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Regaining My Footing, The Dust Has Settled, and is Time to Climb Back Up.
This is my second time taking the webinar. I’m understanding more of how he teaches. I’m understanding more of what he is teaching. He is trying to teach you what he sees. How to read the orderflow. He shows you the spots to look for trades. Why it’s not a good idea to take a trade during this time period. He points out when it’s moving ugly and the best chance you get is a coin flip on that one.
He is like a coach who teaches a player on how to play basketball. Then once he’s done teaching, and the player knows how to play, the only way the player is going to get better is when he actually plays against real opponents. He will make mistakes and not be as good as he thought, but as long as he keeps going and working on getting better, he will become better.
One major key that most people never think about is…..having a large enough “Frame of Reference” to compare your possible trades to. Basically, he said that the average time would be around 12 months of studying the orderflow. You need to be there everyday when the market is open.
You have to trade live, but have the money management skills to last through out a whole year to build up that frame of reference. I have only 3 months so far. I started February, March and April would not count, and then May and June.
He didn't say these exact words, but that's the impression I'm getting.
He also strongly advises to not rely on sim trading to get better. I understand what he is saying. I can relate already by being -8 ticks down for the month so far, which causes me to be more cautious about my trades. If I was -1 tick down instead of 8, I would have placed a trade at least a couple times or more, last week. And maybe those trades might have been winners, but no one will know because I didn't place those trades.
When I lose money, and don't want to lose anymore, my mind becomes more sharper and motivated to review what I have done, what has happened so far, and what I can do to get better.
After having 3 days of my second webinar, I'm starting to get back my confidence and motivation to place another trade.
Last Friday, he lost 1 tick, and scratched one, so he ended net 0 ticks at the end of the 3-day week. He missed some good trades because he was in the middle of explaining something or answering a customer's question.
“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
I wanted to make a trade, so during the webinar, when we came to a spot, he decided to enter, and I decided to enter after it went 1 tick against him. The reason I did that was because I was hoping to catch that trade that goes 1 tick against you before it goes your way. He entered into the ZB, and I was entering the ZN.
I figured that this should be a good trade, because he is taking it.
He blew out with a 3 tick loss, and I blew out with 1.
Why did we take that trade? He took it of what had happened so far. All the treasuries were at their lows, and the ES has been making new highs most of the morning. It looked like it reached its top and started moving down. That was one of the clues.
The other clues were, the treasuries were at a technical support level, and the pace of activity wasn't strong enough to make for a breakout. So he took a shot at it. I agreed too, so I clicked my mouse to join the bid. The bid was at 3000, so it looked like I wouldn't get the fill. A second later, sell orders slam against me, which made my order filled for a long position. Then he blew out of his trade, and I zeroed in on my and told myself, if this trade starts hitting the next price down and goes to offer, then I'll join the offer for a 1 tick loss. It did exactly that, and I got filled.
I'm -9 ticks down this month now, and I feel like he is letting me down. I'm starting to feel that he's just a coach. He teaches you what to look for and how to play the game, but he's not going to perform like Seth Curry.
After hearing him enough times, I have a voice in my head that says “When enough stars align, is when the trade works. But sometimes it’s the kind of day when it doesn’t. But when it does work, it works most of the time.” Strangely enough, I can wrap my head around that. I understand, as long as I keep working on it, and not give up, and give myself another 9 months to complete that whole year, then I would have given myself a fair chance at it.
He made 2 trades today: -3 tick loss in ZB, and +6 tick win in ES.
(en = entry, ex = exit, grey left-column is ZN, orange column is ZB)
After it retraced back to my entry, the price went down more, so I'm glad I didn't use my max 3-tick stoploss.
“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
