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2020 vision st.


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2020 vision st.

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  #1 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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[INTRO]

the goal is to plan higher probability trades. the arsenal:

[ONE]
oscillator that throws out early signals -----> to avoid late exit

[TWO]
multiple checks on entry/exit -----> to avoid false signals

[THREE]
high/low range via volume profile -----> to avoid buying high and selling low

[FOUR]
ATR for sizing, to control risk -----> to adjust to the volatility

[FIVE]
volume based buy/sell pressure -----> to confirm entry with trend

[SIX]
order flow imbalance via NT8 -----> to provide an auction snapshot

[SEVEN]
patience -----> trust in the process, look ahead and plan

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  #3 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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The process: Entry


Within the long term trend, exists the short term.

As such, the short term (ST) tails the long term (LT) trend.

Whether continuation or reversal, confirmation of LT initiates a ST entry.


For example, an upward LT seeks a low-side ST entry (buy low).

Likewise, a downward LT finds high-side ST sells favorable.

Identifying the LT is the basis for position initiation.


Due to the shorter time frame, there are fewer hiccups in ST.

This allows the position to be managed more precisely, nimbly.

A favorable ST initiation may offer room for further entries.



The process: Exit


LT may range or extend, due to a higher time frame.

The range condition seeks reversals (lower highs, higher lows).

The extension forms pullbacks (higher highs, lower lows).


In either case, the ST provides an early signal.

The range signals a favorable close on the ST.

And the extension, a ST pullback for further entries.


Here, fib extensions can provide helpful targets.

Above all, close positions when LT ends.

The ST offers advance warning here.



The process: Holding


There may be pause or ranging prior to continuation.

LT still holds, but ST may provide further entry/exit.

The price action can help determine the level of certainty here.


For example, unknown risk prior to a news event.

Tight ranges will eventually expand with a decisive bias.

Confirmation of the LT once again initiates a ST entry.



Process summary:


LT confirmation and patience can avoid early action.

ST provides a favorable actionable signal.

Pivots, ranges and such may also help provide prudent targets.


There is no shame though in closing when in doubt.

As the next opportunity will present itself.

Avoid the chase. Look around. Patience.

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  #4 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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Recently, I implemented a more mechanical system to describe the above strategy. Most parts are customized intraday strategies.

There are three conditions - buy, sell and no position. This is why an anti-buy condition would not necessarily always produce a sell strategy.

Although this is not automated or an algorithm that runs trades, the system is able to provide a snapshot of the market. Before this, some time was needed to analyze the strategies before providing a market summary.

The added simplicity allows me to focus on the method and wait for the system to generate information. Granted, this method is not completely blinded, but doubled checked with the original signals.

The exit condition is the nullification of the current condition after the bar close. After some time, a trailing stop should be implemented to capture profit.

This method needs back testing in current market conditions like today and ranges - Perhaps also during high volume news events to see what else might break.

Prior to implementation, the discretionary trading has been spotty. Although today, with the large movement, I captured a handful of points, I would like to gain confidence in the system.

A longer term wish would be to fully program and back test with large data sets to really check the robustness. There seem to be many parts to build such a system as well as time separate failures from bugs.

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  #5 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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So, basically there is a fork or division of conditions to range or trend. And, this system signals for trends.

On mostly range days like today, these entry signals are short-lived. This can throw a false entry signal if late on the jump.

To filter, another filter has been added to check for a range condition. Unfortunately, the trend condition is less frequent.

I can imagine how trend traders might hop in with size on trends, furthering the condition.

The signals will light up fully for a trend, but by default a range condition will prevail.

-------------------------

Hmm, So I re-read the above and saw something now in italics.

The system does signal trends correctly, even temporary trends in a range-like condition.

This means that in a lower time frame would be suitable. The quick execution of an automated strategy would be able to pick this up.

For now, something to keep in mind. Also, a higher time frame perspective might also make the a ranged time frame look like a small pause.

Alas, there are time limitations in day trades, but swing traders might have more freedom here, though there is added holding risk with duration.

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  #6 (permalink)
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Interesting.....

What defines LT confirmation for you?

And for Fib extensions, how are you determining what levels are relevant? Previous movements, measured moves, etc?

Thanks

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  #7 (permalink)
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handspin View Post
So, basically there is a fork or division of conditions to range or trend. And, this system signals for trends.

...

The system does signal trends correctly, even temporary trends in a range-like condition.

This means that in a lower time frame would be suitable. The quick execution of an automated strategy would be able to pick this up.

This is an issue with every trend-following method or system: there are both trends and not-trends, and the not-trends will kill you, when your objective is to get into a trend and hold it. The range reverses just about then the trend would have started.

You can always go to a lower timeframe, but you may find that the same trend/range phenomenon exists there, too.

I wish you success in this, but be aware of the issues. They are basic to the choice of using a trend-following approach. "If I could just not trade during these ranges" has been said, with feeling, by trend traders for a very long time. (And I include myself here . )

I won't suggest an answer because I don't have one yet. I should point out that a pure system approach has some pluses, in that trade executions are always according to the rules, but also that a totally rules-based approach means that you have to have all the possible variations already figured out and incorporated into the rules. Which is something else that is intrinsic to the basic choices that have been made, this time in going for a system instead of a discretionary approach. (Pure discretionary traders face their own issues, and still have the trend/range one.)

Good luck. I hope you manage these issues successfully.

Bob.

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  #8 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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Maelstrom View Post
Interesting.....

What defines LT confirmation for you?

And for Fib extensions, how are you determining what levels are relevant? Previous movements, measured moves, etc?

Thanks

NP, Thanks for the reply.

LT can be daily/hourly but is not practical for a day trade. This does not discount the utility of the LT effect on day trades, however. A strong LT signal will override any ST signal and should be considered the main signal, like a strong current. And honestly, the daily, weekly, etc. as well.

I move to a lower time frame that allows room for a day trade - basically how long are you willing to wait for the trade to develop. A patient, borderline swing day trader can hold for hours, but with the random news, sometimes even 5 minutes is a while.

For this reason, I also use ticks as a frame, I can time how long it takes for a tick cycle to complete and use that as a basis for a time frame as well.



The most immediate HI/LO on the day is the extension. This comes from the section in the elliot wave book that caught my eye on measured moves. I do not count waves, but liked the extension idea there.

AJ Frost, Robert Prechter - Elliot Wave Principle, p 72-5, Chapter 21, Wave Multiples.

I found a link to download the PDF

There are a lot of rules in the book, I just took away one idea, that a pullback can be used as a measured target for an extension. This is interesting because, you can wait for the pullback cycle to complete, and get in at any level during the previous pullback and set a target for the previous high, and a second target at extension.

This also implies that a larger pullback would offer a larger extension.

Retraces are also interesting, someone AKA TTMcGee on stocktwits observed CL algos tend to complete 50% retraces. This does not mean that an immediate entry should be at the 50% retrace, but one can allow expectations for something similar. The issue here is that once CL stops trending, sometimes the trend does not restart with the expected extension in the same day at least.

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  #9 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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bobwest View Post
This is an issue with every trend-following method or system: there are both trends and not-trends, and the not-trends will kill you, when your objective is to get into a trend and hold it. The range reverses just about then the trend would have started.

You can always go to a lower timeframe, but you may find that the same trend/range phenomenon exists there, too.

I wish you success in this, but be aware of the issues. They are basic to the choice of using a trend-following approach. "If I could just not trade during these ranges" has been said, with feeling, by trend traders for a very long time. (And I include myself here . )

I won't suggest an answer because I don't have one yet. I should point out that a pure system approach has some pluses, in that trade executions are always according to the rules, but also that a totally rules-based approach means that you have to have all the possible variations already figured out and incorporated into the rules. Which is something else that is intrinsic to the basic choices that have been made, this time in going for a system instead of a discretionary approach. (Pure discretionary traders face their own issues, and still have the trend/range one.)

Good luck. I hope you manage these issues successfully.

Bob.

Thanks Bob, yes the existential crisis of the trend/range.

This is interesting because by nature, I revert and traded ranges initially. The reason stems from starting out trying to chase breakouts when oftentimes price reacted in a range.

And then once in a while, a trend started destroying a range approach.

Very disheartening if you have to keep having to discern between apples and oranges.

----------------

This seems to suggest a hybrid approach, to use a ranged-trending system that is both systematic and discretionary.. if only things were so universal.. but the middle ground approach might be better than going to extremes.

So the immediate issue to resolve is to identify trend quality.

A range is also a trend, it is one that does not move much within the time frame.

And a strong trend is on the other end, A+ 100%, maybe even 200% like a flash crash.


If one imagines the order flow in such cases, the bid or offer is very one sided, imbalanced.

During the overnight Tuesday (Jan 7) the bids were hit with size, and very little on the offer.

But even this downtrend was preceded by a pull back, nothing moves completely vertically.

Which suggests that even trending patterns contain ranges.


The danger here is that a range trader might see a reversal and enter too early.

Something should say, hey, wait a minute, this is still trending strong, please wait.


So, perhaps an attempt to use a range trading approach, while eyeing trend quality may help.

For example, one waits for the low, and then finds trend confirmation supporting entry.

The quality of the trend might also help for exit, but whether price holds in the original range or an extension, the concept of the range still holds throughout.

And the range concept is really just, buy low, sell high in essence. This does not mean attempting to pick bottoms, but enter after the trend quality stops in one direction and picks up in the other. Usually this ends up being somewhere in the early-mid range of the move, with the trader usually kicking themselves for not getting in earlier in hindsight. Which, is probably better than kicking themselves for taking risk/heat from getting in too early.

This range/trend struggle will persist, but my reversion tendencies and frequency of ranges treat my developing trend system as a method to quantify trendiness while continuing to the reversion approach.

In this case, trend quality would suggest not reversing a strong trend, and possibly maintain holding a position that is trending. This is an advantage of reversion trading, the risk taken from a reversal is rewarded by obtaining a favorable position in the event of a developing trend - already bought low or sold high.

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  #10 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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just adding a quip, reading some livermore while I test strats. chapter 5, the semisucker rule - don't be a sucker. and basically how? become a sucker and do the things that suckers do, until you no longer do them.

the jumpiness of nasdaq is no longer of interest and throw off signals. until there is a filter, the instrument is no longer of interest.

observing a double tap that is more prominent and extended in nasdaq, this jumpiness might be useful actually, and should not be filtered, but the spikes do provide early signals (which might be useful)

deciding to use the second test as an extra warning, an attempt to take continuation is low probability here. basically, you get two outs, but on the third one, you strike out.

this is actually valuable, as the first warning can serve as the first target and the second, the close. this prevents early exit and also temptation to retake a position due to lack of position.

the third test may not actually strike out. in fact, a successful third test resumes the trend and should be considered a breakout. so maybe the first warning sets the initial stop, the second a target, leaving the third to be ridden out.

now realizing that taps are actually divergences and the counts can move further. this is more clear on the nasdaq so the jumpiness may actually be an advantage.

this concept is now morphing into a dual wave pattern, where initial entry provides the early wave risk and secures a position that allows adding into a second wave. the second wave amplitude is unknown and initial entry in the second wave is mid-late, so having a secured position here is advantageous.

also, have tuned strat to more comfortably trade ranges. in the event of an actual trend, the entry from range would provide continuation. strong trends might afford entry, but ranges seem to provide best risk entries.

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  #11 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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Not really a direct indicator, but having GC, CL, another index in the mix is useful for direction. Focusing on one instrument is a narrow view.

For example, 7/17/19, at open, NQ climbs, while ES, CL drop and GC rises. Again, indirect and semi-correlated, but a definite visual on something mis-aligned.

From the previous post, on the double tap, the moving average seems to be a touch point. A failure to cross indicates a second wave in progress for a reversal, testing the range boundary. A cross seems to invalidate the second wave and allows further room for continuation or range extension. From an order flow standpoint, some may use the moving average for entry. A cross-over might run stops, attract later entries, etc. while price that forms the second wave would find exhaustion due to lack of further entries during the second wave from lack of cross-over at the moving average.

Using the above method, a measured 50% retrace should not cross-over the moving average. If so, the second wave is likely invalidated. This creates an entry midway and also implies an extension from the retrace for a second wave target. Finally, due to nature of the second wave, this also becomes a possible first wave entry for reversal.

Here, I am not sure if this creates a measurable move on a longer time frame since the utility of this fib crosses over the trading day. For a swing trade overnight, this may be a useful tool for estimating the next wave series. One weird possibility to check this is to use a smaller time frame and see if this might provide a similar fractal move.

Unfortunately, trying this seems to create confusion as now there are fibs within fibs to measure, but the waves seem to play out - a strong 5 wave with a 3 retrace followed by another 5 wave, all of this smaller time frame mess creating the 3 wave at a longer time frame.

Somehow this might be the mechanic behind formation of HH HL or LL and LH, but seeing the highs and lows is easier, though not predictably quantifiable this way, more reactionary. If one looks carefully, each leg seems to get filled out, drawing scribbles through the fib ladder. This filling tendency pulls in the moving average, and solidifies a level as support or resistance.

Options people get to do their thing, trades get filled, stuff gets swept through during these pauses. And day traders fall asleep, then walk away the moment the action spurts back and freak out with a late entry, get eaten by a retrace, closing the last moment as stops get hit, and the trend continues as they were accurate but imprecise with their entry. So more entries extend the trend until another pause ad nauseum, staring at the charts.

The pullback has to be sufficient to create an extension that breaks through a previous filling. A tailing candle may be a sign of stops getting hit, signaled by a strange order imbalance against the actual trend. The action may cause counter trend trade entries which also get stopped out adding fuel to the extension. In this way and with further late entries, the imbalance may get corrected with more filling before trending. A volume spike could be a useful signal to confirm such turns. Sometimes tails can be early tests of levels with an initial reaction, but returns to move back past the tested level, so caution is needed here.

There is a variation in cycles caused by a different pause. These seem to be final pushes that are eventually met with a reversal. What should be at least two waves morphs into a single push, ending in exhaustion. The consolidated pause also causes hesitation, wrong-sided bets and then a squeeze combined with late entries. The estimated move is uncertain here, price is in discovery mode. One may follow the bounce using the moving average here, and a cross beyond the average may be a sign of weakness. The wave count is thrown off, and late entries expecting a final push here may aid in the reversal. The magnitude of the push can also be estimated by the steepness of the moving average. Here, a parabolic move would greatly escape the moving average only to be met by a hard reversal. Or, a shallow move might become further compressed, but still result in a less violent culmination of a trend. The pull of a steeper move might be stronger on the average and imply a larger move in the opposite direction.

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  #12 (permalink)
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From previous, noticing the double taps and waves, some are more drawn out but they exist. The extended wave can be taken as a sign that the counter wave strength may be weaker. EWT would call out 5 wave vs 3 wave here, but I usually do not keep close count. Divergence happens at times, and a possible 5 wave count is just preparation or compression for a strong counter wave. Again, the differentiation is whether there is a moving average cross to bring in further entries to confirm the wave strength.

Looking at YM during these long stretches of highs, YM seems to complete ranges instead of continually pushing. YM is interesting because of the industrial factor, sometimes correlated with CL. YM pushed strongly from the low range alongside CL, while ES and NQ remained bid the whole time.

Going back to March 11, 2019 I saw RTY, ES, NQ all bid without pullback, but here YM offered an opportunity for entry at the low range, a laggard. Yesterday, 1/21/19 RTY was unbid and sold, at least YM responded in a wider range on both sides. Instead of attempting a continuation in NQ or ES, YM can provide a better entry. NQ and ES can remain proxies however, they are configured optimally for entry and exits.

Also looking back to YM on CL inventory Weds 10:30 ET, scanning for larger CL swings shows a light correlation but still stronger than the influence of CL on ES or NQ. $INDU and energy are a larger % of YM. RTY, ES and NQ all paused around inventory, but YM runs with CL more. For example an entry influenced by a CL dip might be more pronounced with YM. Then, perhaps ES has less CL influence and NQ has the least. So, on days where CL might be avoided, for example CL is pushing higher but indexes are falling, NQ might work, maybe RTY. RTY at this point is a bit strange, there are days with compression, while the other majors are moving, but YM is still an alternative to ES and NQ.

NQ seems like a dunk in big wave surfing. Big ride and turbulence, or maybe fast maneuvers on a short board, whereas ES is the paddle board out on open water, going with the tide and YM is the long board, cruising around, big easy. You know you are going to fall off the board before really catching the wave, but when NQ is right with you, there is no comparison. ES is still a snooze fest to watch on the DOM, all those sticky options, delta gamma and whatnot in the way. ES is the most in balance, there is less order flow imbalance. So, YM might be a good balance for now. Another way to put this is, you watch the big wave surfing going on the NQ good for entry and exit confirmation, perhaps ES is good for trend confirmation, because NQ whipsaw is not fun, and then YM as the actual ride itself. Not sure if this will really work, because watching ES, NQ and CL alongside YM might be a bit much.

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  #13 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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The wait and see method is active not passive, like hunting or fishing in a dynamic environment. Developing a bias or pre-entry sentiment, basically reasons not to be in. Until those conditions become favorable, entries are not really necessary. And moreover, if these sentiments change or the bias needs to be adjusted the entry has not been made, there is no commitment to cloud judgment. During a position, the bias should not be fixed as well, bias should be updated and kept in check.

For example, today in CL sentiment is still down though lower. The entry may not be the lowest or cheapest possible, but there is always cheaper. Until the bias changes, the waves and winds are not with a long entry. Basically, working off a sold environment. Another example is NQ, where downside conviction was cut short, but the upside movement was limited as well. Small clips and scalps might work, but there is turbulence, possibly a pause for earnings, uncertainly prevails. The CL bounce also pulled up YM, though the index still drags off S2. Tailing shows support, already tested twice on open and mid-day hourly. Some small conviction, but not enough boost.

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  #14 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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Interesting day, saw down wave develop at open after touching R1. There was a profile gap on the way to pivot that broke, hitting the next profile area and retracing. Trend continuation with a pause at pivot to S1, also another profile area. Continuation day suggests a drive lower toward S2, for a second down wave.

Corona viruses are pretty common, recovery is similar to flu. The ongoing containment and vigilance is a good sign. If so, then the S1 area and VPOC is a good settle. However, the lows still need to be re-tested.

Also interesting, volume is increasing through the day. S2 was touched, but seeing return to weekly VPOC for settle as the second wave is resolving selling pressure. Flows also confirm this and the steady pace rising is a good sign, some large bids. One thing is that earnings for major companies is yet to come, so there are some expectations built in to hold onto.

An interesting MLK gap in between S2 and S1 and also when S1 is breached on the first wave, the price seems to return back there after the second wave, washing out early buys and late sellers. With Fridays and options, fair price settlement might be the magnet. Close below S1 might be a sign of weakness, time to just watch the close, bias is neutral due to end of the week, closing out, etc. CNY.

Apparently, the year of the rat is the first animal in the zodiac cycle. The bubonic plague started in 1347, the year of the pig, which is the end of the cycle, continuing in the year of the rat. Kinda interesting that this corona virus "epidemic" started similarly, just coincidental. Bat/snake transmission possibilities?

This last part of the day is a bit harder, but the sell condition still exists, so these pullbacks are not reversals unfortunately, but the selling is abating, getting absorbed and resolving higher, pointing at S1. Selling condition almost resolved, but still weak at close under S1. The day has also generated large pivot points for the next session.

Things to correct: Made several positions, was early on the reversal, causing some pain. Saw early sell cycle but early exit during pullback and missed lunch time drop past pivot. Re-entered short for scalps only. Holding onto initial position would have allowed safer adds instead of scalps.

Things that helped: having another weekly profile and pivot points ready alongside. Waiting for confirmation of selling wave instead of trying to enter early and getting chopped up.

Additional observation: Following crude down was a leading sentiment. There was a pop up MLK weekend for CL that was continually driven down on news that should have responded higher - libya, EIA, etc. Also, gold and bonds are confirmatory, FX too. Risk off?

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  #15 (permalink)
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browsing around, found that the coronavirus is similar to SARS and a bit like MERS, with a bat source, bats seem to wreak havoc as incubators, ebola as well

the virus has to bind to a human receptor, and SARS infects stronger, MERS has a longer incubation time

if the receptor binding strength is related to incubation time, then SARS was worse

so back in 2003, SARS took a half year to resolve. if this coronavirus is weaker, and with the previous precautions already in place, would expect the fear to abate

the dot-com 2000-2 effect already in place, 2003 was a springboard for a rally and SARS may have had minimal effect

the current environment is different, tiptoeing, balancing act, but at least the fears do not compound yet

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  #16 (permalink)
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feels controlled, pre-FOMC, earnings. nothing in the corona virus narrative really changed. seems stuck, so out early. crude seems less finicky after having sold off. FOMC sentiment seems to be more risk off

there is jumpiness but strangely also contained, the profile returned to earlier months, hesitation in gold, reading about shifts in CTA hedges, etc. options getting re-positioned

today is a let things resolve day, digest and wait for the outcome since there is volume everywhere, some vol but less direction, any reason is as good as the next, Kobe RIP

still some upside but that would be returning to the clouds right now, would be healthier to recharge back on earth. feels like resistance to the upside for now but all is orderly

break to test lows would confirm but would also be a selling extreme to prime an upward cycle, while NKD might give better moves, HG and 6A not having fun either

6J balanced by 6E weakness or $DXY strength, but AUD/JPY risk off due to 6A, compressed VX GC ZN confirm the pause, weaker instruments returning confirms rebound

also interesting BTC moving, halvening, flagging, etc. targets of 20K but don't forget your wallet password

unable to sustain rallies, keeps testing lower but still in controlled fashion, re-adjustment, just staring at EU close, EU influence and close may be masking some risk

coronavirus also in EU, more of a world traveler than most unfortunately, scandal/conspiracy the source being from a canadian virus lab and covertly exported to china, would have to compare strains

price is sandwiched between lower profile and range but presses lower, pending high cycle, likely covering, pressing up slowly but matching downside hesitation, no conviction yet till S2 break

S2 proved to be resistance after testing a few times, each a weaker attempt, cannot clear S2, not enough yet to break through, retry after second wave dip to test lower mid-range, early buyers to be tested, flagging

avoiding late PM trades with FOMC and tech earnings if possible, today felt like an earnings rout, new lows in NKD

can long into down bias or sell and try to avoid spikes, either is kinda painful unless the hi-lo level is favorable

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  #17 (permalink)
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feeling like the virus events are delayed, after the fact, non-event instead of sell the news

already hitting pivot after flagging, double resistance with VWAP, delta turning again

would like a bigger pullback or dip to create a move to fill the weekend gap, S1, S2

the monthly profile returned back to range, wondering if another extension is feasible

area is rounding out, forming a bottoming pattern, resistance broke into next zone

large bids earlier on DOM, perhaps targeting R1 but then the gap is above that area

forgot about the other closed markets in asia that open later in the week

one interpretation is this is a retrace with YM having a larger pullback, larger flagging for S1, S2

approaching gap, GC down CL up, big delta, push extended, gap might resist

starts getting dangerous here, multi-day flag formation starting to form

6A, 6E and HG never made HH, ZN, 6J and NKD seem poised or coiled, something is wrong

reaction seems to be shrinking from gap, but delta needs to change

delta changing, break of R1, pivot points to S1, S2 from flag

weird pin bar in AAPL last close and another mid-month, pumpy earnings, calls outnumber puts 2:1, being sold?

took heat on the pump when high gap was touched early on the DT, believe to be intact, but psyched out

kinda have a better idea of timing, GC and CL confirm, today would be akin to partly trading pre-earnings AAPL

today i learned that from the moment i observe something is not right, i still can wait for the development

i will call this the something is wrong retest, the denial continuation and then confirmation initiation wave

this offers better entry and also confirmation of the move in the direction is a good psychological booster

also checking fib extension target beforehand will give a general guideline on areas to watch

it's a good goal to aspire to - sweat less, stay level-headed and confident, profit

also, resisted urge to chase higher, due to unknown gap conditions and late cycle environment

i imagine if i tried that method, i would be holding bags at the highs instead, which is more dangerous

delta has shifted, being able to retouch that area may be difficult since the first touch was rejected

but there is still time although expecting LH and not HH due this rejection, sort of a fading transition


there is a vaccine for corona based on the viral receptors, gotta fast track the thing. usage might select for worse variants however. emergency HIV anti-viral is a stop-gap solution. also surprised SARS vaccine does not exist, MERS does

currently in grey area, 50/50 chance to stretch and test, can see R2 as extension after the last pump, but a little like expecting water to flow uphill, retest failing

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  #18 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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back in weekly profile range, resting at pivot, retracing

partly seeing a deformed cup and handle more evident on range chart

handle is being developed, hidden div

unless resolution of flagging, wait for EIA reaction

crude set up at S1 in sell mode, test weekly low

subdued reaction, needs a significant low to capitulate

earlier exits due to FOMC, earnings uncertainty

pivot held, handle needs time to form

selling flushy, after big bid pumps all day yesterday

index off lows, 6E too, but 6A, HG new lows, BTC going higher

approaching retrace levels, pause and EU close

drugs on market available to stem coronavirus

still feels like pushing on upper weekly profile range

big retrace, can turn, gold and bonds building after FOMC

today, incorporated a short term profile for entry and turns

got caught in some turbulence around VWAP, so mostly flat

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  #19 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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looks like the repairman is at work filling areas in

cut through S1 and reflected at S2, to seek S1 fill, also the 50% retrace

support in energy, HG, 6A bounce, BTC spiky

filled, no mas, tires balanced rolling at VWAP

out of this jitter fest, bounced at S1, VWAP

let's see if price can hang during filling

keep hitting range of the weekly profile

push ends with extension target hit, almost half after close

//

corona virus is worse with developed immune systems, older people

bats can act as reservoirs, lacking this system, been studying them in Wuhan

fresh news on this is like a buy reaction, supportive, BTMFD, not yet ready to break

WHO meeting at CL pit close, out on a break in case of a breakout, limited upside vs more down

almost seems tradeable but not really, quick and scalpy, still, driving up, wierd R-R

//

some chinese company geely is funding troubled aston martin, the original tesla model s

elon claims the cyber truck is inspired by a 007 amphibious lotus, bought for >1M

seems like the aston bulldog too, elon should donate to aston with his payout tranches

keep wondering about $TSLA pump, seems ripe after hitting extension target

chunks of OTM calls, some puts, high IV, kinda hedgy for premium

//

today was ok an hour before noon ET, and near the close, but not viable due to after hours releases

noticed hesitation building in the PM, some exhaustion and decided to let the news play out

hesitation built into news unable to break pivot, but quarter to close, flows turned and flipped at pivot

interesting to watch the buildup, but not participatory move, need to be more deliberate not gappy

will be another retest, just glad not positioned into news

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  #20 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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retraced half quickly and overnight, back in weekly profile

some might see this as a buy op, but early and momo

sells here are feasible but bouncy, basically fast open scalp then none

seeing some early big bids, covering near S1, wait for resolution, extension target, mid-week settle

re-test seeing bids, basically the statement whether glass half empty or half full, above / below settle

learning toward the stick save, bouncy, bottom of range, still early has to resolve a bit more

S1 was week open gap down, we are pressing lows, HG, NKD, ZN new lows, waiting for HH, LL

cum delta turned in area of cheapness, maybe work back to open if this holds, kinda staring at NKD

wondering if the airplane is approaching the runway for landing yet, low $TICK, high VX

think the ego has landing gear, but whippy and having a fit due to turbulence, ATR needs to calm down

unfortunately, S1 became resistance, the glass is half empty or revisiting the gap to fill up on items

taking a stand against this violent move and sitting back to watch the carnage, gotta fight for your right

S1 trying to be retaken, the battle of the optimists and pessimists is upon us, first pause, CL lows, 6J highs

major indexes breaching the squiggly areas from yesterday, suppressed, may revisit area as resistance

big oof, taking a small bit of the bounce after the press, kinda checking if sure it wants to keep going

extreme there felt like a stop hunt, checking the demand, revisit might not bounce back, 6A, $TICK HL, need HH

dead cat-ish, EU close soon, high volume, steady but whippy sells, new weekly lows, week is a flop

china PMI, GOOGL earnings next month, so EU closes may be the turning point, taking a small bounce

some OPEC bump on CL, indexes play along for a little, rig counts at 1 EST, EOM, week, afternoon action

new lows, but YM responding with CL bounce, finally turning but S1 is resistance

maybe we can break through with some retrace action, NKD small bounce, seems to want to rest in squiggles

feels like a hold out now, to fill, pause, the last rumbles into the week, CL still strong to kick start

with this EU close, the UK no longer a member, may the brexit be with you, and with that an early exit

//

midway through the livermore book, reads more like a movie

most movies like boiler room, margin call, rogue trader, wolf of, wall st. 1/2 have a negative spin, big short was interesting though and the bank was pretty neat

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  #21 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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Ncov stuff

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/27/coronavirus

https://mobile.twitter.com/harmlessyarddog/status/1222540821016326145

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  #22 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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feels like both sides represented, balanced but still pushing, kinda reluctant so nibbling with the tide away from VWAP, pivot

seems confused, like if not down then up, but if not up then down, but ok then neutral and sit on hands

almost like calculating for NFP scenarios, PMI did not bump CL, GC rising a bit, NKD settling in

chip chop, UK close along with another CDC update, last time was kinda volatile BTD

at resistance from last week, but also attracted to R1, filling a bit more

wonder if the intraday gap offers support, like a "hey, wait for me" moment

some test trades do not remain or get whipped immediately, not ideal for holding

CL tantrum continues, flows going negative toward EU close, Shanghai still digesting

going back to gap and pivot, VWAP, some might like this area, patient fishing type, flagging deep

CDC unable to offer certainty, uncertainty breeds fear of the unknown

on the other side of the coin, being over prepared is not necessarily a bad thing

near monthly POC, kinda in neutral mode, waiting for global health

waiting on CL to turn around instead of going to $40s, kinda dragging

something about an ISM revision to historical data, though came in higher, weird

that was the last straw for today, had enough of the strangeness

someone requested, CDC, report earlier so there is time to adjust before earnings

last time was way to close to the close to load enough

still feels like an indecision tree, trappy, volume fell off, molasses flows

//

Mahome is pretty inspirational, took some hits but just kept going, led the team in spirit, they had the heart to finish strong and just break SF even with early jitters, kinda felt they found SF needed structure, zoned them and brought them back to school, playbook cannot react fast enough, adapting to new conditions is key

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  #23 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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Above S2, gotta wait until everyone is finished buying, but at extension target

can try, blew off a bit, however strong bias, volume lower, squeezing, DOM balancing out

momo still feels strong, flipping both ways, not going to give much either way

small dips will be reluctantly bought, with punishment for not doing so, the rise of the machines

interesting that the big round number blasted through, wants to revisit sometime

EU felt happy today without the UK, AUD/JPY, risk on since last night, non-stop

interesting that CL just paused, GC down but in range, turning a bit

when S2 broke, target now searching for extension off larger flag, S3

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  #24 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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everything's kinda stuck, BTC is not though, YM interesting

TSLA influence on NQ is kinda largish, trying to use indexes in parallel, but kinda misaligned

spread might work, but don't do those

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  #25 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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NFP unknown, light exiting, GC higher, CL lower

staying away from the immediate reaction

like a triple test of resistance, pausing at buildup

coiling since start of week, upside just waiting, baking some in

still on journey to extension target, but maybe a detour first

something strange about NFP event, if built up into news

dip extended lower, support as resistance, GC up, CL down

tried to take support earlier, but broke, so targeting S2 instead

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  #26 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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risk is not on, GC, ZN bid while 6A/6J lower, CL too, still see visit to S levels

lower range hit, too much work to get to next support without retrace, risk still not on

learned to use levels w/ range to lower risk and stay out of trouble, i.e., chasing, YM a good reference

bonus, levels are not a lagging indicator, but not absolute either, just a good way point to analyze

chasing can foul entry, out of range movement can add to the fear, inside range can be confirmation

being in a trade, was able to observe and have a better feel, still early, on both entry and exit

confirmation gives some reason to stay in, but confirmation does not mean chasing either, wait, fibs

this wavering push lower will hopefully be saved by the bell, range boundary, lower volume, friday

possibility of a high volume flush to S2 since previous support is now resistance

shaved a little off a big weekly candle, and those dips keep getting bid up

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  #27 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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trees for the forest problem, too much precision, not enough accuracy

trees are the ST, the forest the LT, top down from forest and then the trees

never focus solely on the trees, will lose precision but gain accuracy

filter out the noise, which is a range and affects time based strats

the method becomes more like fishing, wait there with your setup

and take action when you see the move, though the catch is variable

//

the area outside of north china, with beijing being HQ historically has been more independent

west China is less of a concern, controllable and less populated desert region

however, southern areas, Wuhan, Taiwan, Canton, Chengdu, Chungking, Shanghai, HK

have historical events of nationalist, KMT, independence uprisings, colonialism, etc.

Wuhan is a central location to southern China, disabling a large portion geographically

HK protests, Taiwan Independence re-election, and possibly other growing issues

causing a more democratic lean to southern china, harder to crack down upon

may have been a breaking point, added a yellow circle of north china vs southern

https://ibb.co/z5qvN4T


//

crude taking the escalator down, sometimes a leader, the fight for 50

HG, 6A not budging higher, GC grinding up but 6E falling

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  #28 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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Finding the meat of the move and believing it

Enormous leeway there, can go with first target

Take some extra or just walk away and wait

Agreeable simplicity, very clear instructions to execute

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  #29 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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asymmetry on sell side, less patience here, CL supportive but risk hit pause button

BTC anticipating halvening, decrease in supply, also from forgotten wallet passwords

AM topping, with a slow PM trickle, not the best pie to slice up, cannot fathom pivot target

should imagine this possibility since last PM session was a bump up from this pivot

CL also drifting down, profile is gappy below, but near POC, the gravity is getting stronger

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  #30 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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euro dippin, R1 testing, resting, VX sliding, EUR/JPY widened, $TICK lows

waiting out the tide, needs to adjust here from overnight

near yday's close, maybe pause, let it do its thing, confusing now

if held from lower, a little holding risk might be okay, flows positive

kinda neat: COV data

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  #31 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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another pause, slow on DT, might be ranged, but closing in on pivot

almost fell flat for early entry, caught, but bounced, too much strangeness

wobbling and then spiking, but still ranged, short trap, then bull trap, then short trap

level is strong, decent entry but afraid of breakthrough past level, also noticed stop outs

YM lagging but hit S1, trying for a similar close since mid-week

CL, rig count rip, started eyeing VX and $TICK during bounce, risk and flows flagging down

feels like failed attempts higher, strength being sold into, earlier dip formed a support

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  #32 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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filtering ST can avoid some variation, previously causing issues that forced LT frames

but LT causes lag, some issues of late entry can be attributed to LT, also a risk

dialing back frame with the filter is more responsive, but can still call early exit

however, the ST exit is a lower risk than a late LT entry, acceptable

some methods exist to continue holding through a ST, but still adjusting

price is still the best indicator, and with that levels, both non-lagging

naked price action is still dangerous though

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  #33 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 27 since Feb 2020
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6E, CL, GC ramped

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  #34 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
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mixed, ok on DT, consolidating, tried both ways but not following

finally moving past S1, maybe S2

out on the bounce, enough

been trying to revamp, signals kinda got me shook

however, they are valid, the minors are what need work

details point to simply taking better areas

trouble starts from initiating from poor formation

lately the EU close has been providing fodder

action on 6E corroborates

bounce on last week's closing area

daily S2 now target, interesting and quick

wow overshoot to weekly S1

superfast reversal character changed on a dime

area is wild, repair, another consolidation, bonkers

after pause looking for better turn in area

price action is like push down but absorbed, flows too

had revisited last thurs low

breach of weekly S1, retouch daily S2, may return to daily S1, weekly pivot

having trade hiccups and get bashed, trying to commit fewer misdeeds

resting, but found buys have to wait another hour or so, but that nears the close

so maybe trying not to engulf on the tape for best case, let it do its thing

actually starting to look flagged, just sticking around weekly S1

able to push through daily S2, kinda waiting, might squeeze, maybe just 50% retrace

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  #35 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
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PMI off, hit S1s, pressured bounce, S might become R, wait hourly

lot of lagging down, damage done, top of hour small news

feels like 6E up means less dollars for foreigns to buy bonds

feeding the dollar-import cycle, strong dollar, buy goods, gives dollars

which are used to buy more bonds, enabling expansionary policy

has become no man's land for a while now, waiting things out

VX, gold upping the ante, AUD/JPY unch, CL not happy

flows small neg, maybe swap positive after next hour

tough to revert, slow to a 50% retrace if any, wants this zone

still hovering at weekly S1, more damage after recoiling

had to test yesterday's sharp low, under for week

hard to press upward with momo dragging, would be slow

GC off highs, AUD/JPY actually rising, flows accumulating

on LT, kinda wedged, bit above MA, support from last week

hard trade pushing the lows, could turn so nada

50% retrace did happen and then continued DT

third test made new lows, but not engulfed

seems like a measured move, and absorbed along the way

dips are strong but the rips are also, quick and dirty

no man's land again, gotta wait for the grind to happen

AUD/JPY isn't moving as much, gold no new high

let the bots do the work, and then get on at the next station

kinda like, ok, we move to this price, how does everyone feel here

wait for reaction, behavioral and then prep for next adjustment

another 50% retrace in action, retest lows maybe after

kinda like how the waves hit the shore and then froth with the next set

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  #36 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
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WAVE ENERGY LEVELS (tl;dr next post)

concept of a battery providing current to generate load

motive force gets consumed once charge depletes

there are patches where inertia takes over

example of negative charge

until cells get depleted, the potential energy state can be shifted

there may be minor inertia or lagging late kinetic energy prior to settling

the developing energy state may be unstable, or unable to hold

the balance may be disrupted, prompting adjustments

one may consider the overall super-trend, expansionary

dotted with pockets of contraction, or recharging

another view is the absorption of counter-energy, consumption

similar to KERS, regenerative braking, example of charge absorption, early accumulation, higher risk

charge banks may become flooded or overloaded during absorption, causing continuation

in the case of a pullback, the banks may adjust for increasing demand and absorb further

this type of action actually generates more potential energy, causing a further shift in levels

instead of the initial fib extension target, the secondary target is now an option

another view of this is HH, HL, a failure of this view indicates excess un-absorbable energy

basically, formation of a LL, meaning get out of the way until further visible absorption

this potential energy risk means safely waiting until HH formation can safely push through

or, in or words, when the banks are fully charged and in sync, confluent, etc. (image in next post)

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  #37 (permalink)
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happy 2-22-2020 day @ 22:22:22

the initial wave is the charging wave, pullbacks exist, causing some psychological weakness, higher risk

the banks may deplete multiple times, giving up charge to refill from overflow, the second counter wave

the middle or third wave, transition to fewer pullbacks, stronger agreement and more consistent behavior

lower risk in the third wave, but differentiating between a fourth counter-wave pullback and new trend is tough

in a strong third wave charge, you can observe a range-like, compression behavior, charge absorption

there is energy spent on moving to further potential energy levels, but more energy absorbed than spent

a strong third wave, the result of strong charge (HH) and a weak pullback (LL) gives a strong fifth wave

full discharge occurs during the fifth wave, and can be very dynamic, there is a lot of excess energy here

for this reason countering the trend here is difficult, a lot of energy is needed to absorb such movement

the turn here is easier to spot, as all the charge has been spent, exiting prior or during strength is advised


the above example, holds charge through the close indicating continuation, does not deplete overnight, and continues the next day

for options of premium sellers who are are literally selling this energy, the optimal point is here

the energy burst has settled, and premium decay is setting in, gamma is finally decreasing

at one wave extreme, one might sell premium, use the credit to take advantage of the directional bias, creating a spread, and buy back the spread

even better, if a previous leg was initiated, the spread can be hedged in case there is some unexpected movement against it, a temporary condor, maybe butterfly if less risk averse or volatile

//

potential to kinetic energy, some charge has been spent, in an intermediate state

this type of energy helps form an init criteria, maintains the inertia and shows depletion

a motive force from a wave in motion will meet certain resistance upon which work is done

the wave power from stored energy will dictate the amount of total potential energy converted

//

you can see the internal forces smashing against a turbulent area temporarily

this is an area of importance, energy was devoted to maintaining time here

likewise, a resting point such as an open or close can be a stored state, or potential energy source

you can also imagine a news event perturbing levels, this energy quickly dissipates

and the overall energy may cause a return to previous areas, but the disruption eats up some charge

the shift may eventually tip the balance and the potential energy state will shift

//

TL;DR

price is the original, non-lagging indicator, the action and relative status, an indicator of energy

while we cannot react so quickly during a news event, the observation of the potential energy state

provides fodder for a bounce, a weak one indicating continuation and a strong reaction, a paradigm shift

either way fast or slow, the potential energy level dictates how much energy is spent

the pure price is helpful here regardless of time, volume or flow, though this extra detail may help

between states, the return to an intermediate level will create a charge state dictating further movement

// extra, misc.

due to this, indicators are reverse-engineered from price and are inherently lagging

indicator-dependent algos will lag, the longer the TF the larger the lag, so HFT must compete in ST

without a filter, algos can be manipulated, the human advantage is reading action and levels

an algo based on price might still react via indicators for risk, if one has levels in mind

these can be used in the case of an overshoot, tailing, etc. creating actionable, low-risk zones

however, there is a feedback loop, for example at the extreme, limit up/down events triggering breakers

so, waiting for a decrease in activity is best, pullbacks, giving time for adjustment

dead cat bounces, parabolic, ST vol is not fun and risky, too fast and though algos lag, they are quick enough

maybe it is best to let the machines do the lifting at extremes and take the deliberate, intermediate sections

in the past and often, recently, at extremes, charge states have turned on a dime, in less than a minute

//

stuff about COV, delayed onset and similarity to charge states, feedback, etc.

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  #38 (permalink)
Ankara/Turkey
 
 
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Thanks good explain


bobwest View Post
This is an issue with every trend-following method or system: there are both trends and not-trends, and the not-trends will kill you, when your objective is to get into a trend and hold it. The range reverses just about then the trend would have started.

You can always go to a lower timeframe, but you may find that the same trend/range phenomenon exists there, too.

I wish you success in this, but be aware of the issues. They are basic to the choice of using a trend-following approach. "If I could just not trade during these ranges" has been said, with feeling, by trend traders for a very long time. (And I include myself here . )

I won't suggest an answer because I don't have one yet. I should point out that a pure system approach has some pluses, in that trade executions are always according to the rules, but also that a totally rules-based approach means that you have to have all the possible variations already figured out and incorporated into the rules. Which is something else that is intrinsic to the basic choices that have been made, this time in going for a system instead of a discretionary approach. (Pure discretionary traders face their own issues, and still have the trend/range one.)

Good luck. I hope you manage these issues successfully.

Bob.


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  #39 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
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Yeah, the range dilemma can be painful if there is no cutoff switch. One can imagine a zone or agreed upon area as the default range. Going outside this area actually forms another range. Ranges seem like pauses, resolving, consolidating, good times to rest until movement resumes.

This is similar to tinkering around with cars, swapping an intake, a piggyback ECU, blow-off valve, simple swaps.. you can achieve incremental performance and mileage increases, but to swap turbos, that is a bit much. With tinkering, you can adjust settings and poke around to see what works. This is similar.

Sometimes things break and you just go back to the last setting. Not trying to rebuild a section, just improve what works. The mentality remains, if it ain't broke don't fix it. However, if it doesn't break and feels better, why not.

The turbo swap analogy might be like going semi-auto, requiring a deeper understanding of the internals, and stuff will break in the process for sure. You can lessen the amount of failures by first optimizing what is available without breaking everything down. Not quite top-down, but maybe top-middle and back, and then maybe eventually deeper from top-middle-and finally bottom. The middle is more familiar territory, you can find your way back to the middle.

Maybe you have to break each part down to understand the synergy, re-work things and build back up iteratively. Oh yeah, having a good dyno helps, just like back-testing and diagnostics.

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  #40 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
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the feel is slow DT accum, some fast drops

50% retrace from the year, on 03-20 contracts, hitting MA

those who want out can get out, some staying in but hedging

with AUD/JPY def risk off, CL down, GC kinda up, 6E inching back up

already approaching daily/weekly S3s

strat is to sit out, haha, mostly too fast, too furious

after bouncing from low of range now hitting top of range within 20 minutes wow

def a LT frame, healthy bounce but too fast for all parties

srsly, only thing that can react is a preset level order

feels more like a standard cover, flows down

bounce from LT MA to a ST MA

so far more entertaining than workable, those auto-bots hard at work

still grinding that upper range, top of the hour

slow pokes, and late risers want some of that PB, getting jelly

might not get it, hit the LT 50% and MA and now looking like inv HS

should be heading in ST DT, but somehow holding, possible strength

ppl still see value, it's like a 50% off sale from the past month, not sure who

lots of charge spent to push down, spiky spiky springs up

honestly feels bouncy both ways now, the DT bounce won previously, but feels tired

like the gas pedal is pressed, there is some braking, but they let off the accelerator for a bit

let it coast, and then the braking energy gets spit back out, but some charge is lost from heat/friction

the spike frequency makes for a prickly situation, now rested at S off range low

this particular PB is packing some additional momo, hold on for a bit

afterburners are blasting, flows neg, but GC dropped, CL upped

they burnt out the fuel for a while, brakes screeching, HL, nah, ug close @ S3s

FUTS ARE STRONK TONITE

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  #41 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
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lol so fast, kinda blurry, hard to know the price other than MA, bounce off S

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  #42 (permalink)
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micros been looking good these past few sessions

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  #43 (permalink)
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welp, fast market, lots of slippage, wonder if any platforms can keep up at open

bet people are kicking their boxes a little to see if they are still moving

unless you are co-located next to cme or something

somehow tradovate is better, rithmic lags

put in an order and get a large spread fill on rithmic lmao

but tradovate keeps up, strange..

magnet at S, LT MA

weird how GC and AUD/JPY kinda static, though VX should be up, 6E effects

discounting the virus concerns, GDP and KC Fed #s previously OK

kinda like, OK guys we mark up prelim levels first, so looking forward, MA is OK to fill

//

COV, if this really started last fall, then the rate should be backdated, like the Q1 pump was a hedge playout

like you can hedge for the year now, and then accumulate through the seasons, something about taxes, etc.

//

just tiny micros for rest of day, more to get practice in the vol environment, and get feel for slippage

also feels more like trading noise around the S magnet, like larger players trying to limp into positions

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  #44 (permalink)
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these are the times to be willing to do more, pay dues, this is great data

what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger

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  #45 (permalink)
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settling into a style, tried various but took some things that worked earlier, isolated them and filtered out the noise

not only being correct but the magnitude is a strong enforcer, vice versa, being wrong and very wrong

can see how profit factor would be a big selector for evolving strategies

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  #46 (permalink)
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jeebus thing is so fast rn

risk is pretty flat, saying more of a tech bounce, nothing changed yet, flows slightly neg

GC is resting, CL as well, looking at events later in the week

micros a good hedge in the holding push, kinda annoying blips

feels like a curling process, challenging the resistance

many sitting and waiting prolly, hedged and already out a bit, shifting position

//

strange sentiment about, closing doors and such, less face to face dealing, physical travel

might be a boon for virtual apps actually, AI, etc.

however, even robotics need supply chains, hard to manage with the disruption

US supply should benefit from desire to find backup sources

so maybe US is still cleanest dirty shirt, cheap crude might not be a bad thing, XLE looking low

forgot about euro, having a pullback, dixie strength ok still

//

last part of day looks too crunchy, ides of march, so whatever picture the tape wants to paint i'll look later

//

maybe relief rallies in commodities, CL esp, with 6C and 6A hitting recent lows, maybe a tell for dollar weakness along with ZN

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  #47 (permalink)
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everything is so laggy, bad sign

slicing started in overnight, flip flopping

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  #48 (permalink)
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saving myself from the derps - just a headfake really

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  #49 (permalink)
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low volume channel

ziggy zaggy and DT

@CL pit close we shut down and let it paint LL

if yday was weak today feels abnormally strong

from mini slips to mini rips, actually ranged somehow

oh, that must have been a support, and it just broke

just like previous must have been a resistance that also snapped

ah i see now, S1 is a magnet, but S becomes R

rather learn and correct mistakes than get lucky, the mantra

still, try to keep the mistakes small as you go

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  #50 (permalink)
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VX is surging and things are getting wild

higher than several years, possibly past decade

this is not normal at all, contingencies, etc.

not as much volume today

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  #51 (permalink)
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https://imgur.com/a/jRubHIK

Be ______ when others are fearful

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  #52 (permalink)
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VX seems like a multiplier, in that the previous fractals remain but another layer is added on

the time effect is constant, so the original component is now accelerated

you are dealing with a larger effective amplitude

and the requirement for faster execution time

if someone is unable to adapt to becoming faster

these become large swings instead of tight scalps

right direction, but imprecise entry, gotta be nimble

//

covid links

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0452_article

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463?searchresult=1

the claim - the newer strain is more virulent, aggressive and more symptomatic but also more likely to be quarantined

the original strain, being weaker and less harmful under the current controls is more likely to pass under the radar, but there is less overall harm done

so the caveat hinges on the effectiveness of the quarantine to mitigate the spread of the more lethal strain

the spike protein is the same, so vaccine dev would still rely on a constant antigen

if one could reverse virulence further but still maintain a decent rate of infection, an active, but non-lethal strain would aid in developing an immune response against any COVID in this class with varying degrees of lethality

the risk would be in producing a novel, lethal strain with a mutated spike protein

the twisted view would be, that under the radar, from a bio-weapons perspective, one would first introduce the non-lethal version to protected population(s) and with delay, then release the lethal version to target population(s)

the question here is.. what is the true COVID mutation rate, the smoking gun.. testing for presence of COVID antibodies in the unexposed..

something that discounts this is a patient who was infected with both strains..

last link, spike protein also a source of virulence, but mutations limited so antibodies can still work against

https://newsroom.uw.edu/news/covid-19-coronavirus-spike-holds-infectivity-details

//

a possible bottoming process, discounted

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  #53 (permalink)
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continuing with CL drop, actually in multi year DT, resolving which is relief, because energy leading means a resolution and later strength

//

but back to COVID stuff

recent released paper on mutation

Although we found only 4% variability in genomic nucleotides between SARS-CoV-2 and a bat SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV; RaTG13), the difference at neutral sites was
17%, suggesting the divergence between the two viruses is much larger than previously estimated

vigilance is needed on the severe acute version for sure, but really not every COVID case here is severely acute

link showing global strain different from Wuhan

Wuhan cases winding down

//

AUD/JPY down most, USD/CAD up, EUR/USD up a bit

CL shock on the tail of COVID

a presser to find the pain point at which easing is activated, now searching

big whiff on BTC

limits

feels like forced liquidation, GC, BTC, CL

dunno, if there's no nrg, no btc

//

AM open not liquid

PM outlier outside VAL in DT

VPOC so far above heh

took a risk because looked cheap

did a 50%RT earlier from the whole move

maybe another 50 sub-RT for this PB

this is actually weekly S2, now R

hit some MAs, not going to wait through this PB

patterns looks to target fib ext, which is weekly VPOC

this establishes LL, so needs HH next to validate

gonna leave it to the PM and nighttime hopefuls to push us through

only thing that bothers me is that the second limit down was an artificial support

and might need to be tested, hit some kind of developing resistance

guess i have to keep in mind that the area is not a line, but a supply zone

this is in part due to the speed of the tape, so much variance

flows went slightly positive, last hour is absolutely watch only, closing out the DOM

you want to enjoy the artistry as they paint the tape here, no whining

all these MAs converging, in an attempt to convince, who knows

starting to cringe at words like repo, cds, gamma

trying to eat the supply, but stuffed

tape became quite thin again, volume lower than initial push

crowd might be SOH, waiting for PPT relief

still a wierd gap above, might blast to weekly S2

think this was the level prior to initial circuit breaker in ext hours

so sellers were above this possibly, guess limit events can seed levels

seems like last chance gulch here

sometimes the 50RT forms before the last leg

would be case for a flag to then test the lows or fill the area below

maybe weekly VPOC will eventually move down there and create structure

looking more LT, limit breaker at top end of mid-2019 area dunno

tough to stop the continuation from a large move

//

right now strat is wait for safety, get in low end when ok, exit is wobbly hard to hold

high vol, not ideal for mid-entry scalping, or late-stage / get caught bag-holding

ouch, couldn't get any higher, the world is now a few trillion poorer, poof just like that

distance between P and S will be wider

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  #54 (permalink)
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dang, rooting for a stick save rn to avoid further DT, might have to get to P, also to allow buy in lower

feels like spurts hidden within, flows neutralish, parties SOH

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  #55 (permalink)
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breakers imminent possibility, but S and range low has to bust

GC is interesting too, just watching tape hit lows

attempt to delay vixxplosion ongoing

gotta print up more margin

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  #56 (permalink)
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there is a disturbance in the force, consolidation, hovering

limit up serves to cap upside, seems like an instant replay, rewind now

seems like a new era with vol loosened up

this up-side crash is like a mirror of the down-side financial crash

with stronger up-spikes, the last being HH

//

rollover, ES still holds liquidity, even MES

adjustment to higher, larger range, but in a faster TF

quick moves do not feel deliberate or tested, like a flash crash in slow motion

thin profiles above were a pointer, but the floors are still too thin

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  #57 (permalink)
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looking back more LT, not out of the woods yet, the drop friday did damage, however the DT was pulled out by the ON push, which setup another prop job at close

there is some CN data sunday, but this may all be a play at the FOMC, building expectations

the anticipation of any rate cut news triggers these huge spikes, which are immediately sold

as if buy the rumor, sell the news were on steroids in the backdrop of a slew of negative events

with COVID slamming atop any patchwork easing, the difficulty of finding a supportive policy

is really dependent on lessening uncertainty, what exactly could the FED do here to reassure

in concert with effective global containment of an outlier, think BOJ and the tsunami crisis but bigger

Fukushima took a year to resolve during a fragile era, post recovery, after a systemic financial crisis

in the face of stabilizing efforts, in the backdrop of a more stable financial system

markets may be more willing to look forward and discount the pandemic

not as fast as the 2018 V bottom, the damage here is bigger but there is a possibility for EOY recovery

the further away from china, there is a supply lag, china is already recovering, incoming data might reflect this

in some ways this is a blessing in disguise, as the frothiness was unsustainable, an elevator down

the strength and rate of the stairs back up will be a tell to the real foundation and provide growth targets

energy sector is a large drag on the index, subtracting the sector might actually show a more positive picture

as energy has been in a DT for quite a while since BOJ busted the yen and commodities slammed with a strong DXY

other sectors like consumer staples with the hoarding are still off, similar to discretionary

unlike other sectors, crude has not stemmed the bleeding yet, pending SPR buying and OPEC drama resolution

this is neat, somehow 50%

//

finally going to add simply, that condition is way OS, has to bounce, perhaps has already begun, the bounce would transform conditions into a possible v-turn, removing last week's tantrum, this would actually re-position as a 50% retrace, coupled with positive divergence would transform into the initiation of a strong wave that pushes through monthly range into Q1 territory, basically a rewind reversal

the options volume has not had precise moments to catch up, so the tailing event would re-form proper liquidity, again the psychology would be on a fear mongering basis, seeing the other side beyond the crowded hoarding is probably for the best

during the lows, there were sizeable bids at the bottom in the overnight, at the time, really thought they were spoofed, but if they were actually filled orders and VX has cleared the squeeze, then vol sellers might return alongside anticipation of stimulus, etc., perhaps put sellers wanting to buy in lower if possible

think a slow-motion flash crash over the week, a spring clearance event, with the current events heavy enough to provide weight for decent entries

you can also think of this as a discounted scenario of the on-going trade dispute, and with the downside priced in as worst-case thanks to an outlier covid event, one can build upon the potential upside from this basis point, H2 2019 was pretty extended honestly considering the dampening from trade-related issues

and energy is hitting lows prematurely, which is deeply discounting future events, so LT positioning is slowly realizing some value here, some may be waiting for the actual tech signs to avoid being too early

pundits might have motives to push prices down further, but consider the demand zone, FTSE and DAX, they are even providing images for mean-reversion strats, they are almost yelling at you, past the fear

for example, in previous flash crashes, the price drop in the half-hour did not immediately trigger a recessionary lean, a reflection of a few days is an impression, the actual YTD, monthlies, quarter will paint a clearer picture of this reflexive sentiment, again this was a very thin window, reactionary, undigested

the stopped might seek re-buy ins, holders might seek better value, spiked hedges might be letting go, the tides can shift, early-mid-late participants in turn, and VX highs as divergence vs indexes is also worth considering

the eurodollar issue that haunted 2008 can be acknowledged and avoided by providing liquidity, they are packaging all this info for you with a negative spin, but is it really, don't be a gartman muppet, think of the banking moral hazard forcing the fed's hand, pressuring hedgies, indirect retaliation for volcker rule limitations

this kind of technical drop has actually primed the pump, orchestrated or not, you decide, OFC the trend if your friend, but these are range lows and PB would provide a better op, not sure about the wave dev or how this will form but things to consider

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  #58 (permalink)
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if this is really an all in bluff, ppl got tuliped on tp and sanitizer

the seeming panic, a pandemic label to slow down the spread is a pretty useful strategy

the characteristic of the pullback will determine the perception of the overall frothiness, or late stage strength

even this, whether the depleted wealth of the few affects the many, trickle down much? passing the buck, or does it all stop here

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  #59 (permalink)
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watching outbreak, interesting how E1101 was antidote for developed bio weapon

searching around, high strength wipes like caviwipes and sporicidin are available still, min lead time 1 week

toilet paper alternatives like tissue and wet wipes still around, connections to med/lab might be useful

//

actually just noticed something on the late day spike, with high vol, entries need to be very selective, the spike did not satisfy all conditions, so the uptick has to be taken with a grain of salt, the close shifted a bit so that is a plus

throughout the week most of the hard moves down happened in extended hours, there are some down moves during regular hours but they are not as convincing

though fewer, the up moves also occur outside of regular hours, those during the regular time frame are less convincing

the last spike however, looked more similar to global moves, with a large volume spike at close pushing flows positive

this might be the initial sign, coupled with a huge positive MOC

altogether, this suggests more of a global issue vs domestic, euro-dollar funding, currency stress, more of a shockwave

while domestically, price holds the range but still whipsaws, think grabbing hold of a slippery fish that has ventured outside of regular hours, is contained but once again escapes in the overnight

this sort of low volume breakout profile has layered patches of structure, as energy has been released throughout, certain levels are now defining more confined states, if this is true, vol should diminish, perhaps consolidation

that is, if this carp can be seized not only during the day but also contained overnight, carpe noctum if you will via systematic calming, re-stabilization

that cage might be the return to normalcy brought on by options/MMs, as suggested here

someone has to tame the beast as the MMs are not stepping in, one blew up on short vol earlier in the month, this feels more like a titration, offering the minimal support necessary to contain the major issue

from the other side, knowing that the FOMC is this week, players may be forcing their hand to maximize the amount of stimulus offered, again moral hazard

barry is calling this a side-effect of passive investing or a CTA, buy above X level and close below Y level, sell below Z level causing a feedback loop as price capitulates, so then, when do these CTAs close their shorts?

keep in mind that CTAs may have triggered the H2 19 buying spree, but as algos, they did flip long without emotion, guess we watch nomura for more on these flows, follow the leader, even CTAs are lagging on sells

for all we know some of the so-called CTAs, could be a subset located at 33 liberty, one should be more concerned with an electronic version of covid

//

POMO, looks like dollar weakness, would also help swaps, the floodgates are opening hopefully

now comes the reason for the pump, to halt on limit down, standby

some good points, cuts already prior to FOMC event, and cleanest dirty shirt status might actually strengthen DXY

aside from technicals down, flows kinda positive for some reason, offers stacked on the DOM

correction, FOMC event has been shifted forward, is the current event, will wait for confirmation

guess in the overnight, one way to stabilize is to just close off, ZN bid, but still is not bid enough, something have to catch up or give

some CN data later, was also neg, interesting how HSI is saving some face in the DT, more damage control here for some reason

this round of fed titration seems more like a sledgehammer, better overshoot than under rn

BOJ moved their event up to Monday mid-day, concerted CB easings, market supportive moves

this is almost like currency catch-up moves, for some time weak against USD

all except for JPY, which is the second fork of the AUD/JPY, if both ease, the carry trades would be back on

USD/JPY has been suffocated for some time, EUR/AUD is another possibility, even just AUD/USD with nil DXY rates

commodities would be pushed lower, keeping inflation in check, so this may be part of the concerted move

would explain ZN, GC going lower, with this anticipation, some kind of puzzle ongoing innit, 6S is interesting too

//

bond-index correlation is still outta wack, they have to be in sympatico instead of 180 for this to work

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  #60 (permalink)
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seeing bids, still early, news ~ lunch hour

sighs of relief probably, damage control

this one is not a squeeze, recovery

//

super LT view, imagine this area as a 50%

should allow accumulation / hovering if true

dip seems want to slip instead of rip

and chip away at the blips

but ppl putting in their targets

starting to get mixed signals on the DT, hidden strength, HL

couldn't make it, flows turned neg, test the HL / non-direction, waiting on health reports

new VX highs, pressing lower, still room for range bottom, and big buys in the low range, flows shifted positive

repo issues, swaps low, the situation is still not, even almost, maybe a little contained with this new LL

but for a long termer, 2Ks is a better buy than in the 3Ks for sure

cash is going to wake and realize they are already in the low 2Ks and do a no-brainer add

but where does CL end up, possible leader / tell, looking for the DB to form

//

just staring at the VX in the longest TF possible, well behaved upward press

this blew out of bounds, if the turn starts to load, energy fading, will revert

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  #61 (permalink)
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so limit up, no breaker, got it, seems a little asymmetrical, but either way the limits hold in the overnight

the issue sort of makes the profile artificial, more time spent on limit ups than down triggers, volume negligible overnight

since the VX resolved the out of bounds condition, can move either way still

every VX drop still excuse to re-ramp, lot of ST buy-holders increasingly on edge

LT probably still SOH, waiting for lower VX, rips still become dips LH, LL

there are nimble entries, but the conditions shift on a dime

ZN, CL, HG remain unbid, unlike DXY

//

Asia is ahead of the curve here with recovery, SARS preparedness, there is a pivotal economic shift in play here, HSI may come out relatively unscathed.. would be a test of economic dependence on domestically produced goods however.. Patchwork impromptu drug mining there may aid slowdown in COVID, another sector of interest

//

they actually tried to pull this comparison, by points, but % it's -33 vs -20, could portend to go from 1/5 to 1/3 though

but does bring up a valid point, that points/% move is bigger now than before

//

interesting, VX seems to have gone to the other side, or something, maybe not quite

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  #62 (permalink)
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limit down, this selloff comparison is better
CV19 on surfaces and air
ppl yolo'ing puts on wsb/rh

fda presser around noon, watching CL, $TICK pretty low, vs last 5 days, VX rolled still in uppers

volume seems lower, not aggregating H0+M0 though, steady churning

rn, should have been fomc where they lower some basis but panic meeting undid this all

CL still falling, VX is actually coiling, watching DXY drop foreign money

maybe crude pit close will stop the bleeding

this is neat on the dollar rise

some kinda DB summary of COV impact

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  #63 (permalink)
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6A recovered, along with HG, energy digesting drop, VX pause, BTC bounce, but 6E lower on DXY strength, GC?

going below yday close, feels more controlled at least with QE titration, margins, maybe italy CV cases will decay, cure found possibly via chloroquine + azithromycin

jittery, 4x witching, SPX OEX derivs ending, etc., see how things resolve after this 2 week rout

HYG off, squeeze covering, felt drippy, interesting relative perspective on magnitude through the years, bond-index running together, maybe for QE linkage

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  #64 (permalink)
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VX has been reluctant to move, more of a pause or hovering in the overall

looking for a symphony of correlated moves, still readjusting, A/J, NKD, GC, ZN, CL, even DXY

looks more like deleveraging from overexposure, interesting index-vx comparison

just saw VX move +/- 5, ZN did not PB, neither did CL, VX had LOD (div), but CL pulling, hard to hold, but feeling the struggle in price lower, another VX whip in less than 1 second, hmm

not sure if this is to tame index vol or more to reduce option IV, hard to hedge with high prem via puts unless selling calls, overall the feeling is crappy around ongoing events

if 2008 was a bank crisis, the focus was easier to contain, this is more widespread and the resolution has more parts, before you could inject directly to banks, but this time, the easing is a few steps further out, the effect of QE is much more diminished here, T_T

sized bids get run through and then offers appear, the flows try to stay positive, though initially negative, at least $TICK is LOD and above pivot, but there is room to lower range from yday close

one plus is that real estate, a very large personal asset is not as affected, so there might be more resilience, the bank crisis wave eventually spread downstream, so the core is not so damaged

there is also a strange uptrend in $TRIN through the week accompanied by opening spikes, containment? does the feedback turn the other way and try to resolve properly, hovering, still needs resolution, concerted, save DXY, 6J, ZN bid, flows keep going positive, oh yeah, VWAP expiry concerns

//

interesting, so Maduro/VZ oil is much lower, supplied to RU/rosneft, the exchanged rubles used to buy russian weaponry, the dealings still allow for low global oil prices, the Maduro/Guaido issue extends to the semi-socialist alliance of CN, IR, RU, VZ, if this were a game of risk, these are the nearest choke points for expansion =/ CN african interest is also in the background, NK, also brent/north sea oil, weak nordic currency a side effect, break of UK from EU, nationalism in DE, getting side tracked reading about soros and black weds, now wondering about vol of currencies vs DXY, lots of buzzing, destabilizing forces, entropy

//

initial covid strain, expanded within wuhan and the different strain exported later, france rushed to discover a patch for international strain, what was the patient zero strain, earlier recovery in CN

//

when silver eagles sell out day 1 of SI low, goto BTC? but DT so then what, DXY, no ZN, but yield so low? CTAs don't care.. if everything bubble, then save bonds? treasurydirect? so now the comparable default investment rate is 0%, if you don't lose anything you win? what? so then must be negative on other instruments? who takes the other side? oh.. zero sum, there's a reason BOE gave Soros the evil eye

//

heat-seeking low range finding DT, but VX is not HOD, ZN is, does it VWAP, no S1 is still further down, MOC -1 B, dare to hold over weekend?

this last one is interesting, trying to think that the fall-winter holiday pump was meant to diminish the overall loss%

Another view of fed money

And some value prediction

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  #65 (permalink)
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the new cov mobile detector sytem

man some real tabloidy stuff is coming out on CV

imma write my own, in the past decade, upon observing the flood of electronic currency floating about sending unintentional wave signals to unknown outer life, aliens arrived to live among us to observe the noise that initially attracted them, the effect and resolution of this was the observation that the root of human suffering was an asset imbalance and sought to create a chaotic event, supplanting the current order, this is their resolution their seeds had actually been sown much earlier in the form of cannabis, realizing that humans have started accepting the substance, the triggers were now in place to reconfigure via CV

//

looking back at my history, the vol hit my limits 3x more in feb. than in previous months where limits would hit only several times, dialing up the ranges due to the larger amplitude helped to reduce the failure frequency, so having such an event is fortunate in retrospect, subconsciously one would wonder what would happen in events such like these and we are now witnessing these conditions. a swap to micros helped a bit as well, as attempts at other risk controls, in the face of large waves, exactly when not to get crushed was more obvious, many such events put together makes for a slew of experiences in a very compact timeline

adjustment to unique vol, observing correlates and their effect on the main instrument, esp. VX, CL and DXY maybe some ZN, something was off about feb, because as vol rose past 20s, then 30s, there was still an anti-trend in place that caused very wide range-like moves, after VX blasted higher into 40s and 50s, liquidity risks started showing, even ES became thin, option IV being high, and now, with electronic floors in control TBC

//

another spin on gravity of CV

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  #66 (permalink)
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at least bonds are moving up

this is also a push for a virtual vs, physical presence

automation, delivery earlier than expected

FANG actually survives in this scenario

Enterprise might be lagging behind due to security

Communications, etc. The next wave of dot Com

Tele med in the mix, more out sourcing maybe to less affected areas

//

concerted QE moves, GC, 6E, A/J, not really CL, maybe VX, -VX and a pos flow PM

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  #67 (permalink)
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just a jitter fest, uphill push on the minor wave, almost feels like H2 2019, but over-leveraging selection, de-leveraging

RB still lower, GC off highs, VX cut in twain but off lows

a you are here cv chart, trying to lower the peak with prevention and new methods

maybe we pick up, hover so might ok, but just filling might give better ops

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  #68 (permalink)
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Lots of delay, accum. Whale deposits in BTC might lessen float
VX watch still, overall profile has many ceilings but could be just bumper buys or covers, lots of side lining until conviction returns, VX stuck after initial rout

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  #69 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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CL losing it a bit, though 6C has been pushing, currently doing the micro bit in this scene, while stuck with indecision

initial bump resolves melt down from last week, the thought is main st participants would funnel in at some point

quarantined, unable to deploy discretionary spending elsewhere, could end up taking on stock, disabled buybacks

slow down and reduce the exposure and mitigate risk from the corporate side, overall attempt to increase participants

distribute shares from a smaller to larger slice, pensions have to continually exit, so other funds take up extra space

bootstrap confidence, increase the base of holders to initiate efficient stimulus, positive feedback

//

unless you have access to micros the room for error is too small, seeking out alternatives, some already in development

this was not an issue prior to the volatility but other providers are looking much better due to access to micros alongside regular instruments

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  #70 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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wierd read from 1999, p25, p51, 146, p146, p179, p195

ran a leeloo trial and was able to hit target, here the micros scale and commissions are adjusted, very similar to oneup, perhaps cheaper, fewer days required (10 vs 15), can hold longer, through news, etc. for funded, recently they have started charging monthly data fees 80-ish usd funded, and limit cash out during the initial period (few months) but they allow full scaling from the start, for one option, the other option is not limited and scales with a pause at the eval limit.. this is what billicare was doing

looking through some charts, bonds are the ongoing long for now, a lot of deflationary pressures otherwise

kinda weird too that indexes are on pause, though VX is adjusting, the advent of a new VX era (RIP 2010-19)

on high TF, aud/jpy just falls and CB intervention are attempts to stave the runoff, further deleveraging

the plus side, with risk lowered further, the rout has a chance to flip, maybe with yields

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  #71 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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low volume push, watching the VX wrap around while indexes become unstuck, CL paused

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  #72 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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kinda just in the EOM dead zone, return to PP

if VX focused, have to underline conditions for HH

given stimulus and other discounting measures, CV rates

eye of the storm, could teeter out of a semi-calm pause

but each passing day with stability decreases this

fewer limit breakers, less spiking, normalcy

VX energy resolved into quarter end

//

start of month, two-sided, pushing low range, tick has been under on low volume, some accumulation

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  #73 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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thinking about blockchain as an explicit ledger, CB backed digital banking would avoid..

shadow banking, unknown DXY supply, as dollar demand from early 80s remains

historical representations of currency here , dominant currency prevalence causes disorder, harder to maintain

the security, ownership of crypto is problematic, loss of electricity, forgotten access, supply is reduced, but at least an increase is tracked

so yeah, blockchain could help with this huge accounting problem if problematic

//

just working on some smalls and let things develop, energy boosted but need more ticks

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  #74 (permalink)
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stuck market is stuck, can just grab smalls, needs development

supportive attempts in energy, but overall still heavy sentiment

CV uncertainty, trapped between isolation and exposure risks

//

something more collaborative besides pointing fingers please

now is not the time, past politics is a non-issue vs present danger

maybe a training ground and checkpoint for benevolence

//

boj mmt seems to be less subtle vs fed titration approach

lesson learned from sudden moves roiling mkts back then

supportive to avert meltdown crises but will not get in the way

compared to losses from accumulating topix in a DT

dxy for yen to maintain weak multi decade trend

//

so fed drips dxy, which counteracts 6JEA supply, infl

the FX market is a different beast, will explore further

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  #75 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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in the mix, GC still pushing, crowded, BTC simmering, DXY via 6E still there

volume kinda shrivels, on pause, light

physical metal premium not fun, stackers must be nodding

still watching the VX, CL

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  #76 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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another uncertain moment, CL dove, but GC too, faded risk, similar sentiment

CL climbing after hours, some sympathy with DXY, there are FOMC minutes after EIA

good friday closed, still low volume, flows positive

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  #77 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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supportive events, crude turn, CV reduction to offset downtime

slow attempts to pull with a dragging effect, sidelines watching

tech capping at upper range, dampeners throughout

normalcy, carries return, cycle lows, whenever discounting finishes

the lost year to the start of a new decade, leap year, etc

//

like a low volume end of week, noting GC, 6B, CL, DXY

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  #78 (permalink)
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CL aside, the look at FX brings 6A as the carry, not AJ, as borrowers demand an increasing pool of DXY to fund AUD

metals do confirm ahead, and the coincidence of bond-equity increases such as LQD, HYG, JNK, TLT

mind the inflation is a bit wonky, artificial local air pockets like in GC or even consumer goods, even CL

supply is suppressed causing a temporary shift in price higher on demand, supply needs to equilibrate

commodities aside, index vol also shows developing signals vs 2008, also confirmed by profile

consider the DXY and vol are pushing the high range, with CB credit expansion in the mix

combined with index flows a fast corrective wave, if smaller participants, more agile, and also in reference to nomura

commod infl effect reaction to agris exposure first

then slower reaction to DJIA and SPY once sentiment returns, as CL drags

TL;DR, until total commodity picks up with sentiment, SOH but at least initial glimpses of pickup

//

the bank crisis finger pointing as moral hazard put a cap on bailouts

whereas the shift to CB-Treas removes this sentiment

as a market mover, an attempt to ameliorate sell-offs puts faith somewhere

the attempt to inject credit must work to repair liquidity if not, titrate more

seen more as a backstop than stimulus, the fed pulls back if overdone

not a panacea, or backed into a corner, black weds situation just relief, ensuring faith

basis incentives offered to banks, continue debt ops, but buybacks stopped to repair c-bonds

where some corporations side stepped moral hazard by grabbing too much low yield debt

mixed into tranches, like healthcare insurance providing for sick cases, CV-19 biz effects

some overburdened firms might drop, the toxicity gets weeded out, without the panic

overall, some pain, but interesting in parallel with CV-19 as a survivalist allegory, mini-reset

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  #79 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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slow build after S1 low range, some positive flows, volume tapered

NQ is interesting in shallow territory, less CV sensitive maybe

both CL and GC pushing, maybe a watch on BTC

//

buildup without CL, light curl some sustain but low volume, RS watch

carry confirm, GC still running, BTC slight recovery, bonds ok

CV a reasonable pass for earnings, energy as damper

accumulators being rewarded front running optimism

TBH, not much resist and sell zone is far below

market starting to see R-R into rest of year

wierd gap way below from squeeze tho

dip buying to preserve the momo

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  #80 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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RB not with CL, lower refining activity, CAD event tomorrow pre

virtual and automated plays still need mfg but interesting

//

sticky area to be in, VX roll and CL, but GC off a bit

have to clear the S zone though flows in check

//

week goal, stay positive, monthly stop run

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  #81 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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further signs of turnaround theme, CL following with industrials

been focused on longer term areas but working on small intra

moving towards a region with a more significant profile

NQ was early, a few weeks ago, others catching up

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  #82 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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re-build in a neutral day, drag from CL, BTC has some utility, halvening, GC still positive

volume slightly lower, VX trying to adjust, may - june CL difference pretty wide, after roll

anyone taking negative crude delivery, imagine selling and having to pay the buyer

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  #83 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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NQ is pushing, though DXY strong, CL recovered some, GC bid as well

interesting stuff on buyouts and prevention during this phase

interesting key is to factor draws and then avoid that scenario by going small
this tweak alone can offer more stability, in expectation and psychology

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  #84 (permalink)
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Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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low volume to start, but following through after CV sentiment

push cycle on the first wave repaired some damage, allow for return wave

could say that things are poised for positivity, but still sensitive to bad news

dip buying aside from energy might be supportive, CV pass card on earnings

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  #85 (permalink)
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just watching negative flows while CL tries to recover

note diff NQ vs ES, with some tech earnings and FOMC this week

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  #86 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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harsh downdraft to pivot without bumping past drop zone again

the detail of the corrective wave along with VX and CL should reveal LT

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  #87 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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after yday push a cwave to test the rally strength in play

VX higher CL and 6A pulls, all after EU negativity washing out drug news

indu data seems to drop out tran most, but consumer side not so much

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  #88 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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PM sticky after initial drop in AM, saw some attempt to push

flows might be from covering, but again, just stuck near lows

VX returned to start of week, 6A weak, a bit problematic for risk

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  #89 (permalink)
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moderate push, with small caps leading, indu lagging, but CL fading the strong push

response at resistance but might be overcome as area is eaten away, VX follow through

something reasonably positive would have to cause the overhead supply to disappear

asia is not as responsive, and 6A is a bit on hold, fading away the creeping upside a bit

with an upside bias that ran through various areas on the break down, still watching VX

the downturn areas, dropped on less volume vs upturn, a bit forced on the sell side

pressure was there in the past week, perhaps renewed pressure at reloading areas

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  #90 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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VX dropping while low volume resides with gap up, new normal

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  #91 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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optimistic, the grind is in part from VX, recovery, etc.

maybe following on asian footprints, seeing their turnaround

position buildup possibly, but the grind from below is not rushed

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  #92 (permalink)
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Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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drop after grind, losing steam and eating away conviction, VX refresh

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  #93 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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able to retake. honestly hard to know so just put limit orders at lows and capture shakeout, enough but not to much size and more spread out

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  #94 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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interpreting this as a mark up, and waiting for a sale

neutralizing antibodies is the key word, this was front-run

not often does r3 get passed, expecting retrace at least

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  #95 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
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yeah this is not a healthy pullback, something is up

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  #96 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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hard dips bought, retested, just watching energy

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  #97 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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the index vol earlier this year presented a good case study

which led to seeking vol in other instruments for further examples

was tinkering a little in FX land, watching the USD/ZAR coaster

and also from a more swing-like, HODLing perspective in stocks

realizing that the criterion were universal, screening for aspects

where range was really just a vol function, tied to relative duration

the trader can select via size and time a comfortable level of risk

tied to levels which are a decent guideline alongside visual areas

can now appreciate the granularity of micro sizing, in futs and FX

a grey area still is options, greeks, curious about charting these

the defined leverage is interesting, but even better, hedging holds

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  #98 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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sort of avoiding these sites and affiliated, turning to tradervue and wordpress for entries instead
will say stuff is looking a bit faded, but another injection or oomph could continue the ride

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  #99 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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quick test of mt4 seems ok, data feed a bit blippy, but better sizing and risk for learning

5day

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  #100 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 96 since Dec 2012
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found mt5 server connect with low latency, ea auto things, hedging etc, needs backtest env

other positional hedges.. sell longer term c, buy st p.. use only 1/2 position since delta 2x
hedge the hedge with more st counters..
watch vol, timing more critical for leg out.. but can capture using a sell lt p to reduce delta gradually
no matching c, used to increase pos eventually when closing out initial hedge

looking at vac, still like the attempt using subunit strat only, since offers more instant im response

lots of attempts at full spike, good responses, but safety better in ad and synthetics

//

also have to make note of the auto method, not quite fan due to assumption of mkt condition, changes eventually needs tuning.. so unless from ground up black box is hard to manage

there may be utility in using it for searching, as there are countless inst, but even then the results would require top-down context to unravel what is meaningful

//

though lt nrg seems ok, st seems fady, wierd sharp v wants pb
strangely, ng is better off, sort of telling on sustainability, cleaner tech

//

dixie test via eu tl, sometimes these nfp pumps sell off, esp at top of lt range

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