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I'm expecting a volatile session today as we continue the political story that really picked up steam yesterday. Bears were able to mark a new low for the move overnight but we'll have to see if they end up getting stuck with any moves from Trump which could lead to a strong squeeze back to / above the 50 DMA.
Daily Bias: The chart has been showing 'no signal' since I started the journal last Friday and that continues today. If bulls can't pick up the pace again soon then the chart is going to start picking up short signals. Technically the bears were able to break back into the August 'chop range' which means the next target would be to hit the bottom end of the range near 7400. I've marked a halfway point of the range which could act as interim support which comes in around 7600. The failed breakout to the upside and lower high under 8000 also doesn't play well for the bulls which is why they need to pick up price again in a hurry.
Today's action plans: The daily chart shows no signals but I expect a volatile session so I'll likely be favoring reversal trades against the standard pivot points today. I won't place trades right at the lines but instead I want to see price go through them as a 'shake out' and then reverse back through it in order to take a position. Stops would then placed either beneath the shakeout level or an appropriate place under the pivot line (in case the shakeout was large).
Daily ATR: My chart is showing the daily ATR to be 119 which means the high / low range for the day could be 7855 / 7617. Hitting the top end of the range would mean a break back up and out of the August chop range while a move to the bottom end of the range would near the halfway mark of that chop range.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
A nice recovery by the bulls yesterday and as noted by the prior post I was able to double up the account after taking a reversal trade from S1 shortly after the 9:30 AM open. The move got us back up above the August 'chop zone' which I'm taking as a bullish sign as bears couldn't even tag the middle of the chop range on the move lower. Next goal is to get back to the breakout consolidation highs around 8000 and we could easily get there by month end if sentiment around new impeachment headlines and US/China trade talks continue to be positive.
Daily Chart: We haven't had a signal for the last week as we've chopped around going into month / quarter end and that remains the case today. Since I'm more on the bullish side today I may try to take some trades on any failures from the bears to get back into that August chop zone which starts around 7805. Note that the overnight move has already rejected that level once and it may not provide another opportunity. Time will tell.
Daily ATR: This has increased slightly to 122 points which puts the high / low end of the day at 7942 / 7698. Technically hitting the high end would mean a retrace of the losses that started last Friday. A move to 7698 would mean a move to the bottom end of the value ranges over the last two days and is also near a nice round number.
That's what I get for boasting about a 2x on Wednesday as I took two full loss positions yday which brought me back to reality. Trades seemed fine but got jolted on some headline news which has been the theme for the week and probably could have kept the stops a bit closer. Will risk back to $1K on any trades today and if that happens then looking forward to starting even again in October.
Daily Chart: Similar theme as we've seen all week. No signal showing up on the chart as we battle around the top end of the August range going into the end of the quarter. Bullish themes include not letting bears tag the middle of the range during the sell-off in the middle of the week and now trying to push up and out of the August chop zone. Bear themes are that they were able to break back into that August range this week and have not allowed bulls to mark new record highs. There is also an old Wall Street adage of 'sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur' and that will start this Sunday which means we could see some selling in the market today. That will likely depend on if we get more positive news from US/China and impeachment headlines.
Today's action plans: Feeling that I want to be on the sidelines today given that we're playing around with the top end of the August range and could be just a lot of chop as we get to quarter end. I may play some reversal trades if we get to the standard pivot lines and technical factors push overbought / oversold.
Daily ATR: Chart shows it to be 115 points which would put today's range between 7902 and 7672. A move to 7904 would mean an unwind from losses that started from Tuesday's highs and a move to 7672 would get us to Wednesday's lows.
Quick recap since I didn't have time Friday to post in the journal. Friday was a good day for me although it could've been better if I had just stayed the course late in the day. I was up over $1.5k for the day but gave some back as I got in the market too early before the short covering occurred going into the weekend. Overall, still near the 2x amount I started with and the goal for October is to get this account to (at least) $4k by the end of the month. I realize we have one day of September left on Monday and I'll adjust as necessary come Monday evening. The long trades I placed Friday afternoon were attempts to be reversal trades as price broke below the daily ATR range and proved to be correct going into the close but I was too eager to take advantage of people taking short profit and got in too early relative to my stops. That will happen and I will review my intraday signal again to see if they can be tweaked for timing. For now everything stays the same.
Overall I'm somewhat disappointed with the results at the end of the week as I feel I could have had this account up close to $6-7K given the volatility we had last week. That said, the daily chart had shown no signal and it feels like the market has been near all headline driven so I guess I'll just take the 2x that the market gave me. My calls in the daily AM market update have been good so far and I'll keep trying to place trade action around those thoughts everyday.
Daily Chart Update: The short signal I was waiting on since I started this journal finally appeared on Friday although price action still seems mostly headline driven / emotional. If this signal should stick going into the Monday open then it will lead me to take short positions on any intraday rally. If Trump and crew try to unwind some of the damage of the capital control headline losses on Friday then we could see a retest of the August chop range highs around 7800 hit early in the week. Bears still could not hit the middle of the August chop range during Friday's sell-off although they did mark a lower low for the move so momentum could be building their way for now. Also, the old adage of 'sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur' still seems to be in play which would now mean we would look for long positions ahead of the Oct 8 holiday.
Looking forward to reporting the action in October. That said, Troll Ray's post really put a tilt in my mood and I want to go after him with a vengeance. Fah q Ray!
Sure I'll do my best. Won't be the prettiest things you'll find on here since I'm trying to build a nice cushion from basically nothing but you'll get the point.
A nice lift in the overnight session as news over the weekend tries to unwind the China capital control losses on Friday. The short signal that has posted on my chart on Friday is now gone although I'm not totally sure why although it could be that a moving average isn't shown for the current day and price may be right at it. I had expected a larger move overnight back towards the 7800 level given the attempt to unwind Friday's headlines and I'll wait for the 9:30 AM open to see if there's going to be a stronger squeeze against the bears or if the momentum has truly changed in the bears favor. Internal political pressure also in play - thinking of longer term SPX options plays in the other portfolio and will steer clear of that here since this is a spec journal.
I expect that this will be a choppy session as we get through the final trading session for September and start trading October. Mid-October typically starts holiday trade ramp (sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur) but we'll have trade talks with China at that time and we've proven time and again over the past year that ramps from these trade talks can be quickly taken out with a single tweet. I have found that staying out of the initial move up or down during these tweet / headline moves is the way to go and I can make decent coin trading the aftermath waves.
Today's Plan of Action: A stronger short squeeze against the bears would take us back up towards the top end of the August chop range around 7800. If bulls can break back up through that level and hold it then I'd be interesting taking longs against the short signal that was posted on the chart Friday. Interesting that my cumulative delta charts took the number back to 0 on the overnight ramp up but failed to clear above it and maybe that will be the signal to use today (stay above 0 - look for longs, hold under then look for shorts).
Daily ATR: Chart is showing 121 points which puts the high / low at 7822/7580. I highlight the Daily ATR range with purple horizontal lines on my 30 minute charts as well as the previous close in yellow. This has helped me gauge sentiment in the past.
