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Trading takes just seconds or minutes and is fun and exiting. But making a profit is never a guaranty. What is a guaranty is the preparation it takes, the whole weekend, evenings and nights if you want to stand a chance. Years of hard work with few ups but many downs which can bring a person to despair. Success is never guarantied.
Thanks! Your data is accurate whereas my data deviates because I don't have the data for the actual contract at the time and used the actual contract for today 'merged back adjusted'. That's important to know and means all my data in the stats overview will be inaccurate. However, I expect the direction of the moves to be more or less the same.
Here's the same chart for May 3rd 2023 with 'merge back adjusted' (the one I used with high at around 4313.00) and with 'merge non back adjusted' with high at 4167.00. Does the 'non back adjusted' chart resembles your chart @lightsun47?
Lol, I was wondering the exact same. It's a shame there is very little interacting. Hundreds of views the last days, just a couple of thanks and zero reactions besides yours. Don't know what to make of it. Maybe after FOMC? Thanks.
Well, I didn't check your numbers, because I was interested in what price did on a break. Going back to the actual contracts rather than the consolidated would not have changed whether the price action was favorable or not after breaking the levels, although the numbers of the price level would have been different.
I went over every chart, and probably was not alone in doing so, to see what the lesson it had was. They did agree in the main with my general sense of what to do on FOMC, which is to ignore the initial reaction and see what price has done after it has settled into a consistent direction and become less whippy, if it has, after a period of time.
I didn't have an exact timeframe in mind for the waiting period, since I somewhat distrust any price movement on FOMC day. In any case, the initial several bars after the announcement on any timeframe are generally wrong, and I think you should stay away from them unless you are just insanely fast and extremely short-term and think you can beat out the really fast guys. (Which you can't. )
A person could try to bracket the pre-announcement price going in, to go either short or long depending on the first surge, but probably a lot of people are doing that, and I think that getting whipped with that strategy is very likely as a cascade of orders tumble in and hit the various resting orders above and below.
Thanks for running the experiment. A 40 or 45 or 50-60 minute wait period does seem like a good idea based on my experience, and it seems to work out in your charts. That's good information. I don't think I would wait less.
My game plan for Wednesday is simply going to be to stay out of it until the insanity has faded out. This may take all day or until the next day, which is fine with me. When it happens, it happens, and I don't need to be in every possible trade anyway.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Yes, I came to the same conclusion and that's why I decided to leave the charts as they are and not to replace them.
Yes, I agree, not trading around news is probably the best one can do. If one would want to trade around news you better know what you are doing.
That has been exactly my experience. And because price moves very fast and far during a news event it can become very, very expensive. That way it's more a gamble.
Sounds like a good plan to me.
I would like to add another lesson:
You don't become profitable by reading books, magazines, articles, following gurus, watching YouTube or spending time in a Discord room or Telegram channel to see what others are doing. You have to do the work yourself. Spending time to look for opportunities (research), gathering statistics (who likes that?), creating a sound game plan, it all requires a lot of work (in isolation). When finished it will be easier to follow because you will have confidence in your own developed and tested plan/strategy.
The CL bulls had a nice surprise when they woke up this morning seeing CL at a bargain. They didn't have to think twice. Now 10 days at a row with close above the SMA5. Will we see $80? 'Crude Oil Inventories' tomorrow.
CL is in a range. I am waiting.... lurking.... still bullish orientated above $76 but have to be careful. Could easily go to $75 which would be a 50% retracement from the Jan 17th-Jan 29th swing up.
"What's it gonna be boy, yes or no" (Ellen Foley to Meat Loaf in 1977).
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