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Factor of N
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Created: by Eric j Attachments:190

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Factor of N

  #121 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
In terms of probability, maybe yes.

But the trend channel will end at one point and the descending triangle can easily breakout to the downside.

To me thats what makes patterns like these so untradeable (for me). I sure do like to spot them and even make all the measurements and fib ratios line up but I cant trade them . How many harmonic patterns get called out in real time and followed through ? I like to watch Surinotes dring the day and think hes brilliant but how many times does a gartley or ABC follow through ? Looks like no more than 50% to me . That doesnt diminish anyones technical prowess Im just talking about useability as a signal .

I do see useability (for me) in variations of ABC pattern . I say variation because for me if I find

1. Price closing beyond a recent swing level , showing there is a change in power and take heed .
2. Price retracing and it could be any % as long as it makes sense in regards to SR and symmetry .
3. Price forming a flag / trendline that I can quantify as "if it closes beyond this" I have an entry .

If I was to write a textbook about how to draw a trend channel that EU 4 hr. channel would be on the cover .

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  #122 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
To me thats what makes patterns like these so untradeable (for me). I sure do like to spot them and even make all the measurements and fib ratios line up but I cant trade them . How many harmonic patterns get called out in real time and followed through ? I like to watch Surinotes dring the day and think hes brilliant but how many times does a gartley or ABC follow through ? Looks like no more than 50% to me . That doesnt diminish anyones technical prowess Im just talking about useability as a signal .

I do see useability (for me) in variations of ABC pattern . I say variation because for me if I find

1. Price closing beyond a recent swing level , showing there is a change in power and take heed .
2. Price retracing and it could be any % as long as it makes sense in regards to SR and symmetry .
3. Price forming a flag / trendline that I can quantify as "if it closes beyond this" I have an entry .

If I was to write a textbook about how to draw a trend channel that EU 4 hr. channel would be on the cover .

I just used a simple linear regression channel.

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  #123 (permalink)
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> 3800 is no mans land lesee what happens , if it closes < 3800 Ill give in .

Edit - -7 pips , was worth a try .

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Last edited by Eric j; October 5th, 2010 at 11:08 AM.
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  #124 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
I just used a simple linear regression channel.

That was gonna be chapter 5 .

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  #125 (permalink)
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2 for 2 today for factor of 16 + 48 pips .

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  #126 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
EU and its textbook uptrend channel and GCs decending triangle . Both should go up right ?

Heres how they look today . Id say the EU did its thing and the GC is still behaving like it could close above the upper trendline and do a moonshot .

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  #127 (permalink)
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Ill assume thats it for signals before the dead zone today . 1 signal +26 pips today .

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  #128 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
Heres how they look today . Id say the EU did its thing and the GC is still behaving like it could close above the upper trendline and do a moonshot .

Heres how they look today . EU managed to hit 162% so I would call that a good trade . GC sure looks like it closed above the uppertrendline so if it trades above that bar its triggered long . It did however break the symmetry of the decending triangle a little first . GC is a really slippery one and tends to be a tough one to nail down so if you can make money with this sucker you got it made imho .

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Factor of N-eurusd-10_7_2010-240-min-.jpg   Factor of N-update-closeup-eu.jpg   Factor of N-gbpchf-10_7_2010-240-min-update.jpg  
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  #129 (permalink)
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Well , Im first in line to point out when Im off base . Decending triangle could be a reversal BUT is considered generally to be a continuation - my bad . Im outside my circle so its good to study these things and mistakes are a good way to learn so maybe GC IS a textbook decending triangle .

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Another thrash zone thursday . 2 winners 1 loser +5 pips . Notice how the "blocks" on the LTFs 3LB chart form SR zones that get some sort of attention , I.E around 1000-1030ish here .

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