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Not Another PAT Journal

  #41 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

Today was a good learning experience. I was able to read price action decently, but at the same time committed to a lot of mistakes. Fortunately, I ended up nearly breakeven for the day (slight profit but overall loss after commission).

Before the review, I'm going to list out mistakes made today.

1) Revenge trading
2) Not sticking to conviction (aka scare money)
3) Creating too many noise (i.e., looking at too many things generating different info)

Bar 1 - opens with a very similar trade as yesterday, looked above overnight high and failed. Also sets up a nice pinbar. Went short at close.
Bar 2- closed at breakeven. This is where I made mistake #2. I saw that there is a rising trendline (green) and 20SMA. VWAP is also around there (not shown). I scared myself out at breakeven instead of holding to my profit target, which would've been met. I made the mistake worse by going long at the close of bar 2. Stopped out for -5pt.
Bar 3 - the close of this bar created a short trigger for me. I went short but moments later, I saw that price was still above VWAP on my Tradovate chart (I thought I saw it was below VWAP on my TOS screen). So I immediately closed my position for a -1 tick loss. I realized soon after that my Tradovate chart was wrong and price was actually BELOW VWAP (it refreshed itself after I scrolled). Because of this, I missed out on a great trade which I had a great entry on. I closed my Tradovate chart immediately.
Bar 7 - Note on the right chart (30min chart) the close of this period created a poor low. This to me means price will eventually revisit and LOD is not in. Something to keep in mind as the day progresses.
Bar 11 - this is breakout of a pennant as well as inside bar on 30min chart. I went long at the break of the cyan line but immediately closed when price rejected from the 20SMA. Mistake #2 again, not sticking to my conviction. This would've produced a good winner.
Bar 12 - this is a touch trade at the close of the bar. Price is at HWB of day and channel resistance. Also carrying forward the info that poor low at current LOD. Finally got a good trade in today. Closed for +10.
Bar 13 - short trigger as it is an inside bar breakout on 30min chart (continuing with thesis above). This was an unfortunate trade as I had my take profit at LOD. Price came a few ticks from it and reversed sharply in bar 17. Stopped out at breakeven (gave a lot back, sadly).
Bar 19 - the rejection off descending yellow trendline, 20SMA, rising channel resistance, and the fact that poor low is not repaired yet gave me reasons to short at close of bar. I had my stop loss too tight and was stopped out at the spike of Bar 20.
Bar 20 - re-entered short as it breaks bar 19 low. Recovered profits with winner of +10
Bar 22 - same concept as bar 1, failed breakout of overnight low, went long.
Bar 23 - stopped out (again stop too tight on this volatile day). Re-entered long when bar turned positive again and out for +6pt.
Bar 25 - This would have been the trade of the day. Poor low repaired, excess low, break of descending trendline, break of 20SMA, big candlestick with lower shadow trapping a lot of sellers out. Unfortunately I was away.

Nevertheless, I think today was a cheap price to pay for what I have learned.

On a separate note, if anyone reads this, I am contemplating the idea of recording my review instead of typing it out. There is a lot of information that I'd like to convey for my future self and recording seems easier. Any software recommendation?







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  #42 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

Bird's eye view going into next week.

I'm watching the recent low from Friday as intermediate support. I'm also cognizant of a potential ABCD completion that would bring us to the 200SMA. A rally from current low could be strong as there aren't a lot of overhead resistance until ~3360.


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  #43 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127


What a day today. I think it went well despite the fact that price chopped around in a range all day. Before I would have been slaughtered in a market like this. But I think understanding market context and being patient with my trade kept me out of trouble.



Bar 1 - opened with gap rule in play. Monitor for reactions. Bar 1 tries to close gap and breached into yesterday's high. At this point, I am thinking sellers should not allow buyers to get back over yesterday's high.
Bar 2- sellers failed at closing gap. Buyers took them out and got above Bar 1. Bar 1 sellers have sold at bad location. Entered long.
Bar 4 - Closed for +10 here. Overnight high would've been a good target but I wanted to get a nice win to start the day. Note how bar 4 exhibited the usual look above and failed. I was not quick enough to enter a short here as I was happy with my long and did not monitor market for a while.

At this point the market pretty much chopped for a while.

Bar 15 - Noted that Bar 14 buyers attempted to defend the IB low. Bar 15 showed that they failed, entered short for breakout.
Bar 16 - price came 3 ticks from my profit target and reversed. Moved stop to break even and got taken out. This would've worked out eventually.
Bar 19 - price is developing into a potential poor/weak low, see chart below. Gap has filled but value is not overlapping. Also buyers stepped in at a very visual point (Friday's close). Went long here understanding that the sellers at poor locations are now trapped. Also confluence of the descending channel support.



Bar 20 - covered for +9, could've gotten more out of this but I didn't want to stay long for too long knowing that structures below need repairing.
Bar 21 - Since my bias was more downside, I took the touch trade at 20SMA and channel resistance. Also resistance of IB low and 38.2% retracement of the day. Loss of -6 here.
Bar 23 - as price approached 3303, by bias is short still. Now we have a broader channel resistance, 61.8% retracement, and developing POC at the time. I had a sell limit at 3303 but removed it. Instead I want to watch price for weakness. I entered short eventually when price reached 3303 and came back below. So it's a look above and failed of an important 3300 psych level with multiple confluences and structures needing repair below.
Bar 25 - this short I held targeting LOD. It looked great and at one point I had +16pt. Unfortunately, price reversed hard and I stopped myself out at +4pt. This was unexpected to me at the time but upon review, I noted a key MGI that I missed. In Bar 19, I noted that gap was filled but value did not overlap. During bar 25, value still has not overlap. I missed this. I saw that NQ value overlapped with gap fill but lost sight of the fact that ES value is still unchanged! This was a very key tell that there is potential upside, especially since a strong bear bar like bar 25 still resulted in unchanging value. This was a great lesson learned, and I'm glad at the very least I got paid to learn it.


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  #44 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

No trades today because of election. Staying away from any unexpected volatility.

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  #45 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

Now that the election week is over, looking to jump back in the market. The rally past week left behind a lot of poor structures underneath, so I am cautious with longs. Nevertheless, market may continue to certainly climb higher.

As seen below, price is sitting on a channel resistance and consolidating there so far. This tilts the favor to a potential breakout, which means ATH is in sight after. If not, there should be a sell off of which would present a decent dip buying opportunity.


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  #46 (permalink)
thoughtful
Klamath Falls OR
 
Posts: 60 since Apr 2020
Thanks Given: 21
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DoubleClick View Post
.......



Just my two cents, if anyone wants it , that big trendline you drew, I don't think it's actually making any sense. The first/leftmost anchor is a larger scale than the second one, so they don't go together -- you can't mix scales. Also, I don't think trendlines even work the way everyone thinks they do... I know that sounds nuts, but consider this... whatever two anchors you use to draw your trendline, instead of drawing a line, draw a level instead... take the vertical distance between the 2 anchor points, then project that same distance from the 2nd anchor point... THAT'S the trendline level. Noone seems to know this though. So trendlines don't actually work, but trendline levels do. Merry Xmas lol.

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