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Factor of N


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Factor of N

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  #41 (permalink)
 Trader.Jon 
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Eric j View Post
The switch bar and pattern presented itself 3 times recently . All are in whats described in this thread as the retracement zone ( albeit on the LTF here ) but I do notice the 2nd comfirms the double top and the 3rd confirms the head and shoulders . Theres no denying this pattern is a heads up that a trend is weakening and is a credible tool for forcasting turns .

Eric,

VERY interesting! Have never seen that described before ... have you setup a strategy or indicator to test for that setup?

TJ

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  #42 (permalink)
 Trader.Jon 
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Eric j View Post
Range analysis for EU . Between 6 - 8 AM EST theres a consistent lull . Im not concerned with the "why" things are only"when" things are but an explanation for this could be London lunch , only one market open and waiting for the NY open .
...
I believe they build positions when we least expect it and unwind them when we are all there to absorb their activity without throwing prices off . This explains to me why you see prices go directional in the off hours ONCE IN A WHILE , not every day .

Eric,

I also noticed that when I was starting to design my strategy: working at about a 145->215 EST start and dont start any trade after 520 ... kill any runner after 530 when it starts going the wrong way or stalls. I tend to agree on the lunch/nap time for the UK traders.

TJ

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  #43 (permalink)
 Trader.Jon 
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Fat Tails View Post
When to trade?

I have had this in mind for a longer time, so I just coded a little indicator that calculates the average hourly range for a specific time of a weekday over a user selectable period. Example:

...

Fat Tails, that is a wonderful piece of work! Is there any possibility of allowing us to use that indie?

Jon

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  #44 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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Trader.Jon View Post
Fat Tails, that is a wonderful piece of work! Is there any possibility of allowing us to use that indie?

Jon

Yes, opened a separate thread in the Elite-Section, where I display the results for other contracts. Still testing the indie (coded it this afternoon), but will make it available, once I am sure that it works correctly.

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  #45 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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Trader.Jon View Post
Eric,

VERY interesting! Have never seen that described before ... have you setup a strategy or indicator to test for that setup?

TJ

No , just keep an eye out for when it occurs . Its not necessarily a reversal but more often trendus interuptus .

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  #46 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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shodson View Post
I don't know all of the details but that's one of the thing I gleaned from a Shadowtraders webinar that they teach: most big players position themselves pre-market and close out to the public during RTH

Its the backbone of many theories about the elusive " big guys " . VSA and Tom Williams influenced me a lot and when you see evidence in afterhours its believable .

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  #47 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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shodson View Post
I don't know all of the details but that's one of the thing I gleaned from a Shadowtraders webinar that they teach: most big players position themselves pre-market and close out to the public during RTH

If you look at the volume analysis below, the story is different. The pre-market volume is insignificant, so most of the big players do not position themselves pre-market. Anyhow, the guys are not working during night!

I think that the big players wait for the noise to settle down after the market open. And if they position themselves for the next session they do so during the last hour of the previous session. This also explains some of the nice trends that develop after 3:00 PM EST and that carry over into the next day.

The night session mostly shows rangebound activity, and if the European Session trends away, it usually - but not always - retraces back to the US close of the prior day.

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  #48 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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Only 1 signal today + 16 pips . I have been qualifying a " flashing " trend change condition as valid , like the one today after the 0900 bar closed when the trend changed from bullish to bearish . Didnt take a rocket scientist to figure out the bears were piling in anyway .

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  #49 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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Fat Tails View Post
If you look at the volume analysis below, the story is different. The pre-market volume is insignificant, so most of the big players do not position themselves pre-market. Anyhow, the guys are not working during night!

I think that the big players wait for the noise to settle down after the market open. And if they position themselves for the next session they do so during the last hour of the previous session. This also explains some of the nice trends that develop after 3:00 PM EST and that carry over into the next day.

The night session mostly shows rangebound activity, and if the European Session trends away, it usually - but not always - retraces back to the US close of the prior day.

I agree . I would tend to believe that there are levels to which the big players want to push price before pulling the rug out to unwind while price is supported . Big volume spikes at major levels are surely the work of institutionals and thats where the trapped little guys are . They want to tease the breakout traders into buying the top and selling the bottom so surely theres no choice for them but bail out because they cant hold on to the next support or resistance level far away imho .

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  #50 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Fat Tails View Post
If you look at the volume analysis below, the story is different. The pre-market volume is insignificant, so most of the big players do not position themselves pre-market. Anyhow, the guys are not working during night!

I think that the big players wait for the noise to settle down after the market open. And if they position themselves for the next session they do so during the last hour of the previous session. This also explains some of the nice trends that develop after 3:00 PM EST and that carry over into the next day.

The night session mostly shows rangebound activity, and if the European Session trends away, it usually - but not always - retraces back to the US close of the prior day.

I tend to agree, the volume isn't there, unless there's an 8:30am EST news release or something.

As for the markets being rangebound, yeah, you could fade Bollinger extremes from globex close to London open most days pretty well.

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