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Each setup must be confirmed by at least another timeframe to be valid.
For ES I look a 14000Vol, 7000Vol, 3min and 30min timeframes.
For FESX I look a 7000Vol, 3500Vol, 3min and 30min timeframes.
Of course the best is when all timeframes are telling the same thing.
Recently I added a 1min chart with VWAP and standard deviation bands and I find it very useful: almost every good setup happens when price is near the VWAP or one of the bands.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Yes, I'm Italian by birth. I was born in Milan and now I live in Rome.
BTW one of the brothers of one of my grandparents also went to Australia a long time ago!
Many italians were emigrants at the start of the last century.
This is another setup I usually trade. I learned this one recently while trading the forex market. It happens almost daily in forex spot, where this is a very reliable setup.
In terms of price action, it is a failed continuation move after an explosive move.
In the attached chart you can see it happening after last friday's nfp.
This setup shows itself more clearly on minute charts.
This is how a short doh! setup forms:
an explosive long move happens, usually after an important news
price pause a little after the move up and touches the vma from the upside
new longs enter the market, pushing price a little higher
price fails to reach new highs, and the bulls quickly close their positions
price drops back past the vma, the setup is formed and you can go short
If you listen, you can hear hundreds of traders saying "Doh!" all at once.
Doh!: failed continuation move after an explosive move
These can be traded as is, without indicators, using naked charts. The indicators I use and explain here, are meant only to make price action clearer, and not to define the setups themselves. Price action is the setup, not the indicators.
I tried to write a trading plan to start trading seriuosly, and soon I realized that this could easily be just another formal excercise. It serves you nothing to write the most perfect trading plan in the world if you don't unconsciously believe it.
So I relaxed and looked deeply into myself and found out that all I need is nothing more than a simple set of rules. I know well that discipline is the area I have to improve if I want a long term success. I'm not a beginner, I have setups, a deep understanding of probability and risk, capital, good money management skills and experience.
What I don't have now is enough time, because I run a small business. I've been tracking my trading errors for 9 months, and they are related to time. These are the errors I did the most, in order of frequency:
trades not related to one of my setups
delayed entries
missed trades
poor sleeping
I often did non-setup trades because I felt the urgency to trade to maximize the use of time. During the day I may have only 2 or 3 hours free to trade, so I did not want this time "wasted". Of course I know it is better no trades than losing trades.
I did delayed entries and missed trades because I was doing my other job while keeping the charts open on other monitors, and so I could not be focused enough on following the setups forming, leading to late entries and missed trades, and a poor work too.
At the evening I often work until late, because I have to finish my job, which I didn't do during the day because I was trying to work and trade at the same time => not enough sleep time.
It's amazing how powerful keeping a trading journal here can be. Just writing this post has made so clear that a better time management will improve my trading by removing the main source of errors.
Another weakness is failing to wait for the second target and closing half of the position too soon. I usually have two targets and can almost always spot a good second target but I often fail to wait and close the position too soon.
Other errors are very rare. I never do revenge trading, overtrading and news trading.
Yesterday I went to sleep at 4 a.m. because I was watching the US Open on tv.
So I broke the rule "Go to sleep no later than 24:00".
This morning I obviously felt tired, so I did not trade, just watched.
In the two charts attached I marked the setup I could have traded today in the Eurostoxx50 and the Bund.
I'll be watching the Bund in the next days, to see if I can trade it instead of the ES, because I like trading during the European morning (the Bund is most active in the morning) and it is quoted in euro.
On your fbl chart there is an entry near time of 11:50, a doji that touches your VMA and then next candle closes down...why is that not a slingshot in your entry system?
