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Analytic Trading Journal-MES Futures


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Analytic Trading Journal-MES Futures

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  #11 (permalink)
New York NY/United States
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS NinjaTrader Jigsaw
Trading: Futures, Options, Stocks
 
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Posts: 34 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1 given, 11 received


6-19-2020

Deep Analysis

Expiration Day Behavior: Mean reverting to settlement price (3098)
Down Trending Behavior: SGI IMP 1 SD High Level at 3045 hit but price could not get above it
SGI IMP 1 SD Low Level at 3105 hit and breached to the downside.
3105 level becomes overhead resistance
Afternoon up volume pushes price to re-test 3105 twice but not enough SPX puts got closed to
facilitate buying of ES futures.
The fact that price couldn't get above 3105 was warning, When price couldn't hold 3098, that
was the signal to get out of long positions.




UNIRenko-Price-6-19-2020

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  #12 (permalink)
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Weekly Review:



2020-06-22 03_28_47-Trade Performance - Weekly

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  #13 (permalink)
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6-22-2020

Daily Review:

Market Condition: Short Cycle Mode with slight uptrend, Not much Momentum.
Action: Stayed in Sim, Trade size: 1-2 MES
Comments: Risk/Reward was bad today. Friday's settlement price held during the Globex session which was the foundation for the globex and daily uptrend.

Timing Model: Out of sync today on the higher time frames (Daily, 135 min, 60 min, 30 min, 15 min)
Direction Model: Slight continuation of overnight trend. Not much Momentum.
Pull Back Model: There were a few semi-decent pullback entry opportunities

MAX DD EOD = $72.03

Profit/MAX DD = 0.22

Average MFE/MAE = 1.42


2020-06-22 16_12_36-settlement


2020-06-22 16_02_12-Chart - ES_PP_UNRENKO_2-2-35_Price_Action



2020-06-22 15_47_53-Trade Performance - Report


2020-06-22 15_47_22-Trade Performance - Report


2020-06-22 15_46_39-Trade Performance - Report

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  #14 (permalink)
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Posts: 34 since Dec 2013
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6-23-2020

Daily Review

Market Condition: Weak NYSE Internals, uptrend lacked follow through
Action: Went long MES near daily gamma level SP IMP 1 SD Low of 3118.00
Comments: 3118.00 was my level to work with for longs. Overnight Price has reacted strongly to this level.

Timing Model: Daily Bias is Short till Friday, 3200 is a possible shorting level for Weds and Thurs
Intraday Bias is Long but limited until MES gets above and holds 3200.

Direction Model: Uptrend continuing with very low momentum. Downside Range expansion has happened on very low volume
with no follow through.

Pullback Model: 2 long pullback entries at 3132.25, and one short pullback entry at 3128.50, stop is 8 ticks.
Entries should only be taken in sync with timing and direction models. I did not take these trades
The upside target was 3144.00


Trade Size: 1-2 MES, Sim.

MAX DD EOD= 0.82
Profit/MAX DD = 153.54
Average MFE/MAE = 2.34




2020-06-23 18_19_21-PP


2020-06-23 18_16_37-Chart - ES_PP_UNRENKO_2-2-35_Price_Action


2020-06-23 18_38_27-relative volume


2020-06-23 15_58_16-Trade Performance - Report


2020-06-23 15_57_54-Trade Performance - Report


2020-06-23 15_57_11-Trade Performance - Report

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  #15 (permalink)
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6-24-2020

Daily Review

Market Condition: Downtrend with momentum
Action: Took mostly long bounces off strong levels
Comments: Was planning on going long in a live account but the price breakdown convinced me to stay in sim.

Timing Model: Daily: Short Bias, Intraday: Short Bias
Direction Model: Downtrend with momentum, Daily sell volume is at 149% Daily Range at 150%
Daily momentum is neutral, Intraday momentum is down.

Pullback model: 3105 Volatility trigger tested as resistance twice and held which caused major price
breakdown to 3019.50


MAX DD EOD = 663.90

Profit/Max DD = .60

Average MFE/MAE = 1.05



2020-06-25 01_08_24-critical pullback level for downtrend


2020-06-25 01_04_10-Chart - ES_Daily_Momentum


2020-06-25 01_03_01-Chart - ES_FUll_Daily_AK


2020-06-24 17_10_23-Trade Performance - Report


2020-06-24 17_09_55-Trade Performance - Report

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  #16 (permalink)
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I like your approach. I trade something similar. Do you wait for a particular set-up candle to enter or trade off of order flow?

Mark

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  #17 (permalink)
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6-25-2020

Daily Review



Market Condition: Consolidation between 3020 low and 3051.75 high,
market broke the high after 3 PM EDT and held it
Action: Waiting for trading model to get into sync, Was looking to go live but opportunity did not present itself.
Comments: Looking for another uptrend to new highs next week
ending the day before July 4th. Model must confirm the uptrend.

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  #18 (permalink)
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futurestradermark View Post
I like your approach. I trade something similar. Do you wait for a particular set-up candle to enter or trade off of order flow?

Mark

Pullback Unirenko candle entry in the direction of the model. I use order flow as well.

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The following user says Thank You to Analytic for this post:
 
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  #19 (permalink)
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Posts: 34 since Dec 2013
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6-26-2020

Daily Review

Market broke out of a consolidation range that was between 3020 and 3055

It didn't hold 3075, so the downtrend was still in play

3053- 3055 was the critical range for a break lower

once 3053 was broken it was safe to put a stop at 3055

The entire consolidation structure (3020-3055) once broken from the top caused price
to retrace all the way through it to 3020.

Once price broke through 3020 a new leg of the downtrend started.





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  #20 (permalink)
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Trading Stats from Friday 6-26-2020

Traded 1 MES Live:

MAX DD EOD = 10.82

Net Profit/MAX DD = 3.32

Average MFE/MAE = 1.33

2020-06-29 06_23_14-Trade Performance - Report


2020-06-29 06_23_57-Trade Performance - Report


2020-06-29 06_24_25-Trade Performance - Report



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