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Diary of a simple price action trader


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Diary of a simple price action trader

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  #31 (permalink)
Langley
 
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Mich62 View Post
200605 US RTH session trading recap

Did I follow my rules? If not, where did I violate them and what should I do (or pay attention to) the next time? If yes, was it profitable? If profitable, is there anything I could have done better? If not profitable, is there anything I should/can change?

Trade 1: Long 30s PB for -16t.

Trade 2: Re-entry long PB for -10t. MFE=10. Didn't scalp the 10t but hold on for a bigger move. "Buy towards ONH, 15m channel line!, 3200 round number" I wrote in my pre-market notes.

> Trade 1 & 2 review: In hindsight they were not optimal entries on a pullback (PB) although it seemed so at the time on the 30s (price was above the developing VAH & held above ONH). Entry was near the Keltner channel and a little far from ema20 on the 3m, so due to pullback (or some more consolidation). I was probably a little bit eager to catch the breakout to the moon. I should have paid more attention to the 3m and try to enter at or near the ema20. The 2nd trade was stopped on the PB to the 3m ema20 which would have been a perfect long entry point (and a BOF on the 30s!).


200605_US_RTH_session_1_2

(trade 1 & 2)

Trade 3: Short high range for -8t. MFE=4.

> Trade 3 review: Market seemed to have lost his temper and is going sideways (ranging) so I gave up the idea of a breakout trend continuation and opted for a range day which was one of the scenario's. Price stalled at the high so went short with a tight 8t stop just outside the range. No follow through and stopped on breakout.

Trade 4: Long BO for 12t. MAE=3.

> Trade 4 review: There was demand in the background (at 10.39 ET) and the breakout was on good volume so instantly went long for a ride to the moon. "Buy towards ONH, 15m channel line!, 3200 round number" my plan told me. So what did I do? I took it off for 12t. Ha, that's in the pocket. You won't go broke taking a profit. I guess it was my scalping instinct or monkey mind, whatever (in fact it is called the disposition effect). Price hit 3200 in 26 minutes. I feel a cold shower moment nearing.

Trade 5: Long 3m PB (near ema20) and 30s BOF/low range for 8t.

> Trade 5 review: This is a good 2-leg PB with-trend entry on the 3m and a BOF on the 30s (with tight stop). Just took 8t at 30s swing high. Just in time, there was no follow through.

Trade 6: Short PB for -3t & -7t.

Trade 7: Re-entry short PB for -8t & -10t.

> Trade 6 & 7 review: Went short on a pullback after a move down (target IBH). The market is still bullish. The pullback was too short and I should have expected it to go some further, so entry was too early. Besides the entry too early I went short against strong buying at the swing low. Not smart. Down -28t.

Trade 8: Short PB/BOF for 2x -5t.

> Trade 8 review: Went short on a BOF (after PB) and clear rejecting of range high. Market pushed up one more time, took me out, and went south.

Trade 9: Re-entry short PB/BOF for 10t & 1t (MFE=5)

> Trade 9 review: Went immediately short again & scaled-in 1x on a pullback (on a winner this time). Closed at swing low, possible support.

Trade 10: Short PB continuation for -19t (MFE=4) & -22t

> Trade 10 review: Market sold-off heavy (or so it seemed). Went short 2x on an impulse in the middle of a range. Forgot every rule and before I knew it I was down 41t.

By now I realised the market was consolidating (a little too late) and so I took a break (and cold shower) for an hour and half (the break that is, not the cold shower).

15.11 ET, back for the last hour.

Trade 11: Long BOF for -7t

> Trade 11 review: Price was near support. Went long for a mean reversion (MR) trade to the VPOC. Stopped for -7t.

Trade 12: Re-entry long BOF for -3t. MFE=8.

> Trade 12 review: Long again on a re-entry. Market went 8t my way and came down again. Stopped for -3t.

Trade 13: Re-entry long BOF for BE. MFE=14.

> Trade 13 review: Strong buying at the low. Went long again (3rd attempt). Market went my way for 14t. Now I will let my winner run but am not going to let it turn into a loser so I raised my stop to BE. Stop was hit, price turned and went straight up to VPOC at 3199. Well, I'll be damned. I guess I pulled up my stop too early.

Trade 14: Short 30s PB/Bear Flag for -12t. MFE=0. Target >40t at 3181.50 (VAL).

> Trade 14 review: The move up (which I clearly missed) was a nice test of the VPOC and a nice pullback (3m) without continuation to the upside. So I decided to wait for a signal to go short with target VAL at 3181.50. Short on 30s PB/Bear Flag. Stopped out for -12t.

Trade 15: Re-entry short for 9t. MFE=20! Target approximately 40t at 3181.50 (VAL). Target hit 2.5 min after exit.

> Trade 15 review: Market went my way for 20t! Now I will let my winner run but am not going to let it turn into a loser so I raised my stop to BE. Market makes a double bottom and prints a wide bull bar. I hit the close button for 9t profit (of the 20t). Price turned and went straight down to VAL at 3181.50. Well, I'll be damned, for the 2nd time. I guess I should have left my stop at BE.


200605_US_RTH_session_11-15

(trades 11-15)

Total income after a day hard work (12h): -95t. Have a nice weekend!

-95 Ouch!!! This has been MY trading in the last couple of days as well. Blew account! (Fell below margin)

I got frustrated that my method wasnt providing more. After a week of going live I was break even. (I think my max intraday drawdown was -36 POINTS-ish! Still, whatever your -# is you now need to get +# just to break even... including any -# along the way.)

I did not like having to trade +36 points just to BREAK EVEN! Even though mostly i did. But slowly this started me trading crazy, thinking I was using logic. Thinking I'll just cut this... let that ride... crap... reverse... crap... stop... move stop... crap...

Well...

Going back to tying to make a few POINTS by NEVER touching if in profits till targets hit. I start with wide initial stops and can tighten but NEVER widen. I try not to break even unless I can cover at least two commissions and its already gone against me at least once. Those are about my only rules. (Also going to try with two contracts so I can scale but thats besides the point)

You are a fire hydrant of information. I have no idea how you keep up with it all. Lol Very impressive. I just try to get in and manage my trade.

Like all your detailed information though its great. Thank you!

Just thought you might try testing a few of those rules I mentioned above. If you have and I'm out of line I apologize. Just some thoughts.




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  #32 (permalink)
Netherlands
 
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No trades during the EU session.

200608 US RTH session trading recap

Trade 1: Short high range (IBH, YH, ONH) for a 4pt mean reversion trade to the VPOC @3205.25. Scratched for -2t. Target reached after exit.
Trade 2: Long BOPB 5m OR (and at VAH support) for trend continuation, -10t.
Trade 3: Re-entry (trade 2) long, -3t.
Trade 4: Re-entry (trade 2) long for 4t.
Trade 2, 3 and 4 were actually one trade to catch a with-trend move up. Market went sideways for 1.5h (lunch time).
Trade 5: Short PB for a gap close (target YC & ONL), -10t. Entry is in the middle of the range, trend is up.
Trade 6: Long PB, 4t. No follow through.
Trade 7: Short (just below VAH) for a mean reversion trade to VPOC, -7t. No follow through, sideways and up.
Trade 8: Re-entry short, -8t.
Trade 9: Long on impulse, -3t.
Trade 10: Re-entry (trade 8) short, -8t.
Trade 11: Re-entry (trade 8) short, -24t.

Total loss 16.75 points (2 small winners, 9 losers)

I am clearly not in sync with the market. May take a break to work things out.

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  #33 (permalink)
Netherlands
 
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I really was not content with my trading and took some time off to work things out.

I am very hard trying to make every day, or even every trade, a positive one. This leads to forcing trades (with bad timed entries/exits), FOMO, revenge trading and ultimately overtrading. This is not how successful trading is supposed to be.

I don't think trading a lot is necessarily a bad thing (when scalping) but it is when it's motivated by a feeling to prove something, an urge to make up for losses made or trying to get even. Revenge trading comes in all kind of flavors. I guess a mental trading coach can help with this but as a retail trader you don't have access to a trustworthy first class coach and I wonder if reading Brett Steenbarger, Mark Douglas and the like will be enough. You still have to do it yourself. I believe trading is not so much a technical game, this can be learned, but more a mental game. I studied a lot on this subject and still struggle with the implementation.

This journal is like a mirror and really helps to reflect on my trading. I believe that going through this process will take me a step further and that's why I continue my journal.

So back to the basics. Identify a setup and trade this setup the best you can over a certain period of time. This will be my goal for the rest of the month.

I trade one instrument (MES) and using only one setup may give too little signals during the day. That's why I will stay with the setups mentioned in post #2. Additional to these setups I may take a Mean Reversion (MR) trade from Valua Area High/Low (VAH/VAL) to the Volume Point of Control (VPOC) in a balanced market.

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  #34 (permalink)
Netherlands
 
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200610 US AM session trading recap

- Skipped the gap close on the open (after rejecting higher prices in the first three minutes and test & reject YVAH 3214.50 & ON VPOC 3215).
- Skipped 1st 1m PB (to ema20, VWAP & YVPOC, 1st cross sell), target YVAL, ONL, YL (1st PB after open, 2nd from swing high).
- Trade 1: Short PB. Closed bc no follow through (and possible 2nd leg PB). Late in swing down and buying from the last swing low looked strong (with wide green candles which signal at least a possible 2nd leg).
- Missed 2nd leg PB (abc) short for test ONL & YL (didn't want to get in so soon after the last trade but I should have, was a nice (re-)entry with a lower high on the 2nd leg which signals there's no more buying).
- Low range support at 3183.25 (low of last swing to the high June 8th / 60m).
- Not taking the first PB (1m 1st cross buy) after the first swing up from the low bc still down on the 3m and below VWAP. But above support (ONL, YL, 60m low range, oversold 15m).
- 11:00 ET: 3 pushes down & SOT (3m).
- 11:36 ET: trapped shorts but not going long into swing high resistance (from 10:41).
- Trade 2: BOF at prior swing high (10:41) (mean reversion scalp to HVN / VPOC)
Total 3.75 pts

200610_US_AM_session_trading_recap



Lunch time and waiting for FOMC at 14:00.

No trades during PM session. Just watched and relaxed.

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  #35 (permalink)
Netherlands
 
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200611 Market Prep.

YC 3185.25. Bearish sentiment during Asia & EU session. Market sold-off to 3098.25 (ONL).

Levels below: @3087.50 (June 4th Low), 3080 (LVN), 3065.50 (PMH), 3060.75 (NVPOC June 2nd), 3008.25 (HVN), 2947.50 (Composite VPOC), 2935.75 (NVPOC May 22nd).

Yesterday's Levels: YVPOC 3194.50, YVAL 3186.75, YVAH 3203.75, YL 3179.75 YH 3221.25.

Levels ON: ONH 3188.50, ONL 3098.25, VPOC 3131.75, VAH 3158.50, VAL 3107.50, HVN 3103.25.

Scenarios:
1. Market comes to a halt and grinds sideways (ranging). Sell on range high / VAH resistance and buy at range low / VAL support. Use VPOC and range opposite as targets.
2. Continuation of the downtrend. Sell on PBs & upside BOFs. Trade towards lower levels.
3. Reversal of EU downtrend and gap close (test ON & yesterday's levels): Buy on PBs & downside BOFs towards higher levels.

These are just notes for myself!

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  #36 (permalink)
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200611 US RTH session trading recap

Trade 1: Long on a pullback after an impulse up on the 30s. Exit at RTH open, scalp for 2.5 pts.
Trade 2: Short on a pullback for 3.5 pts. Exit at low. Entry into support, not much potential.
Trade 3: Short pullback for 5 pts. Exit at low. Late in move down.
Total 11 pts.

Trade 1 and 2 were scalps within the first hour range. Trade 3 was a nice with-trend entry but very late in the move down.

Scenario 2 played out after ranging for an hour (scenario 1). I didn't play it as planned. I had better focused on an short entry on a pullback to ema20 early on in the day (or an upside BOF) and held it till it closed above ema20.

Three winners out of three but I missed the whole move down and didn't act as planned.

It's a constant battle. I must push myself hard to do the right thing and that is to enter & exit according to my rules and play the scenarios as I planned them.

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  #37 (permalink)
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200612 US RTH session trading recap

I didn't start well today. I was late with my market preparation and hadn't enough time to write it down. Doing my market preparation before the open is important. It brings me in tune with the market and acts like a kind of map. It's also good for confidence build up. If doing my preparation during market open I am already behind. Price opened inside yesterday's range above value near ONH. I decided to wait for the market to show some direction. After 20 minutes things lined up.

Trade 1: Short 30s 2-leg pullback (ABC) which is a pullback on a higher time frame (3m). There was no immediate follow through and buying came in so I closed the trade for 2x 0.5 pt. I want to see it going right out of the gate or else I am out. Because of the buying and lack of supply I didn't re-enter. There was also a possibility for a mean reversion to the VPOC. Take as less risk as possible. There is always another opportunity.

Trade 2: Short on pullback. Closed again on buying for 4.75 pts. There were some nice levels below (YC, YVPOC, ONL) which act as a magnet and once achieved can attract buying. It's a pity I missed a nice and rather straightforward move.

Trade 3: Long on PB. Closed BE.

Total 5.75 pts.

I had problems with my charts. At one moment there was a 10 pt spread between the ES and the MES. Looked like the ES was lagging behind and could not keep up with the MES. Could be a problem caused by roll-over, wrong data or last NT version which I installed this morning. Whatever, I could not trade anymore and stopped for the day.

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  #38 (permalink)
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206015 Market Prep.

Prior week levels: PWC 3023.75 PWL 2971.00 PWH 3055.00
Yesterday's levels: YH 3076.75 YL 2971.00 YC 3024.25 YVPOC 3010.25 VAH 3040.00 VAL 2992.75
Overnight levels: ONH 2997.75 ONL 2923.75 VPOC 2966.00 VAH 2992.00 VAL 2953.50
Daily levels: 2981.50 2893.25
Weekly levels: 3220.75 2954.50 2749.75 2706.75

Price @2964.00 is below yesterday's low and below value 2992.75. Bearish.

Market sold-off in Asia session, came back in EU session (to daily level @2981.50). On 60m: downtrend (3 pushes down, buy divergence). On 15m: ranging. On 3m: ranging

Scenarios:
1. On bearish strength: sell towards ONL, daily level 2893.25.
2. On bullish strength: buy towards ONH, daily level 2981.50, YVPOC, YC (Gap fill)
3. When ranging: sell VAH, buy VAL towards VPOC.

These are just notes for myself! Don't use it to trade on.

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  #39 (permalink)
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200615 US AM session trading recap

Trade 1: Long PB (lower time frame) for -5.25 pts. Entry is too early. Need to be patient. Wait for a 3m ema20 PB. Now it's more a breakout trade (into prior swing high resistance). Bad entry.
Trade 2: Re-entry long PB for -3.50 pts. Need to be patient. See Trade 1.
Trade 3: Re-entry long PB for 10 pts. This is the correct entry. Nice 3m ema20 PB and almost 50% retracement. Out at daily level. Just wait for the right entry.
Trade 4: Long PB for -2.75 pts. Too early, see trade 1. We were now inside yesterday's value and it looked like YVAL was support (buying). Played for next level which is yesterday's naked VPOC. I should have recognized we just reached target ONH (which became IBH). Also, the swing was extended and due for a pullback. Bad entry.
Trade 5: Re-entry long PB for -3 pts. Too early. See trade 4.
Trade 6: Short mean reversion to 3m ema20 & VPOC for 3.75 pts. Closed a little early. VPOC was hit for a potential 2.5 pts extra.
Trade 7: Long PB (trend continuation) for 1.25 pts. Play for ONH/IBH, YVPOC and YC.
Trade 8: Re-entry long PB for 5.50 pts. Chickened out. Should at least wait till last high at ONH & IBH (for a test).
Trade 9: Long on support at ONH / IBH (after breakout) for -3 pts. Stopped on PB.
Trade 10: Long PB (YVAL provided support) for 7.25 pts. Played for YVPOC (naked). Closed little too early (on consolidation on lower time-frame). YVPOC was hit for a potential 4.5 pts extra.

Total profit 10.25 pts.

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  #40 (permalink)
Netherlands
 
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200615 US PM session trading recap

Trade 11: Long PB for a test of the high and possibly YH. Closed for 0.75 pts based no follow through.

No more trades as I had problems with my NinjaTrader charts again (just like last Friday). When things get a little more volatile ES is lagging. I use ES and MES on one chart which I think may be causing the problem. I am thinking to just watch and trade the MES and see how that turns out.

Total profit for the day is 11 pts.

Scenario 2 played out. On bullish strength: buy towards ONH, daily level 2981.50, YVPOC, YC (Gap fill)

Placed 1 mean reversion (counter-trend ) trade and 10 (with-trend) long trades from which a couple with a too early entry resulting in a loss. In total 5 losers & 6 winners. Today I was good positioned with the trend. I should try to be a little more patient with my entries and let the winners run a little further so they can reach target.

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August 31, 2020


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