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hen322's ZN OrderFlow Exploratory Daytrading


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hen322's ZN OrderFlow Exploratory Daytrading

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  #1 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received

All trades will be on my live account, using real money. The current market condition is still not optimal for trading, but I have noticed some spots where I could make a quick tick. I would also like to participate in getting Big Mike to donate and help Ecuador. And last, but not least, I like to see if BloodHound could be a tool that I could use for my trading.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #2 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received

No trades today.

This morning, I had to rollover my charts and change my indicator values for the treasuries. I didn't get enough sleep last night and didn't feel awake all morning.

There were opportunities for me starting at 5:30 pst, after it did a breakout through it's overnight lows. And then it did a second breakout through its lows again at around 7:20 pst.

I noticed a possible spread play for a 1 tick profit after the second breakout, but I still felt sleepy and I haven't been paying consistent attention to how the market was moving before.

The liquidity is starting to get back to where it was before the pandemic, my guess would be around 70-75% compared to the sizes we had back in February.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #3 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received


No trades today.

Around 5:10 pst, the treasuries worked its way to their lows. I couldn't tell if it was going to do a breakout or a reversal because the action was slow, and their was not much size trading to give me clues to a possible direction. 5:20 pst open was coming and I didn't know whether it would cause a breakout or reversal. When it came, price traded around its lows and eventually grinded up into the middle of their overnight range. The UltraBond led the way which was something I could have used, but was not confident in during this time.

I received my BloodHound licence and will start reviewing the instructional videos soon.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #4 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received

3 Trades Today (two -1 tick losses, and a scratch trade).

After the 5:15 ADP number came out, price moved well. I felt that I missed two opportunities at that time.
Everything aligned for a breakout trade, and for a split second, I felt good about it, but I didn't take it. I have not been good at breakout trades before.

It seemed like the action was moving well, so I decided to try the next opportunity I saw.

Trade 1: Spread Queue Play (1 tick loser)
I thought I could catch a quick 1 tick when I noticed some size trading at two prices. I exited with 1 tick loss when it moved against me.
I should have looked to short the trade instead of taking a long position because the momentum kept slamming the price down everytime it climbed back up the range.

Trade 2: Fade Play (scratch)
I was 1 tick in the money, but I held, and ended up scratching the trade.

Trade 3: Fade Play (1 tick loser)
I tried another fade play after what seemed like its third wave. I exited with a 1 tick loss after seeing it hit the next price below and also noticed the bonds leading down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4u0XWvi35QI&feature=youtu.be

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #5 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received

2 Trades Today (1 tick loser and a 1 tick winner).
I am down -2 ticks so far this month.

The day started out well, there was good movement in the morning. At 5 pst, treasuries did its first breakout to the lows, and was short lived.
The 5:30 jobless claims number kept the treasuries in the middle of its overnight range.
Then at 6 pst, they did a larger breakout to its lows.

Trade 1: Fade Play (1 tick loser)
At 6:40 pst, after the treasuries did it's first major breakout at it's lows, I attempted a fade trade. I was 1 tick in the money, and then I gradually followed it down with a 1 tick loss.

Trade 2: Fade Play (1 tick profit)
They made another wave down, bounced up, then back down for a second chance at the bounce. I entered at 7:26 pst.
I was 2 ticks in the money, but exited with a 1 tick profit.

Today was a scratch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8o_3aCqfww&feature=youtu.be

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #6 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received

No Trades today.

After the 530 pst non-farm number came out, the price action went too haywire for me to trade. I didn't want to just enter a short, and hope that it would tank down while the ES went straight up. Everytime I thought about entering, I felt more like it was a gamble, because price was too volatile, making price jump over another real fast. I waited until the action slowed down, but that's when price in the treasuries went back to the middle of their overnight range. They gradually went back up to where it broke out, while the ES stayed up.

When the stock market opened, the liquidity was still too thin in the treasuries for a good trade. I couldn't notice enough size to lean on for making an entry. This is my fifth time seeing how a non-farm Friday is like.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #7 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received

2 trades today (2 tick loss, and a 1 tick loser)
-5 ticks running total for this month.

I got lost into studying the charts on where all the possible support and resistances are at for each treasuries. It looked like UB was leading, and then ZB, and the ZF was following ZN. Then price jumped higher 3 ticks, hung there for a while, then jumped again, and hung there. By that time, ZN was at it's highs, and ZF already made a breakout, and the bonds were no where near it's highs. I tried the trade anyway, thinking that the ZN would follow the ZF, and break it's highs. I was wrong, and the price pulled back into the overnight range.

Trade 1: Before she goes, exploratory stupid trade. (2 tick loser)
I'm just an idiot today, getting too anxious to make a trade and get those 2 ticks i lost last week back.
I was never good at breakout trades so far, so why risk my hard earned money on this trade? Just being stupid!
The liquidity is still too thin, making it chop around enough to stop me out.

Trade 2: Fade Trade (1 tick loss).
All three treasuries except the UB, broke through their highs. I decide to try a fade trade. I was treating this like a second wave, because I thought I saw the first wave happen in the ZF earlier. This could have been classified more as a 1st wave if I didn't rely it solely from the ZF. After I entered, it went against me, and I was not confident in the trade, and blew out with a 1 tick loss.

Liquidity is still too thin for me to comfortably trade in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGf6gPBWNwA&feature=youtu.be

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #8 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received

1 Trade, 1 tick winner.
-4 ticks running total for June.

I took a short trade because I noticed resistance across the board, and all treasuries were at the top of their overnight ranges. Bonds were leading. UB was leading down and staying there.
My stoploss would be if they took out the absorption price (where my entry was), and started hitting the next price with around 300 hits.
I exited for a 1 tick profit, because price seemed to be teasing it's way up.
I was in the trade for around 4 minutes.
If I held for 10 minutes, I could have had a 3 tick profit.
Emotionally, I just couldn't take another loss, that's why I didn't hold.



Shorter Video with Commentary Starting Today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQPTITAq1IM&feature=youtu.be

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #9 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received

2 Trades (2 tick loser, and another 2 tick loser)
-8 ticks so far this month.

I wanted to look for a trade today, that was my main problem.

Trade 1: (Fade Play, 2 tick loss)
I thought enough clues was aligning for a short trade. The longer-term bonds was still diverging alot from the shorter-term ones. While I was in the trade, I missed the ES breaking its lows again, which would signal me into exiting. I exited with 2 tick loss.
Just giving away 2 ticks everyday cause i'm an idiot. Today wasn't even a good day to trade. I need to just wait until it is, and shut down my computer when it isn't.



Trade 2: (Fade Play, 2 tick loss)
it looked like another opportunity to short. I hit out with 2 tick loss, because I saw UB holding up there, and ES was starting to move back down, and the offer in the ZN was pulling away.
I basically took another trade, after telling myself to be done for the day.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2TJHQ552UY&feature=youtu.be

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #10 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 128 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 146 given, 231 received


No trades today.

All four treasuries were diverging too much for me to get a good read. I noticed the ZF stuck in the middle of it's range while the longer term bonds kept making new highs, and the ZN was struggling to make new ones.

Since i'm -8 ticks so far this month, I am more cautious about what trades to take, and to just wait for the ones that scream out, "take this trade! Everything is in alignment, so fire!" Instead of "I think there is enough clues for this trade to be an okay one."

I just signed up for my second webinar with John Grady for June 24th to July 10th. I feel that I'm more ready to take in more information from him than from my first webinar, because all of it was new to me at that time. Most of his information is settled in my head now, to where I will be able to understand more of what he is teaching.

SharkIndicator:
I completed the first 3 tutorial videos and am working on the fourth one. As of now, I am testing the strategy that the videos taught, with a 30 tick profit, and 15 tick stoploss in the ES. My backtesting is showing a profit, so now I'm just running it throughout the day with a sim account after I'm done trading live with the treasuries. I'm starting to really like BloodHound.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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