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2020 vision st.

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  #11 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

Not really a direct indicator, but having GC, CL, another index in the mix is useful for direction. Focusing on one instrument is a narrow view.

For example, 7/17/19, at open, NQ climbs, while ES, CL drop and GC rises. Again, indirect and semi-correlated, but a definite visual on something mis-aligned.

From the previous post, on the double tap, the moving average seems to be a touch point. A failure to cross indicates a second wave in progress for a reversal, testing the range boundary. A cross seems to invalidate the second wave and allows further room for continuation or range extension. From an order flow standpoint, some may use the moving average for entry. A cross-over might run stops, attract later entries, etc. while price that forms the second wave would find exhaustion due to lack of further entries during the second wave from lack of cross-over at the moving average.

Using the above method, a measured 50% retrace should not cross-over the moving average. If so, the second wave is likely invalidated. This creates an entry midway and also implies an extension from the retrace for a second wave target. Finally, due to nature of the second wave, this also becomes a possible first wave entry for reversal.

Here, I am not sure if this creates a measurable move on a longer time frame since the utility of this fib crosses over the trading day. For a swing trade overnight, this may be a useful tool for estimating the next wave series. One weird possibility to check this is to use a smaller time frame and see if this might provide a similar fractal move.

Unfortunately, trying this seems to create confusion as now there are fibs within fibs to measure, but the waves seem to play out - a strong 5 wave with a 3 retrace followed by another 5 wave, all of this smaller time frame mess creating the 3 wave at a longer time frame.

Somehow this might be the mechanic behind formation of HH HL or LL and LH, but seeing the highs and lows is easier, though not predictably quantifiable this way, more reactionary. If one looks carefully, each leg seems to get filled out, drawing scribbles through the fib ladder. This filling tendency pulls in the moving average, and solidifies a level as support or resistance.

Options people get to do their thing, trades get filled, stuff gets swept through during these pauses. And day traders fall asleep, then walk away the moment the action spurts back and freak out with a late entry, get eaten by a retrace, closing the last moment as stops get hit, and the trend continues as they were accurate but imprecise with their entry. So more entries extend the trend until another pause ad nauseum, staring at the charts.

The pullback has to be sufficient to create an extension that breaks through a previous filling. A tailing candle may be a sign of stops getting hit, signaled by a strange order imbalance against the actual trend. The action may cause counter trend trade entries which also get stopped out adding fuel to the extension. In this way and with further late entries, the imbalance may get corrected with more filling before trending. A volume spike could be a useful signal to confirm such turns. Sometimes tails can be early tests of levels with an initial reaction, but returns to move back past the tested level, so caution is needed here.

There is a variation in cycles caused by a different pause. These seem to be final pushes that are eventually met with a reversal. What should be at least two waves morphs into a single push, ending in exhaustion. The consolidated pause also causes hesitation, wrong-sided bets and then a squeeze combined with late entries. The estimated move is uncertain here, price is in discovery mode. One may follow the bounce using the moving average here, and a cross beyond the average may be a sign of weakness. The wave count is thrown off, and late entries expecting a final push here may aid in the reversal. The magnitude of the push can also be estimated by the steepness of the moving average. Here, a parabolic move would greatly escape the moving average only to be met by a hard reversal. Or, a shallow move might become further compressed, but still result in a less violent culmination of a trend. The pull of a steeper move might be stronger on the average and imply a larger move in the opposite direction.

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  #12 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

From previous, noticing the double taps and waves, some are more drawn out but they exist. The extended wave can be taken as a sign that the counter wave strength may be weaker. EWT would call out 5 wave vs 3 wave here, but I usually do not keep close count. Divergence happens at times, and a possible 5 wave count is just preparation or compression for a strong counter wave. Again, the differentiation is whether there is a moving average cross to bring in further entries to confirm the wave strength.

Looking at YM during these long stretches of highs, YM seems to complete ranges instead of continually pushing. YM is interesting because of the industrial factor, sometimes correlated with CL. YM pushed strongly from the low range alongside CL, while ES and NQ remained bid the whole time.

Going back to March 11, 2019 I saw RTY, ES, NQ all bid without pullback, but here YM offered an opportunity for entry at the low range, a laggard. Yesterday, 1/21/19 RTY was unbid and sold, at least YM responded in a wider range on both sides. Instead of attempting a continuation in NQ or ES, YM can provide a better entry. NQ and ES can remain proxies however, they are configured optimally for entry and exits.

Also looking back to YM on CL inventory Weds 10:30 ET, scanning for larger CL swings shows a light correlation but still stronger than the influence of CL on ES or NQ. $INDU and energy are a larger % of YM. RTY, ES and NQ all paused around inventory, but YM runs with CL more. For example an entry influenced by a CL dip might be more pronounced with YM. Then, perhaps ES has less CL influence and NQ has the least. So, on days where CL might be avoided, for example CL is pushing higher but indexes are falling, NQ might work, maybe RTY. RTY at this point is a bit strange, there are days with compression, while the other majors are moving, but YM is still an alternative to ES and NQ.

NQ seems like a dunk in big wave surfing. Big ride and turbulence, or maybe fast maneuvers on a short board, whereas ES is the paddle board out on open water, going with the tide and YM is the long board, cruising around, big easy. You know you are going to fall off the board before really catching the wave, but when NQ is right with you, there is no comparison. ES is still a snooze fest to watch on the DOM, all those sticky options, delta gamma and whatnot in the way. ES is the most in balance, there is less order flow imbalance. So, YM might be a good balance for now. Another way to put this is, you watch the big wave surfing going on the NQ good for entry and exit confirmation, perhaps ES is good for trend confirmation, because NQ whipsaw is not fun, and then YM as the actual ride itself. Not sure if this will really work, because watching ES, NQ and CL alongside YM might be a bit much.

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  #13 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

The wait and see method is active not passive, like hunting or fishing in a dynamic environment. Developing a bias or pre-entry sentiment, basically reasons not to be in. Until those conditions become favorable, entries are not really necessary. And moreover, if these sentiments change or the bias needs to be adjusted the entry has not been made, there is no commitment to cloud judgment. During a position, the bias should not be fixed as well, bias should be updated and kept in check.

For example, today in CL sentiment is still down though lower. The entry may not be the lowest or cheapest possible, but there is always cheaper. Until the bias changes, the waves and winds are not with a long entry. Basically, working off a sold environment. Another example is NQ, where downside conviction was cut short, but the upside movement was limited as well. Small clips and scalps might work, but there is turbulence, possibly a pause for earnings, uncertainly prevails. The CL bounce also pulled up YM, though the index still drags off S2. Tailing shows support, already tested twice on open and mid-day hourly. Some small conviction, but not enough boost.

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  #14 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

Interesting day, saw down wave develop at open after touching R1. There was a profile gap on the way to pivot that broke, hitting the next profile area and retracing. Trend continuation with a pause at pivot to S1, also another profile area. Continuation day suggests a drive lower toward S2, for a second down wave.

Corona viruses are pretty common, recovery is similar to flu. The ongoing containment and vigilance is a good sign. If so, then the S1 area and VPOC is a good settle. However, the lows still need to be re-tested.

Also interesting, volume is increasing through the day. S2 was touched, but seeing return to weekly VPOC for settle as the second wave is resolving selling pressure. Flows also confirm this and the steady pace rising is a good sign, some large bids. One thing is that earnings for major companies is yet to come, so there are some expectations built in to hold onto.

An interesting MLK gap in between S2 and S1 and also when S1 is breached on the first wave, the price seems to return back there after the second wave, washing out early buys and late sellers. With Fridays and options, fair price settlement might be the magnet. Close below S1 might be a sign of weakness, time to just watch the close, bias is neutral due to end of the week, closing out, etc. CNY.

Apparently, the year of the rat is the first animal in the zodiac cycle. The bubonic plague started in 1347, the year of the pig, which is the end of the cycle, continuing in the year of the rat. Kinda interesting that this corona virus "epidemic" started similarly, just coincidental. Bat/snake transmission possibilities?

This last part of the day is a bit harder, but the sell condition still exists, so these pullbacks are not reversals unfortunately, but the selling is abating, getting absorbed and resolving higher, pointing at S1. Selling condition almost resolved, but still weak at close under S1. The day has also generated large pivot points for the next session.

Things to correct: Made several positions, was early on the reversal, causing some pain. Saw early sell cycle but early exit during pullback and missed lunch time drop past pivot. Re-entered short for scalps only. Holding onto initial position would have allowed safer adds instead of scalps.

Things that helped: having another weekly profile and pivot points ready alongside. Waiting for confirmation of selling wave instead of trying to enter early and getting chopped up.

Additional observation: Following crude down was a leading sentiment. There was a pop up MLK weekend for CL that was continually driven down on news that should have responded higher - libya, EIA, etc. Also, gold and bonds are confirmatory, FX too. Risk off?

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  #15 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

browsing around, found that the coronavirus is similar to SARS and a bit like MERS, with a bat source, bats seem to wreak havoc as incubators, ebola as well

the virus has to bind to a human receptor, and SARS infects stronger, MERS has a longer incubation time

if the receptor binding strength is related to incubation time, then SARS was worse

so back in 2003, SARS took a half year to resolve. if this coronavirus is weaker, and with the previous precautions already in place, would expect the fear to abate

the dot-com 2000-2 effect already in place, 2003 was a springboard for a rally and SARS may have had minimal effect

the current environment is different, tiptoeing, balancing act, but at least the fears do not compound yet

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  #16 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

feels controlled, pre-FOMC, earnings. nothing in the corona virus narrative really changed. seems stuck, so out early. crude seems less finicky after having sold off. FOMC sentiment seems to be more risk off

there is jumpiness but strangely also contained, the profile returned to earlier months, hesitation in gold, reading about shifts in CTA hedges, etc. options getting re-positioned

today is a let things resolve day, digest and wait for the outcome since there is volume everywhere, some vol but less direction, any reason is as good as the next, Kobe RIP

still some upside but that would be returning to the clouds right now, would be healthier to recharge back on earth. feels like resistance to the upside for now but all is orderly

break to test lows would confirm but would also be a selling extreme to prime an upward cycle, while NKD might give better moves, HG and 6A not having fun either

6J balanced by 6E weakness or $DXY strength, but AUD/JPY risk off due to 6A, compressed VX GC ZN confirm the pause, weaker instruments returning confirms rebound

also interesting BTC moving, halvening, flagging, etc. targets of 20K but don't forget your wallet password

unable to sustain rallies, keeps testing lower but still in controlled fashion, re-adjustment, just staring at EU close, EU influence and close may be masking some risk

coronavirus also in EU, more of a world traveler than most unfortunately, scandal/conspiracy the source being from a canadian virus lab and covertly exported to china, would have to compare strains

price is sandwiched between lower profile and range but presses lower, pending high cycle, likely covering, pressing up slowly but matching downside hesitation, no conviction yet till S2 break

S2 proved to be resistance after testing a few times, each a weaker attempt, cannot clear S2, not enough yet to break through, retry after second wave dip to test lower mid-range, early buyers to be tested, flagging

avoiding late PM trades with FOMC and tech earnings if possible, today felt like an earnings rout, new lows in NKD

can long into down bias or sell and try to avoid spikes, either is kinda painful unless the hi-lo level is favorable

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  #17 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

feeling like the virus events are delayed, after the fact, non-event instead of sell the news

already hitting pivot after flagging, double resistance with VWAP, delta turning again

would like a bigger pullback or dip to create a move to fill the weekend gap, S1, S2

the monthly profile returned back to range, wondering if another extension is feasible

area is rounding out, forming a bottoming pattern, resistance broke into next zone

large bids earlier on DOM, perhaps targeting R1 but then the gap is above that area

forgot about the other closed markets in asia that open later in the week

one interpretation is this is a retrace with YM having a larger pullback, larger flagging for S1, S2

approaching gap, GC down CL up, big delta, push extended, gap might resist

starts getting dangerous here, multi-day flag formation starting to form

6A, 6E and HG never made HH, ZN, 6J and NKD seem poised or coiled, something is wrong

reaction seems to be shrinking from gap, but delta needs to change

delta changing, break of R1, pivot points to S1, S2 from flag

weird pin bar in AAPL last close and another mid-month, pumpy earnings, calls outnumber puts 2:1, being sold?

took heat on the pump when high gap was touched early on the DT, believe to be intact, but psyched out

kinda have a better idea of timing, GC and CL confirm, today would be akin to partly trading pre-earnings AAPL

today i learned that from the moment i observe something is not right, i still can wait for the development

i will call this the something is wrong retest, the denial continuation and then confirmation initiation wave

this offers better entry and also confirmation of the move in the direction is a good psychological booster

also checking fib extension target beforehand will give a general guideline on areas to watch

it's a good goal to aspire to - sweat less, stay level-headed and confident, profit

also, resisted urge to chase higher, due to unknown gap conditions and late cycle environment

i imagine if i tried that method, i would be holding bags at the highs instead, which is more dangerous

delta has shifted, being able to retouch that area may be difficult since the first touch was rejected

but there is still time although expecting LH and not HH due this rejection, sort of a fading transition

there is a vaccine for corona based on the viral receptors, gotta fast track the thing. usage might select for worse variants however. emergency HIV anti-viral is a stop-gap solution. also surprised SARS vaccine does not exist, MERS does

currently in grey area, 50/50 chance to stretch and test, can see R2 as extension after the last pump, but a little like expecting water to flow uphill, retest failing

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  #18 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

back in weekly profile range, resting at pivot, retracing

partly seeing a deformed cup and handle more evident on range chart

handle is being developed, hidden div

unless resolution of flagging, wait for EIA reaction

crude set up at S1 in sell mode, test weekly low

subdued reaction, needs a significant low to capitulate

earlier exits due to FOMC, earnings uncertainty

pivot held, handle needs time to form

selling flushy, after big bid pumps all day yesterday

index off lows, 6E too, but 6A, HG new lows, BTC going higher

approaching retrace levels, pause and EU close

drugs on market available to stem coronavirus

still feels like pushing on upper weekly profile range

big retrace, can turn, gold and bonds building after FOMC

today, incorporated a short term profile for entry and turns

got caught in some turbulence around VWAP, so mostly flat

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  #19 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

looks like the repairman is at work filling areas in

cut through S1 and reflected at S2, to seek S1 fill, also the 50% retrace

support in energy, HG, 6A bounce, BTC spiky

filled, no mas, tires balanced rolling at VWAP

out of this jitter fest, bounced at S1, VWAP

let's see if price can hang during filling

keep hitting range of the weekly profile

push ends with extension target hit, almost half after close


corona virus is worse with developed immune systems, older people

bats can act as reservoirs, lacking this system, been studying them in Wuhan

fresh news on this is like a buy reaction, supportive, BTMFD, not yet ready to break

WHO meeting at CL pit close, out on a break in case of a breakout, limited upside vs more down

almost seems tradeable but not really, quick and scalpy, still, driving up, wierd R-R


some chinese company geely is funding troubled aston martin, the original tesla model s

elon claims the cyber truck is inspired by a 007 amphibious lotus, bought for >1M

seems like the aston bulldog too, elon should donate to aston with his payout tranches

keep wondering about $TSLA pump, seems ripe after hitting extension target

chunks of OTM calls, some puts, high IV, kinda hedgy for premium


today was ok an hour before noon ET, and near the close, but not viable due to after hours releases

noticed hesitation building in the PM, some exhaustion and decided to let the news play out

hesitation built into news unable to break pivot, but quarter to close, flows turned and flipped at pivot

interesting to watch the buildup, but not participatory move, need to be more deliberate not gappy

will be another retest, just glad not positioned into news

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  #20 (permalink)
boston ma
Posts: 81 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11 given, 26 received

retraced half quickly and overnight, back in weekly profile

some might see this as a buy op, but early and momo

sells here are feasible but bouncy, basically fast open scalp then none

seeing some early big bids, covering near S1, wait for resolution, extension target, mid-week settle

re-test seeing bids, basically the statement whether glass half empty or half full, above / below settle

learning toward the stick save, bouncy, bottom of range, still early has to resolve a bit more

S1 was week open gap down, we are pressing lows, HG, NKD, ZN new lows, waiting for HH, LL

cum delta turned in area of cheapness, maybe work back to open if this holds, kinda staring at NKD

wondering if the airplane is approaching the runway for landing yet, low $TICK, high VX

think the ego has landing gear, but whippy and having a fit due to turbulence, ATR needs to calm down

unfortunately, S1 became resistance, the glass is half empty or revisiting the gap to fill up on items

taking a stand against this violent move and sitting back to watch the carnage, gotta fight for your right

S1 trying to be retaken, the battle of the optimists and pessimists is upon us, first pause, CL lows, 6J highs

major indexes breaching the squiggly areas from yesterday, suppressed, may revisit area as resistance

big oof, taking a small bit of the bounce after the press, kinda checking if sure it wants to keep going

extreme there felt like a stop hunt, checking the demand, revisit might not bounce back, 6A, $TICK HL, need HH

dead cat-ish, EU close soon, high volume, steady but whippy sells, new weekly lows, week is a flop

china PMI, GOOGL earnings next month, so EU closes may be the turning point, taking a small bounce

some OPEC bump on CL, indexes play along for a little, rig counts at 1 EST, EOM, week, afternoon action

new lows, but YM responding with CL bounce, finally turning but S1 is resistance

maybe we can break through with some retrace action, NKD small bounce, seems to want to rest in squiggles

feels like a hold out now, to fill, pause, the last rumbles into the week, CL still strong to kick start

with this EU close, the UK no longer a member, may the brexit be with you, and with that an early exit


midway through the livermore book, reads more like a movie

most movies like boiler room, margin call, rogue trader, wolf of, wall st. 1/2 have a negative spin, big short was interesting though and the bank was pretty neat

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August 5, 2020

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