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Not Another PAT Journal

  #31 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

Mid-day update. Rough session so far but I wonder what is the odd of this happening


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  #32 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127


DoubleClick View Post
Mid-day update. Rough session so far but I wonder what is the odd of this happening


Wow. I definitely exited too early.


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  #33 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127


So it's been nearly half a year since I started this journal and so much has happened. I went through some up and down in this crazy market and learned so much about trading during this period. I took a break from posting since the market became insane and also learning to deal with the covid crisis.

Long story short, I've adapted volume profile and using market structure in general for futures trading. I discovered that from a psychological perspective, trading by price is more suitable for me than watching price action develop. It suits me better to analyze and come up with a game plan pre-market and knowing which levels to trade/skip/take profit.

With that said, I'm going to papertrade and log my thoughts on this until I become profitable before I use real account.

6/12/20

Pre-Market Analysis


Overnight inventory was long following the sharp decline of yesterday. Price looks like its going to open at O/N high and around yesterday's VAH. Looks like a good place to fade and short to yesterday's VAL. Both location plus overnight activity suggests downside movement, along with yesterday's bear movement the bias is to the downside in early part of day. If price breaks above yesterday's VAH at open and stays above, expect price to retrace up to 50% of the entire down move before shorting. Yesterday's low, O/N low and yesterday's VAL all in same zone, can also fade there. After yesterday's sizable move, expect price to range on a Friday.


Trading Day




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  #34 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

Picking this up again. I took some time off to forward test a few strategies and spent a lot of time trading options and equities for my main portfolio. Now that I have established that front, I've decided to commit my time to daytrading futures again.

Key Points
  • Starting capital: $2,000
  • 2 MES contracts per trade
  • Max risk per trade: $50 = 2.5% risk per trade
  • Profit Target: 1 off at 5pt (ALWAYS) / 2nd off at 10pt or beyond (depending on price action)
  • Timeframe: 5M chart
  • RTH trading only
  • STOP trading if 3 consecutive losses in a row

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  #35 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

10/5/2020

Respect the Range - What better way to start off fresh with a losing trades. The theme of the day is Respect the Range which is exactly what I should've done to avoid today's mistake.

Daily P&L: +2pt x 2c = $20

Thought Process for the day -- this is my real-time thought at each bar close
Bar 1 - gap up bull bar, monitor for more buyers
Bar 4 - reversal candle, opening buyers weakened. noting that bar 4 did not reach at least half of bar 1. seller conviction low? continue monitoring
Bar 5 - confirmed weak sellers
Bar 6 - sellers selling into this likely trapped. buy above bar 6 (did not take this because I was busy with something else)
Bar 7 - bull flag breakout, can still enter but again I was away
Bar 19 - bars 17/18 tried selling at potential bull flag but failing, bar 19 bull bar got me excited. However, note bar 19 high did not reach higher high. Further, price action is looking more range-like. Not ideal for long entry.
Bar 20 - reached new high but closed back within range. I took a manual exit here for -3 and reversed short. The thought here is that buyers buying breakouts are trapped. What I failed (again) to realize is the range we are in and how close my entry is to the low of range (bar 19 low).
Bar 22 - manual close for loss of another -3.5
Bar 23 - this is what bar 20 should look like for entry. Because of my back to back mistakes, I decided to sit on hand. This would have yielded a +5 for first contract. OK with sitting this one out because I'd prefer to stop and reassess after making mistakes to make sure I am not in wrong mindset.

Price continues to range until bar 52 breakout.

Bar 56 - IB breakout, if this fails buyers are trapped and can look for short. projected target of range breakout is around 3375 so could be a magnet given how close we got to it.
Bar 57 - scratch short idea, successful breakout to long side. watch 3381.75 for support turned resistance. timing also pretty close to the half hour mark for a reversal.
Bar 60 - confirmed thesis above for shorts but did not get an entry bar for it. also the spike shows that no seller conviction so sellers likely trapped. buy above bar 60. failed breakout of this morning's range. potential target at other side of range.
Bar 66 - first target hit for +5pt. s/l moved to b/e on 2c. note reversal from bar 55 is HWB of swing from bar 6, with target projection around 3393. reversal of bar 60 from swing of bar 55 also projected target around 3393.
Bar 67 - looks like target hit as I was typing the above. +10pt on 2c.




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  #36 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

10/6/2020

Inside's Insight - The theme of the day is definitely inside bars. All triggers and potential triggers that I did not take were all based on inside bars. Kicking myself for missing out on these trades but at least I ended the day on a small profit.

Net P&L: +5pt x 1c = $25

Thought Process

Bar 1 - reversal candle at open off yesterday's high. Normally would take this trade but gap fill support very close and does not provide sufficient room for first target.
Bar 3 - reversal off gap support with reversal candle. Would usually take this trade as well but not enough room to the upside with high of day so close.
Bar 6 - trade of the day that I missed. Inside bar 2nd entry breakout on a half hour mark. Pierced gap support by a bit to trap sellers.
Bar 11 - buyer exhaustion or sellers coming in? monitor next bar
Bar 12 - potential continuation to upside. would have taken entry if close is higher than Bar 1 high. skip.
Bar 13 - seems to be forming potential 2 legged corrective move down. Yesterday's high may be good area to watch for bounce if occurs at 3399. noting that 3399 is also fib projection target.
Bar 14 - 3399 was hit so waiting for trigger bar next.
Bar 15 - JPOW! I missed the fact that was he speaking today.

Letting the dust settle for a bit before looking to trade.

Bar 24 - looks like a 2 legged move down (discounting JPOW bar) with reversal bar after piercing low of day. took a stab with long entry here given good RR potential.
Bar 27 - 1 tick from initial target, stop moved to b/e
Bar 28 - out at breakeven
Bar 30 - nice NR4 but not looking to catch this. would prefer another shallower low or higher high made first.
Bar 32 - looks like bar 30 was the long. looking for a higher high for entry opportunity. looks to be false breakdown below 3390 so far.
Bar 34 - combining today and yesterday's structure, looking like a bull flag. breakout above would look for retest of trendline for higher low.
Bar 35 - low here may be all the retest i get. will monitor. was hoping bar 35 closes a pinbar which would be excellent entry.
Bar 38 - i like the actions so far but this bar did not provide a trigger i need. bar 36 formed IB bar at top, bar 37 trapped sellers as price bounce from trendline. bar 38 potential entry opportunity but the high ran too high (almost to high of 35). this now looks just like a range (VERY similar to my first loss from yesterday). passing on this for now. also note this is during lunch time lull.
Bar 40 - wrong on bar 38. good breakout.
Bar 42 - IB on move up and stall at HOD. long here for potential continuation. projection around 3415 so will see if this move gets us there. conviction to enter here is lack of seller participation. very tight stop so offers good RR. also note this ends the end of lunch hour.
Bar 46 - stop moved to b/e
Bar 47 - +5pt hit!
Bar 52 - out at b/e on 2c. Bar 51 gave me some hope initially! watching for potential 2 legged pull back for entry long.
Bar 53 - IB but ideally would like to see bar 52 low taken out first.
Bar 56 - looks like Bar 53 was the entry trigger.
Bar 62 - 3515 projected target hit! but without me
Bar 64 - lol ok trump

calling it early here. between JPOW and Trump, I've had enough wild rides for the day.

EOD Analysis

A few good trades that I did not take. Definitely felt like I got some form of cold fingers. Bar 6, I overslept. Bar 30, in hindsight this looks like end of 3 push down which favors upside. Did not see this in real time. Bar 38, the loss from yesterday prevented me from taking this. I failed to take into account that context is different. Yesterday's action took place at HOD. Today, it was a break of bull flag AND a nested bull flag after corrective down move. Bar 53, this was a simple BOPB to a defined support area with IB.




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  #37 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

So I had a post for 10/7 that I typed up but closed the window on accident. Too lazy to re-do, basically it was a rather range-y day and I ended with 2 loss 1 win for a total of $-25. First loss was a mistake (intended to enter buy stop but hit market instead). I should close immediately but I decided to hang on to it. 10/8 analysis to be posted EOD.

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  #38 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

10/8/2020

The three little pigs that failed - is what I had in mind today observing the three push up/down that signaled reversals.

Three push up and fail - Bars 1, 7, and 17 highs are the three pushes up that failed and followed by a reversal down.
Three push down and fail - Bars 42, 47, and 55 lows are the three pushes down that failed and followed by a reversal up.

What is noteworthy is that the three pushes are supported by tick divergences. Very important pattern and info to carryforward.

Net P&L: $35

Thought Process

Bars 1 to 22 are basically just noise.
Bar 23 - confirms potential wedge breakout
Bar 26 - beginning of bar I was anticipating an IB but it expanded into too big of a bar to trade.
Bar 30 - IB (not the best) but like the structure of a higher low following Bar 26. long at break of bar 30 high.
Bar 35 - 1c out at +5pt
Bar 47 - 2c out at +2pt, trailed the stop here and broke my rule. Had I followed rule, stop would be at b/e and untouched, and will eventually hit the +10pt target.
Bar 48 - IB and what looks like potential bull flag. however seeing how close price is to RTH open and did not get there, I'm thinking we will see another leg down to get the three push down.
Bar 55 - confirms thesis above. got my three push down. i should've entered here but wanted to see bar 56, and by then it's too late.

Nothing else for rest of day as price just chopped upward slowly.




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  #39 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127

Had to take a pause because of my newborn baby. But now trading resumes. Still the same except trading on higher time frame (15min).

10/29/2020

Win: 2
Loss: 0
Breakeven: 1

Great day today as price action was very easy to read.

Bar 1 - Looked below overnight low and yesterday low and failed. No sellers wanted to push this further down. Sellers at the open potentially trapped.
Bar 2 - confirmed bar 1 thesis, long at close of bar 2.
Bar 3 - closed trade somewhere here for +10.25
Bar 4 - my conviction is pretty strong that it will be a bull trend here today. Internals are good and price is trailing upwards along the moving averages.
Bar 11 - inside bar on a pullback to MAs, like the lower wicks on this bar. Went long here.
Bar 12 - closed for +6
Bar 16 - perfect set up! Price basing below 3300 psych level on an uptrend day. Getting ready for a breakout. Would have entered at close of bar 16 but I was changing diapers Missed this by a few minutes and did not want to chase.
Bar 21 - Same as start of day, looked above yesterday's high and failed with reversal bar. Was away from screen so no trade.
Bar 24 - went long here with the idea that we will have another pullback with trend continuation. Took some heat but was able to close breakeven on bar 25.

Performance results below show 5 trades today but two were actually taken during yesterday's ETH session.







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  #40 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
Posts: 118 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 127


Going into tomorrow, there are a few contexts I want to keep in mind. So far the action has created a 2 day balance between 3330 and 3260. If market continues to balance (range), I will look to fade either ends.

Overall bias is neutral for me at the moment. We gapped and stayed down yesterday and today we found balance in yesterday's range. This means possibility for acceptance here. However, today's opening did leave us with an excess low, which means buyers stepped in below 3260. However buyers weren't able to keep us above 3330 or top of today's range. As such net neutral to me as buyers and sellers are playing tug of war in this range. Above 3330, I will look for gap fill. Below 3270, I want to be a seller.



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Last Updated on December 20, 2020


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