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Emini ES Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
Netzel
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8/28/19 Pre-Market


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 kareem40 
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Good luck @Netzel and I look forward to reading your journal.

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 kareem40 
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Hi
That is MW with VP, correct?

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MotiveWave and TradeStation

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 snax 
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Netzel View Post

Both of the long entries you showed look very good. The first one is interesting in that the sequence from bar 10 (bull trend bar forming double-bottom at 2921.50) through bar 16 was somewhat tricky to me. Maybe you saw this sequence more clearly than me! Based off bars 8 & 9, the high of bar 13 was right in a good area to signal a decent pullback short position, right around the 61.8% retracement if you care about fibonacci, very common pullback level, but then bar 16 formed a 23.6% pullback going the other way and was a good reversal bar for the bulls, bounced right off 200EMA too.

Your second entry at bar 22 is even stronger imho, given the earlier context, forming a second double-bottom, a pullback-to-mid (again based off bars 8 & 9) and closing as a very strong bull trend bar. I hope I would have bought the close of bar 22 had I been watching the market at this time.

I hope you don't mind me posting here, good trading @Netzel!

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Netzel
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Snax, thank you for the comments, I do not mind the post.

If you look at my premarket post, specifically notes #2 and #4, I have identified the HVN-zone. This was a very important zone in reference to market context. The bar that broke through was an attempt to find sellers, it could have been viewed as a failed attempt or false break. The internals were not showing weakness and the $tick was holding above zero. That is why the long was justified in that zone.

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  #26 (permalink)
Netzel
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1. Yesterday, ES failed to show continuation to the downside, leading to a false breakout. This is a bullish sign, however we need to see buyers step in to test and break the top side of balance. O/N ES traded in a range.

2. This morning, there is a gap fill at 2978.50, where buyers could be active along with premarket support at 2972.00-75.00. Buyers are expected to defend this area. If this breaks to the downside, sellers may gain confidence and take ES lower, testing minor resistance at 2965.25-67.25 or yesterday's POC zone 2960.50-62.50, and 2955.00-57.00. other zones are identified.

3. Premarket resistance is at 2984.50-87.50 and initial resistance at 29891.50, which marks the top of balance. A break above this on high momentum puts the bulls in clear control for the short and intermediate time frame. ES can test 2995.00-97.50, 3001.00-02.50 and even 3005.75-08.75.

4. Economic calendar: 9:30am petroleum report

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  #27 (permalink)
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Netzel View Post
8/28/19 Pre-Market


Wow that's a lot of data on one chart

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  #33 (permalink)
 mtzimmer1 
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Love the ADD divergence in conjunction with an area you were already watching. That seems to be a very high probability setup.

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Netzel
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Everything was in alignment (with a very tight stop) including $tick showing weakness

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 mtzimmer1 
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What triggers an entry for you? Do you need to see a certain price movement (reaction) in the area you're expecting? Does your stop generally go beyond the current swing high/low?

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Netzel
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Zimmer,

The zones and price levels identify are higher probability locations for price to react. If you read my premarket, I try to identify if...then... scenarios based off of market context (the ongoing story).

Your questions deserve more than I will simply summarize:
1. Trigger: there is no formal trigger. Resting orders or market orders are placed based on probability of zone or price level.
Yesterday's short "trigger" was failure to show strength at a level, confimed by $ADD divergence and knowing sellers could be active.
2. ...certain price movement (reaction). No, if you wait for price confirmation or reaction, the move can be over or you find yourself chasing.
3. My stop is based off of volatility I identify before the open. Generally, it is around 2 points beyond the zone or level.

Netzel

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Netzel
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Zimmer,

Please also note that not every zone or level is treated the same way. They can carry different weights or probabilities.

Netzel

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Netzel View Post
8/28/19 Pre-Market





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what is this?

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From this mornings trade plan


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slightly adjusted the premarket resistance level and separated the close...seems to make more sense


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Can the Bulls win the short-term battle?


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 mtzimmer1 
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How about that advance-decline divergence when the market tested ONH. Quite a short opportunity!

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mtzimmer1...I hope you caught some of that

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I need to take some time off for personal reasons. I look forward to posting again soon.

Netzel

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 mtzimmer1 
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I need to take some time off for personal reasons. I look forward to posting again soon.



Netzel



Look forward to your future posts! You provide excellent insight.

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Netzel
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5/11/2020
Yesterday: Friday we saw ES gap higher. ES continued to find support above 2900 and continued to trade higher. ES eventually filled the April 29th gap, closing at 2928.50
Over-Night/Pre-Market/Gap: Overnight, ES had a failed attempt to go continue higher. ES is now trading below Friday’s value and is set to Gap lower
Today’s Focus: Sellers were active overnight. Look to see if selling can continue. Watch to see how ES reacts to 2913.25 VPOC. Holding below 2892.75 can give the edge to sellers

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5/12

watching today's developing VPOC


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