Trade 1: Thought we might bounce off weekly vwap. Also a volume spike but the ETH VWAP was overhead so maybe not the best in hindsight, but hard to say no to those volume spikes sometimes. Difficult starting the day on a loss but battled back.
Trade 2: 2k volume bar which is my min threshold + Two reversal renko bars. cleared Weekly VWAP. That POC in screenshot wasn't as developed at the time of trade if I remember correctly.
Trade 3: Tried bounce off ON-L. Late entry. Closed for -2 when price stalled.
Trade 4: VS and reversal bar went through ON-L which was the significant S/R line of morning so went short. Got out for +2 when price stalled.
Trade 5: VS off ON-L and two reversal renko bars. Cleared OR-L as well.
That's it for today. Have a nice holiday guys and gals!
Trade 1: Bounce off POC, 2.5k volume. Decent entry. Bad exit. Kind of choppy leading up which was not desirable. My gridlines are at a point so this one made it to 5 ticks, stalled. Probably should have close for a point but was greedy.
Trade 2: 4k Volume, This one also went for about 5 ticks before reversing. Had a big ol' volume ledge behind me + VWAP behind as well. Did not like Prior open directly in my path but took it anyway.
Trade 3: 6k Volume, off Value Area Low. Finally a winner
Trade 4: Worst trade of the day. Tried a reversal back into a huge volume ledge and VWAP. Don't know what I was thinking.
Trade 5: Best trade of day. Reversal off Reg Open, OR - L, and Overnight Mid.
Will review these in more details later tonight. Think I need to work on my exits. I think an issue is that I normally do market replay at 6x normal speed. I will pause it to put in a limit order when I see a potential setup I like. Then after entering I let it run and see if I win/lose. I think once I put my limit order in, I will go back to normal speed to work on exiting.
Scratched two and lost one. Poor outing today. The bright side is that I was in Sim, as I should be based on my current skill (or lack there of), so I didn't lose any money. I've been logging every trade on a day where the volume hits over 2k and have all these critera like which level(s) price hit, # of ticks, stop needed, trend or range, reversal or breakout, etc. Got a bunch.
I've started to see some interesting probabilities based on the entries I consider and kind of where I shoot myself in the foot. I'm a sucker for a breakout. But yeah, long way to go with that. Just going to keep plodding along. Any losing day I treat as a learning experience. That's what I tell myself.
I have a few areas I want to look at. I know that my current strategy gets me into a trade later than others since I require that volume confirmation before entering, but there are things that work even when waiting for the high volume bars.
So I just need to continue to think about filtering out all the garbage trades and hopefully once I collect more data, I'll be able to exert more self control and confidence in my strategy. And if there is no discernable edge after collecting a few months worth of data, I will reevaluate.
Trade Recap
Trade 1: Was hoping for a bounce off weekly VWAP but price not really moving so closed out for +2 ticks
Trade 2: Big L of the day. I actually moved my stop back on this one like a fool. First time I've done that. Big volume bar. Was looking for a reversal back down towards ETH VWAP. Again right around Reg open. Also prevailing trend from overnight session was bullish so probably not the best idea to have so much faith in this short.
Trade 3: Scratched this one just because price not moving with any conviction and probably still thinking about last loss. Would've been a winner if I stayed in trade. Woulda shoulda coulda.
In summary, lot to learn, the experience was valuable, on to market replay.
One trade today. Was a winner. VWAP bounce. This one only went for 6 ticks. Market was crawling so got out near open which was right around my target for this trade. I figured I needed a little confidence boost so decided to just watch after that one trade this morning. Wanted to have a winning day. I will replay the morning a few times tonight.
+2 Pts today. Did it on these tiny scalps where I was just looking for 2 ticks with a SL of 4 ticks. I know everyone says this doesn't work but it was working in market replay last night so figured what's the harm in testing. Will keep playing around with it and tracking results. Not getting my hopes up. It has been fun to test out however.
The main basis for the entry is to put a limit order in 1 tick above a closed high volume renko reversal bar (pink bar in most cases). The first trade was slightly different in that I just had a resting order on the ON-H. Every other one was I consider a high volume bar.
No trades yesterday. Won 2 out of 3 today. Most of my efforts lately have gone into tracking the characteristics of every single possible trade I would take from 8:30-9:00 and the outcome. Total pain in the butt, however it has been valuable. Takes me forever to log. I have this 200 tick chart to show the entries and exits but pretty much I'm using a 3 tick target and 4 tick stop.
You see my first trade got to 3 ticks but didn't go through (which I believe is required to win in Sim). Anywho these were risky trades anyway (due to how close they were to POC) so not sure I'd repeat them. I will keep logging away my findings from Market Replay sessions. I have found from my preliminary findings that trading too close to POC is doom for me. Also that 200 tick chart has gridlines set to 1 tick just in case you are wondering.
One trade today which was winner. Had a resting limit order on VWAP. Same as yesterday 3 tick PT and 4 tick Stop. There were a few that I passed up before this that would've been good but was hesitant.
