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hen322's ZN OrderFlow Exploratory Daytrading


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hen322's ZN OrderFlow Exploratory Daytrading

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  #11 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

No trades today.

Wide overnight range. All morning, all the treasuries traded in the middle of it, and never went near it's highs or lows. I decided to work on my orderflow reading by trading in my sim account. I ended up with +4 ticks and 1 scratch. My ratio was 1:1 for each scalp.

Here is a short video if interested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vjsz1-fDK8&feature=youtu.be

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #12 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

No trades today.

The treasuries just kept ranging in the middle of their overnight range. It was too hard for me to find the turning points at the top and bottom because of light volume. The stock market was expected to tank down at the open. It did a little, and the treasuries were moving inverse, not tick for tick, but gradually. Then the stock market started to gradually move up and up, and the treasuries kept trading within its range. I didn't find any good opportunities today.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #13 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received


No trades today.

When I'm -8 ticks down for the month, that's when I get really cautious and careful about when to use my real hard-earned money for a trade.

A few minutes later after the Retail Sales release at 530 today, the longer-term treasuries broke through its lows, but the shorter-term treasuries didn't. Their overnight low was holding. Then they all traded back up, and into a wide range.

It was hard to catch 3 fade trades that I was eyeing, and when I didn't get filled, I was glad, cause it chopped around those areas before reversing. I guess it pays to watch the orderflow by keeping you out of chop.

If you have never seen how the market thins out after an important number release such as Retail Sales, then check out my video here!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8MoL04urOU&feature=youtu.be

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #14 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

No trades today.

I got a smaller computer monitor so I basically spent all morning looking for the best font to be the easiest on my eyes. I still was paying attention to the orderflow and how the treasuries were trading. I did notice 2 spots, but haven't seen enough of them in order for me to be confident in taking the trade.

I am noticing that the turning points are not as choppy as the last couple of months. Even though the liquidity still isn't as thick as last February, the price action has been moving better with less chop.

The 2 spots I noticed was:
1. An absorbtion that was broken through.
2. A reversal at the top of the overnight range.

Check out what they look like in the orderbook.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsgTs2JiorM&feature=youtu.be

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #15 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

No trades today, but a good reference.

All the treasuries started trading near it's overnight highs. But everything about how the price moved, and the sizes of the trades, where hard to read for reversal points.

This is the kind of slow action, and not enough size for me to be comfortable taking a shot for a turning point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bh8o4e6xkaM&feature=youtu.be

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  #16 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

Regarding yesterday's post from @Big Mike and @SharkIndicators about giving feedback for BloodHound.

I got away from chart trading ever since I started taking No BS Day Trading courses. Before that time, I was learning a variety of indicators and coding in NT8 for making custom ones. I was thinking about taking C# courses, because I was convinced that if I wanted to get more of an edge, I would need to create custom strategies and let the computer do most of the trading. But I knew that it would have taken more months, possibly years, and more energy from me that I didn't have.

And then, at the beginning of this month, BloodHound rolled right into my path. When I saw their logic board, that's when I knew that the programming was going to be possible for me sooner than later. Recently, I was looking into ADL that TT offers, which is like BloodHound, blocks of code that can be connected to other blocks of code to get a result, but the difference is, ADL is for orderflow whereas BloodHound is for charts.

I learned how to quickly modify and backtest a strategy with BloodHound in my trading sessions. I found myself becoming really addicted to trading the chart. My routine would be to keep modifying the strategy until the backtest gave a profitable result, then that would be my okay to run it.

I wish I had more hours in the day to keep going through the webinar videos they offer.

Once I got more into BloodHound, I started another journal thread dedicated to it.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #17 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

No trades on Friday, but a good lesson.

It was a slow day. Even though the turning points were hard to find, when it went one direction, it was fairly long.
After recording the session and speeding up the playback, you can notice how all of the treasuries moved.

ZF would hardly chop around 1 tick.
ZN would chop at 1-2 ticks
ZB would chop 2-3 ticks
UB would chop 3-4 ticks.

So that's why I regularly look for the longer term bonds to lead. But keep in mind that they do chop around more than the shorter term notes. I focus on trading the ZN, so the chop of 1-2 ticks is expected. And today, the ZF didn't really chop at all.
Being aware of all this at the same time helps me read the moves for the ZN.


“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #18 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

Webinar, Questions, and Frame of Reference.

No trades on Monday. There wasn't enough size trading for me to read the turns.

I'm about to start No BS Day Trading Webinar on Wednesday (tomorrow). If you have any questions that you want me to ask him, post it up here, I'll ask for you and get you answers.

This is my second time taking it. His successful students usually take it 2-3 times. I'm hoping I can turn into one of them. I got to admit, I am discouraged. I thought I knew what he was teaching from the first webinar, and am still not as confident as I want to be. One of the questions I want to ask him is...."How does it feel when you know you're there. Do you still feel uncertain? Or do you feel confident enough to know that enough money will keep coming in to make a living?

I know that a major part of confidence is having a big enough 'frame of reference' to compare setups to when you are about to enter a trade. I don't feel that mine is big enough yet. Right now, I'm in the stage of working on 'lasting long enough in the game in order to create it'. But it is discouraging when I keep losing real money and keep paying monthly fees for data feeds and access to live trading in the Jigsaw platform. The thing that really upset me was that the cost of data feeds doubled a couple months ago, and the exchange, clearing, routing, and commission fees keep climbing up as well! It's getting to the point where this whole thing isn't working. If I don't turn the corner by September or November, then I would need to seriously think about stopping.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #19 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

First day of Webinar.

He had alot of returning students.
He updated us on the new normal for the liquidity in the orderflow.
At the end of the day, he was up by 1 tick. He was trading 3 lots.

There was an absorbtion play at the top of the overnight range, and it took him 3 shots to catch the turn. His first trade was a scratch, the second one was a -1 tick loss, and the third was +2 ticks, and if he held longer, it would have been +4.

He explained that many times you would need to take 2-3 shots in order to catch it.

I thought that the absorbtion got too big, and was going to bust through, so I asked him about it. He explained that he knew the treasuries started out this morning trading at its lows, then started trading up, and kept pushing up, until the absorbtion point, and was clear that someone was unloading size, so it depends on the situation.

He is such a good teacher because he thoroughly explains things, and at the same time, trades live.

I do get tempted to copy his trades, but he says not to, because if his first 2 trades are losers, and let's say the student decides to not copy his third one, if the third trade turns out to be a big winner, then he is up, and the student is down.

I'm going to probably still sneak in a trade or two, hehe.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #20 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received


Day 2 of Webinar.

He didn't take any trades today. The action wasn't good enough. He teaches that when days are good, that's when you do 15 trades, but when it is not, that's when you do zero, and don't try to convince yourself of a trade setup, it's better to wait for the trades that are "no brainers".

I notice that there is a good amount of students this time then there were last time in February. It's easy to tell because there are more questions being fired off. We covered alot of topics and he always seems to have the answers to everything about trading.

If you have a question that you would like me to ask him, post it here and I'll squeeze it in

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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