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2020 vision st.


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2020 vision st.

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  #31 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 87 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

another pause, slow on DT, might be ranged, but closing in on pivot

almost fell flat for early entry, caught, but bounced, too much strangeness

wobbling and then spiking, but still ranged, short trap, then bull trap, then short trap

level is strong, decent entry but afraid of breakthrough past level, also noticed stop outs

YM lagging but hit S1, trying for a similar close since mid-week

CL, rig count rip, started eyeing VX and $TICK during bounce, risk and flows flagging down

feels like failed attempts higher, strength being sold into, earlier dip formed a support

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  #32 (permalink)
boston ma
 
 
Posts: 87 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

filtering ST can avoid some variation, previously causing issues that forced LT frames

but LT causes lag, some issues of late entry can be attributed to LT, also a risk

dialing back frame with the filter is more responsive, but can still call early exit

however, the ST exit is a lower risk than a late LT entry, acceptable

some methods exist to continue holding through a ST, but still adjusting

price is still the best indicator, and with that levels, both non-lagging

naked price action is still dangerous though

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  #33 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 27 since Feb 2020
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6E, CL, GC ramped

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  #34 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 27 since Feb 2020
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mixed, ok on DT, consolidating, tried both ways but not following

finally moving past S1, maybe S2

out on the bounce, enough

been trying to revamp, signals kinda got me shook

however, they are valid, the minors are what need work

details point to simply taking better areas

trouble starts from initiating from poor formation

lately the EU close has been providing fodder

action on 6E corroborates

bounce on last week's closing area

daily S2 now target, interesting and quick

wow overshoot to weekly S1

superfast reversal character changed on a dime

area is wild, repair, another consolidation, bonkers

after pause looking for better turn in area

price action is like push down but absorbed, flows too

had revisited last thurs low

breach of weekly S1, retouch daily S2, may return to daily S1, weekly pivot

having trade hiccups and get bashed, trying to commit fewer misdeeds

resting, but found buys have to wait another hour or so, but that nears the close

so maybe trying not to engulf on the tape for best case, let it do its thing

actually starting to look flagged, just sticking around weekly S1

able to push through daily S2, kinda waiting, might squeeze, maybe just 50% retrace

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  #35 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 27 since Feb 2020
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PMI off, hit S1s, pressured bounce, S might become R, wait hourly

lot of lagging down, damage done, top of hour small news

feels like 6E up means less dollars for foreigns to buy bonds

feeding the dollar-import cycle, strong dollar, buy goods, gives dollars

which are used to buy more bonds, enabling expansionary policy

has become no man's land for a while now, waiting things out

VX, gold upping the ante, AUD/JPY unch, CL not happy

flows small neg, maybe swap positive after next hour

tough to revert, slow to a 50% retrace if any, wants this zone

still hovering at weekly S1, more damage after recoiling

had to test yesterday's sharp low, under for week

hard to press upward with momo dragging, would be slow

GC off highs, AUD/JPY actually rising, flows accumulating

on LT, kinda wedged, bit above MA, support from last week

hard trade pushing the lows, could turn so nada

50% retrace did happen and then continued DT

third test made new lows, but not engulfed

seems like a measured move, and absorbed along the way

dips are strong but the rips are also, quick and dirty

no man's land again, gotta wait for the grind to happen

AUD/JPY isn't moving as much, gold no new high

let the bots do the work, and then get on at the next station

kinda like, ok, we move to this price, how does everyone feel here

wait for reaction, behavioral and then prep for next adjustment

another 50% retrace in action, retest lows maybe after

kinda like how the waves hit the shore and then froth with the next set

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  #36 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 27 since Feb 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 0 received

WAVE ENERGY LEVELS (tl;dr next post)

concept of a battery providing current to generate load

motive force gets consumed once charge depletes

there are patches where inertia takes over

example of negative charge

until cells get depleted, the potential energy state can be shifted

there may be minor inertia or lagging late kinetic energy prior to settling

the developing energy state may be unstable, or unable to hold

the balance may be disrupted, prompting adjustments

one may consider the overall super-trend, expansionary

dotted with pockets of contraction, or recharging

another view is the absorption of counter-energy, consumption

similar to KERS, regenerative braking, example of charge absorption, early accumulation, higher risk

charge banks may become flooded or overloaded during absorption, causing continuation

in the case of a pullback, the banks may adjust for increasing demand and absorb further

this type of action actually generates more potential energy, causing a further shift in levels

instead of the initial fib extension target, the secondary target is now an option

another view of this is HH, HL, a failure of this view indicates excess un-absorbable energy

basically, formation of a LL, meaning get out of the way until further visible absorption

this potential energy risk means safely waiting until HH formation can safely push through

or, in or words, when the banks are fully charged and in sync, confluent, etc. (image in next post)

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  #37 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 27 since Feb 2020
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happy 2-22-2020 day @ 22:22:22

the initial wave is the charging wave, pullbacks exist, causing some psychological weakness, higher risk

the banks may deplete multiple times, giving up charge to refill from overflow, the second counter wave

the middle or third wave, transition to fewer pullbacks, stronger agreement and more consistent behavior

lower risk in the third wave, but differentiating between a fourth counter-wave pullback and new trend is tough

in a strong third wave charge, you can observe a range-like, compression behavior, charge absorption

there is energy spent on moving to further potential energy levels, but more energy absorbed than spent

a strong third wave, the result of strong charge (HH) and a weak pullback (LL) gives a strong fifth wave

full discharge occurs during the fifth wave, and can be very dynamic, there is a lot of excess energy here

for this reason countering the trend here is difficult, a lot of energy is needed to absorb such movement

the turn here is easier to spot, as all the charge has been spent, exiting prior or during strength is advised


the above example, holds charge through the close indicating continuation, does not deplete overnight, and continues the next day

for options of premium sellers who are are literally selling this energy, the optimal point is here

the energy burst has settled, and premium decay is setting in, gamma is finally decreasing

at one wave extreme, one might sell premium, use the credit to take advantage of the directional bias, creating a spread, and buy back the spread

even better, if a previous leg was initiated, the spread can be hedged in case there is some unexpected movement against it, a temporary condor, maybe butterfly if less risk averse or volatile

//

potential to kinetic energy, some charge has been spent, in an intermediate state

this type of energy helps form an init criteria, maintains the inertia and shows depletion

a motive force from a wave in motion will meet certain resistance upon which work is done

the wave power from stored energy will dictate the amount of total potential energy converted

//

you can see the internal forces smashing against a turbulent area temporarily

this is an area of importance, energy was devoted to maintaining time here

likewise, a resting point such as an open or close can be a stored state, or potential energy source

you can also imagine a news event perturbing levels, this energy quickly dissipates

and the overall energy may cause a return to previous areas, but the disruption eats up some charge

the shift may eventually tip the balance and the potential energy state will shift

//

TL;DR

price is the original, non-lagging indicator, the action and relative status, an indicator of energy

while we cannot react so quickly during a news event, the observation of the potential energy state

provides fodder for a bounce, a weak one indicating continuation and a strong reaction, a paradigm shift

either way fast or slow, the potential energy level dictates how much energy is spent

the pure price is helpful here regardless of time, volume or flow, though this extra detail may help

between states, the return to an intermediate level will create a charge state dictating further movement

// extra, misc.

due to this, indicators are reverse-engineered from price and are inherently lagging

indicator-dependent algos will lag, the longer the TF the larger the lag, so HFT must compete in ST

without a filter, algos can be manipulated, the human advantage is reading action and levels

an algo based on price might still react via indicators for risk, if one has levels in mind

these can be used in the case of an overshoot, tailing, etc. creating actionable, low-risk zones

however, there is a feedback loop, for example at the extreme, limit up/down events triggering breakers

so, waiting for a decrease in activity is best, pullbacks, giving time for adjustment

dead cat bounces, parabolic, ST vol is not fun and risky, too fast and though algos lag, they are quick enough

maybe it is best to let the machines do the lifting at extremes and take the deliberate, intermediate sections

in the past and often, recently, at extremes, charge states have turned on a dime, in less than a minute

//

stuff about COV, delayed onset and similarity to charge states, feedback, etc.

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  #38 (permalink)
Ankara/Turkey
 
 
Posts: 2 since Sep 2019
Thanks: 13 given, 1 received

Thanks good explain


bobwest View Post
This is an issue with every trend-following method or system: there are both trends and not-trends, and the not-trends will kill you, when your objective is to get into a trend and hold it. The range reverses just about then the trend would have started.

You can always go to a lower timeframe, but you may find that the same trend/range phenomenon exists there, too.

I wish you success in this, but be aware of the issues. They are basic to the choice of using a trend-following approach. "If I could just not trade during these ranges" has been said, with feeling, by trend traders for a very long time. (And I include myself here . )

I won't suggest an answer because I don't have one yet. I should point out that a pure system approach has some pluses, in that trade executions are always according to the rules, but also that a totally rules-based approach means that you have to have all the possible variations already figured out and incorporated into the rules. Which is something else that is intrinsic to the basic choices that have been made, this time in going for a system instead of a discretionary approach. (Pure discretionary traders face their own issues, and still have the trend/range one.)

Good luck. I hope you manage these issues successfully.

Bob.


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  #39 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 27 since Feb 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 0 received

Yeah, the range dilemma can be painful if there is no cutoff switch. One can imagine a zone or agreed upon area as the default range. Going outside this area actually forms another range. Ranges seem like pauses, resolving, consolidating, good times to rest until movement resumes.

This is similar to tinkering around with cars, swapping an intake, a piggyback ECU, blow-off valve, simple swaps.. you can achieve incremental performance and mileage increases, but to swap turbos, that is a bit much. With tinkering, you can adjust settings and poke around to see what works. This is similar.

Sometimes things break and you just go back to the last setting. Not trying to rebuild a section, just improve what works. The mentality remains, if it ain't broke don't fix it. However, if it doesn't break and feels better, why not.

The turbo swap analogy might be like going semi-auto, requiring a deeper understanding of the internals, and stuff will break in the process for sure. You can lessen the amount of failures by first optimizing what is available without breaking everything down. Not quite top-down, but maybe top-middle and back, and then maybe eventually deeper from top-middle-and finally bottom. The middle is more familiar territory, you can find your way back to the middle.

Maybe you have to break each part down to understand the synergy, re-work things and build back up iteratively. Oh yeah, having a good dyno helps, just like back-testing and diagnostics.

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  #40 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 27 since Feb 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 0 received


the feel is slow DT accum, some fast drops

50% retrace from the year, on 03-20 contracts, hitting MA

those who want out can get out, some staying in but hedging

with AUD/JPY def risk off, CL down, GC kinda up, 6E inching back up

already approaching daily/weekly S3s

strat is to sit out, haha, mostly too fast, too furious

after bouncing from low of range now hitting top of range within 20 minutes wow

def a LT frame, healthy bounce but too fast for all parties

srsly, only thing that can react is a preset level order

feels more like a standard cover, flows down

bounce from LT MA to a ST MA

so far more entertaining than workable, those auto-bots hard at work

still grinding that upper range, top of the hour

slow pokes, and late risers want some of that PB, getting jelly

might not get it, hit the LT 50% and MA and now looking like inv HS

should be heading in ST DT, but somehow holding, possible strength

ppl still see value, it's like a 50% off sale from the past month, not sure who

lots of charge spent to push down, spiky spiky springs up

honestly feels bouncy both ways now, the DT bounce won previously, but feels tired

like the gas pedal is pressed, there is some braking, but they let off the accelerator for a bit

let it coast, and then the braking energy gets spit back out, but some charge is lost from heat/friction

the spike frequency makes for a prickly situation, now rested at S off range low

this particular PB is packing some additional momo, hold on for a bit

afterburners are blasting, flows neg, but GC dropped, CL upped

they burnt out the fuel for a while, brakes screeching, HL, nah, ug close @ S3s

FUTS ARE STRONK TONITE

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September 15, 2020


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