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Factor of N


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Factor of N

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  #91 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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2 winers 2 losers + 1 pip today . The dangling tails reaching below support provided the stopouts . Good reason to keep the stops nice and clear of the swing levels , mine were too tight .

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Can you help answer these questions
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  #92 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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1 loser 3 winners today +36 pips . Still looking like Ill implement the newer version next week because the backtests look good so far , just need to make time to sit down with it to really focus and finish .

The reasons why I would change anything is .....

Weakness - The Macd is kinda lazy and Ive found a tool with a little quicker and more consistent response .
Consistency - Just are better tools out there to define an entry objectively the same way every single time .

Believe it or not Ive found that bar patterns are as weak or weaker than the garden variety indicator or oscillator . Pin bars , candle formations , inside bars , outside bars , key reversal bars , wide range bars , long wicks , long tails , dojis , hammers , spinning tops etc. etc. all work when they work but dont provide more likelyhood of a winning trade than an algorithm . This is based on a lot of screen time and testing by yours truly . Thats not to say that "price action " isnt a key part of a trade because it is but in the context of defining when a pullback is likely to end and price is likely to continue in the trends direction an algo works better or at least equally well as price bar patterns .

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  #93 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received


3 winners 1 loser today +54 pips (0630 was a cancellation) . The 2nd trades stop was too tight obviously (now in hindsight) . The prior swing level makes sense now so note to self - dont do that , the trades with breathing room tend to work pretty well so dont be afraid of a wider stop .

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  #94 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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Trading: Currencies
 
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3 winners and 1 trade still open today . IF the open trade hits the target its + 119 pips for today if not its -6 pips for today , time will tell .

Edit - Thats -6 pips for today . Looks like the upmove is unravelling a bit before the fri. news .

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  #95 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
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2 losers today - 91 pips , Ouch ! The Macd picked up the bearishness @ 1300 too little too late . The 3 bar break picked it up @ 0900 and would have saved me from the 2nd stopout . Following the plan through thick and thin sucks some days but in the big picture and overall it saves me grief .

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  #96 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Eric j View Post
2 losers today - 91 pips , Ouch ! The Macd picked up the bearishness @ 1300 too little too late . The 3 bar break picked it up @ 0900 and would have saved me from the 2nd stopout . Following the plan through thick and thin sucks some days but in the big picture and overall it saves me grief .

Do you have an excel workbook or anything showing the bigger picture status, like how much your average winning day is vs your average losing day, and the percentage of winning days vs percentage of losing days?

I think that if you know these stats, you can sleep well at night on days like this, so long as the stats demonstrate an edge and make sense.

Mike

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  #97 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received


Big Mike View Post
Do you have an excel workbook or anything showing the bigger picture status, like how much your average winning day is vs your average losing day, and the percentage of winning days vs percentage of losing days?

I think that if you know these stats, you can sleep well at night on days like this, so long as the stats demonstrate an edge and make sense.

Mike

I do have the stats from manual backtesting and the live results began a few weeks ago . The only #s I have are these and although I plan to keep it all on a spreadsheet I havent thusfar . I always kept track of everything on paper so thats what Im used to and the average day sees an average of 2.5 trades so its possible to keep all the #s organized . Im trading all the signals that fall in the 0100 - 1100 EST time period without a max loss limit and profit goal because I want to see the edge played out . Fundamantally I believe in a goal and loss limit but I feel that would make measuring this mechanical methods edge impossible . The average losing day is -30 pips and the average winning day is +19 pips . Starting 7/12/10 thats 43 win days and 6 lose days +817 pips and -180 pips (49 days) . I trade tiny units so I can keep the risk on each trade close to 1.5% and my objective is to be able to consistently come out ahead and then apply leverage accordingly in proportion to equity . Ive always believed in this theory , that if you can gain X amount of ticks or pips or % each day or week then its left up to leverage to amplify your paycheck . Ive seen this theory promoted by the likes of jeff quinto , al brooks and big mike himself .

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  #98 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received

2 winners 1 loser today +21 pips . The 3 line break is picking up the bullishness now and tends to be stronger at picking up an early trend shift so far .

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  #99 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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9/21/10 Tuesday -

2 winners 1 loser today +9 pips . The 3 line break had the strength pinned down long before the Macd . Today was a reminder that staying with the trade because Im following the rules is a noble cause but Fed day > 1100 EST the odds are 50/50 and the edge is null . Therefore holding trade 2 today was a tossup and I never win at tossups , only lose .

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  #100 (permalink)
 Eric j 
NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Trading: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,396 given, 2,576 received


2 winners today + 62 pips .

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