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Diary of a simple price action trader


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Diary of a simple price action trader

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  #41 (permalink)
Netherlands
 
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200616 US AM session trading recap

No trades so far. I was out and returned around noon. As I wrote earlier I use the ES chart (for the data) together with the MES (to trade). When it gets a little more volatile the ES data is not updated. So the data I look at is not correct. Imagine what will happen when I put a trade on. Surprise, surprise. It happened Friday, yesterday and now again.

I just filed a service request with NinjaTrader. I have to wait for their reaction or maybe change my setup and look and trade only the MES. Or maybe it's an indicator? So, I am afraid not much trading today.

Follow up:

Got response from NinjaTrader. They are always quick to react. Seems some third party indicators I use are taking more time to calculate and therefore the platform will not be able to render the graphics quick enough to display this information. I will have to look into all my chart- & indicator settings and maybe reduce the usage of them.

No trades today. Hope I will be up & running again tomorrow.

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  #42 (permalink)
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200618 Market prep.

Yesterday was an inside day (ES). When we get an inside today (inside June 16th) we will have a 3-bar triangle.

Price went through YL and made the ONL during the Asia session. After making the ONL price turned up to reach RTH YVPOC and RTH YYVPOC and found resistance at YVAH at the end of the EU morning session. From there price turned lower outside YVA and below YL to possibly open gap down outside yesterday's range and value which is bearish. However, price is still in an uptrend on the daily and ranging on the 1h. At the moment of writing price is pulling back to YL.

Yesterday's levels: YH 3130.25 YL 3094.50 YC 3106.50 YVPOC 3115.25 YVAH 3118.75 YVAL 3101.00
Overnight levels: ONH 3120.00 ONL 3064.50

Scenarios:
1. On supply sell PBs and upside BOFs towards 3063.
2. On demand buy PBs, BOPBs and downside BOFs towards YVAL, YC, YVPOC, ONH, YVAH, YH.
3. When ranging: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

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  #43 (permalink)
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EU & US AM session trading recap

Trade 1 (EU): Long 3m BOPB & BOF (YL provided support) for last swing high & EU session high (2.5 pts).
Trade 2: Long 10s PB for YVAL (reached). Closed BE.
Trade 3: Long PB for YVAL (-1.5 pts).
Trade 4: Re-entry long (-2 pts).
Trade 5: Re-entry long (2.75 pts).
Trade 6: Long PB for YC. Closed BE.
Trade 7: Re-entry long (-1.75).
Trade 8: Short VAH for MR (-3.5 pts).
Trade 9: Re-entry short (3.25 pts).
Trade 10: Re-entry short (-3.25 pts).
Trade 11: Re-entry short for -4.5 pts.
Trade 12: Long for YC. Closed BE.
Trade 13: Long after wash-out for swing high, channel high, YC (gap fill) (5.25 pts).
Trade 14: Long PB for HOD & YVPOC (1 pt).
Trade 15: Re-entry long PB (-0.25 pt).
Trade 16: Short for MR (1 pt).
Trade 17: Short 1m PB for MR mid-range scalp (1.75 pts).

Total 0.75 pt. (7x W / 7x L / 3x BE). Winners & losers even out. Going broke because of costs.

Market was up for the first two hours. That would be scenario 2 so I played long (4x W / 4x L / 3x BE). But it was not looking strong (a lot of overlap, SOT) and so I did a couple of short mean reversion trades (3x W / 3x L / none BE). On a higher time frame we are in a range (3063-3156). Volume profile is balanced.

I think I should be more selective with my entries & exits, do less compulsive trading. Could it be I have OCD?

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  #44 (permalink)
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US PM session trading recap

Trade 18: Long BOF at YL / VAL (3m oversold) for MR to VWAP, ema20, VPOC. Closed at 10s range high (3096.25) based possibly resistance. Market reached VWAP, 3m ema20 & VPOC at 3099.75. Closed too early (1.25 pts).

Didn't take the 3m ema20 PB short because we were at VPOC and market was balanced. May go to VAH. And it did! One 3m bar stretching from VAL to VAH (9.25 pts). Remarkable.

Trade 19: Short 3m ema20 PB & BOPB for LOD, ONL. Stopped (-2.50 pts). Entry was legitimate but I was trapped (and so reversed to long).

Trade 20: Long 3m outside reversal at VAL for VPOC. Target reached (3 pts).

Price is back at value. No more trades. Total for the day 2.50 pts.

I traded calm and focused. Tilt because of mental issues was less of a problem today but I think I should try to trade less and be more selective with my entries & exits.

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  #45 (permalink)
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200619 08:30 ET Market prep.

Yesterday ES stayed inside June 16th printing a 3-bar triangle on the daily.

Price went more or less sideways during the Asia session after making the ONL. Price turned up during the EU session and broke YVAH & YH to print the ONH. Price then pulled back to YH, found support, and went up to print a new ONH. Looks like ES is going to open outside value and yesterday's range which is bullish.

Yesterday's levels: YH 3120.00 (eth) / 3109.00 (rth) YL 3080.75 (rth) / 3064.50 (eth) YC 3098.75 YVPOC 3101.25 YVAH 3104.27 YVAL 3094.25.
Overnight levels: ONH 3137.50 ONL 3094.75.

Scenarios:
1. We may test lower levels (overnight inventory almost 100% net long): YH, YVAH, YVPOC & YC (gap play). On weakness sell towards these levels.
2. We may continue the uptrend. On strength buy PBs and downside BOFs towards June 17th and 16th high. An daily 3-bar triangle breakout may lead to ATH but I am not ruling out we are just testing the sell-off from June 11th. Have to see how price behaves.
3. The run may stall and price might be going sideways (it's Friday but also quadruple witching): sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

Remember today is quadruple witching.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

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  #46 (permalink)
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200619 US session trading recap

Trade 1: Short 1m PB (-1.50). Entry was too early. A 1-leg PB on the 1m is often too early! I should wait for at least a 2-leg (ABC) PB on the 1m which is a 1-leg PB on the HTF 3m (to ema20). Or a 3m 2-leg PB which is a 1-leg on the 15m (and a CPB on the 1m).

Trade 2: Re-entry short (2.50). This is a better entry to wait for. A 2-leg PB (on the 1m) with a lower high on the 2nd leg.

Yet a better entry (which I missed) would have been the 2-leg PB on the 3m (CPB on the 1m) which touched ema20 and was a 1-leg PB on the 15m. I should pay more attention to the higher time frame and use the 1m only for better timing and shorter stops.

Trade 3: Short 1m PB (-1.00). Entry was too early. Did not want to take too much risk so closed it (too early) when it went against me.
Trade 4: Re-entry short (1.75).
Trade 5: Long MR (-2.75). Stopped.
Trade 6: Short PB (-2.75). Stopped.
Trade 7: Long MR (-1.75). Stopped.
Trade 8: Short PB (0.25). MFE=2.25. Let it go for a bigger move down but closed it when it came back. I often regret I didn't took the 2 pts. Market pulled back to 3m ema20, 6.25 pts against me. But first it looked like it was still going lower and so I went short again (9).
Trade 9: Re-entry short (-1.25). Bad entry location. Buying in the background and far from 3m ema20.
Trade 10: Short 3m PB (-1.25). Out on small 2nd leg PB.
Trade 11: Long MR / Reversal (-1.75). Trapped going long too early.

The -1.75 loss from trade 11 is not the problem. What is, this was the near perfect short entry (2-legs on the 3m and a 1-bar leg on the 15m) which I missed while going long. After 7 short entries (3 t/m 10 ex 5) to hop on the trend I missed the obvious short entry completely.

Now things are starting to get out of hand. I am trading in the middle of a range with no clear entries (5 t/m 9). While just trying to catch a move losses can add up quickly. Score till now -9.50 pts.

Trade 12: Long MR after spike down to a 1h level (3117) and back to the range. Buying emerged at the low and signs of no supply (10s) (5.00).

Trade 13: Long MR (-2.00).

Trade 14: Short for a test of the low (4.00).

Trade 15: Long MR after testing the low (HL) (3.75).

Trade 16: Long 3m PB for a quick scalp (2.00).

Total for the day 3.25 pts. (9x L / 7x W)

Trades 5 and 6 were the biggest losers for the day (2x -2.75). Unnecessary while trading in the middle of the range. Should try to avoid these low probability entries when price can go either way.

Trade 12 was the biggest win for the day (5.00). I think I made good use of the volatility although against the trend and so limited in potential. I had an 1h level at 3117. When buying these kind of lows you quickly find out if you're right or wrong. I didn't give it much room. The last swing low at 3123 was my target.

Trades 14 & 15 were the next two biggest winners with 4 & 3.75 pts. Basically just scalping within the legs of a PB.

I still think I trade too much and too often in congestion areas. Meanwhile I miss the more obvious entries near the edges. Avoiding these bad entries and focusing on the better ones should give me a positive expectancy.

This was the 3rd and best week until now. The first week I struggled because of the journaling which influenced my trading heavily. Total loss of -64.5 pts. The second week was only half the loss, -33 pts. The last week ended with a loss of -12.25 despite troubles with NinjaTrader. Took me a lot of work to reorganize my charts to prevent performance issues.

I still feel the pressure to perform well because of the journaling en public. This also leads to overtrading. It is all about mindset.

To the question from Jack Schwager what a losing trader can do to transform himself into a winning trader Garry Bielfeldt answered: “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do”.

I am going to enjoy the weekend now because that's also an important aspect of trading. Not only working although I like it very much and could go on and on.

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200622 09:00 ET Market prep.

Last Friday price broke through Thursday's high where supply came in to close (at 3060.50) near the low of the day (at 3057.50) just below the 60m range (at 3064.50).

ETH session opened gap down. During the Asia & EU session prices turned back up into Friday's range and value (to YVPOC at 3091.75). ONH is at 3096.75 which was the start of Friday's last half hour sell-off. Market retraced some 60% of Friday's swing high to low. Looks like ES is going to open inside yesterday's range and value. Price is hovering around Thursday's RTH Low (3080.75).

Yesterday's levels: YH 3144.75 (eth) / 3144.00 (rth) YL 3057.50 (rth) / 3056.75 (eth) YC 3060.50 YVPOC 3091.75 YVAH 3115.50 YVAL 3057.50.
Overnight levels: ONH 3096.75 ONL 3027.25.

Scenarios:
1. Continuation of the 60m downtrend. Sell toward lower levels: YC (gap play), ONL.
2. Back up to 60m high range. Buy towards higher levels: ONH, YH
3. Consolidation: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

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200622 US AM session trading recap.

Trade 1: Long 1m flag PB (10s ledge BOPB). Out at session high (2.00).
Trade 2: Long 3m PB. Out at YVPOC (and prior swing high / pin bar) (2.25).

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200622 US PM & RTH session trading recap.

No more trades after lunch.

Total for the day: 4.25 pts (2x W, 0x L)

Today was a good, quiet and relaxed day. I won't look at all the trades I missed or didn't take and I won't muse about all the points I could have made if only (greed). I've tried to take as little risk as possible, meaning less trading and only taking those trades where I could use a tight stop and be out with a quick win. My focus is on small consistent winners and not to go for the jugular. I hope I may be able to catch a major swing and have a windfall profit once in a while.

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200623 07:45 ET Market prep.

Yesterday was a trend day up and the market (ES) closed at the high. We are approaching a daily high (from Friday) at 3144.75 where supply came in on June 11th, June 16th, June 17th and June 19th (3144.75 - 3156.25). If we can break this level the next level is 3182.50 and 3220.75.

During the Asia session price printed the ONL at 3079.75, bounced off and went sideways. During EU session trended up and printed ONH at 3139.00. Looks like ES is going to open above yesterday's range and value which is bullish. At the moment of writing price is just below ONH and Friday's high (3144.75).

Yesterday's levels: YH 3113.75 / YL 3027.25 (eth) / 3066.25 (rth) YC 3113.25 YVPOC 3102.50 YVAH 3109.50 YVAL 3089.00.
Overnight levels: ONH 3139.00 ONL 3079.25.

09:45 ET PMI
10:00 ET New Home Sales

Scenarios:
1. Trend continuation. Price breaks through resistance (3144.75 - 3156.25): Buy on BOPBs, PBs and downside BOFs towards higher levels 3182.50 and 3220.75.
2. Supply comes in at resistance level (3144.75). Sell BOF, PBs towards lower levels: YH, YC (gap fill), YVAH, YVPOC, ONL, YVAL, YL.
3. Consolidation: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC and/or 3m ema20.

These are just notes for myself! No advice. Don't use it to trade on.

Edit:
09:15 ONH at 3145.75 (upthrusted Friday's high 3144.75)

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