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Jagui's journal to freedom
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Jagui's journal to freedom

  #11 (permalink)
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Confirmations

Each setup must be confirmed by at least another timeframe to be valid.

For ES I look a 14000Vol, 7000Vol, 3min and 30min timeframes.
For FESX I look a 7000Vol, 3500Vol, 3min and 30min timeframes.

Of course the best is when all timeframes are telling the same thing.

Recently I added a 1min chart with VWAP and standard deviation bands and I find it very useful: almost every good setup happens when price is near the VWAP or one of the bands.

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  #12 (permalink)
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grego View Post
Just found this thread, I wish you luck I will follow with interest.

BTW are you Italian by birth? Although I am Australian, my granparents were from the north around Torino

Grego

Thank you.

Yes, I'm Italian by birth. I was born in Milan and now I live in Rome.
BTW one of the brothers of one of my grandparents also went to Australia a long time ago!
Many italians were emigrants at the start of the last century.

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  #13 (permalink)
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Doh!


This is another setup I usually trade. I learned this one recently while trading the forex market. It happens almost daily in forex spot, where this is a very reliable setup.

In terms of price action, it is a failed continuation move after an explosive move.

In the attached chart you can see it happening after last friday's nfp.
This setup shows itself more clearly on minute charts.

This is how a short doh! setup forms:

  1. an explosive long move happens, usually after an important news
  2. price pause a little after the move up and touches the vma from the upside
  3. new longs enter the market, pushing price a little higher
  4. price fails to reach new highs, and the bulls quickly close their positions
  5. price drops back past the vma, the setup is formed and you can go short

If you listen, you can hear hundreds of traders saying "Doh!" all at once.

The opposite is true for a long signal.

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  #14 (permalink)
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A note on price action and indicators

As you can see, all my setups are defined in terms of pure price action:

  • MOF (Money on floor): first retracement after the beginning of a new trend
  • Slingshot: further retracements after the beginning of a new trend
  • First pullback: variation of MOF
  • Doh!: failed continuation move after an explosive move

These can be traded as is, without indicators, using naked charts. The indicators I use and explain here, are meant only to make price action clearer, and not to define the setups themselves. Price action is the setup, not the indicators.


Last edited by jagui; September 7th, 2010 at 10:57 AM.
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  #15 (permalink)
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My weaknesses

I tried to write a trading plan to start trading seriuosly, and soon I realized that this could easily be just another formal excercise. It serves you nothing to write the most perfect trading plan in the world if you don't unconsciously believe it.

So I relaxed and looked deeply into myself and found out that all I need is nothing more than a simple set of rules. I know well that discipline is the area I have to improve if I want a long term success. I'm not a beginner, I have setups, a deep understanding of probability and risk, capital, good money management skills and experience.

What I don't have now is enough time, because I run a small business. I've been tracking my trading errors for 9 months, and they are related to time. These are the errors I did the most, in order of frequency:

  • trades not related to one of my setups
  • delayed entries
  • missed trades
  • poor sleeping

I often did non-setup trades because I felt the urgency to trade to maximize the use of time. During the day I may have only 2 or 3 hours free to trade, so I did not want this time "wasted". Of course I know it is better no trades than losing trades.

I did delayed entries and missed trades because I was doing my other job while keeping the charts open on other monitors, and so I could not be focused enough on following the setups forming, leading to late entries and missed trades, and a poor work too.

At the evening I often work until late, because I have to finish my job, which I didn't do during the day because I was trying to work and trade at the same time => not enough sleep time.

It's amazing how powerful keeping a trading journal here can be. Just writing this post has made so clear that a better time management will improve my trading by removing the main source of errors.

Another weakness is failing to wait for the second target and closing half of the position too soon. I usually have two targets and can almost always spot a good second target but I often fail to wait and close the position too soon.

Other errors are very rare. I never do revenge trading, overtrading and news trading.


Last edited by jagui; September 8th, 2010 at 09:25 PM.
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  #16 (permalink)
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Rules

Time management
  • Do not work and look at charts at the same time
  • Completely focus on one activity at a time
  • Main job has higher priority than trading
  • Go to sleep no later than 24:00
Money management
  • Trade 1 contract for every $10k of trading capital
  • Stop trading for the day after a loss of $300 per contract
  • Stop trading for the month after a loss of $1000 per contract
Trading
  • Take trades only according to my setups
  • Close half or more of the position at the first target
  • Let part of the position run to the second target and/or trail it with the vma
  • The stop loss is only where the setup is no longer valid, no closer, no farther
  • Don't trade around news time
Others
  • Perform a mental reset after each trade
  • Keep the journal up to date with trades and rule following
  • Evaluate performance monthly, not more often
  • Don't trade when not feeling calm and confident, or when can't be completely focused


That's it.

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  #17 (permalink)
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2010-09-09

Yesterday I went to sleep at 4 a.m. because I was watching the US Open on tv.
So I broke the rule "Go to sleep no later than 24:00".

This morning I obviously felt tired, so I did not trade, just watched.

In the two charts attached I marked the setup I could have traded today in the Eurostoxx50 and the Bund.
I'll be watching the Bund in the next days, to see if I can trade it instead of the ES, because I like trading during the European morning (the Bund is most active in the morning) and it is quoted in euro.

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Excellent work - I to will be following and the best of luck!!!!

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  #19 (permalink)
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entry

On your fbl chart there is an entry near time of 11:50, a doji that touches your VMA and then next candle closes down...why is that not a slingshot in your entry system?

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  #20 (permalink)
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trippenlatin View Post
On your fbl chart there is an entry near time of 11:50, a doji that touches your VMA and then next candle closes down...why is that not a slingshot in your entry system?

This was a slingshot, as per definition, although a failed one.

Not sure if I would had taken it, because price was just a few ticks higher than the Murray Math Extreme OS (-2/8) level (not showed in that chart).

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