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Factor of N
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Created: by Eric j Attachments:190

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Factor of N

  #151 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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The RSI is guiding the way tonite .

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  #152 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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Im bullish so far today . In actuality its a retracement up in a downtrend so what Im doing is following the immediate trend not necessarily the major trend . I see a trendline break from yesterday and Id bet that 3900ish and a return to the underside of that old trendline will see the downtrend continue . Never gambled except for trading not even the lottery so I guess its calculated risks that appeal to me and I am a gambler . Being somone that believes in Mark Douglas' teachings I see gambling and trading as the same in that to succeed at these endeavours you have to be a probabilities thinker and think in terms of probabilities not possibilities over a large enough sample to gauge what any given edge is capable of offering . Its the repetative sampling thats the hard part .

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  #153 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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Not likely to see another credible signal so Ill close it down while on top . 4 winners + 72 pips today . The 930 bar closed 1/10th of a pip lower than the 915 bar so that voids it as a benchmark , woulda been another 27 pips in the bag but I cant pay my bills with wouldas or couldas .

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  #154 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received


Eric j View Post
. . I see a trendline break from yesterday and Id bet that 3900ish and a return to the underside of that old trendline will see the downtrend continue .

Maybe the "C" is forming to short ? , lesse what happens .

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  #155 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received

3 losers today - 85 pips . Trade 1 touched the target and didnt trade through , trade 2 was 1 pip from the target . Filters that ive used in the past such as moving the stop when (x) pips from the target have only cut winners short for me but would have saved some grief today - thats spilled milk now . Thursday and unemployment are wreaking (slight) havoc on me and accounts for >30% of the losses every week so far . So far though the changes I made as of monday have provided for more winning signals , too early to tell how theyll affect the long haul but Im trying to balance the negatives out for now. Still up for the week and without the changes would be down about 75 pips at this point .

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  #156 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received

2 losers 1 winner friday -24 pips in a directionless market . The caveat when trading a trendfollowing method is if price doesnt follow through much then you are left at the station once in a while .

Since I made changes recently I hesitate to make another one now . Seeing thursday and fridays action from a few different angles I have to consider if moving the stop to B.E. when price is 75% towards the target is proper . I should get a grip on past experience with filtering and MM and just do it but Ill think it over and make sure to get perspective first . Want to be proactive not reactive thats all .

Be back monday , have a nice restful weekend all .

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Last edited by Eric j; October 23rd, 2010 at 08:15 AM.
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  #157 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received

3 winners 3 losers today -3 pips . NEWS - Fs things up everytime and makes currencies tough some days . Just gentle Ben opening his mouth can whipsaw all your analysis , tomorrows another day .

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  #158 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received

Tue 10/26 -

3 winners 3 losers today -3 pips . Im disapointed that data is an issue with ninja because I cant display historical data without using esignal or in general paying to have historical data when I should be able to just display it . I have to record all the data as I go and if theres a gap or blip like around rollover Im out of luck to have the scale needed to establish a 3 line break . I hate the merry go round with platforms I just want to have what I need and go about my business - end rant .

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  #159 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received

2 winners 1 loser today + 18 pips . Props to Mike for warning against multiple changes at once , getting bit on the ass on one of them not fatal but I think of what Mike said every time it gets in my way .

note to self ...
Listen to Mike .

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  #160 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received


4 winners 1 loser today + 48 pips . First thursday in the black in 3 months I believe . The market here didnt flinch on the unemployment news like usual .

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