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Factor of N


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Factor of N

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  #131 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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Jeffs BBands with default settings . Nice how fading the outer reaches produced IF a real body traded outside the outer band . One stopout out of four .

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  #132 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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Heres how the EU trendchannel and GC decending triangle are looking today . EU is like a well behaved dog staying in its yard just bouncing off its fence . GC is like a rabid dog thrashing around in need of its meds . GC is really not the best canditate for this kind of stuff it seems .

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  #133 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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2 cancellations and 1 passed on benchmark today - no trades . Good thing too since the bearish move was already in before my trading hours began . After 2 weeks of lateral equity curve I put +90 pips net on the bottom line .

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  #134 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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Journalling is my favorite tool for plotting my progress as a trader . I know that Mike advises a lot of people to do this and obviously the smart ones take his advice and realize then that they didnt have to shell out big $$$$ to propel themselves as a trader and the less smart ones dont and fade away - too bad . Its a given that other people will read your stuff and you have divulged what your up to and some argue that your edge is going to be invalidated because everyone will trade against it . Seriously , do you think Stevie Cohen is huddling with his minions to plot against you ?

Anyway thats how I feel and I get a lot out of journalling . While going over my weeks worth of efforts after the cutoff on friday I replay the data and look for things I might have missed and maybe didnt take note of while I was sitting and watching the market . I usually have a few pages of scribbling that I boil down and keep the useful stuff and look for things that are repeated by me and give them some focus time .

This is whats been coming up for a while now and since Ive got time to focus today ( I try not to think "market" on the weekend ) here tis .

Simply put these are "areas" to short from and thats it . I only zeroed in on the one day so far but I have tons of past data to divine these ares from and fortify my theory . So what Im seeing is the 3LB defining bearish conditions then price trading above the high of the last bar creating a retracement against the downmove and thereby identifying an "area" in which to look for shorts . My reasoning is that whatever bulls are challenging the bears , in an already bearish arena , are now showing their hand and the next sign of bearishness on the shorter timeframe should take out those bulls . This isnt a revelation in trading but for me its something I didnt focus on so much .

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  #135 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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https://www.atf-forex-trading.com/media/uploads/ATF-2010-closed-positions.pdf

I was online this morning and stumbled on this . These are results from a signal service I never heard of but looks interesting as far as what an equity curve might look like .

Have a nice weekend all .

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  #136 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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No factor of N today but I tried the decending triangle with the trend . Shoulda held out for the 162% level .

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  #137 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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While Im watching for setups Im reviewing a few months worth of data with a different oscillator for the shorter timeframes retracement definition . Since closing prices are what I see as one of the few definites in trading then RSI is a potentially better tool than Macd . Its faster and more responsive and Ive got enough experience with it to have confidence in it . One thing that a change has to bring to the table is an ability to capture more profits and assist in MM efficiently , not just being a lateral move . I see RSI as something with "vertical" power , it gives info in its levels . As close price changes and theres a shift in the relation between higher to lower closes I consider that vital information that Macd isnt necessarily prepared to give up .

The factor is also likely to be changed to 5 . As I learn more about 3LB it appears that a narrower window can benefit efficiency since the more close prices are available per session the more effective 3LB is at defining a trend or lack of .

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  #138 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received

Was just one of them days today . 3 losers 1 winner -49 pips . Gotta give back back once in a while if you want to play the game . I did grab a little on the 5 min. so it was not so bad at all .

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  #139 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received

This is what I mean by RSI levels being a sign that strength or weakness is present . Simply , RSI forms swing levels as price retraces up or down and those swing levels not holding is a signal itself . Combining this screenshots event of an RSI swing low being closed below during a bearish condition makes the signal powerful . The same event occurs 4 bars before the red elipse in the screenshot .

Trendline breaks are credible as well although Im finding the RSI swings being breached easier to quantify objectively .

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  #140 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received


Heres another example in real time . Bullish condition , close above RSI swing high and good form heading into resistance .

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