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Factor of N


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Factor of N

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  #11 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Eric j View Post
The LTF bias is still long on EU and three signals triggered today . The 1st one was a nice runner, the 2nd was handily stopped out and the third is still capitulating ( it did produce close to 1/1 risk though ) . So far the signals > 1100 EST are mostly dogs and it wouldnt be a bad idea to play them tight or skip them altogether.

What are the "Switch" markers on your chart? What is switching to what, and why?

This is a timely thread since in my next Meetup we are going to talk about trading with multiple time frames and these sort of considerations we need to consider (what proportion to use, what are good higher time frame oscillators to use, etc)

FYI, I implemented an Elder Impulse strategy some time ago that is available for download.

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  #12 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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The LTF bias changed to bearish as of the close of the 0100 EST bar this morning . The 1st retracement on the 15 min. didnt trigger ( no ORB below the low ) but the 2nd retracemnet produced a nice runner . I would call it a day after that one + > 100 pips potential in one shot . Technically , there was another upbar - downbar sequence to trigger an add on to the short if youre so inclined to take that sort of thing .

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  #13 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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shodson View Post
What are the "Switch" markers on your chart? What is switching to what, and why?

This is a timely thread since in my next Meetup we are going to talk about trading with multiple time frames and these sort of considerations we need to consider (what proportion to use, what are good higher time frame oscillators to use, etc)

FYI, I implemented an Elder Impulse strategy some time ago that is available for download.

Switch bar = bearish , a downbar (0) closing below an upbar (1) , inverse for switch to bullish .
Switch pattern = bearish , a downbar (0) closing below an upbar (n) , inverse for bullish

For a switch pattern I like to see it complete within 2 or 3 bars . I just keep track of these on the longer timeframes mostly because they precede turning points . Yup I saw your download and thanks for that . Im in an IBD meetup group , nice folks , mostly daydreamers , retired and bored and Cramer fans LOL .

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  #14 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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The switch bar and pattern presented itself 3 times recently . All are in whats described in this thread as the retracement zone ( albeit on the LTF here ) but I do notice the 2nd comfirms the double top and the 3rd confirms the head and shoulders . Theres no denying this pattern is a heads up that a trend is weakening and is a credible tool for forcasting turns .

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  #15 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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3 for 4 that achieved >1/1 risk on the signals that triggered today .

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  #16 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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An alternate to overall trend established via the MACD AVG slope on the 240 min. EU is possible by following the direction in which price last closed . Close below the prior session low ( bear bias ) or close above the prior session high ( bullish ) .

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 Big Mike 
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Eric j View Post
3 for 4 that achieved >1/1 risk on the signals that triggered today .

Nicely done.

Mike

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  #18 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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Thanks Mike . My goal is to find a way to use multiple timefames to my advantage . It makes a lot of sense that if you can quantify an overall tilt or preference then you can lean that way in your trading . Then it makes sense that by consistently quantifying a pullback against that bias and then entering the direction of the bias using sensible MM you can create an edge with positive expectency . Manual backtesting of this strategy shows me that taking profits at 1/1 risk produces an overall profit , over time and only if used the same way every time , no balking , flinching or hesitating .

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  #19 (permalink)
 shodson 
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So I'm still not quite sure how you're entering on your LTF. If the HTF is long, and LTF MACD < 0, how do you decide if you take a green bar on the LTF? The LTF MACD starts rising towards 0? Or is it something else like an engulfing reversal? None of my guesses seem consistent with your charts.

Just curious...

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  #20 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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shodson View Post
So I'm still not quite sure how you're entering on your LTF. If the HTF is long, and LTF MACD < 0, how do you decide if you take a green bar on the LTF? The LTF MACD starts rising towards 0? Or is it something else like an engulfing reversal? None of my guesses seem consistent with your charts.

Just curious...

The LTF ( longer timeframe , the 240 min. ) Macd histogram needs only to be <> zero to define the trend . The STF ( shorter timeframe , the 15 min. ) Macd histogram needs to be retracing agaist the trend for a setup to occur . Macd histogram and Macd avg. slope is the same thing . Btw , the position of the Macd line <> zero has no bearing on anything here .

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