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My name is Paulo, i just finish my register in Big Mike Forum, and I accept the challenge of starting my own journal.
Hope this could really help me in day trading. I'm currently in SIM trading.
Preferred Markets: ES and FDAX
Currently, I have two groups of entry Market activations:
1- Activation Group Go with the Trend, with 2 possible Market Entry:
- Opening Activation (OA) - This is an entry used only at the Opening bell, when the market cuts a resistance/support with an extreme volume, I enter to follow the trend
- Green Light (GL) - This is an entry used to follow the trend, and the activation comes with the Green Light of all indicators and market sentiment
2 - Activation Group Reversal/End of the Trend, with 2 possible Market Entry:
- V1P - This is an entry based on volume and price candles, I enter the opposite way of the trend (Risk Entry)
- P1C - This is an entry based on price candles, I enter the opposite way of the trend (Less Risk)
- V2P - This is an entry to follow the main trend, but usually the market have some corrections, I enter in the correction (Risk entry)
- V2C - this is an entry to follow the main trend, but usually the market have some corrections, I enter in the correction (Less Risk)
Finally today, the price seems to have movement, and when this happens, we can spot some nice opportunities.
In terms of Price trend, the main trend was down, so a nice opportunity is to go with the flow.
I spot a nice entry to go down: So I got a 38% of fib (correction of the previous impulse) plus double roof (swing is showing this event)
I wait for the stop of the price, so I count 3 candles (the first candle is the highest, second and third stays below of of the first Candle) - > Enter Short with the stop a tick above the first candle.
After that, wait for the price movement to go down, then I draw a extreme trend line, and when I detect that the price was no longer inside of the extreme trend line I decided to exit (because many times price comes against us).
Nice afternoon of trading, but I was not able to get the best of Opportunities.
ES market Open for High trades Only, but in my mind was that price will eventually get down. I saw the first impulse with VOL, then I was expecting for the correction (but the correction came with VOL too), so I stayed a little confused. After that comes another Impulse (the second one), so I though, well I started to count the Impulses in order to enter short on the last Impulse ( the 5 wave).
The 5 wave came, well with little VOL (it seems to me that this was the point of return), I change to Live account and enter short, wait for VOL, but VOL didn't appear
I decide to leave the operation, If I stayed i was able to get 1 point (that was my target), but still I think I did the best option because it seems that the market may want to go Up again.
I would say that FDAX had a very interesting morning with several opportunities to go long...
I miss it all
So I started to find a possibility to go Short, I start to find resistances and project the price to find where could the price go.
I found a place where I had a resistance (not very strong), and the projection of the first wave to get my second wave overlap 100% with that resistance.
I wait for the price to get there (...) After a few minutes the Price gets!!!
I was ready to enter, I know that to enter short I should enter and exit very quickly because the price could eventually return to long. I detect VOL to go Short and wait for 2 price candle to fail: I enter short, price comes against me for a second or two, but it gave me reason and I exit.
Consistent low risk profits from trading and investing is a challenge many millions of people take on, yet only a select few are ever able to attain. The objective and mechanical rules for consistent low risk profits are very simple, yet the layers of illusions keep most from ever seeing what is real in trading and investing. The two main forms of analysis in trading and investing are technical and fundamental analysis, and they are very real. However, thinking that mastering these two forms of analysis will lead to consistent low risk profits is an illusion second to none.
The more an individual attempts to master these types of analysis, the more they may be layering subjective complex illusions on top of each other. This is a recipe for consistent failure.
What many beginning traders don't realize is that they are walking east and west trying to reach the North Pole. No matter how hard they work, the goal they desire is not attainable as the path they are on is an illusion. Trading strategies that work don't change with time or changing market conditions. Quite frankly, to think market conditions ever change at all is a strong illusion that can only be removed when one focuses on the foundation of price movement: Supply and demand. A simple and minor shift in perception to what is real can lead to a monumental shift in trading and investing performance.
The focus of this piece is to identify and remove the veil of illusion from trading and investing. How? By realizing that the movement of price in any market is based at its core on an ongoing supply/demand and human behavior relationship and understanding that low risk/high reward opportunity exists when this simple and straight-forward relationship is out-of-balance. First, I will quantify a supply/demand imbalance for objective opportunity. As most traders are well aware, the overall goal is to decrease risk and increase profit potential. But many novice traders' strategies actually accomplish the opposite. Results for everyone from the active trader to the casual investor follow from taking various actions. Instead of focusing on changing our actions, it's time to notice where those actions come from.
The Lesson 1: Indicators and oscillators are nothing more than a derivative of price and volume. Price is all that need be considered when performing objective, reality-based analysis.
The Lesson 2: Strong news actually creates powerful turns in the market, opposite of what the majority expects because one side (buyers or sellers) exhausts itself into a price level where objectively, supply or demand are out-of-balance.
The Lesson 3: When perceived risk is lowest, actual risk is often highest. When perceived risk is highest, actual risk is often lowest. Illusion: Everything in the company is good; therefore, the stock is a quality investment.
Most people require specific criteria in order to feel comfortable buying a stock. These criteria likely include:
Act Like A Goose
The human mind is not wired to trade properly. Our decision-making process is not like most other animals. Most people don't focus on reality when deciding to take action; we make decisions based on emotion, not intellect. Not only is it very difficult to live in complete reality, but consistently making actions based on reality is an even harder task many times.
A goose, on the other hand, would make an excellent trader and investor. When autumn approaches in the north, the geese don't wonder if winter will come or not. They certainly don't call a goose meeting to figure out a way to stave off winter. They simply act like a machine and fly south for the winter and repeat this process each and every year flawlessly for their entire life, without questioning their choice.
Throughout history, people that pioneered original reality-based thought on certain topics often paid for it with their life. An example that comes to mind was the crazy thought that the world was round. Though your life is certainly not in jeopardy with illusion-based trading and investing, the growth of your hard-earned capital sure is.
The Three Laws of Price Movement
Price movement, in any free market, is only a function of an ongoing supply and demand relationship within that market.
Any and all influences on price are reflected in price.
The origin of motion/change in price is an equation where one of two competing forces (buyers and sellers) becomes zero at a specific price.
A successful trader's path must be reality-based, not driven by illusion. The reality is that markets are nothing more than pure supply and demand at work; human beings reacting to the ongoing supply/demand relationship within a given market. This alone, ultimately determines price. Opportunity emerges when this simple and straight-forward relationship is "out-of-balance." When we treat the markets for what they really are, and look at them from the perspective of an ongoing supply/demand relationship, identifying sound trading and investment opportunities is not that difficult a task.
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