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Factor of N


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Factor of N

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  #141 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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3 losers 1 winner today -21 pips for factor of 16. 1.4000 was some pretty hard resistance and the bulls were barely held back but by time they got a foothold the minor damage was done . Was a good day to stay focused .

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  #142 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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Didnt expect all this to go down so quick but Im not gonna complain . The RSI swing break wrapped around the 50 level and broke out from a rectangle pattern . The US dollar just cant catch a break .

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  #143 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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2 losers that ran out of time and got cut off in the dead zone - 40 pips . There hasnt been a winning thursday yet so when I revamp this with the other tweaks I have ready that may come into play . At least Im making money with my other regime and not getting clobbered with this , BUT this serves to teach me much about patience .

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  #144 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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1 winner 1 loser today -25 pips . So ends a drawdown week for this method -145 pips net . The ironic part is that monday in theory had 75 pips worth of potential profit during the prescribed trading period but during a US bank holiday - too bad .Its been booming and busting since september and since the nagging bullishness began in earnest . Perhaps some sideways action will fare better for factor of 16 , time will tell and will take the good with the not so good .

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  #145 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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"Pay the price of dicipline or pay the price of regret" -
Jeff Quinto

What that statement means to me is you can either plan your actions and then follow through with them or you can make up rules as you go along and hope for the best . Being diciplined means knowing yourself and your weakness' and mapping out how you will deal with any events that could happen beforehand so theres few or no surprises to rob you of focus and derail your goals . Every successful business person I ever met always has a plan each and every day and they follow the plan so they can see things clearly and exploit all opportunities . The business people Ive seen that didnt have a structured plan never lasted very long so its an assumption by me that planning is part of success .

So here Ive been paying the price of dicipline for 3 months with this method and overall its on the green side +225 pips per month as of last friday . Thats playing out the variables the same way as prescribed in the plan with no flinching .

While doing my thing when trading I always take notes , save screenshots , journal here and my personal journal and am always paying attention as best I can . Those things help me to find weakness and strength in the method and by playing the same variables the same way day after day without flinching I can make changes objectively and thats what I have in store for this method .

I see instances every day of opportunities that dont necessarily respect any trend direction or overall tide or bias . In hindsight its crystal clear when to trade these signals but in a live arena I always seem to be standing in front of the train and realize after the fact that I shouldnt have done that or shoulda had held 3 pips longer or all sorts of shouldas and couldas .

Its only when standing back and reading the tides direction and then watching for the wave to get me long when the tides rising and short when the tides falling do I feel any synergy with the market . So in other words good luck to those that can trade trend reversals or countertrend because you my friend are the true market master but it dont work for me .

A few changes are in order for this method for the following reasons .....
1. A need to avoid overextended entries .
2. Preserving legitimate signals .
3. Identify when to take profits .
4. Avoiding the news quagmire .
5. Identify the direction of strength .
6. Respecting psychological levels .

So the changes are as follows .....
1. The entry price must be < ATR (21) from a SMA(9) on the shorter timeframe .
2. If price closes above a short benchmarks its voided or closes below a long benchmark its voided .
3. If a price bar achieves > ATR (21) in height in the trades direction tighten the stop .
4. No entries on news bars .
5. Longer timeframe bias = a candles real body below SMA(5) bias is short and a candles real body above SMA(5) bias is long .
6. If price must cross a 00 level to reach the target pass on the trade .

Price < ATR(21) from SMA(9) or better (above the SMA for short ,below the SMA for long) ensures that profit potential isnt very spent . A long benchmark seeing a LL but not being closed below is still a legit buy signal , just a little tested by the bears , vice versa for a short benchmark . A wide range bar in the trades direction usually signals some exhaustion so being ready to capture those profits is good money management . News , the red flag kind , has a way of softening the edge to the extent of rendering it a tossup . 3LB has a weakness that I cant blame on it but blame on me because the closing prices on my data affects 3LB drastically when gaps or anomalies around rollover exist and it picks those closes up as false reversals . If I can maintain a more flawless data stream to monitor 3LBs then its first in line to call the bias . I do monitor 2 different charts from 2 different dealers so I can detect any major flaws but the ninja feed is MB and theres no historical data on ninja so whats there is recorded first . An entry too close to a 00 level usually sees some reaction and compromises the trades ability to reach the target .

Thasit , so I think that I used my notes , dicipline and consistency well and made some changes that will help to increase my average winners and maximize profitability - time will tell .

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  #146 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Eric, good post, and good job with your journal and you have the pips to prove it . Personally I would caution against changing too many things at once. You may wish to consider implementing just two changes every two weeks, and be sure to grade yourself on the implementation and execution of these changes on a daily basis.

Mike

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  #147 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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Thanks Mike . All the changes are small tweaks designed to avoid the biggest pitfalls but you are right about not performing an overhaul all at once . Ive been watching for many weeks how these changes would perform so I only made the ones that already have been helping .

I didnt include rejection entries are also accepted provided that bars (1) and (2) are LHs for shorts and HLs for longs .

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  #148 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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2 winners 1 loser today +30 pips . Note to self ....

Range expansion / wide range exhaustion bars - Careful how you use them because WR bars can be a sign of strength or weaknes depending upon at which point they appear . WR bars acting as a launching pad are different than when price has been directional and the trend is taking its last breath ( or breadth ? lol ) . WR bars are like a loaded bazooka with a hair trigger , it can save you or kill you so use it carefully .

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  #149 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received

CCL bands with the ATR settings Im using .

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  #150 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received


2 winners 1 loser +17 pips today . Was able to trail the stop on trade 3 above the highs right to the target instead of closing it out at 1200 hrs since it was a few pips from the stop anyway so being patient payed off as usual .

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