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Diary of a simple price action trader


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Diary of a simple price action trader

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 Mich62 
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Good day one and all,

I thought I would join the June Journal Challenge contest and start a journal to participate in Big Mike's donation to help the poor people of Ecuador in these hard and uncertain times.

If I would end up by the first three journals chosen I would like to, if possible, sell the $500 SharkIndicators store credit to the highest bidder here on FIO. The money will go directly to Big Mike's organization 'Oasis Americas' to help the people of Ecuador. I feel I am behind because I must compete with older journals who have a lot of posts already. But anyway, so be it.

I also would like to donate 50% of the profits (if any) made by the end of the month. I wonder if it makes any difference (psychologically) when you trade for something or someone else as opposed to trading just for your own gain.

Besides participation in Big Mike's charity donations my objectives of the journal are:
1. to receive feed back.
2. to see if I will make better entries & exits (with less over-trading) now going on record.
3. to test and see if I have an edge (with a positive trading expectancy).
4. to identify areas for improvement (be it technical or psychological).
5. to see if a low(er) leveraged instrument like the Micro-ES can provide for an (extra) income.
6. to hopefully present something which you, the reader, can add to your methodology and thereby contribute to the community.
7. to learn from the experience of journaling in public.

Next post I will go into the method I will use.

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 Mich62 
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My main trading objective is to capitalize on intraday price movements in the e-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures.

METHOD
I will trade two Micro-ES (MES) contracts on a live account during the EU-session (AM & PM) and US-session (AM & PM). Times presented are Central European Time (UTC+2, ET+6).

Remark: Due to seasonality June may be a slow month. The SPY closed 42% of the months higher than it opened from 2007 to 2019. So may be it pays to be a bear in June but I will let the price action tell.

My tactic is to trade plain and simple based on: a) structure, b) price levels, c) momentum and d) volume using e) six straightforward setups.

Ad A) Structure: is price trending (higher highs/lows, lower lows/highs) or ranging (within last swing low/high or high/low)?

Ad B) Levels: do they act as support or resistance?
The levels to watch are:
- High, Low and Close of the previous day (ETH+RTH).
- Overnight High and Low.
- Open, High and Low of the trading day (RTH).
- Major Swing Levels.
- Range Highs & Lows.
- Volume Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low of the previous day (RTH).
- Initial Balance, Volume Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low of the trading day (RTH).

Besides for entries levels are also used for target points.

Ad C) Momentum: what is the force of the movement and what is the result? Momentum is made visible with a Keltner channel (2.5, EMA(20)) and the 310 Oscillator (Fast Line (FL) Oscillator = SMA(3)-SMA(10). Slow Line (SL) = a 16-period SMA of the oscillator).

Ad D) Volume: is quantity traded and expresses effort (which can be compared to the result). Volume is made visible vertical per bar and horizontal per price (Volume Profile) (and sometimes per swing/wave volume).

Ad E) The setups are:
- Pullback (PB): price retrieves (to ema20) after swing up/down.
- Complex Pullback (CPB): 2- or 3-leg Pullback (also abc correction, this is a PB on a Higher Time Frame).
- Trend Reversal (TR): Price stalls and reverses after a trend. Possible a kind of accumulation/distribution on a Lower Time Frame.
- Breakout Failure (BOF): Price breaks a level but is unable to follow through and the price level is rejected.
- Breakout Pullback (BOPB): Price breaks a level and pulls back to find support/resistance at the breakout level.
- Test (TST): a level is approached and tested but there is no real attempt to break the level.

I use time based charts:
- 60m, 30m, 15m for structure and levels.
- 3m, 1m are the main trading charts (with levels, momentum and volume).
- 30s, 20s, 10s (depending on volatility) for timing and detail price action.

I will sometimes also take a look at the 120m, 240m & the daily chart.

Every day I will journal/post my charts with entries/exits taken and technical analysis and more importantly psychological analysis.

I will not post the results until the end of the month because win or loss in the short term is meaningless. When testing a method one needs to look at a big enough sample.

There is lots and lots more to say but I think that along the way of the journal the application of the method will become more clear. Okay, it's time now to buckle up.

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 Mich62 
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EU AM session trading recap

Today is a bank holiday in the EU so I will watch the price action and will trade only when there is good movement. Normally I would watch the FDAX and FESX for confirmation but these are closed today.

I don't want to clutter up the charts too much so I will annotate the setups on the chart and will add additional comments in the post. I am not sure this works okay but we will see.


200601_MES_1m_EU_AM_trading_recap



Trade 1) Market is in an uptrend and ranging. Bought the low of the range, a breakout failure (BOF) and closed the trade mid-range as I didn't expect it to return to the upper side. One has got to trust his setups.

Trade 2) Was too late to trade the Breakout Pullback (BOPB). Decent breakout of the range with shallow pullback. When you see a move like this you (that is my monkey brain) want to be in it but I think it's difficult to find a good entry spot and often the market turns around just after you enter so I am not going to chase it. Get in at the start or else only on a good pullback. There will be more opportunities. Just keep calm and don't forget to breath.

Trade 3) Market is consolidating (in a range), breaks out and pulls back (BOPB). I didn't like the location on the 3m chart (between ema20 and lower Keltner band) so scratched the trade.


200601_MES_3m_EU_AM_trading_recap


Going to have lunch and see what the US has to offer later on.

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 Mich62 
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US AM session trading recap


200601_MES_1m_US_AM_trading_recap



Trade 1: Long on a pullback after the first swing up. The clue is to wait patiently for a signal, this time the rejection of lower prices with a down and an up bar on high volume (=demand on the 30s chart). I've got to be careful because the market is in a range (15m) and in an area where supply came in during the overnight session (EU morning, 04.09 ET). So took one contract off at a High Volume Node (HVN) and the other one at the swing high for 20t total. Market went up without much conviction, Shortening of the Thrust (SOT) and a lot of bar overlap. Seems the market is looking to fill the gap with Friday's close but it's not in a hurry.

Below details of the trade on the 30s chart.


200601_MES_30s_US_AM_1



Lunch time now, dinner for me

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 Mich62 
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I am going to wrap it up for the day. Did no more trades in the afternoon, so three trades in total for today.

Market opened in yesterday's (Friday's) range near valua area high. Did one trade in the morning on a pullback and missed the next breakout failure (BOF) for a gap play and test of Friday's High. Also missed the next BOF. But I am all right with that. Did not chase the market and didn't go on tilt or trying to force trades. Played on the save side but I guess that's what it is all about. I am not going for the big swings but instead focus on consistency. Was a busy (and long) day with the posting. Looking forward to tomorrow.

200601_MES_3m_US_PM_session_trading_recap

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 Mich62 
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EU AM session trading recap

I missed the BOF low range (2x). Still early in the session, EU just opened.

Trade 1: Long on a pullback. Closed at swing high for 10t. Entry was a little early.

Missed the pullback (1st cross long) for a test of YH.

Trade 2: Short for a reversal (mean reversion) for -4t. (would be a BOF May 28th swing high)

Trade 3: Re-entry short for -2t. Don't fight the trend.

Trade 4: Long complex pullback (bull flag) for 6t. (also breakout pullback to test May 28th swing high)

ES is strong. Missed the bull flag (complex pullback) breakout but went long the FDAX, which was lagging behind, for a catch up with ES. Closed for 25 points.

Total 10t MES & 50t FDAX.

I looked at 15m (May 28th swing high, therefore the shorts), 3m, 1m and 30s (tape reading) charts but don't think it will do any good to post them all so I will limit it to the 3m.


200602_EU_AM_session_trading_recap



Lunch time.

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 Mich62 
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200602 US AM session trading recap

The market yesterday closed up for 7 straight days. Today it opened outside yesterday's value and range near prior week/month's high.

Price went down to YC (gap close) and VPOC. Found support and rallied above prior week/month's high to overnight's (ON) VPOC (and ON double top swing high) before stalling and selling off. Round noon price is in a range hovering around VPOC.

Trade 1) Short on BOPB for 5t.

Trade 2) Short BOPB/BOF (LTF) for -5t.

Trade 3) Long PB for -1t. Scratched too early. Target Open.

Trade 4) Long PB for 17t. Good long on 1st PB after a swing up. Made use of the liquidity provided by the HOD breakout buyers and the buy stop orders from the shorts to close the position. Not important with 2 lots but I will need that liquidity soon when I am grown up and trade thousands of lots

Trade 5) Long Mean Reversion (MR) to VPOC. Closed BE after VPOC shift (and consolidation).

Total 16t.

All scalp trades. Will I ever be able to wait patiently for a reversal and sit the whole swing out from high to low or low to high? Do I need to?


200602_US_AM_session_trading_recap



Dinner time

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 Mich62 
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200602 US PM session trading recap

Trade 1) Short PB/TST at prior week/month's swing high resistance. Closed for -3t.

Trade 2) Re-entry closed for -3t. Was too early and should have waited for the failed breakout (BOF) which came shorlty thereafter.

Trade 3) Short again for 7t. Closed too early, should have taken profit at HVN below (VPOC later) for an extra 6t.

So two early entries (and exits) and one good entry but early exit for a total of 1t. Could it be I am a little bit impatient?

I think I call it a day for now.

Total for the day: 27t (and 25 points in the fdax).


200602_US_RTH_session_trading_recap



There is some tension in trading and knowing you are going to have it published. It's still a little early to say if that's more positive or more negative. Also the posting requires quite some work interfering with trading. It's better to do it after market close but for me that is 22.15 PM and by then I am behind the screen for almost 14 hours (with breaks when, of course, often the best opportunities occur). So, that's it for today folks. Take care.

#

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 Mich62 
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Trading the micro ES

When trading the micro-futures one gets easily disappointed to see a profit of only $25 on a 5-point trade. You might think that's not going to make me rich and then you start overtrading. Some may take on more micro-contracts while some may think it's too expensive (in commissions) and go right back to the mini to make some hay.

But the micros are a great instrument in that it lowers leverage. High leverage is the number one reason retail traders fail as is explained clearly in the video " CME Micro Indices : New Trading Opportunities w/FuturesTrader71".

One should not look at $$ but only look at ticks or points made or lost (and that only over a certain period). While trading the micro just assume you're trading the mini. A 5 point win suddenly looks very attractive. When you can make that consistently in the micro you can scale-up to more contracts and eventually to the mini while doing the same trades over and over again. But first you've got to build good habits while preserving your capital. I see no reason not to trade the micro unless you are consistently profitable and trade size.

Al Brooks wrote that when you can make 1 point a day you can be a millionaire in a year. It's the only thing I understood from his first book.

Trade well.

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 Mich62 
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EU AM session trading recap

Trade 1) Long BOF for 6t. Target is upper range. It's easy to get annoyed on an early exit and remorse about the $$ you left on the table but I've got to remain calm and composed.

Trade 2) Short BOF (or upthrust for Wyckoffians) for -1t. When price is not going my way I will close it (most of the time depending on the context). I can always re-enter but need to keep my losses small. And don't forget the trend is up.

Trade 3) Short BOF (re-enter) for 4t. Asia swing high could be support and it was. Market tested the high once more and I missed the breakdown writing this post.


200603_EU_AM_session_trading_recap



From one of the oldest books on speculation "Confusion de Confusiones" by Joseph de la Vega 1688:
"Take every gain without showing remorse about missed profits, because an eel may escape sooner than you think. It is wise to enjoy that which is possible without hoping for the continuance of a favorable conjuncture and the persistence of good luck".

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 Mich62 
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EU Lunchtime session trading recap

Traded during lunchtime and got whipsawed. When, finally, I had my entry short I placed the wrong target order that is I placed a Sell STP instead of what I thought to be a Buy LMT. Cannot believe this, I normally never make this kind of error. My sell stop was hit and market rallied, me short 4 lots. Closed right away but instead of a nice profit took a big hit. Total loss -68t.

This happens. The show must go on. Going for a walk. Be fresh for RTH open but now I've got to be alert not to go on tilt and start revenge trading. It's going to be a challenge.


200603_EU_Lunchtime_session_trading_recap

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 Mich62 
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US AM session trading recap

I feel a very strong urge to recover losses and make up for my bad trading. Don't want to post my losses at the end of the day so start revenge trading and dig myself further in the red. I need to solve that problem or else maybe stop journaling live if it is really starts getting in my way (besides the work). Got whipsawed again in the open. Tried to get in the market early for a bigger swing up (with trend) or down (for a gap close) but my timing was way-off. Didn't wait patiently for the obvious high probability trades like a normally do. They came later on and I could make some ticks back on 4 winners. This stimulates me to go on but maybe it's better to call it a day. Will see.

Trade 1) Short low for a gap close. Loss -11t. Should have waited for a breakdown pullback.
Trade 2) Long BOF low for a with-trend entry. Win 5t.
Trade 3) Long re-entry for continuation. Win 4t.
Trade 4) Short after wide bear bar (rejection high). Loss -34t (2x -17). Gave it too much room. Must wait for a breakout pullback.
Trade 5) Long in anticipation of breakout and continuation of the trend. Loss -10t. Very bad timed entry into resistance. Selling on prior bar.
Trade 6) Short high range after some selling occurred for move to the low. Stop outside range was hit. Loss -10t.
Trade 7) Long on BOPB for 4t. These are the trades. Price breaks out of consolidation and now it's play time.
Trade 8) Long re-entry for 6t. I scaled down to 1 contract so couldn't scale-out and let one go for a runner. That's a big mistake. This way I am not going to recover any losses made.
Trade 9) Long PB for 6t.
Trade 10) Short mean reversion for 5t.

Total 4 losses (-65t) & 6 winners (30t) for -35t.

Losses are bigger than the winners (besides giving a trade too much room and trading in a range also due to the fact that I scaled back to 1 contract).

I need to avoid the chop and wait patiently for the right setups to end in the plus.


200603_US_AM_session_trading_recap



Lunch time. Dinner for me

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 Mich62 
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200603 US PM session trading recap

Things weren't going that well today so I took a break and missed a lot of good opportunities, all breakout failures (BOF) to the downside (which is a good way to hop on the trend). But that's okay, easy going. Took one trade near the close in the last half hour, turned out to be the last BOF for 10t. Do this once a day with size and you can make a nice living (if you don't make stupid errors like selling instead of buying as I did this morning in the EU session).


200603_US_PM_session_trading_recap



Total for the day: -84t.

To summarize the day: some bad luck and some more bad trading. But still alive and ready to rock & roll tomorrow.


200603_US_RTH_session_trading_recap

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 Mich62 
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From the song "Amor Fati" by Washed Out:

Inside, you've got
The light to guide
Your fate decides
The world you're going to find


We are powerless over external events except for the power we hold to determine what they mean and how we will respond.

Ernest Green, the songwriter, about the process by which he created the song:
Amor Fati came to me “very quickly and painlessly. In my experience, the best songs happen like that. If I have to work really hard on a song, it’s usually not very good. The frustrating part is waiting for an ‘easy’ song to come along.”

In other words, the muses are not in the writer’s control. They visit randomly and surprisingly, and come bearing different levels of generosity which are equally unpredictable. What is in the writer’s control, however, is the patience to wait for them and the ability to recognize their arrival.

Now translate that to trading and you get:

The trades are not in the trader's control. They visit randomly and surprisingly, and come bearing different levels of generosity which are equally unpredictable. What is in the trader's control, however, is the patience to wait for them and the ability to recognize their arrival.

Each of us has a guiding light inside us—a power to recognize the right direction, the right song, the right choice—but the world, our fate, decides when and where it puts those things in front of us for our light to shine upon so that we may see it.

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Mich62 View Post
US AM session trading recap

I feel a very strong urge to recover losses and make up for my bad trading. Don't want to post my losses at the end of the day so start revenge trading and dig myself further in the red. I need to solve that problem or else maybe stop journaling live if it is really starts getting in my way (besides the work). Got whipsawed again in the open. Tried to get in the market early for a bigger swing up (with trend) or down (for a gap close) but my timing was way-off. Didn't wait patiently for the obvious high probability trades like a normally do. They came later on and I could make some ticks back on 4 winners. This stimulates me to go on but maybe it's better to call it a day. Will see.

I am by no means a professional trader, but I have been were you describe. Fighting through a few losing trades and then losing confidence and trying to recover those losses, taking trades that didn't fit my system just to recover those losses. What helped for me was to work on a system that defined my trades to the point that they can be programmed. There is no question about where to enter and where to exit. Studied it and made adjustments here and there. Proved to my self that even with the losses, over the long run it can squeak out a positive daily average. That doesn't mean every day is profitable. That gave me something to believe in. Some confidence taking the trade and accepting the level of risk.

Good luck

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 Mich62 
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Medge91 View Post
I am by no means a professional trader, but I have been were you describe. Fighting through a few losing trades and then losing confidence and trying to recover those losses, taking trades that didn't fit my system just to recover those losses. What helped for me was to work on a system that defined my trades to the point that they can be programmed. There is no question about where to enter and where to exit. Studied it and made adjustments here and there. Proved to my self that even with the losses, over the long run it can squeak out a positive daily average. That doesn't mean every day is profitable. That gave me something to believe in. Some confidence taking the trade and accepting the level of risk.

Good luck

Thanks for your post Medge91, good point.

I think that is indeed one of the main advantages of an automated system (with defined rules). It takes away the emotions but you have to trust and follow your system (all the way through the draw downs). I think BloodHound may be a good and helpful platform to create such a system. May be worth to spend some time on it but I like to finish this month first. I use so much things (discretionary) I think it will be difficult to mold it in some kind of system. But maybe when I simplify my rules.

Thanks again, much appreciated.

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 Mich62 
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One good trade is all it takes. And then one more. -Mike Bellafiore

It sometimes seems so obvious. Sold high range and closed mid-range because market was just open and a little bit slow searching for direction. Guess what, price pushed down to the low of the range (normally my target) and then all the way up to the high of the range. This is where a system clearly would have made more bucks. Look at the volume and how price acted at support. It often seems to me that big parties (or bots?) are playing around. Just have to follow them.


200604_ES_30s_1

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 Mich62 
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Good morning one and all,

Some readers might think it's nonsense to look at a 30s chart (noise) but for me it displays best the action of the tape. Of course I need to place the price action in the grand scheme of things and therefore I watch the 3m & 15m.

For example this morning the ES 15m displayed a beautiful "1st cross sell" setup (Linda Raschke). I use the 1m or 30s for timing my with-trend entry and keep risk the smallest. You can even catch a bigger swing this way. Don't get lost in the minutiae of the lower time frame.


200604_ES_15m_1stXPB



p.s. you might also notice the bull flag and sell divergence at the top.

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 Mich62 
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EU AM session trading recap

Only one trade this morning. Can not post and trade.


200604_EU_AM_session_trading_recap



Lunch time. Going for a walk.

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 Mich62 
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Market closed up for 8 straight days since the spring of May 22th.

Naked VPOCs below (yesterday ON and June 2nd).

200604_ES_15m_VP_Naked_VPOC

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 Mich62 
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Buyers at Y RTH Low bought price back to VPOC (and inside Y range and value) for now. Waiting for the open.

200604_ES_15m_VP_Buying_YRTH_Low

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Trading the micro ES

When trading the micro-futures one gets easily disappointed to see a profit of only $25 on a 5-point trade. You might think that's not going to make me rich and then you start overtrading. Some may take on more micro-contracts while some may think it's too expensive (in commissions) and go right back to the mini to make some hay.

But the micros are a great instrument in that it lowers leverage. High leverage is the number one reason retail traders fail as is explained clearly in the video " CME Micro Indices : New Trading Opportunities w/FuturesTrader71".

One should not look at $$ but only look at ticks or points made or lost (and that only over a certain period). While trading the micro just assume you're trading the mini. A 5 point win suddenly looks very attractive. When you can make that consistently in the micro you can scale-up to more contracts and eventually to the mini while doing the same trades over and over again. But first you've got to build good habits while preserving your capital. I see no reason not to trade the micro unless you are consistently profitable and trade size.

Al Brooks wrote that when you can make 1 point a day you can be a millionaire in a year. It's the only thing I understood from his first book.

Trade well.

There is SOOOOO much truth in this post. Read it! RE-READ again! Then read it AGAIN!

EVERY word in this post is so important.

Al Brooks is my mentor and I've recently found FT71. FT71, other than market profile, blows my mind. Everything this guy says RESONATES with me.

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 Mich62 
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US AM session trading recap

Good afternoon one and all,

I managed to stay out of the open rotation and waited for a range to establish.

Trade 1: Sideways trading meaning sell VAH/high range and buy VAL/low range. Just scalping in the range for 10t (till the market shows direction).

Missed the long entry on the first PB (on 30s) after the breakout.

Trade 2: Long 2nd PB/BOPB (1 bar PB). Was late with my entry, looks more like a breakout trade. Stopped for -8t.

Trade 3: Long BOF/CPB for -5t, closed too early. Was with-trend and should have give it some more room (at least till the low).

Trade 4: Re-entry long BOF/CPB, closed at target 1 / high (also YVAH) for 9t. Target 2 was ONH (Pre-High) and target 3 was YH. Had only one contract on. Best solid trade of the day. Nice PB, BOF low on prior bar and YVPOC support.

Was writing notes for this post and missed the run to ONH. It's difficult to trade and make notes. Still trying to find my way combining trading & posting.

Trade 5: Long PB to IBH for a test of ONH/YH. Closed, no follow through, for -2t.

Trade 6: Short on rejection high for mean reversion to vpoc. Stopped on test high for -22t (2x -11).

Trade 7: Long again for a test ONH & YH. Hold on to my long (trend is up!) and let it go against me. Disaster strikes.

Trade 8: Long scale-in on a PB to YVAH (still with-trend!). Thought YVPOC would offer support (and trend would resume after testing YVPOC) but price went straight through it to visit the next level, VAL. Closed it at Mid-Range / VAL for 2x -44 & 2x -24 = -136t (-34pts).

Total for the day -152t.


200604_US_AM_session_trading_recap



I think the micro is a great instrument to try things out without doing too much damage to the bankroll but it also can cause overtrading and taking on too much risk (just like sim-trading). I've got to keep it in check. So, done for today. I think I've played enough. Things aren't going that well, so quit for the day.

On a more positive note, I think I've learned a lesson or two (once again). And that's all what counts. We are here to learn. And losing (the right way) is one thing we need to learn before we can be a winner. Back on the horse again tomorrow. Take care.

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hugoab
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Trading the micro ES

When trading the micro-futures one gets easily disappointed to see a profit of only $25 on a 5-point trade. You might think that's not going to make me rich and then you start overtrading. Some may take on more micro-contracts while some may think it's too expensive (in commissions) and go right back to the mini to make some hay.

But the micros are a great instrument in that it lowers leverage. High leverage is the number one reason retail traders fail as is explained clearly in the video " CME Micro Indices : New Trading Opportunities w/FuturesTrader71".

One should not look at $$ but only look at ticks or points made or lost (and that only over a certain period). While trading the micro just assume you're trading the mini. A 5 point win suddenly looks very attractive. When you can make that consistently in the micro you can scale-up to more contracts and eventually to the mini while doing the same trades over and over again. But first you've got to build good habits while preserving your capital. I see no reason not to trade the micro unless you are consistently profitable and trade size.

Al Brooks wrote that when you can make 1 point a day you can be a millionaire in a year. It's the only thing I understood from his first book.

Trade well.

Totally agree with your thoughts in this post, micros I think it is a very good way to learn. Thanks for the journal, me being a beginner is going to learn a lot from it! wish you happy and successful trading!

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 Mich62 
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One should learn from his failures. Let it be a lesson, you've paid for it. (talking to myself)

Trades 7 & 8 yesterday (the ones that made me stop for the day) were really good trades if only I did the opposite of what I did. Why didn't I?

Because I was in a position and I had a plan, or maybe I should say, I was biased in the sense of, I think we are in a strong uptrend and we may see/test YH. Because I was in a position I did not see the signs the market was about to reverse (3 pushes up in an extended run, relative wide initial balance, shortening of the thrust, sell divergence). High prices attract sellers and I want to sell high, not buy when it's expensive. Buy when it's cheap. It's an auction. The market showed me that it doesn't care less what I think or expect. The market did it's own thing (matching buyers and sellers like an auction) and all I have to do is follow. My bias on the wrong side has some more consequences besides the loss:

I could not see the short opportunity for one. As a matter of fact, I was short just before I jumped in long on what looked like a pullback trend continuation and support at YVAH. The short (trade 6) was based on the high volume and low close (effort versus result, supply is coming in) but my entry was clearly a little early (wait for a test or kind of rejecting signal) and the stop in this case should go above the high so was too short.

When the market broke down I was still looking for an upward continuation. I thought YVAH (green dots) would provide support again (attract demand) so I scaled in. The market proved me wrong.

Because I was defending my trade I could not see what was really happening. The damage was done, financial and psychological. Another consequence was I had to stop for the day missing some good opportunities later on.

After a cold shower and a good dinner I was relaxed and did 2 small (1 lot) feel good scalps (not neccesary good trades) to end the day positive. Eh, a positive feeling that is, not de PnL of course. But your emotional state is more important than your PnL. Just like the process is, but that's another story.

Taking profits early and letting losers run is not going to make me a profitable trader. I need to keep my losses small (especially when scalping). And I need consistency.

Only when my balance has grown I can endorse concepts like "Let your winners run". Till then it's "Take your money and run".

Quote: The fact is that if you want to trade for a living, you need consistency a lot more than you need big wins, and veteran traders know that big wins don’t come consistently. The implication is that looking for big wins is less productive. The direction your account balance moves is more important than the speed at which it changes. Can you end each day with just a few ticks of profit? Small gains will keep you into the game. "Success is based on low expectations...Nickels Holding Up A Dollar" - Source: https://verniman.blogspot.com/2009/09/un-ano-sin-lehman.html.

I feel I have all the pieces of the puzzle but have yet to create the whole puzzle. I hope this diary helps.

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 Mich62 
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How to view the ES (ETH+RTH) and trade the MES on one chart in NinjaTrader 8.

I will look at the ES but when I make a trade it will be in the MES. To do this I made a chart with at least two Data Series. The first Data Series has to be (and this is important) the MES because the first Data Series will be automatically (by default) selected as Instrument when you select the chart window (in case you come back to the chart after you changed tabs to look at another chart).

The properties of the Data Series of the (invisible) MES are set as follows:
- Color for down bars to Transparent
- Color for up bars to Transparent
- Auto scale unchecked
- Panel 1
- Price Marker Visible: unchecked

Then add a second Data Series with the (visible) ES:
- Color for down bars: Red
- Color for up bars: LimeGreen
- Auto scale: checked
- Panel: 1
- Price Marker Visible: checked

I also add a third Data Series with (invisible) ES RTH Trading hours:
- Trading hours: CME US Index Futures RTH
- Color for down bars: Transparent
- Color for up bars: Transparent
- Auto scale: unchecked
- Panel: 1
- Price Marker Visible: unchecked

You now can add your indicators but make sure you select the right Input Series, that is the ES or ES RTH (under Indicator Properties).

This is how it looks like:




It's now very easy to make the transition to the ES (in time) without the need to change anything to the way you trade. Just delete the MES Data Series. You won't see any difference to the chart, it only has the ES as Instrument in the Chart Trader.

Happy trading!

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 Mich62 
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Outlook for 06/05:

The ES market is in an upsloping trend channel on the 15m, starting May 22nd. Yesterday was an inside day but closed off the lows. At 15:30 ET price tested the low of the channel and found buyers at the HVN / VPOC from June 3rd ON session. Overnight session is bullish. Market reacted bullish to a better as expected Unemployment Rate. Price is above yesterday's range and value. ON VPOC at 3134.75. HVN at 3142 and 3150. Inventory is below and sellers can enter the market (trigger stop orders). Levels to watch are HVN 3123.50, HVN 3118, HVN 3111, YC at 3110.50 (gap close), YVPOC 3111.25, YVAH 3114.50, YVAL 3096.50, ONH 3164.50 ONL 3106.50.

Scenario's: watch for the market to test yesterday's & ON levels and sell towards them. Not very likely seeing the bullish pressure at the moment. If unable to move down watch for a possible trend day (trend continuation) although it could be we've had the best of the run already for today. Buy towards ONH, 15m channel line!, 3200 round number. If a range day, buy the low and sell the high (not short because the possibility of a breakout in this strong up trend). Buy on a breakout pullback (when outside value). Watch for mean reversion trades to the VPOC when inside value (i.e. buy VAL).

Economic:
- Unemployment Rate came in at 13.3% (versus 19.4% expected)
- Non-Farm Employment Change came in at 2509K (versus expected -7750K)
- Average Hourly Earnings came in at -1.0% (versus expected 1.0%)

Not advice to trade on! Just for me trying to plan ahead of the day!

Trade well.


Jim Dalton on preparation:
"We should prepare every day by writing three potential scenarios that could happen. The worst trader is a trader that has only one idea. He may get lucky but there's too much randomness in the market. We don't know that's going to happen and if we don't have contingency plans for the unexpected, we're scrambling and when we scramble we do some really silly things."

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Medge91
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I enjoy reading all your quotes. Good luck with the trading.

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 Sandpaddict 
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US AM session trading recap

Good afternoon one and all,

I managed to stay out of the open rotation and waited for a range to establish.

Trade 1: Sideways trading meaning sell VAH/high range and buy VAL/low range. Just scalping in the range for 10t (till the market shows direction).

Missed the long entry on the first PB (on 30s) after the breakout.

Trade 2: Long 2nd PB/BOPB (1 bar PB). Was late with my entry, looks more like a breakout trade. Stopped for -8t.

Trade 3: Long BOF/CPB for -5t, closed too early. Was with-trend and should have give it some more room (at least till the low).

Trade 4: Re-entry long BOF/CPB, closed at target 1 / high (also YVAH) for 9t. Target 2 was ONH (Pre-High) and target 3 was YH. Had only one contract on. Best solid trade of the day. Nice PB, BOF low on prior bar and YVPOC support.

Was writing notes for this post and missed the run to ONH. It's difficult to trade and make notes. Still trying to find my way combining trading & posting.

Trade 5: Long PB to IBH for a test of ONH/YH. Closed, no follow through, for -2t.

Trade 6: Short on rejection high for mean reversion to vpoc. Stopped on test high for -22t (2x -11).

Trade 7: Long again for a test ONH & YH. Hold on to my long (trend is up!) and let it go against me. Disaster strikes.

Trade 8: Long scale-in on a PB to YVAH (still with-trend!). Thought YVPOC would offer support (and trend would resume after testing YVPOC) but price went straight through it to visit the next level, VAL. Closed it at Mid-Range / VAL for 2x -44 & 2x -24 = -136t (-34pts).

Total for the day -152t.


200604_US_AM_session_trading_recap



I think the micro is a great instrument to try things out without doing too much damage to the bankroll but it also can cause overtrading and taking on too much risk (just like sim-trading). I've got to keep it in check. So, done for today. I think I've played enough. Things aren't going that well, so quit for the day.

On a more positive note, I think I've learned a lesson or two (once again). And that's all what counts. We are here to learn. And losing (the right way) is one thing we need to learn before we can be a winner. Back on the horse again tomorrow. Take care.

This had been me lately too. Love the PTJ pic!!!!

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 Mich62 
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200605 US RTH session trading recap

Did I follow my rules? If not, where did I violate them and what should I do (or pay attention to) the next time? If yes, was it profitable? If profitable, is there anything I could have done better? If not profitable, is there anything I should/can change?

Trade 1: Long 30s PB for -16t.

Trade 2: Re-entry long PB for -10t. MFE=10. Didn't scalp the 10t but hold on for a bigger move. "Buy towards ONH, 15m channel line!, 3200 round number" I wrote in my pre-market notes.

> Trade 1 & 2 review: In hindsight they were not optimal entries on a pullback (PB) although it seemed so at the time on the 30s (price was above the developing VAH & held above ONH). Entry was near the Keltner channel and a little far from ema20 on the 3m, so due to pullback (or some more consolidation). I was probably a little bit eager to catch the breakout to the moon. I should have paid more attention to the 3m and try to enter at or near the ema20. The 2nd trade was stopped on the PB to the 3m ema20 which would have been a perfect long entry point (and a BOF on the 30s!).


200605_US_RTH_session_1_2

(trade 1 & 2)

Trade 3: Short high range for -8t. MFE=4.

> Trade 3 review: Market seemed to have lost his temper and is going sideways (ranging) so I gave up the idea of a breakout trend continuation and opted for a range day which was one of the scenario's. Price stalled at the high so went short with a tight 8t stop just outside the range. No follow through and stopped on breakout.

Trade 4: Long BO for 12t. MAE=3.

> Trade 4 review: There was demand in the background (at 10.39 ET) and the breakout was on good volume so instantly went long for a ride to the moon. "Buy towards ONH, 15m channel line!, 3200 round number" my plan told me. So what did I do? I took it off for 12t. Ha, that's in the pocket. You won't go broke taking a profit. I guess it was my scalping instinct or monkey mind, whatever (in fact it is called the disposition effect). Price hit 3200 in 26 minutes. I feel a cold shower moment nearing.

Trade 5: Long 3m PB (near ema20) and 30s BOF/low range for 8t.

> Trade 5 review: This is a good 2-leg PB with-trend entry on the 3m and a BOF on the 30s (with tight stop). Just took 8t at 30s swing high. Just in time, there was no follow through.

Trade 6: Short PB for -3t & -7t.

Trade 7: Re-entry short PB for -8t & -10t.

> Trade 6 & 7 review: Went short on a pullback after a move down (target IBH). The market is still bullish. The pullback was too short and I should have expected it to go some further, so entry was too early. Besides the entry too early I went short against strong buying at the swing low. Not smart. Down -28t.

Trade 8: Short PB/BOF for 2x -5t.

> Trade 8 review: Went short on a BOF (after PB) and clear rejecting of range high. Market pushed up one more time, took me out, and went south.

Trade 9: Re-entry short PB/BOF for 10t & 1t (MFE=5)

> Trade 9 review: Went immediately short again & scaled-in 1x on a pullback (on a winner this time). Closed at swing low, possible support.

Trade 10: Short PB continuation for -19t (MFE=4) & -22t

> Trade 10 review: Market sold-off heavy (or so it seemed). Went short 2x on an impulse in the middle of a range. Forgot every rule and before I knew it I was down 41t.

By now I realised the market was consolidating (a little too late) and so I took a break (and cold shower) for an hour and half (the break that is, not the cold shower).

15.11 ET, back for the last hour.

Trade 11: Long BOF for -7t

> Trade 11 review: Price was near support. Went long for a mean reversion (MR) trade to the VPOC. Stopped for -7t.

Trade 12: Re-entry long BOF for -3t. MFE=8.

> Trade 12 review: Long again on a re-entry. Market went 8t my way and came down again. Stopped for -3t.

Trade 13: Re-entry long BOF for BE. MFE=14.

> Trade 13 review: Strong buying at the low. Went long again (3rd attempt). Market went my way for 14t. Now I will let my winner run but am not going to let it turn into a loser so I raised my stop to BE. Stop was hit, price turned and went straight up to VPOC at 3199. Well, I'll be damned. I guess I pulled up my stop too early.

Trade 14: Short 30s PB/Bear Flag for -12t. MFE=0. Target >40t at 3181.50 (VAL).

> Trade 14 review: The move up (which I clearly missed) was a nice test of the VPOC and a nice pullback (3m) without continuation to the upside. So I decided to wait for a signal to go short with target VAL at 3181.50. Short on 30s PB/Bear Flag. Stopped out for -12t.

Trade 15: Re-entry short for 9t. MFE=20! Target approximately 40t at 3181.50 (VAL). Target hit 2.5 min after exit.

> Trade 15 review: Market went my way for 20t! Now I will let my winner run but am not going to let it turn into a loser so I raised my stop to BE. Market makes a double bottom and prints a wide bull bar. I hit the close button for 9t profit (of the 20t). Price turned and went straight down to VAL at 3181.50. Well, I'll be damned, for the 2nd time. I guess I should have left my stop at BE.


200605_US_RTH_session_11-15

(trades 11-15)

Total income after a day hard work (12h): -95t. Have a nice weekend!

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 Sandpaddict 
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200605 US RTH session trading recap

Did I follow my rules? If not, where did I violate them and what should I do (or pay attention to) the next time? If yes, was it profitable? If profitable, is there anything I could have done better? If not profitable, is there anything I should/can change?

Trade 1: Long 30s PB for -16t.

Trade 2: Re-entry long PB for -10t. MFE=10. Didn't scalp the 10t but hold on for a bigger move. "Buy towards ONH, 15m channel line!, 3200 round number" I wrote in my pre-market notes.

> Trade 1 & 2 review: In hindsight they were not optimal entries on a pullback (PB) although it seemed so at the time on the 30s (price was above the developing VAH & held above ONH). Entry was near the Keltner channel and a little far from ema20 on the 3m, so due to pullback (or some more consolidation). I was probably a little bit eager to catch the breakout to the moon. I should have paid more attention to the 3m and try to enter at or near the ema20. The 2nd trade was stopped on the PB to the 3m ema20 which would have been a perfect long entry point (and a BOF on the 30s!).


200605_US_RTH_session_1_2

(trade 1 & 2)

Trade 3: Short high range for -8t. MFE=4.

> Trade 3 review: Market seemed to have lost his temper and is going sideways (ranging) so I gave up the idea of a breakout trend continuation and opted for a range day which was one of the scenario's. Price stalled at the high so went short with a tight 8t stop just outside the range. No follow through and stopped on breakout.

Trade 4: Long BO for 12t. MAE=3.

> Trade 4 review: There was demand in the background (at 10.39 ET) and the breakout was on good volume so instantly went long for a ride to the moon. "Buy towards ONH, 15m channel line!, 3200 round number" my plan told me. So what did I do? I took it off for 12t. Ha, that's in the pocket. You won't go broke taking a profit. I guess it was my scalping instinct or monkey mind, whatever (in fact it is called the disposition effect). Price hit 3200 in 26 minutes. I feel a cold shower moment nearing.

Trade 5: Long 3m PB (near ema20) and 30s BOF/low range for 8t.

> Trade 5 review: This is a good 2-leg PB with-trend entry on the 3m and a BOF on the 30s (with tight stop). Just took 8t at 30s swing high. Just in time, there was no follow through.

Trade 6: Short PB for -3t & -7t.

Trade 7: Re-entry short PB for -8t & -10t.

> Trade 6 & 7 review: Went short on a pullback after a move down (target IBH). The market is still bullish. The pullback was too short and I should have expected it to go some further, so entry was too early. Besides the entry too early I went short against strong buying at the swing low. Not smart. Down -28t.

Trade 8: Short PB/BOF for 2x -5t.

> Trade 8 review: Went short on a BOF (after PB) and clear rejecting of range high. Market pushed up one more time, took me out, and went south.

Trade 9: Re-entry short PB/BOF for 10t & 1t (MFE=5)

> Trade 9 review: Went immediately short again & scaled-in 1x on a pullback (on a winner this time). Closed at swing low, possible support.

Trade 10: Short PB continuation for -19t (MFE=4) & -22t

> Trade 10 review: Market sold-off heavy (or so it seemed). Went short 2x on an impulse in the middle of a range. Forgot every rule and before I knew it I was down 41t.

By now I realised the market was consolidating (a little too late) and so I took a break (and cold shower) for an hour and half (the break that is, not the cold shower).

15.11 ET, back for the last hour.

Trade 11: Long BOF for -7t

> Trade 11 review: Price was near support. Went long for a mean reversion (MR) trade to the VPOC. Stopped for -7t.

Trade 12: Re-entry long BOF for -3t. MFE=8.

> Trade 12 review: Long again on a re-entry. Market went 8t my way and came down again. Stopped for -3t.

Trade 13: Re-entry long BOF for BE. MFE=14.

> Trade 13 review: Strong buying at the low. Went long again (3rd attempt). Market went my way for 14t. Now I will let my winner run but am not going to let it turn into a loser so I raised my stop to BE. Stop was hit, price turned and went straight up to VPOC at 3199. Well, I'll be damned. I guess I pulled up my stop too early.

Trade 14: Short 30s PB/Bear Flag for -12t. MFE=0. Target >40t at 3181.50 (VAL).

> Trade 14 review: The move up (which I clearly missed) was a nice test of the VPOC and a nice pullback (3m) without continuation to the upside. So I decided to wait for a signal to go short with target VAL at 3181.50. Short on 30s PB/Bear Flag. Stopped out for -12t.

Trade 15: Re-entry short for 9t. MFE=20! Target approximately 40t at 3181.50 (VAL). Target hit 2.5 min after exit.

> Trade 15 review: Market went my way for 20t! Now I will let my winner run but am not going to let it turn into a loser so I raised my stop to BE. Market makes a double bottom and prints a wide bull bar. I hit the close button for 9t profit (of the 20t). Price turned and went straight down to VAL at 3181.50. Well, I'll be damned, for the 2nd time. I guess I should have left my stop at BE.


200605_US_RTH_session_11-15

(trades 11-15)

Total income after a day hard work (12h): -95t. Have a nice weekend!

-95 Ouch!!! This has been MY trading in the last couple of days as well. Blew account! (Fell below margin)

I got frustrated that my method wasnt providing more. After a week of going live I was break even. (I think my max intraday drawdown was -36 POINTS-ish! Still, whatever your -# is you now need to get +# just to break even... including any -# along the way.)

I did not like having to trade +36 points just to BREAK EVEN! Even though mostly i did. But slowly this started me trading crazy, thinking I was using logic. Thinking I'll just cut this... let that ride... crap... reverse... crap... stop... move stop... crap...

Well...

Going back to tying to make a few POINTS by NEVER touching if in profits till targets hit. I start with wide initial stops and can tighten but NEVER widen. I try not to break even unless I can cover at least two commissions and its already gone against me at least once. Those are about my only rules. (Also going to try with two contracts so I can scale but thats besides the point)

You are a fire hydrant of information. I have no idea how you keep up with it all. Lol Very impressive. I just try to get in and manage my trade.

Like all your detailed information though its great. Thank you!

Just thought you might try testing a few of those rules I mentioned above. If you have and I'm out of line I apologize. Just some thoughts.




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 Mich62 
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No trades during the EU session.

200608 US RTH session trading recap

Trade 1: Short high range (IBH, YH, ONH) for a 4pt mean reversion trade to the VPOC @3205.25. Scratched for -2t. Target reached after exit.
Trade 2: Long BOPB 5m OR (and at VAH support) for trend continuation, -10t.
Trade 3: Re-entry (trade 2) long, -3t.
Trade 4: Re-entry (trade 2) long for 4t.
Trade 2, 3 and 4 were actually one trade to catch a with-trend move up. Market went sideways for 1.5h (lunch time).
Trade 5: Short PB for a gap close (target YC & ONL), -10t. Entry is in the middle of the range, trend is up.
Trade 6: Long PB, 4t. No follow through.
Trade 7: Short (just below VAH) for a mean reversion trade to VPOC, -7t. No follow through, sideways and up.
Trade 8: Re-entry short, -8t.
Trade 9: Long on impulse, -3t.
Trade 10: Re-entry (trade 8) short, -8t.
Trade 11: Re-entry (trade 8) short, -24t.

Total loss 16.75 points (2 small winners, 9 losers)

I am clearly not in sync with the market. May take a break to work things out.

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 Mich62 
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I really was not content with my trading and took some time off to work things out.

I am very hard trying to make every day, or even every trade, a positive one. This leads to forcing trades (with bad timed entries/exits), FOMO, revenge trading and ultimately overtrading. This is not how successful trading is supposed to be.

I don't think trading a lot is necessarily a bad thing (when scalping) but it is when it's motivated by a feeling to prove something, an urge to make up for losses made or trying to get even. Revenge trading comes in all kind of flavors. I guess a mental trading coach can help with this but as a retail trader you don't have access to a trustworthy first class coach and I wonder if reading Brett Steenbarger, Mark Douglas and the like will be enough. You still have to do it yourself. I believe trading is not so much a technical game, this can be learned, but more a mental game. I studied a lot on this subject and still struggle with the implementation.

This journal is like a mirror and really helps to reflect on my trading. I believe that going through this process will take me a step further and that's why I continue my journal.

So back to the basics. Identify a setup and trade this setup the best you can over a certain period of time. This will be my goal for the rest of the month.

I trade one instrument (MES) and using only one setup may give too little signals during the day. That's why I will stay with the setups mentioned in post #2. Additional to these setups I may take a Mean Reversion (MR) trade from Valua Area High/Low (VAH/VAL) to the Volume Point of Control (VPOC) in a balanced market.

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 Mich62 
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200610 US AM session trading recap

- Skipped the gap close on the open (after rejecting higher prices in the first three minutes and test & reject YVAH 3214.50 & ON VPOC 3215).
- Skipped 1st 1m PB (to ema20, VWAP & YVPOC, 1st cross sell), target YVAL, ONL, YL (1st PB after open, 2nd from swing high).
- Trade 1: Short PB. Closed bc no follow through (and possible 2nd leg PB). Late in swing down and buying from the last swing low looked strong (with wide green candles which signal at least a possible 2nd leg).
- Missed 2nd leg PB (abc) short for test ONL & YL (didn't want to get in so soon after the last trade but I should have, was a nice (re-)entry with a lower high on the 2nd leg which signals there's no more buying).
- Low range support at 3183.25 (low of last swing to the high June 8th / 60m).
- Not taking the first PB (1m 1st cross buy) after the first swing up from the low bc still down on the 3m and below VWAP. But above support (ONL, YL, 60m low range, oversold 15m).
- 11:00 ET: 3 pushes down & SOT (3m).
- 11:36 ET: trapped shorts but not going long into swing high resistance (from 10:41).
- Trade 2: BOF at prior swing high (10:41) (mean reversion scalp to HVN / VPOC)
Total 3.75 pts

200610_US_AM_session_trading_recap



Lunch time and waiting for FOMC at 14:00.

No trades during PM session. Just watched and relaxed.

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 Mich62 
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200611 Market Prep.

YC 3185.25. Bearish sentiment during Asia & EU session. Market sold-off to 3098.25 (ONL).

Levels below: @3087.50 (June 4th Low), 3080 (LVN), 3065.50 (PMH), 3060.75 (NVPOC June 2nd), 3008.25 (HVN), 2947.50 (Composite VPOC), 2935.75 (NVPOC May 22nd).

Yesterday's Levels: YVPOC 3194.50, YVAL 3186.75, YVAH 3203.75, YL 3179.75 YH 3221.25.

Levels ON: ONH 3188.50, ONL 3098.25, VPOC 3131.75, VAH 3158.50, VAL 3107.50, HVN 3103.25.

Scenarios:
1. Market comes to a halt and grinds sideways (ranging). Sell on range high / VAH resistance and buy at range low / VAL support. Use VPOC and range opposite as targets.
2. Continuation of the downtrend. Sell on PBs & upside BOFs. Trade towards lower levels.
3. Reversal of EU downtrend and gap close (test ON & yesterday's levels): Buy on PBs & downside BOFs towards higher levels.

These are just notes for myself!

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 Mich62 
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200611 US RTH session trading recap

Trade 1: Long on a pullback after an impulse up on the 30s. Exit at RTH open, scalp for 2.5 pts.
Trade 2: Short on a pullback for 3.5 pts. Exit at low. Entry into support, not much potential.
Trade 3: Short pullback for 5 pts. Exit at low. Late in move down.
Total 11 pts.

Trade 1 and 2 were scalps within the first hour range. Trade 3 was a nice with-trend entry but very late in the move down.

Scenario 2 played out after ranging for an hour (scenario 1). I didn't play it as planned. I had better focused on an short entry on a pullback to ema20 early on in the day (or an upside BOF) and held it till it closed above ema20.

Three winners out of three but I missed the whole move down and didn't act as planned.

It's a constant battle. I must push myself hard to do the right thing and that is to enter & exit according to my rules and play the scenarios as I planned them.

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 Mich62 
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200612 US RTH session trading recap

I didn't start well today. I was late with my market preparation and hadn't enough time to write it down. Doing my market preparation before the open is important. It brings me in tune with the market and acts like a kind of map. It's also good for confidence build up. If doing my preparation during market open I am already behind. Price opened inside yesterday's range above value near ONH. I decided to wait for the market to show some direction. After 20 minutes things lined up.

Trade 1: Short 30s 2-leg pullback (ABC) which is a pullback on a higher time frame (3m). There was no immediate follow through and buying came in so I closed the trade for 2x 0.5 pt. I want to see it going right out of the gate or else I am out. Because of the buying and lack of supply I didn't re-enter. There was also a possibility for a mean reversion to the VPOC. Take as less risk as possible. There is always another opportunity.

Trade 2: Short on pullback. Closed again on buying for 4.75 pts. There were some nice levels below (YC, YVPOC, ONL) which act as a magnet and once achieved can attract buying. It's a pity I missed a nice and rather straightforward move.

Trade 3: Long on PB. Closed BE.

Total 5.75 pts.

I had problems with my charts. At one moment there was a 10 pt spread between the ES and the MES. Looked like the ES was lagging behind and could not keep up with the MES. Could be a problem caused by roll-over, wrong data or last NT version which I installed this morning. Whatever, I could not trade anymore and stopped for the day.

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 Mich62 
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206015 Market Prep.

Prior week levels: PWC 3023.75 PWL 2971.00 PWH 3055.00
Yesterday's levels: YH 3076.75 YL 2971.00 YC 3024.25 YVPOC 3010.25 VAH 3040.00 VAL 2992.75
Overnight levels: ONH 2997.75 ONL 2923.75 VPOC 2966.00 VAH 2992.00 VAL 2953.50
Daily levels: 2981.50 2893.25
Weekly levels: 3220.75 2954.50 2749.75 2706.75

Price @2964.00 is below yesterday's low and below value 2992.75. Bearish.

Market sold-off in Asia session, came back in EU session (to daily level @2981.50). On 60m: downtrend (3 pushes down, buy divergence). On 15m: ranging. On 3m: ranging

Scenarios:
1. On bearish strength: sell towards ONL, daily level 2893.25.
2. On bullish strength: buy towards ONH, daily level 2981.50, YVPOC, YC (Gap fill)
3. When ranging: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC.

These are just notes for myself! Don't use it to trade on.

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 Mich62 
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200615 US AM session trading recap

Trade 1: Long PB (lower time frame) for -5.25 pts. Entry is too early. Need to be patient. Wait for a 3m ema20 PB. Now it's more a breakout trade (into prior swing high resistance). Bad entry.
Trade 2: Re-entry long PB for -3.50 pts. Need to be patient. See Trade 1.
Trade 3: Re-entry long PB for 10 pts. This is the correct entry. Nice 3m ema20 PB and almost 50% retracement. Out at daily level. Just wait for the right entry.
Trade 4: Long PB for -2.75 pts. Too early, see trade 1. We were now inside yesterday's value and it looked like YVAL was support (buying). Played for next level which is yesterday's naked VPOC. I should have recognized we just reached target ONH (which became IBH). Also, the swing was extended and due for a pullback. Bad entry.
Trade 5: Re-entry long PB for -3 pts. Too early. See trade 4.
Trade 6: Short mean reversion to 3m ema20 & VPOC for 3.75 pts. Closed a little early. VPOC was hit for a potential 2.5 pts extra.
Trade 7: Long PB (trend continuation) for 1.25 pts. Play for ONH/IBH, YVPOC and YC.
Trade 8: Re-entry long PB for 5.50 pts. Chickened out. Should at least wait till last high at ONH & IBH (for a test).
Trade 9: Long on support at ONH / IBH (after breakout) for -3 pts. Stopped on PB.
Trade 10: Long PB (YVAL provided support) for 7.25 pts. Played for YVPOC (naked). Closed little too early (on consolidation on lower time-frame). YVPOC was hit for a potential 4.5 pts extra.

Total profit 10.25 pts.

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 Mich62 
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200615 US PM session trading recap

Trade 11: Long PB for a test of the high and possibly YH. Closed for 0.75 pts based no follow through.

No more trades as I had problems with my NinjaTrader charts again (just like last Friday). When things get a little more volatile ES is lagging. I use ES and MES on one chart which I think may be causing the problem. I am thinking to just watch and trade the MES and see how that turns out.

Total profit for the day is 11 pts.

Scenario 2 played out. On bullish strength: buy towards ONH, daily level 2981.50, YVPOC, YC (Gap fill)

Placed 1 mean reversion (counter-trend ) trade and 10 (with-trend) long trades from which a couple with a too early entry resulting in a loss. In total 5 losers & 6 winners. Today I was good positioned with the trend. I should try to be a little more patient with my entries and let the winners run a little further so they can reach target.

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 Mich62 
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200616 US AM session trading recap

No trades so far. I was out and returned around noon. As I wrote earlier I use the ES chart (for the data) together with the MES (to trade). When it gets a little more volatile the ES data is not updated. So the data I look at is not correct. Imagine what will happen when I put a trade on. Surprise, surprise. It happened Friday, yesterday and now again.

I just filed a service request with NinjaTrader. I have to wait for their reaction or maybe change my setup and look and trade only the MES. Or maybe it's an indicator? So, I am afraid not much trading today.

Follow up:

Got response from NinjaTrader. They are always quick to react. Seems some third party indicators I use are taking more time to calculate and therefore the platform will not be able to render the graphics quick enough to display this information. I will have to look into all my chart- & indicator settings and maybe reduce the usage of them.

No trades today. Hope I will be up & running again tomorrow.

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 Mich62 
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200618 Market prep.

Yesterday was an inside day (ES). When we get an inside today (inside June 16th) we will have a 3-bar triangle.

Price went through YL and made the ONL during the Asia session. After making the ONL price turned up to reach RTH YVPOC and RTH YYVPOC and found resistance at YVAH at the end of the EU morning session. From there price turned lower outside YVA and below YL to possibly open gap down outside yesterday's range and value which is bearish. However, price is still in an uptrend on the daily and ranging on the 1h. At the moment of writing price is pulling back to YL.

Yesterday's levels: YH 3130.25 YL 3094.50 YC 3106.50 YVPOC 3115.25 YVAH 3118.75 YVAL 3101.00
Overnight levels: ONH 3120.00 ONL 3064.50

Scenarios:
1. On supply sell PBs and upside BOFs towards 3063.
2. On demand buy PBs, BOPBs and downside BOFs towards YVAL, YC, YVPOC, ONH, YVAH, YH.
3. When ranging: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

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 Mich62 
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EU & US AM session trading recap

Trade 1 (EU): Long 3m BOPB & BOF (YL provided support) for last swing high & EU session high (2.5 pts).
Trade 2: Long 10s PB for YVAL (reached). Closed BE.
Trade 3: Long PB for YVAL (-1.5 pts).
Trade 4: Re-entry long (-2 pts).
Trade 5: Re-entry long (2.75 pts).
Trade 6: Long PB for YC. Closed BE.
Trade 7: Re-entry long (-1.75).
Trade 8: Short VAH for MR (-3.5 pts).
Trade 9: Re-entry short (3.25 pts).
Trade 10: Re-entry short (-3.25 pts).
Trade 11: Re-entry short for -4.5 pts.
Trade 12: Long for YC. Closed BE.
Trade 13: Long after wash-out for swing high, channel high, YC (gap fill) (5.25 pts).
Trade 14: Long PB for HOD & YVPOC (1 pt).
Trade 15: Re-entry long PB (-0.25 pt).
Trade 16: Short for MR (1 pt).
Trade 17: Short 1m PB for MR mid-range scalp (1.75 pts).

Total 0.75 pt. (7x W / 7x L / 3x BE). Winners & losers even out. Going broke because of costs.

Market was up for the first two hours. That would be scenario 2 so I played long (4x W / 4x L / 3x BE). But it was not looking strong (a lot of overlap, SOT) and so I did a couple of short mean reversion trades (3x W / 3x L / none BE). On a higher time frame we are in a range (3063-3156). Volume profile is balanced.

I think I should be more selective with my entries & exits, do less compulsive trading. Could it be I have OCD?

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 Mich62 
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US PM session trading recap

Trade 18: Long BOF at YL / VAL (3m oversold) for MR to VWAP, ema20, VPOC. Closed at 10s range high (3096.25) based possibly resistance. Market reached VWAP, 3m ema20 & VPOC at 3099.75. Closed too early (1.25 pts).

Didn't take the 3m ema20 PB short because we were at VPOC and market was balanced. May go to VAH. And it did! One 3m bar stretching from VAL to VAH (9.25 pts). Remarkable.

Trade 19: Short 3m ema20 PB & BOPB for LOD, ONL. Stopped (-2.50 pts). Entry was legitimate but I was trapped (and so reversed to long).

Trade 20: Long 3m outside reversal at VAL for VPOC. Target reached (3 pts).

Price is back at value. No more trades. Total for the day 2.50 pts.

I traded calm and focused. Tilt because of mental issues was less of a problem today but I think I should try to trade less and be more selective with my entries & exits.

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 Mich62 
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200619 08:30 ET Market prep.

Yesterday ES stayed inside June 16th printing a 3-bar triangle on the daily.

Price went more or less sideways during the Asia session after making the ONL. Price turned up during the EU session and broke YVAH & YH to print the ONH. Price then pulled back to YH, found support, and went up to print a new ONH. Looks like ES is going to open outside value and yesterday's range which is bullish.

Yesterday's levels: YH 3120.00 (eth) / 3109.00 (rth) YL 3080.75 (rth) / 3064.50 (eth) YC 3098.75 YVPOC 3101.25 YVAH 3104.27 YVAL 3094.25.
Overnight levels: ONH 3137.50 ONL 3094.75.

Scenarios:
1. We may test lower levels (overnight inventory almost 100% net long): YH, YVAH, YVPOC & YC (gap play). On weakness sell towards these levels.
2. We may continue the uptrend. On strength buy PBs and downside BOFs towards June 17th and 16th high. An daily 3-bar triangle breakout may lead to ATH but I am not ruling out we are just testing the sell-off from June 11th. Have to see how price behaves.
3. The run may stall and price might be going sideways (it's Friday but also quadruple witching): sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

Remember today is quadruple witching.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

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 Mich62 
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200619 US session trading recap

Trade 1: Short 1m PB (-1.50). Entry was too early. A 1-leg PB on the 1m is often too early! I should wait for at least a 2-leg (ABC) PB on the 1m which is a 1-leg PB on the HTF 3m (to ema20). Or a 3m 2-leg PB which is a 1-leg on the 15m (and a CPB on the 1m).

Trade 2: Re-entry short (2.50). This is a better entry to wait for. A 2-leg PB (on the 1m) with a lower high on the 2nd leg.

Yet a better entry (which I missed) would have been the 2-leg PB on the 3m (CPB on the 1m) which touched ema20 and was a 1-leg PB on the 15m. I should pay more attention to the higher time frame and use the 1m only for better timing and shorter stops.

Trade 3: Short 1m PB (-1.00). Entry was too early. Did not want to take too much risk so closed it (too early) when it went against me.
Trade 4: Re-entry short (1.75).
Trade 5: Long MR (-2.75). Stopped.
Trade 6: Short PB (-2.75). Stopped.
Trade 7: Long MR (-1.75). Stopped.
Trade 8: Short PB (0.25). MFE=2.25. Let it go for a bigger move down but closed it when it came back. I often regret I didn't took the 2 pts. Market pulled back to 3m ema20, 6.25 pts against me. But first it looked like it was still going lower and so I went short again (9).
Trade 9: Re-entry short (-1.25). Bad entry location. Buying in the background and far from 3m ema20.
Trade 10: Short 3m PB (-1.25). Out on small 2nd leg PB.
Trade 11: Long MR / Reversal (-1.75). Trapped going long too early.

The -1.75 loss from trade 11 is not the problem. What is, this was the near perfect short entry (2-legs on the 3m and a 1-bar leg on the 15m) which I missed while going long. After 7 short entries (3 t/m 10 ex 5) to hop on the trend I missed the obvious short entry completely.

Now things are starting to get out of hand. I am trading in the middle of a range with no clear entries (5 t/m 9). While just trying to catch a move losses can add up quickly. Score till now -9.50 pts.

Trade 12: Long MR after spike down to a 1h level (3117) and back to the range. Buying emerged at the low and signs of no supply (10s) (5.00).

Trade 13: Long MR (-2.00).

Trade 14: Short for a test of the low (4.00).

Trade 15: Long MR after testing the low (HL) (3.75).

Trade 16: Long 3m PB for a quick scalp (2.00).

Total for the day 3.25 pts. (9x L / 7x W)

Trades 5 and 6 were the biggest losers for the day (2x -2.75). Unnecessary while trading in the middle of the range. Should try to avoid these low probability entries when price can go either way.

Trade 12 was the biggest win for the day (5.00). I think I made good use of the volatility although against the trend and so limited in potential. I had an 1h level at 3117. When buying these kind of lows you quickly find out if you're right or wrong. I didn't give it much room. The last swing low at 3123 was my target.

Trades 14 & 15 were the next two biggest winners with 4 & 3.75 pts. Basically just scalping within the legs of a PB.

I still think I trade too much and too often in congestion areas. Meanwhile I miss the more obvious entries near the edges. Avoiding these bad entries and focusing on the better ones should give me a positive expectancy.

This was the 3rd and best week until now. The first week I struggled because of the journaling which influenced my trading heavily. Total loss of -64.5 pts. The second week was only half the loss, -33 pts. The last week ended with a loss of -12.25 despite troubles with NinjaTrader. Took me a lot of work to reorganize my charts to prevent performance issues.

I still feel the pressure to perform well because of the journaling en public. This also leads to overtrading. It is all about mindset.

To the question from Jack Schwager what a losing trader can do to transform himself into a winning trader Garry Bielfeldt answered: “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do”.

I am going to enjoy the weekend now because that's also an important aspect of trading. Not only working although I like it very much and could go on and on.

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 Mich62 
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200622 09:00 ET Market prep.

Last Friday price broke through Thursday's high where supply came in to close (at 3060.50) near the low of the day (at 3057.50) just below the 60m range (at 3064.50).

ETH session opened gap down. During the Asia & EU session prices turned back up into Friday's range and value (to YVPOC at 3091.75). ONH is at 3096.75 which was the start of Friday's last half hour sell-off. Market retraced some 60% of Friday's swing high to low. Looks like ES is going to open inside yesterday's range and value. Price is hovering around Thursday's RTH Low (3080.75).

Yesterday's levels: YH 3144.75 (eth) / 3144.00 (rth) YL 3057.50 (rth) / 3056.75 (eth) YC 3060.50 YVPOC 3091.75 YVAH 3115.50 YVAL 3057.50.
Overnight levels: ONH 3096.75 ONL 3027.25.

Scenarios:
1. Continuation of the 60m downtrend. Sell toward lower levels: YC (gap play), ONL.
2. Back up to 60m high range. Buy towards higher levels: ONH, YH
3. Consolidation: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

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 Mich62 
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200622 US AM session trading recap.

Trade 1: Long 1m flag PB (10s ledge BOPB). Out at session high (2.00).
Trade 2: Long 3m PB. Out at YVPOC (and prior swing high / pin bar) (2.25).

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 Mich62 
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200622 US PM & RTH session trading recap.

No more trades after lunch.

Total for the day: 4.25 pts (2x W, 0x L)

Today was a good, quiet and relaxed day. I won't look at all the trades I missed or didn't take and I won't muse about all the points I could have made if only (greed). I've tried to take as little risk as possible, meaning less trading and only taking those trades where I could use a tight stop and be out with a quick win. My focus is on small consistent winners and not to go for the jugular. I hope I may be able to catch a major swing and have a windfall profit once in a while.

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 Mich62 
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200623 07:45 ET Market prep.

Yesterday was a trend day up and the market (ES) closed at the high. We are approaching a daily high (from Friday) at 3144.75 where supply came in on June 11th, June 16th, June 17th and June 19th (3144.75 - 3156.25). If we can break this level the next level is 3182.50 and 3220.75.

During the Asia session price printed the ONL at 3079.75, bounced off and went sideways. During EU session trended up and printed ONH at 3139.00. Looks like ES is going to open above yesterday's range and value which is bullish. At the moment of writing price is just below ONH and Friday's high (3144.75).

Yesterday's levels: YH 3113.75 / YL 3027.25 (eth) / 3066.25 (rth) YC 3113.25 YVPOC 3102.50 YVAH 3109.50 YVAL 3089.00.
Overnight levels: ONH 3139.00 ONL 3079.25.

09:45 ET PMI
10:00 ET New Home Sales

Scenarios:
1. Trend continuation. Price breaks through resistance (3144.75 - 3156.25): Buy on BOPBs, PBs and downside BOFs towards higher levels 3182.50 and 3220.75.
2. Supply comes in at resistance level (3144.75). Sell BOF, PBs towards lower levels: YH, YC (gap fill), YVAH, YVPOC, ONL, YVAL, YL.
3. Consolidation: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

Edit:
09:15 ONH at 3145.75 (upthrusted Friday's high 3144.75)

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 Mich62 
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200623 US RTH session trading recap

What a difference compared to yesterday. Some days I just don't get it right. I am not in rhythm with the market. I know it's not going all right and so I will try harder to make up for the losses. I just can't stop and think I am able to come back. Sometimes I do, but most of the time this leads to bad entries and ultimately overtrading. So also today.

Total trades for today: 34 trades for a total loss of -12.75 pts.
- 12 winners for +25.75 pts. That is +2.15 pt per trade.
- 22 losers for -38.5 pts. That is -1.75 pt per trade.

So the average winner is bigger than the average loser but there are just way too many losers due to bad timing and just too much "trying" instead of concentrating on only the best entries.

In addition to that, fact is I gave up quite some profits (16.5) in an attempt to let the trade run (to target). Some ended as a loser, some as a small winner.

I need to find a way to eliminate those bad timed entries.

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 Mich62 
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200624 09:00 ET: ES Market prep.

Yesterday price bounced off the high of the range (3144.75) forming a double top. In the afternoon the ES sold off to close above Monday's close and high. Price closed within the range (3064.50 - 3144.75) for the fifth day on a row. Price is now hovering near mid-range.

During the Asia session price went sideways. During the EU session the market sold off to 3081 (ONL). Looks like ES is going to open inside yesterday's range, below value. At the moment of writing price is at 3104.50 (vwap).

Yesterday's levels: YH 3145.75 / YL 3060.00 (eth), 3115.50 (rth) / YC 3117.50 YVPOC 3132.75 YVAH 3139.00 YVAL 3125.75.
Overnight levels: ONH 3128.50 ONL 3081.00.

Scenarios:
1. On weakness sell towards low range and levels: ONL, YL, Low of range (3064.50), Monday low (3027.25).
2. On strength buy towards higher levels: YL, VAL, YC (gap fill), ONH, YVPOC, YVAH, YH.
3. Consolidation: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

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 Mich62 
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Yesterday I concluded that I need to find a way to eliminate overtrading (bad timed entries).

Today I did some thinking and I came up with four possible solutions:
1. setting a limit on the number of daily trades.
2. setting a limit on the daily loss.
3. trading a higher time frame.
4. using strict(er) entry rules.

To be continued.

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 Mich62 
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200624 US RTH session trading recap

Trade 1: Long first 10s HL after strong move down to ONL for MR scalp (to high range and 1m ema20) (2 pts).
Trade 2: Long 3m PB for high range. Too early, trapped (-2.75 pts).
Trade 3: Short 3m BOF for low range (-2.00 pts).
Trade 4: Re-entry short. No follow through (-1.50 pts).
Trade 5: Long 3m PB for high range (5.25 pts).

Total for the day: 1 pt.

Scenario 1 played out (exactly).
Trade 1 was counter-trend. Plan was to sell on weakness towards the lower levels. I forsake my plan.
Trades 2 t/m 5 were taken after scenario 1 already played out and the market was ranging. All 4 trades were taken in the middle of the range (near VPOC) while the plan said to sell the high and buy the low when consolidating.

I normally don't have so much troubles to follow the rules (I would probably been in jail if I had). Why is it so difficult to just follow my own trading rules?

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 Mich62 
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200625 US AM session trading recap.

Trade 1: Short PB for test ONL. No follow through (-1.00).
Trade 2: Long BOPB for YVPOC, YC, ONH. Too early (-1.50).
Trade 3: Re-entry long on PB. Closed at HOD (+4.50).

Total: +2.0 pts

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 Mich62 
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Playing the higher time frame

Today I played a little bit with a higher time frame (60m) trade in the EURGBP (in sim).

I planned to trade a BOPB from a range after forming a H&S (Chart 1). This was the higher picture. I watched the 5m chart for timing my entries. First lot was placed early as a feeler. Then I put on the second lot short. I realized it could also play out as a BOF (scenario 2). The buying was strong and there was not a good short signal (Chart 2). As it turned out price came back up strong into the range. I reversed my position and closed out near the high (Chart 3). I am considering to do more of these trades. We'll see.

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 Mich62 
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200625 US PM session trading recap.

No more trades after lunch so I ended the day with 2 points.

I kept out of the range and didn't trade the breakout of consolidation (yet, see next post).

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 Mich62 
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Think this is an interesting 60m chart from the NQ.

At point three I can draw a trend line. Copy & Paste to point two would give me a trend channel with point four as a potential target for a trade. I cannot believe this is pure coincidence. Scalping a couple of points per day is hard work and not easy. Just imagine you catch a part of this trend with only one trade. This is difficult in the futures because of the risk (you will need a wider stop as compared to on a lower time frame). But with the micros it should be possible and it would give a great risk to reward (with lower costs).

Today NQ broke out of consolidation (accumulation) after printing a spring. We are still between the last swing low to high (4) in an uptrend. I would think the range will be support so I will try to find an entry (on the 5m chart) on a pullback to test the breakout (BOPB) for a test of the high (4) as target. If the BOPB fails I could look for an entry to go short (also on a BOPB) with lower channel line as target. May be it will happen overnight and I will miss the entry. We'll see.

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 Mich62 
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200626 EU & US session trading recap.

Traded the MNQ today because of a possible opportunity for a larger target based on higher time frame (1H) analyses, see last post #58.

Trade 1: Short 1m BOPB for a test of yesterday's breakout (-2.50 pts).
Trade 2: Re-entry short. Closed too early (3.00 pts). Target was hit (approx 30 pts).
Trade 3: Long 60m BOPB for a test of Asian high and possibly higher (-1.00).
Trade 4: Re-entry long (-1.25 pts). Should wait for bull flag (continuation)) to finish.
Trade 5: Re-entry long PB / Flag. Closed at prior swing high (9.00 pts).
Trade 6: Re-entry long PB / Flag. Little early entry. Took some heat (MAE=6). Closed too early (no follow through) (9.00 pts). Should let winners run to target (1H level/Asian high, +20/40 pts).
Trade 7 (only trade during US RTH): Short CPB / bear flag for range low. Closed too early (7.25 pts). Should let winners run to target (1H level low range +70 pts).

Total for the day is 23.50 pts. This could have been way more if I'd just let the winners run to target.

Trading from higher time frame levels feels good and I think setting (higher time frame) target levels maybe can help me to stay longer in a trade while taking minimal risk with entries on the 5m or 1m. It's something I am going to explore a little more. Also, I am considering to look at some more markets on a higher time frame (for good risk /reward opportunities).

I am not certain I should continue to use the 310 Oscillator and Keltner channel indicator which I use for trend & momentum. I think I will keep it aside so I can give it a quick glance but will try to go completely naked (pure price action).

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 Mich62 
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Essays on trading

I am not an author or a journalist but I like to write down my feelings and thinking with respect to my trading method and development. It helps to organize my thoughts and allows me to monitor my growth by being able to look back on things. And that's exactly the goal of maintaining this diary. So I am planning to write short concise reflective pieces on different aspects of my trading method. This can be technical or psychological. By writing it down I think it helps to see if things make sense and by sharing people can give constructive feedback or discuss things.

There will be no fixed schedule with respect to subject or publication date. All I write is my own opinion and will be limited to my own trading method (based on my knowledge and experience).

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 Mich62 
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Reflections of a price action trader 1: Stop placement.

I like my stops to be tight (small risk) but logical. I know I should give the market some room but buying sugar contracts, like Jim Rogers, and then hold on (for months or years) for a possible bull market is not my cup of tea. Same for longer term trend trading. I simply don't have the budget for it. I need to build up a stake and maybe then I will invest in stocks or futures.

Linda Raschke wrote: "The number one determining factor for which time frame to trade on should be the amount a trader can afford to risk". For that reason I chose the 1m chart (and sometimes lower in cases of high volatility).

Stop placement has all to do with your entry. When trading the 1m chart your entry is often too early or against the higher time frame trend. That's why it's important to look at higher time frames. "Trend analysis on multiple time frames is used to improve risk/reward ratios as well as determining leverage. If there is an established trend on multiple time frames leverage should be used. If two time frames are in opposing trends, the market is in a consolidation period and lower leverage should be used. Concentrate on the particular time frame you choose to trade on, but look at higher time frames to determine if a small or large target should be played for as well." - Linda Raschke

For that reason I used to look at the 3m, 15m, 30m and 1H chart as this is normally the accepted way to go for an intraday trader. But I found it to be too much. I want my method as plain and simple as possible. So recently I decided to look at the 1H chart for direction & levels and the 1m (and/or 5m) for entries.

Although you should give your trade some room you want to enter as close to the danger point as possible so you will know right away if you're wrong or right. I like to think of it as buying a cheap lottery ticket with a high probability of a good profit (and no, I am not a gambler).

Wyckoff thought stops should be placed at obvious danger points. In other words, look for key support or resistance levels that, when broken, would change the initial assessment. He wrote "There are critical points which occur in each swing, just as in the life of a business or individual. At these junctures it seems as though a feather’s weight on either side would determine the immediate trend. Anyone who can spot these points has much to win and little to lose". I like that.

So the entry is most important in determining where to place a stop. Danger points are key support and resistance levels. A breakout failure (in Wyckoff terms a Spring or an Upthrust) near these levels can provide a good opportunity with a tight stop.

Yesterday, Friday 26th, the 1H chart of the NQ showed rejection of higher prices (with a double top) and a trend down. Looking on the 1m for with-trend entries with a tight stop we watch for breakout failures (BOF) to the upside (upthrust), a breakout pullback (BOPB) or breakout of a pattern like a bear flag or wedge. These patterns are a kind of consolidation pattern and will show a high volume node (HVN) on the volume profile which acts as resistance and will give us a good idea where to enter and where to place a stop.

We don't take the 1st leg PB short on the 1m because we should wait for some kind of consolidation (and possibly some confirmation). The market goes from trend (high volatility) to consolidation (low volatility) to trend. A clear consolidation is a must. Often the range of the candle in relation to the volume shows who is in charge, the bulls (demand) or the bears (supply).

As you can see on the chart there are quite some good opportunities to take a small risk entry. Short on an upside BOF is selling high and buying lower. As you can see also although my entry was spot on (I waited for a no demand test of the small range high) my exit was way too early. I excited on the swing low where buying emerged (see volume), good for a scalp but a bigger profit is tempting and may be necessary to compensate for the bad days. Taking profits too early is one of my weak spots (my demons) I have to work on. But that's for later. Enjoy your weekend.

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 Mich62 
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200627 Week in review

I was a little surprised to see I ended the week with a small profit of 18.25 pts (-5.25 pts in the micro-ES & 23.5 pts in the micro-NQ). This is the first profitable week after I started journaling begin this month. I had a bad day on Tuesday (-$63.75) and thought this would lead to a negative balance for the week but the other four days ended positive ($22.50 + $5 + $10 + $47).

Last week (post #46) I wrote the losses per week were getting smaller and that I hoped for this trend to continue. So far so good. First week: -$322.50, second week: -$165.00, third week: -$61.25 and last week: +$20.75 for a total loss of -$528 for this month (I don't dare to look at the costs).

I like to point out that it's not so much about the total loss for the month as it is about making progress. One step at a time.

Still two more days to go for this month. Then I will be three days off. For next week I will do like always, I will work on my demons and try to do a little better each and every day.

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 Mich62 
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200629 US AM session trading recap.

Traded the MNQ

Trade 1: Long 1m PB at 1H level on strong momentum (bullish engulfing). Closed too early. Next 1H level should be minimum target for a total of 20 pts (2.75 pts).

Trade 2: Long 1-leg PB (1m) after wide 1m bull bar. Entry is too early (just 1-leg), closed on the 2nd-leg of the PB (-10.00 pts). I could have used a wider stop (below swing low) but I am not comfortable with that because the market can go al the way down to the low or stop me out on a spring and rally back up. I much prefer to close and then re-enter.

Trade 3: Re-entry long after the 2nd leg of the PB had formed with a HL and buying tail. Not yet in an uptrend on the 5m. Therefore closed near the high but still too early. Market reached the daily level for what would have been an extra 25 pts (13.75 pts).

Trade 4: Long PB (1m). Entry is early, just 1-leg. Better wait for a 2nd-leg. Scalped for 7.25 pts.

Trade 5: Re-entry long 2-leg PB (ABC, 1-leg PB to daily level on the 5m). Failed breakdown with buying tail (at daily level). Could be a test of the prior breakdown IB (white line) so closed early. Market reached the high (an 1H level) for what would have been an extra 30 pts. (5.00 pts)

Total +18.75 pts.

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 Mich62 
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200629 US PM session trading recap.

Placed no more trades in the afternoon, only one in sim (+16 pts).

To win is one thing, to keep it is something else.

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 Mich62 
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Open range breakout failure (BOF) in the DAX.

Closed at the first trouble area for a quick 20 pts. Always nice to start the day with.

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 Mich62 
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200630 US AM session trading recap.

Traded the MNQ

Trade 1: Long PB for the RTH high. Didn't wait for a second leg PB because of strong momentum. Also the 5m just started to move and wasn't in pullback mode yet (+7.00 pts). Should try to hold on for a higher time frame level (1H at 10033.00).

Missed the next PB with H2 long.

Trade 2: Long CPB (-0.75 pts). Too early, in a range & near the high.

Trade 3: Re-entry long (-7.25 pts). Too early, in a range & near the high.

Trade 4: Re-entry long. Closed at high (8.00 pts).

Trade 5: Short on impulse move down for a (counter-trend) pullback (distribution at 1H possible resistance level?).
Trade 6: Scale-in short for at least another leg down. Stopped at the high (-21.75 & -19.50). Sometimes I will give the trade some more room. Often regret it. Especially when trading against the trend.

Trade 7: Long BO (accumulation) for a move to next 1H level (10120.00). Long near high resistance.

Trade 8: Scale-in long. Didn't wait for a pullback and went long at the high so I had to sit through the pullback and took some heat (+16.75 & +18.25). Closed because possible pullback to test the breakout.

200630 US PM session trading recap.

Trade 9: Long low ascending triangle (HLs) for a move to 1H level (10120.00). Too early. Stopped (-5.25 pts).

Trade 10) Re-entry long. Too early (-3.75).

Trade 11) Re-entry long (+17.25).

Trade 12) Scale-in long (+0.75). Closed because of a possible pullback to test the breakout. Came later and I missed it. 1H level was reached at the end of the session.

Total for the day +9.75 pts.

I have three days off now. Don't know when I will be able to post the Monthly evaluation.

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rrpp13579
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For me ...this topic and refered Youtube videos "PATs Trading" were helpful. thanks.

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 Mich62 
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For me ...this topic and refered Youtube videos "PATs Trading" were helpful. thanks.

@rrpp13579 There are no referred YouTube videos in this thread. "Thanks" under right every post. Cheers.

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 Mich62 
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Monthly stats for June 2020

Total result for June trading MES: -$575 (period 6/1 - 6/25)
Total result for June trading MNQ: +$104.00 (period 6/26 - 6/31, only three days)

Total result for June is -$471.00 (before commissions).

The three biggest losing days occurred in the first week of journaling. The second week had 3 losing days (smaller than in week 1) & 2 winning. The third week had 2 losing days & 3 winning (1 small). The fourth week had 1 losing day & 4 winning. Last 2 days of the month were winning days.

During the month the losses were getting smaller and I managed to turn positive (albeit small).

Two things contributed to this:
1) I went from trading 2 lots to trading 1 lot. When trading continues to go well the next days/weeks I will go back to trading 2 lots and more.
2) At the end of the month I switched to the MNQ. The results are better than in MES and look quite promising. Therefore I will continue to trade the MNQ for the time being.

When looking at the 1H chart I noticed a lot of trades in congestion areas. Therefore I think I would do good to take less trades and try to hold on for a bigger swing target. I am still not sure to go for this path or choose for more kind of a scalping approach. Fact is I closed many trades way too early and therefore my goal for next month will be to try to hold on to my winners a little longer if the situation lends itself to it (and risk some unrealized profits).

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 Mich62 
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200711 Week in review

Yesterday ended the sixth week since I started my journal. I am trying to find a balance in posting, trading, analyzing, educating (personal development) and leisure time. Not posting every day takes a little pressure off. I think for the time being I will limit my journaling to weekly instead of daily. See how it goes.

Still trading one lot (MNQ) which is sub-optimal. When I have time I would like to write more on this important subject.

Earlier on I wrote the losses per week were getting smaller. The fourth week was the first week to end up positive. I also wrote that I hoped for this trend to continue. So far so good. Week one was -$322.50, week two: -$165.00, week three: -$61.25, week four: +$20.75 and week five: +$64.50.

Last week resulted in a $81.25 profit (over four days trading). Now this may seem to be not that much but my intention is to become consistent profitable in the micro (MNQ) and then take it to the mini (NQ). When doing the exact same thing in the NQ the gains are a tenfold (as of course are the losses).

The largest loss was the lowest in six weeks (since the start of the journal) namely -$13.50. The largest win was +$40.50, slightly higher as the week before. Percentage win was 50% (see Weekly Trade Performance). Last 10 days ended positive.

As I wrote before I would like to point out that it's not so much about the total profit/loss as it is about making progress. One step at a time.

For next week I will continue working on limiting losses and letting winners run. At some point in time I will reach a limit and I will need to scale up in contracts to be able to grow profit. Further more and most important is preventing a tilt day. Even when it comes, I will learn a lesson and will start all over again. This is also a subject I promised I would delve into deeper. If I only had more time. Take care.

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 Mich62 
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Interim evaluation of my journaling

From time to time I will not only evaluate my trading(process) but also evaluate my journaling to see if it still meets my objectives. I will then decide if I will continue in the same way, in a slightly different way, or whether I will stop journaling.

In my first post I wrote the objectives for starting a journal here on FIO.

The objectives were:
1. to receive feed back.
2. to see if I will make better entries & exits (with less over-trading) now going on record.
3. to test and see if I have an edge (with a positive trading expectancy).
4. to identify areas for improvement (be it technical or psychological).
5. to see if a low(er) leveraged instrument like the Micro-ES can provide for an (extra) income.
6. to hopefully present something which you, the reader, can add to your methodology and thereby contribute to the community.
7. to learn from the experience of journaling in public.

The single most important objective is to develop a positive expectancy, point three in above list. The points one, two, four, five and seven relate to this as well. So from now on I will mainly concentrate on developing a positive expectancy over a certain period of time.

Ad 2.) It really did not make any difference. Matter of fact is that posting my journal in public had a negative impact on my trading in the first week and I am still having difficulties from time to time. I think journaling magnifies the problem.

Ad 3.) Not there yet but the performance is in an uptrend. All I can do is work hard on my issues and try to do better each and every day.

Ad 4.) I've made some small adjustments already along the way:
- scaled down from 2 lots to 1 lot trading to minimize losses.
- switched from MES to MNQ because of personal preference for the price movement.
- involved the 1H higher time frame (for entry & exit levels).
- added more instruments (on 1H time frame) for swing trading.

These are all more or less technical.

On the psychological front I need to find a way to overcome tilt (revenge trading) and let winners run longer.

Ad 5.) We will see. Of course one can always scale up to the mini contract. I think the micros are a great, and relative cheap way, to develop consistency.

Ad 7.) I experienced the first month of journaling as very intense but feel I've made some progress already because of this. Ingrained habits keep coming back and I still need to work on it.

I think journaling magnifies the obstacles you need to overcome. If I am going to overtrade more because of the posting it only seems logical to think about quitting to post in public. But that would not be the solution to the underlying problem which, I think, is a need to prove something, having difficulties with losing (being wrong/wanting to be right) or wanting to force things my way.

A journal is very confronting. It forces one to face reality which is sometimes hard to accept (by the ego). There's no escape, you have to face yourself if you ever want to become successful. That's why for now I will continue my journal.

Recap:
- Focus on developing a positive expectancy over a certain period of time (consistent).
- Continue journaling once a week (with maybe extra posts throughout the week depending on time schedule).

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redleo90
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Hello,

first post

I enjoy your journal and the struggles you go through. Currently reading them & drinking coffee.

I did want to ask, you use NT right?

How did you add the Support and Resistance levels on your charts? Is this an add-on in NT or something you do yourself?

Thanks!

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 Mich62 
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Hello,

first post

I enjoy your journal and the struggles you go through. Currently reading them & drinking coffee.

I did want to ask, you use NT right?

How did you add the Support and Resistance levels on your charts? Is this an add-on in NT or something you do yourself?

Thanks!

Hi @redleo90 and welcome to the forum!

It's nice you enjoy my journal but that you enjoy my struggles is a kind of masochistic (LOL).

Yes, I use NT8 and the levels I used in the beginning were:

- High, Low and Close of the previous day (ETH+RTH).
- Overnight High and Low.
- Open, High and Low of the trading day (RTH).
- Major Swing Levels.
- Range Highs & Lows.
- Volume Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low of the previous day (RTH).
- Initial Balance, Volume Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low of the trading day (RTH).

See screenshots attached.

Now I try to pay more attention to the pure price action and I only draw S/R levels by hand on weekly (red), daily (orange) and 1H (green) charts.

Hope it helps. Enjoy your coffee (and my struggles) and take care.

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redleo90
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Mich62 View Post
Hi @redleo90 and welcome to the forum!

It's nice you enjoy my journal but that you enjoy my struggles is a kind of masochistic (LOL).

Yes, I use NT8 and the levels I used in the beginning were:

- High, Low and Close of the previous day (ETH+RTH).
- Overnight High and Low.
- Open, High and Low of the trading day (RTH).
- Major Swing Levels.
- Range Highs & Lows.
- Volume Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low of the previous day (RTH).
- Initial Balance, Volume Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low of the trading day (RTH).

See screenshots attached.

Now I try to pay more attention to the pure price action and I only draw S/R levels by hand on weekly (red), daily (orange) and 1H (green) charts.

Hope it helps. Enjoy your coffee (and my struggles) and take care.


haha I didnt quite mean it like that, but I see how that came across.

Should of said: I enjoy learning from your struggles

Thank you for the info on the S/R levels on the charts. I want to try that on mine.

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 Mich62 
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redleo90 View Post
haha I didnt quite mean it like that, but I see how that came across.

Should of said: I enjoy learning from your struggles

Thank you for the info on the S/R levels on the charts. I want to try that on mine.

Happy to see that at least one person is learning something

You can use 'NT Order Flow Volume Profile' for Volume Profile with VAH, VAL and VPOC. However, it will not show yesterday's values.

Just let me know if you have any question.

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 Mich62 
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Scalping

I think yesterday was an interesting day. For that reason I decided to document it in my journal. This way I will be able to look back on it and monitor the way my development is progressing in chronicle order.

I did not trade last Friday because of NT problems and a scheduled support call with NT. I think I did good not to trade while having problems and not to risk losing my profit of the week going into the weekend with a bad feeling. Staying positive is important.

In the weekend I had some family affairs which took time and maybe negatively impacted me although I did not feel it that way.

Yesterday I booked three losers in the MNQ during the EU session for a total loss of -12.50 pts. Although I recently switched from MES to MNQ I yesterday started the US RTH session trading the MES because of the earlier losers in the MNQ (during the EU session) and mostly because of the volatility in MNQ in the beginning of the session with 10 to 15 pts wide bars on the 1m chart.

I booked three unnecessary losers in the MES for a total loss of -8.50 pts. Unnecessary because I didn't wait for the market to show direction and so was too early with my entries. Also, the second trade had a MFE of 4.25 pts but I didn't take it because I am trying to catch the bigger swings. You know, let your winners run.

Then I switched back to the MNQ which was still a little too volatile for me. I remember the first two weeks of March were very volatile and therefore back then I switched to the 10s chart which resulted in the best two weeks I've ever had. So I decided to switch to the 10s chart and just scalp. The result was a profit of +29.25 pts. The total for the day was +16.75 in the MNQ and -8.50 in the MES so I ended the day with a small $ loss. It feels like victory. I did not revenge trade, just took my scalp entries. Of course it could be I was just lucky. But the numbers so far show that the results in MNQ are very promising (although I have a preference for the MES because of the volume and because of the experience I've built in trading ES).

I still have not yet decided to choose between just scalping or swing trading. I've red a lot about taking bigger swings with risk-to-reward of 1:3. So I wonder if scalping is a legitimate method. I touched upon the thread " To scalp or not to scalp". Some things described in Post #8 and Post #9 resonate with me. It seems I have trouble accepting scalping as a legitimate way of trading because of what is generally accepted as the thing to do namely aiming for the bigger swings.

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 Mich62 
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Timing an entry

It took the MNQ almost 1.5 hours before it broke out of the 3rd 5m wide range bar after it was unable to test the high (forming a triangle consolidation pattern on the 5m). Such a sideways opening (flat 5m ema20) should not be traded as if it would be a trending market. Breakout failures normally do well in this kind of environment. Also, on a lower time frame there are often plenty of with-trend scalp kind of trades to be found.

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 Mich62 
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Timing an entry 2, US PM session annotated chart

The US PM session had a nice rotation/markup between July 13th low and July 14th high with a kind of distribution a la Wyckoff.

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 Mich62 
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200717 Week in review

Today ends the seventh week after starting journaling. As I wrote earlier, on Monday I traded the MES apart from the MNQ which led to a $ loss that day. Without the MES it would have been a nice positive day so after that I stopped trading the MES and only traded the MNQ. The next four days were positive and the week ended for the 4th week in a row with a higher profit ($115.00) than the week before ($81.25). Still trading one lot with the exception of a couple times when I scaled-in to a trade.

Technically I am not a 100% satisfied with my trading and think there is still a lot of room for improvement. Mostly on timing and further fine-tuning entries & exits. Psychologically I feel pleased. No tilt and no revenge trading yet. Good focus and just following my rules. I really enjoy being alone with my charts, analyzing, concentrating and getting into the flow/zone.

The goal of this whole exercise is to develop a positive expectancy. Last month's expectancy was negative (Avg. trade was -$1.50). For this month expectancy is positive (Avg. trade is $3.51). For next week I will just try to continue and build good habits (and a good process). At some point I will need to scale-up in contracts but don't wanna be impatient. I think it's still too early yet (58 trades this month). Patience and discipline until it becomes a habit. "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." - Will Durant

Now I've finished my weekly review I can go enjoy the nice weather in the weekend. Wish you all a great weekend.

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 Mich62 
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Buddha_Watching



Buddha watching over me (and my charts).

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I'm in the early stages of learning price action and your journal fits nicely into my journey. I enjoy your chart analysis as well as your analysis of your analysis. Your ability to make strategic adjustments/targets (reducing size when losing, changing markets when overly volatile, goals based off of expectancy instead of profit, etc) are the makings of someone that has been or will be in the game for a while. Looking forward to more posts and getting a better grasp of price action along the way.

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200720 (Monday) EU session trading recap.

Took four trades in the EU session and went into the US RTH session with -1.75 pts.

Trade 1: Long near 5m Keltner channel (away from ema20) after selling tail. Bad entry, should wait for a 5m ema20 PB before going long (-3.00 pts)
Trade 2: Short for a mean reversion (MR) trade (to 5m ema20). Stopped, entry was too early (-2.75 pts)
Trade 3: Re-entry short. Also stopped (-2.50 pts)
Trade 4: Re-entry short after failed breakout (trapping longs). I should wait for a clear entry signal like this. Good entry & exit (6.50 pts)

Total -1.75 pts

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200720 (Monday) US session trading recap.

Came in to the US RTH session with a loss of -1.75 pts from the EU session.

Took three trades:

Trade 5: Short 10s CPB for a test of the low. Entry was near 5m Keltner channel with buying on the prior bar so target was the low (test) (9.75 pts)
Trade 6: Long PB. Too far from 5m ema20. Wait for kind of consolidation pattern (5.75 pts)
Trade 7: Re-entry long. See comment trade 6 (2.00 pts)

Total for the day is +15.75 pts.

Not the best trades, still ending the day with a profit.

Next up is Tuesday, a tilt day.

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200721 (Tuesday) EU session trading recap.

Trade 1: Long below 1m & 5m ema20. Bad entry (-5.25 pts)
Trade 2: Short 10s PB. Buying on the 5m. Bad entry (-2.25 pts)
Trade 3: Short MR. Bad entry (+3.25 pts)
Trade 4: Long PB. Stopped (-2.50 pts)
Trade 5: Short above 1m & 5m ema20. Bad entry (-5.25 pts)
Trade 6: First good with-trend entry on a PB. Early exit (+3.75 pts).
Trade 7. Short MR for another leg down. Bad entry (above 5m ema20). Should wait for a PB (-2.25 pts)
Trade 8: Bad scale-in (-0.25 pts)
Trade 9: Long on 5m PB. Bad entry (ranging) and late exit (-3.25 pts))
Trade 10: Short 10s PB. Closed too early. Not a good entry (-2.25 pts)
Trade 11: Re-entry. Closed too early (-0.50 pts)
Trade 12: Good entry on a 5m & 1m PB (to ema20) after failed breakup (supply coming in) trapping longs. These are the setups to wait for! (+9.25 pts)

Only 3 Winners and 9 Losses. Lots of small losses (too much trying) add up. Total for the EU session -7.50 pts.

I had an appointment and went out for lunch. Little did I know that this was just the beginning.

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200721 (Tuesday) US session trading recap.

I was back late from my lunch appointment and missed the first hour after opening. But, I was back and what did I do? I jumped right in.

50 trades and -38.75 pts later I woke up. What happened?

There will be days ending with a loss (and maybe even weeks). One wants to forget the bad days as quickly as possible but these days really are an opportunity to learn and make progress. So from this point of view this day was very welcome (The Obstacle is the Way).

I did a lot of trades, 62 in total, but in my defense I can say I like to close losers very quick and then eventually re-enter. So sometimes I need 2-3 entries before catching a move. At one point the loss was -83.50 pts. I kept going (I am not a big fan of stopping at a predefined level) and at the end it was -38.75 pts.

I did not make exorbitant great losses and kept it limited to a max loss of 10 pts. The biggest loss was -10.75 pts. The biggest win was +30.75 pts. The lesson learned here is that a lot of "trying" leading to a lot of small losers add up so I need to be more selective.

Total loss for the day (EU & US session) is -46.25 pts (-$92.50).

The biggest win day till now was +23.50 pts ($47,00). It's not good practice to let a losing day become twice as much as the biggest win day. It is what it is. How you handle it is what's important.

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200722 (Wednesday) EU session trading recap.

A new day to be thankful for. Not thinking anymore about yesterday. One of the big advantages of day trading, every day is a new start. We just go on and try to do a little better than yesterday (which in this case won't be that difficult haha).

Had a buy-stp as well as a buy-lmt order in to go long on a PB. Both were triggered. It was lunchtime and I chickened out. Of course the market rallied (3.75 pts).

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200722 (Wednesday) US session trading recap.

Trade 3: Long PB. Closed at Keltner channel and prior (ETH) swing high (+14.25 pts)
Trade 4: Short PB. Closed too early (-0.25 pts)
Trade 5: Short 5m PB (-2.75 pts)
Trade 6: Re-entry short (+4.50 pts)
Trade 7: Long PB. Trapped (-4.75 pts)
Trade 8: Short MR after failed breakout / trap (+7.75 pts)
Trade 9: Short BOPB. Closed early at swing low bc we were above 5m ema20 (+2.75 pts)
Trade 10: Long 5m PB. Closed at range high (10s) (+4.00 pts)

Total for the day +29.25 pts

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200723 (Thursday) US AM session trading recap.

Trade 1: Short 5m ema20 PB. Too early (above 10s ema20). Wait for a breakdown pullback (-3.00 pts)
Trade 2: Re-entry short. Also too early, not a good entry in a range and into prior support (+7.25 pts)
Trade 3: Short 5m ema20 & 10s ema20 PB. This is the right entry to wait for. Closed too early near swing low (2.50 pts)
Trade 4: Short CPB. Closed, no follow through (3.25 pts)
Trade 5: Long BOF. Low probability bc counter-trend (5m) (-9.25 pts)
Trade 6: Short PB & failed BOF but late near Keltner channel. Impulse entry after wide bear bar. Not a good entry. Closed on buying at swing low (double bottom) (4.75 pts)
Trade 7: Long after unable to follow through to the downside. Wide stop below swing/range low. Took some heat.
Trade 8: Scale-in after test of low. Closed after sideways sideways action / no follow through. This often ends good but when not a big loss is inevitable. Better stay out of these consolidations bc they are difficult to trade. Better wait for direction and try to find a with-trend entry on a lower time frame (+3.25 +7.25 pts)

Total AM session +16.25 pts

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200723 (Thursday) US PM session trading recap.

Just one trade after lunch.

Trade 9: Long PB after bounce off of support. Entry is too early but I was afraid I would miss the move. Took some heat (again) but was pretty sure (that's dangerous) there was going to be at least a 2nd leg higher (+10.00 pts)

Total for the day +26.25 pts.

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200724 (Friday) US session trading recap.

Trade 1: Long 5m PB. Entry was rather late. I felt I was on the right side (long) and we would see another move up. So I decided not to close the trade on the pullback to 5m ema20 but to sit it out and try to manage it.
Trade 2: Scale-in
Trade 3: Scale-in
Trade 4: Scale-in

Seeing the 5m wide bear bar closing below the 5m ema20 I wasn't so sure anymore we would see a new high. Now 4 contracts long I didn't want to take on more risk so closed the trade (-29.25 +20.50 +9.50 +5.00 = +5.75 pts). I don't think this is something I would like to repeat. Next time I better close and re-enter, something I normally do. Trade 1 had to be closed earlier on. Trade 2 and 4 were good entries like the BOF entry that came later.

Trade 5: Long 5m PB. Stopped (-10.50 pts)
Trade 6: Re-entry long
Trade 7: Scale-in. Closed 1x near Keltner channel and scratch the last one which was stupid bc I was with-trend and the PB was shallow against strong buying. The right thing to do was to place the stop below the swing low. I missed the rally (+11.50 & -0.75 pts)
Trade 8: Short MR after failed breakout triangle (-0.75 pts)
Trade 9: Re-entry short. Closed at swing low (+5.00 pts)

To be continued in next post.

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200724 (Friday) US session trading recap.

Continuation of prior post.

Trade 10: Short 5m PB (+3.50 pts)
Trade 11: Short CPB. Closed too early (+3.00 pts)

Total for the day +16.75 pts

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200724 Week in review

Today ends the eight week after starting journaling. It was quite a restless week where I had to trade a couple of days after an appointment (on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) and I missed the first hour trading and could not prepare well. Just like the weeks before I did not do optimal but ended positive. When looking back on my trades I am still not very satisfied with my entries and exits. A little weird that I think my entries & exits are not good, or at least they should be a lot better, but still end up making profit. That's why I like to think there is a lot of room for improvement.

Despite the tilt day on Tuesday I ended the week with a profit of +41.75 pts ($83.50). Lower than previous week but still the fifth week in a row to end profitable. Expectancy is still positive. This month so far only two days ended with a loss (of which one major) and thirteen days ended with a profit.

For next week I intend to improve my entries & exits and just follow my rules.

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200727 EU session trading recap.

Trade 1: Long for test high. No immediate follow through (2 bars sideways) and possible resistance above. In hindsight closed too early (0.50 pts)

Trade 2: Long BO. Entry is too early (away from ema20 and near Keltner-channel) and due for a PB. Closed on impulse up to 1H level (green line). Better wait for a PB long (3.50 pts)

Total 4.00 pts

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200727 US AM session trading recap

Trade 3: Long PB (7.75 pts)

Trade 4: Long 5m PB to ONH (6.00 pts)

Trade 5: Long 5m PB (2-leg PB, Al Brooks H2) (4.25 pts)

Total 18 pts.

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200727 US PM session trading recap

Trade 6: Long 5m PB (Al Brooks H1). Trailing stop hit. Profit could have been more with a sell-lmt target order but trailed my stop for a possible bigger swing to next one hour level so gave up some profits (2.50 pts)

Trade 7: Long 5m PB (Al Brooks H2, 2-leg PB). Took profit near IBH and Keltner-channel. Market rallies 33.25 pts straight to the one hour level. I should have used a trailing stop here because this 5m H2 PB continuation had a much better chance (compared to trade 6) to reach the 1H level because price pulled back to 5m ema20 and this was also a BOF (clearly to see on the 1m) which trapped early shorts with buy stops above swing highs fueling the move up (6.00 pts).

Total for the day +30.50 pts ($61). (7 Winners / 0 Losers. Max MAE was 2.50 pts)

$61 may seem not a lot but one needs only $50 for margin to trade one lot MNQ. That's an 122% ROI. Or on a $1000 account it's still 6.1% in one day. This $61 also allows me to trade one extra lot from now on if I want it to. Like small losers add up to a considerable amount this is also the case with small winners.

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 Mich62 
Netherlands
 
Experience: Advanced
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200728 US AM session trading recap.

Trade 1: Long 10s CPB for MR to 5m ema20 (-6.50 pts)
Trade 2: Re-entry (8.25 pts)
Trade 3: Long 10s PB for MR. Closed bc 4:00 pm eco news (4.75 pts)
Trade 4: Short 5m PB taken on 10s chart (5.25 pts)
Trade 5: Long CPB (and BO 5m triangle) (-0.25 pts)
Trade 6: Idem trade 5, long PB. Almost same situation as trade 5 (-3.00 pts)
Trade 7: Long CPB, just kept trying to find a long entry for a test of IBH (0 pts)
Trade 8: Long BOPB for a test of IBH (5.00 pts)

Total +13.50 pts.

Market is in a range, lot of BOs fail, lows get bought and highs sold. Fickle market! Not easy to trade, close my trades very quickly (win or lose). In this kind of market one can lose a lot of money and at the end the market has gone nowhere.

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 Mich62 
Netherlands
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: IB, NinjaTrader Brokerage
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Posts: 311 since May 2012
Thanks: 347 given, 536 received

200728 US PM session trading recap.

Trade 9: Long 10s PB for 5m Mean Reversion (MR). It was possible for the market to pullback to 5m ema20 but we just broke out to the downside on the 1H and there is room below so I closed this counter-trend trade near Keltner-channel and scalped a couple of points to secure a profit in under 30s. If it does pullback to 5m ema20 I really don't care and will look for a with-trend short entry (6.00 pts).

Total for the day +19.50 pts. (5 Winners / 3 Losers / 1 Breakeven)

"Success is the sum of small efforts, repeated day in and day out" - Robert Collier

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 Mich62 
Netherlands
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: IB, NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: Commodities, (crypto)currencies & equities
 
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Posts: 311 since