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A Doji's path to becoming a Jedi


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A Doji's path to becoming a Jedi

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  #91 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received

Patience + Confidence + Risk Management over the long run works. The issue I have at the moment is once in a trade to give enough rope to survive a bit of market noise but not enough to hang myself...

How to allow for this? as micro managing a trade will most of the time lead to an incorrect exit early (regardless if in profitnor loss) as can form many excuses to exit......walking away is just ignoring new information which as it evolves should be useful in evaluating the correct side of the market to be with.

The other aspect that is clear is being with a winner is easier than a loser. So might try out once in a trade assuming i have the opposite and manage it from there, when the gains feel too good and can run I exit, when the loss is unbearable i add and let run. i.e. trade like the poor trader of letting losses get to big and not letting profits run, but on opposite day.

Just a thought over a rainy weekend that wanted jotted down, will see if next week if in anyway useful or if ill scrap it.

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  #92 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received

Virus continues to spread at an increasing pace in US and more states are closing up/delaying opening again so struggle to see the big upside for risk locally, on top of this Biden still well ahead in polls and at some point market participants will have to focus on this election risk. S&P futures test below 200mda for the first time in a while and bounce holding the 3k level, expect another test of this before thinking we can go back to the 3050 area.

Expect this week to be light participation given 4th of july holidays. Decent amount of Eco data to drive low volume VOL.
Monday: German/Spanish CPI
Tuesday: China Man PMI, UK GDP, France CPI, EUR CPI
Weds: Japan Tankan, China Caixin PMI, EUR PMI, US ISM,
Thurs: US Jobless Claims
Friday: EUR PMI, UK PMI

Bigger Picture: Monthy - Inside, Weekly - Bullish, Daily - Bullish, need to test the 177.00 to keep bulls in control.

OV_Session:
Bunds open gap up followed by a big bull bar taking to the highs of 176.86 IB_HIGH_May_18th (which was a level that bunds bounce off of pretty hard going lower by over 100ticks) to then reverse 10bars down reaching 176.50 Y_IB_LOW at 720am. So with stocks unched would say bulls are still in control, though level wise we are stretched to the upside. watching 177.00 then 177.18 on the upside.

IB_Session:
7am @176.68 and was in mid downdraft after the overnight gap up. Spends from 715 to 830 below IB_MID, making me think today could breakout lower. Friday IB_Range is the same as today, so could just be consolidation at these higher levels so a boring inside day today. so keeping an eye here. Oil breaks above 38 giving some hope for positive risk on but eventually fails to hold and stocks retrace, though bunds hold at .50.

Thesis: Range inside day today with downside breakout potential (spending alot of time below IB_MID and Treasuries are on downtick and have outperformed bunds to give potential for the downside break following treasuries). Though be careful in US time as still expect S&P has another test of 3000 in it today.


Stocks tick lower, EUR ticks lower yet bunds cant hold higher levels, tests VWAP @ .58 and bounces, signaling to me that bulls are not confident at these higher levels so bears can take control.

Good luck

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  #93 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received


9am post CPI data coming in on upside bunds break lower through IB_LOW. SO downside is def open now, need to be patient for the stars to align with treasuries being offered / stocks/oil being bid to have some force behind a downtick otherwise will just be failed attempts.
Stocks break lower holding bunds in and recoup the .53 level making it look like we will see .59-.61 tested before resuming downside again.

Decent pause to go above VWAP so I take this chance to enter a short, will add another at .58 if we see but bunds are offered.

Trade 1:
Sell .55, SL .63, TP .38


want to see .49 in 15mins to have confirmation since this is against trend
add 1 at .57...within the 15min window we get to .49


then pause at .51 forever...taking alot in me to not cut here....doji doji doji...then breaks up, so I cut 1 contract at .51 next chance. odd price action given it felt so offered yet now that stocks turned positive it cant break .50.....exit 2nd contract at .51...will watch price action for a bit, but seems bears just dont have the ammo
+10ticks

Oil 2nd attempt today at 38 fails again
Sideways at .51 for over 30mins....going to be a tough boring week, need a new book to read.

10am...Eur Sentiment Indicators come in less optimistic....bull bar breaks to .55, watching to see around the .57-.60 area to determine trade, stocks still on uptick and oil around the 37.90 so still potential for a sell though price action doesnt make me feel like bears are confident.

Going to rain the rest of the week and since today is sideways Ive booked another round of golf.

Good Luck

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  #94 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received

1030am....Oil breaks above 38, bunds hold the .60 level and test .62 again but cant break to .63, so I sell for a quick trade to .51 again...Stocks tick up Eur ticks up and decent selling in Bund though .58 holds so I exit at .59...silly trade. I need to work on being able to hold a trade through sideways nothingness.

Bunds eventually broke down but against every other asset class, even treasuries. Negative correlation to treasuries and positive correlation to stocks....huh? Also positive delta divergence since 1pm so algos prob are following other assets too.


its days like these Im glad to have stepped away and enjoyed a round of golf, as cross correlations are whacky today....in past when this has happened its when we are infront of a bigger broader move in assets. Lets see what the US open brings, but my guess is S&P goes sub 3k again.

Off to get 5yr old from school, be back for 3pm.
Good Luck

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  #95 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received

No Eurex data in the AM until 6:45 so no real info on overnight session, though looking at Treasuries/S&P it was pretty muted 3pt/4pt range for most of the morning.

First bar at 640am was a big bull bar from .52 to .60. with treasuries all the way up at '13 would have expected bunds to have a 70s handle.
CPI data today at 7:45 then 10am.
French CPI a bit light, EURwide at 10am will give a clearer picture, though ECB for a while now has been saying they expect negative inflation prints.
8am big 16tick jump in Estoxx along with 20c jump in Oil, dont see much a driver..Spanish GDP inline.

815am...Prices take out the .66 to the upside which was the HoD for yest since 7am, looks like it just chased a few stops up there as it quickly came back below. Price action is saying higher and S&P seems to have trouble holding 3050, this is countered by negative delta divergence in bunds...though yest was a huge buying session so ill look past the -1k divergence. Need to remember today is qrtr end so could be rebalancing out of bonds into stocks due to performance, if it has not already happened, so watch the 3050 level. Also Oil over the past has trouble at usd40 and we at 39.44 so limited upside potential there.

IB_Range: on lower side of 14ticks.
Bigger Picture: Monthy - Inside, Weekly - Bullish, Daily - Bullish
Thesis: Upside breakout given sluggish stocks and HH from yest. breaking .61 to downside should provide an opportunity to buy in the .57 area with a stop at .54 as .55 been the level to break all yest afternoon and again today IB_Session.

Nothing overly New but a headline:
China says will take retaliatory measures on US ending special treatment of Hong Kong

Trade 1:
Buy .56, SL .46, TP .80 (or at 950am pre-CPI exit)
want to see .60 (VWAP) for confirmation. finally get there but stocks tick up, treasuries not moving higher and get negative velocity signal, so exit and will look for a lower entry
+3ticks


quick drop to .56, USD coming off highs and stocks ticking higher....will watch how price action is around the .55-.54 area might go retest Y_IB_Low = .47
Estoxx struggle at Y_Close 3220 and oil drops to LoD...miss trade as daughter wanted to play...big bull bar from .59-.65...makes a run at HoD but stops at .67 tests a few times but cant break...will look for a pullback to enter into new long.
Stuck in .60-.67 and in 25mins we have CPI numbers so ill take a break

Good Luck

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  #96 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received

Eventually making a new HoD @ 940 pre-CPI @ .71.... treasuries struggling to break '11.5.... into the eco data bunds dropped back to the .64 area
Looking more and more like a range day inside IB, maybe EUR CPI can shift for a breakout.

Comes inline to a smidge higher and price do nothing..actually EUR lower on the back of it testing 1.12....new HoD @ .75
Surprised USD hitting HoD @ 97.75 isnt hurting S&P more, also alot of noise around China/HongKong new law
10am - 1115 sideways once again betweek IB_HIGH @ .68 and HoD @ .75
starting to see some neg delta divergence and half of the gap between bunds and treasuries is filled so less of a bull bias now, though want to see EUR back above 1.121 prior to thinking short makes sense (currently at 1.12)

For some reason I thought it would be a good idea to take a trade within the sideways chop, i know this is wrong and should be reading a book during this time. Unforttunately it went against, broke the low of the chop zone but luckily stopped short of my .62 SL, bounced and exited on the next uptick. Oh well could have been worse.
-3ticks
these 7-10tick sideways moved for hrs kill me.
USD breaks to HoD, taking treasuries/bunds with it, gold/oil at LoD and stocks dont care....think im going to stop looking at equities as the correlations are just too muted at moment.
new HoD for bunds @ .80

starting to think that for me to be able to hold onto a trade through the noise I might just have to set it and walk away, think this will do 2 things.. 1) make it so i dont exit early and 2) make it so i choose trades more carefully as I will be risking the full SL. The aspect I miss is if the market gives me a signal that im wrong so its a balance of accepting the full SL vs partials.

off for a run
Good Luck

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  #97 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received

Qrtr end buying melt up in S&P looks to be the driver of a decent move lower in bunds down to 176.16. A bit surprised no concerns around China/HK law going into force but guess govts around globe will come around in due course.

Japanese data comes in worse
German retail sales big upside surprise

Gap opened up between Gold and Treasuries



and still a bit of room between treasuries and bunds


Which makes me initially lean to think we can recover some of the move lower from yest, also still not a buyer of stocks but that will change today if we can follow yest buying with another green day, but lets see what the IB session tells us. Looking at historical it seems in this area we are either going back to 176.60 or down to 175.60 in quick order.

OV_Session: Small gap lower and first two bars are down to test the 176.00 level and a bounce off of 175.96
IB_Session: First bar tries to go lower but ends up being a doji followed by two up bars filling the small overnight gap lower.
750am looks like data feed is not working

Bigger Picture: Monthy - Inside, Weekly - Bullish, Daily - Bullish
Thesis: No Eurex...day off, golf booked

PMI data this morning so wont start trading till 915am




Good Luck

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  #98 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received

No point in trying to trade now, Eurex didnt open until 1030 and I was already on the golf course. The one thing that i wanted to post was given the magnitude of the move (from 176.15 to 175.25) while delta divergence was positive throughout the day. Also a slow grind lower, no positive velocity signals, only negative.


Def one of those for the books on a continuation of capitulation.


Also one of how quickly the daily shifts a trend, so dont try to fade.
Only monkeys pick bottoms and tops.

Good Luck

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  #99 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received

Treasury to Gold gap closed.


USD not the driver, so recovery starting to take hold.
Oil ticking above 40, markets are sending some pretty positive signals today...banks not participating so tough to believe its long lasting.

Good Luck

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  #100 (permalink)
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
 
Posts: 148 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 17 given, 14 received


Id love for anyone that reads this to explain why the low of the 24th is the low of today?


thanks

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