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Factor of N


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Factor of N

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  #71 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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Trading: Currencies
 
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Still 1 open trade from yesterday and the other one hit the target so 9/2s total so far is + 7 pips . Today was 2 winners 2 losers and 1 trade is still open + 36 pips so far for today .


Edit -
Closed the 2 open trades while price is approaching the 00 level and before its too late to not get slipped . + 42 on yesterdays open trade and + 6 on todays open trade . That wasnt the plan but it only make sense to be flat going into a holiday weekend and start fresh tuesday morning .

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Name:	$EURUSD  9_3_2010 (240 Min).jpg
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  #72 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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Since Im home and have a little free time Ill post these results . I had time to manually backtest factor of N last week and have traded it on recorded data using the variables and exit strategy already set forth in this thread .

For EURUSD 15 min. ( STF ) 240 min. ( LTF )

Week of ....

7/19/10 ----> 7/23/10 +132 pips net
7/26/10 ----> 7/30/10 - 57 pips net
8/2/10 ----> 8/6/10 + 14 pips net
8/9/10 ----> 8/13/10 + 53 pips net
8/16/10 ----> 8/20/10 + 158 pips net
8/23/10 ----> 8/27/10 + 169 pips net
* 8/30/10 ---> 9/3/10 + 140 pips net

* traded in real time live with $100 units/Oanda account .

I have another template set up for defining the LTF trend according to the price closing across the prior session high / low and the signal derived from price closing below the low of a HH bar in the bearish retracement zone to short and closing above the high of a LL bar in the bullish retracement zone to go long . The Macd histogram is a lagging tool that keeps you bullish when the trend has clearly gone bearish and vice versa , its just the way it is . Closing prices dont lie and make a sharper tool to follow in the path of the leaders .

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  #73 (permalink)
 zt379 
UK London
 
Experience: None
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Eric.
(for the same periods except includes data for 29/08/10):
Using your entry criteria:
15min (SFT) and 240 min (LTF):
1:1 profit loss ratio:

AUSUSD.
_________________________Total Trades__ +___ -___ Profit___ Loss_____Net
19/07/10 - 23/07/10 _________ 27_________ 18__ 9___+311____ -169_____+142
25/07/10 - 30/07/10 _________ 32_________ 19__ 13__ +298____ -186_____+112
02/08/10 - 06/08/10 _________ 33_________ 25___ 8__ +325____ - 96 _____+229
09/08/10 - 13/08/10 _________ 32_________ 20__ 12__ +401____ -176_____+225
16/08/10 - 20/08/10 _________ 31_________ 21__ 10__ +313____ -132_____+181
23/08/10 - 27/08/10 __________28_________ 22___ 6__ +429____ -80______+349
29/08/10 - 03/09/10 ____ _____35_________ 23__ 12___+313____ -142_____+171

Results are from taking every entry bar criteria for full 24 hour period per day (no dead zones included/omitted).
Not accounting for fills/commission.

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  #74 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: Currencies
 
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2 winners 1 loser today + 6 pips . The 3 lines break indicator I got from NT forum is an interesting price action tool Im looking at , not using it just checking it out while Im waiting for trades to unfold or materialize .

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Name:	$EURUSD  9_7_2010 (240 Min).jpg
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Name:	$EURUSD  9_7_2010 (15 Min).jpg
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  #75 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
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Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received


zt379 View Post
Eric.
(for the same periods except includes data for 29/08/10):
Using your entry criteria:
15min (SFT) and 240 min (LTF):
1:1 profit loss ratio:

AUSUSD.
_________________________Total Trades__ +___ -___ Profit___ Loss_____Net
19/07/10 - 23/07/10 _________ 27_________ 18__ 9___+311____ -169_____+142
25/07/10 - 30/07/10 _________ 32_________ 19__ 13__ +298____ -186_____+112
02/08/10 - 06/08/10 _________ 33_________ 25___ 8__ +325____ - 96 _____+229
09/08/10 - 13/08/10 _________ 32_________ 20__ 12__ +401____ -176_____+225
16/08/10 - 20/08/10 _________ 31_________ 21__ 10__ +313____ -132_____+181
23/08/10 - 27/08/10 __________28_________ 22___ 6__ +429____ -80______+349
29/08/10 - 03/09/10 ____ _____35_________ 23__ 12___+313____ -142_____+171

Results are from taking every entry bar criteria for full 24 hour period per day (no dead zones included/omitted).
Not accounting for fills/commission.

Looks green to me . Only problem is that the spreads will dig into that pretty deeply . I backed out a 1 pip slippage on both ends and the spreads and posted what I netted on the live account . Im using Oanda ( mostly ) and for EURUSD the spread has been around 2 pips or a little less on average . MB is consistently better in that the commission is fair and are far more stable for all connections , Oanda isnt consistent like that and disconnects a lot . Id rather pay a little more for better and more consistent service . Having 2 accounts to trade is a good idea because if all your eggs are in 1 basket you are screwed if the basket hits the ground . Im only trading inexpensive lot $izes until I build up and earn the right to trade more expensive lot $izes or multiples .

Keep it up though - good job . I hope more people join in and see that a boring , repetative , consistently traded method can put profits on the bottom line .

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  #76 (permalink)
 zt379 
UK London
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT and XTrader
Trading: Tomorrow
 
Posts: 1,535 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 1,393 given, 1,669 received


Quoting 
I have another template set up for defining the LTF trend according to the price closing across the prior session high / low and the signal derived from price closing below the low of a HH bar in the bearish retracement zone to short and closing above the high of a LL bar in the bullish retracement zone to go long . The Macd histogram is a lagging tool that keeps you bullish when the trend has clearly gone bearish and vice versa , its just the way it is . Closing prices dont lie and make a sharper tool to follow in the path of the leaders .

I concur (bold).
Without question the 15 min is signaling trades that are counter trend to the 240 min.

Wishing to stay true to a virtual indicator free approach, and clearly defined rules,
I will look into reducing the 240 min trend chart to 75 min.

This will have a faster MACD <> 0 response on the trend chart.
and hopefully reduce what are obvious counter trend trades on the 15 min entry chart.

Just thinking out loud here and to return in gratitude for what you've offered.

Many thx..

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  #77 (permalink)
 zt379 
UK London
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT and XTrader
Trading: Tomorrow
 
Posts: 1,535 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 1,393 given, 1,669 received


Eric j View Post
Looks green to me . Only problem is that the spreads will dig into that pretty deeply . I backed out a 1 pip slippage on both ends and the spreads and posted what I netted on the live account . Im using Oanda ( mostly ) and for EURUSD the spread has been around 2 pips or a little less on average . MB is consistently better in that the commission is fair and are far more stable for all connections , Oanda isnt consistent like that and disconnects a lot . Id rather pay a little more for better and more consistent service . Having 2 accounts to trade is a good idea because if all your eggs are in 1 basket you are screwed if the basket hits the ground . Im only trading inexpensive lot $izes until I build up and earn the right to trade more expensive lot $izes or multiples .

I've been pleasantly surprised with the "pipage".

Appreciate your comments.
I've been manually back testing on a basic Gain feed to get a sense of the rules and performance.
I trade using TT XTrader and would look to be trading this on CME instruments as and when.
This would deal with connection issues and spreads so the results should be broadly similar.


Quoting 
Keep it up though - good job . I hope more people join in and see that a boring , repetative , consistently traded method can put profits on the bottom line.

There in lies the definition for success..lol
It's interesting to see how consistent things are so far, across all the stats.
and refreshing, to say the least, to see consistency with simplicity.

As for boring, I've been at this long enough to know the value in that too...
Many thx..

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  #78 (permalink)
 zt379 
UK London
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT and XTrader
Trading: Tomorrow
 
Posts: 1,535 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 1,393 given, 1,669 received

15min and 75 min in motion
(as an example of faster MACD <>0 for trend chart).

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Name:	$AUDUSD  9_7_2010 (75 Min).jpg
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  #79 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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Notice how the 3 line break would keep you in this short if you rode it out untill it flips over to bullish . You could be sitting on 65 + pips by now Hmmmmm .

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  #80 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received



Eric j View Post
Notice how the 3 line break would keep you in this short if you rode it out untill it flips over to bullish . You could be sitting on 65 + pips by now Hmmmmm .

3LB appears so far to be a smoother trend definition tool on the LTF . The jury is still out on its ability to keep you in big moves on the STF although the screenshot from today makes 3LB look like the holy grail . My scanning back a few weeks shows me that today 3LB knew when to stay put but thats not always the case .

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