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My Journal for Crude Oil - CL Contracts
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My Journal for Crude Oil - CL Contracts

  #11 (permalink)
Legendary Guesser
Reading UK
 
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Platform: Custom
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Reefunit View Post
2.) Crude Is a Volatile Market, and I have to allow for those Movements. I set tight stops, as I don't want to blow my account up. I'm sure some will tell me I shouldn't be trading it at all. I am understanding the movement, but I don't allow enough room on my stop. I just can't risk it.

3.) Markets trade to Value and the Center Pivot Point. If you have a Value Area, Yesterday's VPOC and Center Pivot Point Under/Over Price, you have a probability that price will make it to that general direction.

4) Markets generally revert back to value, until the value changes due to fundamentals. I believe I have better odds trading back into Value, and always being cautious of trend days. It pays to purchase the testing of the VAH & VAL. Now if I can only find a way to figure out how deep price will go in that direction, until the market is satisfied.

5.) Profitable Traders most likely wait for the bigger moves. I currently pay .78 Cents per roundtrip for Micros and 4.76 for CL/GC Contracts round trip. Trade less, Trade Earlier and let the move payout. I have to make it worth my while and enter into optimal areas. What I feel is an Optimal area, I probably need to add .10 to the price and move my Limit Order back. I would miss great trades, but I would also limit the Heat the position takes by buying into a peak of a volatile move in a key area.

Its quite interesting how you are thinking about this. Im intrigued
You have some elements working against each other but before we go delving into that, do you mind posting a few charts with your thoughts and ideas?
Also, good advice from kareem40. You really did take a flying kung fu jump into the action

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  #12 (permalink)
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Grantx View Post
Its quite interesting how you are thinking about this. Im intrigued
You have some elements working against each other but before we go delving into that, do you mind posting a few charts with your thoughts and ideas?
Also, good advice from kareem40. You really did take a flying kung fu jump into the action

@Grantx,

It's just who I am as a person. To me, understanding the extreme is necessary to my success. I understand how bad things can get and the pressure is my comfort zone. It forces me to focus and kicks me into gear, like a shot of morphine. It is a pricey way to learn, but most Futures Traders tend to blow up an account. If those are the odds, then I might as jump all in. I got punched in the face by my trading tactics and money management, and now I have to face the facts, fix it quick or become another Lurker of this forum due to blowing my account up.

I do agree.. @kareem40 has a great journal and appears to making it over the hump.


Sure, I'd have no problem sharing charts. My trades ideas unwind during the day with and I do my homework prior to the Open. I allow the price action in key areas and the "flow" of the market to guide me. Anything in particular that you think would be beneficial in me posting? My Mini GC Trade or finding an idea that could potentially become a future trade?

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  #13 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Dallas, TX
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
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Thank you @Reefunit
They key is to know daily that you have to share your charts/P&L and to do so. This has helped me more than anything else and has been, and still is, the hardest thing to do. So trade small so you don't have to show that you lost half you account in one day ( which I have done many times in the past).

Good luck and I look forward to your charts/posts.
K

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  #14 (permalink)
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Posts: 14 since Aug 2019
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9/26 - Trading Journal

Hello All,

Today, I was in total sync with the Market and really felt discipline and confident. I don't know if this was due to my big win yesterday, but happened to be the perfect mix of overly cautious and bold. My mind was totally clear and my I have become more patient in my Trades.

Today's PnL - 50.50 ( 1.7 %)

Account Sum - $2,889.73 ( Before Commission and Fees)


I started the day with buying right under the Pivot for MES and it was a real struggle. I happened to scale out of one of my three contracts, because price was spending way too much time compressing. The selling pressure in the morning was very apparent. Next thing, Bears really pushed on the gas and I got stopped out for a small loss. - Less than 1 %

I had a limit order ready to short MES contracts close to the VWAP, but price never made it there before taking another dip. Price made it under the Value Area and as it tried to make it's way back into Value, I shorted 3 contracts of MES. It wasn't long until that perfectly green candle turned into a Doji and continued back to the bottom of Value and sell off. That was a tough trade to take, but those are the best trades.


I picked up many signals today on the MNQ, but I did not trade it. I do favor the MES, but I will also pay attention to the MNQ as well.


I did place another short on CL, but it pushed much higher and forced me to go into "Damage Control" Immediately. Today , I was wrong on the direction of that trade on CL and my luck will run out. As much as I really enjoy trading CL, I may have to strictly stick to Mini Contracts until I can handle the 10 to 20 Tick Swings while maintaining a low draw down on my account. I took a -10 $ loss on that one. I got lucky as my MAE was approx -50$ at one point


Later in the Afternoon, MES made it's way back up to a Key Area that I labeled ( Resistance due to Value Rejection ) and I did get stopped out. I went ahead and placed the Same Trade again for 2 Contracts with an 8 tick stop. The price moved in my direction and I sold one for 10 Ticks. I quickly moved my stop loss about 2 ticks above my entry and price did flirt with that area, but did not hit my stop. My target was for the VWAP below for about 32 ticks. The Buying pressure came and I read a reversal in the making, at about 22 ticks down. I sold the other Contract Price SHOT up through the key area. I made a bold call and I happened to be right about it. I hope I can continue to repeat it, as I want to ensure

Things I learned Today -

1.) Futures Trading requires Full Focus and Attention. I'm actually doing some of this while having meetings and deliverable, as I work full time. One False move and you could be out of business. If your mind is tied up in other things at the moment, don't trade. If you have scheduled meetings that need your undivided attention, it is better to wait for another set up.

2.) The power of leverage shows on a single MES Contract. You need just enough to make a difference when price runs, but not over stacking contracts. I never imagined I would see a 260 Dollar profit from a single contract in a day ( Yesterday's Mini GC Trade) but it can be done. It really was just one MES contract at a time that allowed for most of the profits today.

3.) MES and MNQ are not markets that are completely in sync. They tend to move close to one another, but not exactly the same. The setups showed on mainly on MNQ today, but I ignored most of MNQ. Taking a look now, the MNQ would of been the better Futures Contract to trade today.

4.) The trading day isn't over until it's over. I let a trade go by late in the day, but it would of really worked out well.

5.) Sticking to tight Money Management and Position Management has bought me a couple of more days without ruin. I may have to pass on CL, until I have the account. Today was a real eye opener for me.

6.) Doing my Homework prepared me for the day. I was expecting a pretty choppy day with a distorted range. The Market Profile for the day looks like a normal distribution, but it sure felt difficult to trade at times.

I will start to prepare for my day tomorrow. My Personal Bias for tomorrow will be that the MES/ MNQ will be a trend day to the downside. I will prepare the key areas and look for short directional trades.

Thanks...

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  #15 (permalink)
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Posts: 14 since Aug 2019
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Micro GC Trade

I figured I would start off with this Chart -

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The Blue Lines indicates the traded value area for GC. I circled the four failures, as this is a direct rejection of price above that value area. As Price continued, I waited until it made it's way back to the VWAP. The big players didn't directly short the position, but waited until price came back around. The First Red Arrow was my entry and I knew I wanted to trade it down to the POC. I thought it would take at least a couple of days.

The Second Red Arrow is my exit at around 1510. It was a clear trade for me with no hiccups.

Just patience and sticking to the plan.

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  #16 (permalink)
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Hey just want to help my advice may or may not apply but seeing u honestly say u have a small account, try to stay with the micros, and qm, but also try to gun for bigger moves and fewer trades. Try to make a goal each day 1 good trade per market each day, then at the end of the day ask urself was the trade the trade of the day, was it part of the main swings for the day? Then review and make adjustments to your strategy. Once u r confident u can catch a main swing and only making one trade a day(or 2) u can leverage up. If u r making good reads and also managing the downside, 1 good trade a day will grow ur account fast in the futures market, even if u r on micros (multiple lots 3 to 5). Anyway try to force yourself to do one bullet, at least in this learning phase. Hope it helps good luck!


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  #17 (permalink)
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sonneteufel View Post
Hey just want to help my advice may or may not apply but seeing u honestly say u have a small account, try to stay with the micros, and qm, but also try to gun for bigger moves and fewer trades. Try to make a goal each day 1 good trade per market each day, then at the end of the day ask urself was the trade the trade of the day, was it part of the main swings for the day? Then review and make adjustments to your strategy. Once u r confident u can catch a main swing and only making one trade a day(or 2) u can leverage up. If u r making good reads and also managing the downside, 1 good trade a day will grow ur account fast in the futures market, even if u r on micros (multiple lots 3 to 5). Anyway try to force yourself to do one bullet, at least in this learning phase. Hope it helps good luck!


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Thanks for the Advice. I'm trying to work toward that, but sometimes I just don't know if the trade pans out. As my win rate increases, I'll have a better understanding of what a Big Winning trade looks/feels like. I just don't have any way to continue to limit myself as I have a bad tendency to miss out on great set ups in markets, as opposed to the markets i'm trading.

I can see "Signs" of a good trade, but I have no clue if it is a big trade or not. Is that possible?

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  #18 (permalink)
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@Reefunit What is your time profile with this? Are you looking to make short term gains on your account or build it over a longer term? You are approaching this in high risk attack mode and saying things like 'fix it quick' which suggests that you are in a bit of a rush. What is your work environment like? Targets and deadlines, crush the competition, go go go?

Even though this is spare cash you are willing to lose, try and make the most of the options available to you. If you have 3k left then why not extend your learning curve by reducing your risk to 1% of your account?

If you decide on that profile then 1% on 3k is $30. That is the maximum you should risk on any trade. With a plan in place for risk, you can now focus on being disciplined with your trading method.
Take a month. If you can maintain your account over a number of trades (even just breakeven) by not blowing out on trades that deviate from your 1% risk profile then you are doing really well.
I think this is the first thing you must figure out. Trading will highlight your weaknesses and these must be addressed before you think of increasing your risk profile.

Also, in the elite section there are some excellent journals which I think you would benefit from. Just saying.

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  #19 (permalink)
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9/27 - Trading Journal

Hello All,


Today, The Market was quite generous to provide me a wonderful opportunity.

PnL - + $85 ( % 2.96 Gain)

Account Sum - $2,950 ( Before Fees and Commissions)


I felt like I just couldn't get a break early in the day. I took on multiple loses and was out of sync with the market. My call on Thursday for the downward bias did occur and I did my homework to understand where my key areas were for the day.

Micro GC Trade -

Gold Under 1,500 happened to have gold back under value, so I picked up two contracts and I sold a bit too early, as I didn't give enough time for the day to really move on.


Micro ES Trades -

Took a couple of losses during the day. I was stopped out approx 4 times and started the day at -$85.


Micro NQ Trades -

I did see the NQ struggle with getting back into the Value and as price stagnated, I decided to short 2 contracts to the downside. This trade made up for all my loses and put me in the Green for the day.


Risk Management - I kept everything at a 1 % risk on all trades.


I removed the CL from my trading portfolio. It's just a better experience dealing with the Micros and not putting myself in a risky situation.

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  #20 (permalink)
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Posts: 14 since Aug 2019
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Grantx View Post
@Reefunit What is your time profile with this? Are you looking to make short term gains on your account or build it over a longer term? You are approaching this in high risk attack mode and saying things like 'fix it quick' which suggests that you are in a bit of a rush. What is your work environment like? Targets and deadlines, crush the competition, go go go?

Even though this is spare cash you are willing to lose, try and make the most of the options available to you. If you have 3k left then why not extend your learning curve by reducing your risk to 1% of your account?

If you decide on that profile then 1% on 3k is $30. That is the maximum you should risk on any trade. With a plan in place for risk, you can now focus on being disciplined with your trading method.
Take a month. If you can maintain your account over a number of trades (even just breakeven) by not blowing out on trades that deviate from your 1% risk profile then you are doing really well.
I think this is the first thing you must figure out. Trading will highlight your weaknesses and these must be addressed before you think of increasing your risk profile.

Also, in the elite section there are some excellent journals which I think you would benefit from. Just saying.


I'm looking to build this account overtime, as I do have a very involved day job. I do have deadlines and targets that I must meet, but this is my second week of Futures Trading. I do want to note that I do have trading experience, but it was just being under capitalized and the leverage portion that affected my trading early on.

I have been sticking to a strict 1 % risk profile for all of my trades and will even stop trading if I hit 4 back to back losses. I believe that I must stop and look at those trades.


My goal is to slowly become a better trader and possibly even move more to swing trading. It has been a very rough two weeks, but I'm slowly learning and growing.

I'll take a look into joining and reading the Elite Section. I've read several of the Forums and it has helped.

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