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hen322's ES MES Daytrading Skill Development cont. from Elite J
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hen322's ES MES Daytrading Skill Development cont. from Elite J

  #1 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
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Posts: 62 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 103 given, 110 received

hen322's ES MES Daytrading Skill Development cont. from Elite J

I originally began this journal in the Elite Trading Journal section and decided to continue it here. This will be an easier way to show my family and friends on what I do.

About me:
I've been demo trading the ES ever since February of this year. I started trading live with the micros last June. My goal is to get confident enough to trade live the ES next year. I trade only the morning session, between 6:15am to 9am PST.

Purpose of thread:
This thread will be a trading journal of my live MES entries for the day, but I use the ES to read the price action and volume. The pictures will be from the ES, and my live trades will be executed in the MES.

Topics covered for each post:
*Title will show the day of the week, and my description of the morning trend.
*Emogis will show my feelings after today's trading.
1. My General pre-market outlook.
2. My pre-market bias.
3. Description of my thoughts during the entry and exits (with pictures).
4. What I learned or to focus more on (which I edit throughout the afternoon).
5. After reviewing-my-video thoughts (#:##:## my video location).

The Journal's Objective:
To analyze my progress as a trader by "finding" my bad habits and "recognizing" my good ones.

To the reader:
All comments and suggestions are welcomed, thanks!

"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.

Last edited by hen322; August 24th, 2019 at 12:58 PM.
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  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

List of sections covered in each post:
*Title shows day of the week and my description of the morning trend.
*Emoji for today's trading (with P&L for the day).
1. Pre-Market Outlook:


2. Pre-Market Bias:


3. My thoughts during trades (#of Trades:#):


4. What I Learned or To Focus More On:
(coming in the afternoon)


5. After Reviewing-My-Video Thoughts:
(#:##:## my video location)
(coming in the evening)

September Trader's Flip Project: (Starting at bottom of page 1)

*Title will show day of week, and my description of morning trend.
*Emoji for today's trading (P&L for the day)

1. Mark Long or Short in Overview Chart for the Morning using live MES trade markers. Trades are also circled in blue.


2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: #):


3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.


Last edited by hen322; September 6th, 2019 at 11:42 AM.
 
  #3 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
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Posts: 62 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 103 given, 110 received

Monday Range Day



1. Pre-Market Outlook:
No econ news. Trump will be thinking about tariffs for Apple's sake.

2. Pre-Market Bias:
Neutral

3. My thoughts during trades (#ofTrades: 1):

I didn't find any trades in the morning, but I found one after 830, close to 9am pst. I knew it was low volume time, so I didn't expect it to move too much. I still took a trade because it looked promising. It was trading at the previous high, and the 5min candle closed below prev. candle.

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There was also alot of activity around that area, with the bears taking control.

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There was a chance at bouncing off the 20EMA, but it hasn't been respecting it during its range formation.

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I was planning to trail my stop above the prev. 5min high, but alot of buying activity suddenly showed up, so I exited. Plus the 5min candles were forming long wicks at the bottom.

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I ended the day with 6tick profit. Not bad, good start in the week to help build my confidence. I felt more in control of my decisions.

This is what happened afterwards.

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4. What I Learned or To Focus More On:
I don't think I could have done any better for the trade discussed above, but I did study the possible 7:25am reversal that I wish I took.

5. After Reviewing-My-Video Thoughts:
(1:00:05)
The 7:25am reversal. The first sign could have been from the volume anomaly. The volume bars are in black, and the red is the measure of range that I placed behind it.

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First sign of resistance appeared in market depth.

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10 seconds later, a 2nd sell limit comes out. This would have scared me away.

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After the sell limit orders grouped together, a huge buy order came. Bulls bought all of resistance, and it showed from the volumetric chart's ask side, and big buy orders from the time and sales. It took 1 minute, from the time I noticed heavy resistance, to the buy orders showing up.

Before the huge buy orders. Notice the light blue orders from the T&S window. That is a sign of aggressive bulls.

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After the buy orders came.

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The price jumped 1-2 ticks (which is not much), but this demonstrates that volume can lead price! And then, after a slight pullback, this is how price moved afterwards.

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"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.

Last edited by hen322; August 20th, 2019 at 12:44 AM.
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  #4 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
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Posts: 62 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 103 given, 110 received

Tuesday Reversal Morning


1. Pre-Market Outlook:
No econ report, no major news, same issues being priced in.

2. Pre-Market Bias:
Downtrend to Range

3. My thoughts during trades (#ofTrades: 3):
First and Second Trade: I entered when 4min bar closed below its prev. candle. 5min did not close yet. I exited before hitting my stop loss when it traded above its prev. candle on 4min and 5min. Then I re-entered the short when price moved back down on next 5min candle. I was in profit for a little bit, and moved my stoploss to middle of prev. 5min long candle. Exiting early preventing me from having a higher loss.

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The chart below shows the 1st exit loss circled, and what happened after exiting my 2nd trade.

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Exiting a losing trade before hitting my stoploss is a good trade to me.

Third Trade: I noticed a price/volume anomaly, and anticipated a retracement of the long candle. It was also at the prev. high area. After moving into profit, the price paused for some time, and I noticed that the price action might have made a resistance area into support, which made me exit.

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Even though I didn't end in profit today, I minimized my losses. Getting into the habit of trading well is better than lucky wins.

4. What I Learned or To Focus More On:
I wish I recognized the reversal starting near the 655am pst time. That will be the study of today.

5. After Reviewing-My-Video Thoughts:
(#:##:## my video location)
The first hammer candle showed up at 655am. I didn't know if it was the start of a reversal or simply a slight pullback. After reviewing the video, I tried counting how many large buy orders compared to large sell ones. No side really stood out. The only thing I could recognize as a sign was on the renko chart, with the high volumes at the bottom of the channel. The following chart shows where the high volumes were, marked with a vertical orange line.

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"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.

Last edited by hen322; August 20th, 2019 at 07:37 PM.
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  #5 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
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Posts: 62 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 103 given, 110 received

Wednesday Range


1. Pre-Market Outlook:
Same issues being priced in.

2. Pre-Market Bias:
Neutral

3. My thoughts during trades (#ofTrades: 1):
I made an indicator through the Editor to mark the candles on the Renko chart for high volume of 5000. This indicator signaled a buying opportunity around 7:45am. Price was also near the vwap, and a congestion area made in the overnight session.

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I entered when price traded above the previous 5min candle. Price was moving in my favor, and I decided to trail my stoploss 1-tick below the prev. candles lows. I got stopped out at breakeven when price decided to plummet quickly.

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Then price reversed and went up just like I thought before. I got caught in a bear trap during the half hour of the european close. One of my rules is to not enter a trade during that time, but since I was in the trade already, I was hoping to ride a trend up. I should have exited before 8am with a small profit.

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Looking back at my Renko chart, I noticed the volume was very low when the price plummeted (circled in blue). I could have re-entered, but I was too worn out. This is one of my psychology issues. Getting emotionally tired after getting stopped out.

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It seems like some of the major players who bought during the congestion in the overnight session exited their positions quickly.

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4. What I Learned or To Focus More On:
I need to work on re-entering trades. The re-entry strategy will be simple: enter when price reaches where you got stopped out, with the same profit targets and stoploss. If this was a demo account, I would have re-entered without thinking twice, because i'm willing to take more risk with fake money.


5. After Reviewing-My-Video Thoughts:
(#:##:## my video location)
None.

One thing I can 'change' for tomorrow is to make the volume alert for the Renko to 10,000. The chart below shows the amount of volume used to make the reversals this morning, circled in purple. It looks like around that amount.

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"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.

Last edited by hen322; August 22nd, 2019 at 01:00 AM.
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  #6 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
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Posts: 62 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 103 given, 110 received

Thursday Downtrend Selloff


1. Pre-Market Outlook:
Econ report at 645 and 7. I decided to not be in trades during those times, no matter how good it looked. I think the market is very touchy with any kind of news right now. Our econ reports have been normal and positive so far, it's just the bond yields that are freaking us out.

2. Pre-Market Bias:
Neutral

3. My thoughts during trades (#ofTrades: 1):
After drawing a trading range (marked in blue), I was anticipating support/resistance trading back and forth, but then I considered the econ reports, and how the market might react. Even though these reports are not 'High Impact', the market is acting like its walking on broken glass (kind of like how I feel about this Forum). So I switched my mind to thinking that this might be a pullback from the 6:50am 5min candle selloff. The volume confirmed the selloff was genuine, so I had a feeling that this was going to continue down. Plus, my tick chart showed a bearish double top. I was hesitant to enter once the 5min candle traded below it's previous low, then suddenly, the price shot down a few ticks, and that's when I entered, with the feeling of FOMO, and having the thought of 'catching a falling knife' trap. It was a reaction I had at that moment. Then the price pulled back a little, and 'hoping' set in.

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The Renko chart also showed a sign that high volume confirmed resistance.

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I moved my target to the next support level, which was yesterday's high.

4. What I Learned or To Focus More On:
Referring to yesterday's trade, today I was reminded that the YM and NQ move better than the ES because there are more algo trading from institutions on this instrument, verses the other two. So I did a comparison on the 8am pst move that stopped me out of the trade I took.

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It looks like I would have been stopped out if I traded any one of them.

Looking back on my charts, I noticed that the Renko chart was the only one that gave signals of high volume which pushed through 2 support levels, first being the prev. day's high (RTH), and second being the prev. day's close (RTH).

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There was also the climatic volume pointed out on the 5min chart, which was enough to reverse the price action.

The tick chart did not give any reliable signs for the continuation of the downtrend.

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Even though I exited my trade at the profit target of the 1st support level, I could have used the 3min chart to trail my stoploss on the prev. candle high to ride the trend all the way down. It's ATR moved around 2.8pts, which was small enough for my 15 tick stoploss.

5. After Reviewing-My-Video Thoughts:
(#:##:## my video location)
I was having Ninjatrader install a new version on my computer before the market open, and I forgot to start my screen recorder.

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"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.

Last edited by hen322; August 22nd, 2019 at 09:23 PM.
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  #7 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
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Posts: 62 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 103 given, 110 received

Friday Range to Breakdown


1. Pre-Market Outlook:
China threatens to impose tariffs on some U.S. goods.

2. Pre-Market Bias:
Downtrend

3. My thoughts during trades (#of Trades: 1):
Powell was going to speak at 7am pst, not streaming, and I didn't know when it was going to end. I found a youtube live channel by "Stock Market Live". Even though the youtuber focused on stocks, he was also keeping up with todays news about Powell and Trump. Price started out in a range cause no one knew what Powell was going to say. Then it went up after he spoke. I still held off on trading cause this would be still considered 'a meeting in progress', which is not good to trade in. Suddenly it tanked down, and found out that it was Trumps tweets. By then, it was getting close to the European half hour close, so I anticipated that they would start covering during that time. If the pullback happened, I would aggressively look for a shorting opportunity. There was a resistance line above price, which was a perfect setup, and I decided I would enter after 830, when Europe closed. The 5min bar traded below it's previous low, but I still held off cause this was exactly at 830. I wanted to see another confirmation candle that would trigger me to enter. When that candle started printing, it pulled up a little, then when it started heading down, I entered.

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After entering, I decided to trail my stop above the prev. candle high on the 3.5min chart. My first target would be the next support area, but I was determined to get stopped out if it traded above prev. candle., just in case the price decided to break through support, therefore creating a bigger profit. When it reached there, I kept a close eye on the volume profile building up in that area. When price lingered there for a while, I noticed the imbalances showing up on the ask side in my volumetric bars, which made me exit my position.

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I decided to update my volume indicator on my Renko chart to today's volatility. Before, it was at 10,000, and today's price action had around 3000 for turning points. Once I changed it to that amount, the indicator showed alot of support, which confirmed my decision.

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Even though price went down some more later, it was out of my Trading time.

4. What I Learned or To Focus More On:
My heart was starting to race while I was trailing the stop. I'm going to work on writing a strategy to exit my trade once it trade's above/below prev. candle.

5. After Reviewing-My-Video Thoughts:
(#:##:## my video location)
While reviewing, I thought of an idea to make a hotkey for centering my superdom whenever I hear a block trade. I hope that will be another useful action to help me see which side starts being more aggressive.

"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.

Last edited by hen322; August 24th, 2019 at 01:42 AM.
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  #8 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
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Posts: 62 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 103 given, 110 received

September Trader's Flip Project

Trader's Fact
One trader's strategy might not work for someone else. So this project might work out for me, and not for another. This will be a study of mine that anyone can take however they want.

The Theory
If my current strategy I'm working on, isn't making me money, then the opposite position should make me profitable. Even with a 1:1 ratio, because my stoplosses keep getting hit.

The Trader's Flip Project
If the strategy I am using isn't working at the current market conditions, then place the opposite order, but still use the same money management to exit the trade, and dedicate a whole month to see the results. A 1:1 ratio should do just as good cause my stoplosses were getting hit when I was losing. So theoretically, I should be making money this time, doing it this way. All trades will be in live MES account. The price tags shown on the charts will be from the ES from the demo account, because I use it to mirror my live MES positions.

New Layout of Posts
I realize now that my previous journals was incomprehensible to others. To me, it made sense at that time, but after reviewing them, I, too, am confused as well. I will be simplifying it by getting straight to the trade with a brief explanation. The new layout should help as well:

*Title will show the day of the week, and my description of the morning trend.
*Emoji for today's trading (with P&L for the day).
1. Stating which trades were Long or Short. Overall picture of the morning with location of trades circled in blue.
2. My Brief Thoughts during Trades with 'Zoomed-In' Pictures (#of Trades: #):
First Trade:
Second Trade:
etc.
3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

Education
During this time, I'll be reading Al Brooks' Trading Reversal Book, and fine tuning my current strategy, but still placing trades that go opposite of what my strategy intended.

The Project End
This project will end once my month's drawdown is hit. I've committed $3000 to trade the MES, since last June, and my drawdown of around $200/month kept getting met, so I'm down 20% so far. Even if my strategy starts working like it was intended, I will still place the opposite trade til the end of the month. I wanted to give this project a name, so I called it 'Trader's Flip'. Once I hit my month's drawdown like this, then I'll be more confident that my current strategy should work as planned.

"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.

Last edited by hen322; September 2nd, 2019 at 11:28 PM.
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  #9 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: Tradestation, DeCarley, others
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Posts: 2,632 since Jul 2012
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hen322 View Post
Trader's Fact
One trader's strategy might not work for someone else. So this project might work out for me, and not for another. This will be a study of mine that anyone can take however they want.

The Theory
If my current strategy I'm working on, isn't making me money, then the opposite position should make me profitable. Even with a 1:1 ratio, because my stoplosses keep getting hit.

The Trader's Flip Project
If the strategy I am using isn't working at the current market conditions, then place the opposite order, but still use the same money management to exit the trade, and dedicate a whole month to see the results. A 1:1 ratio should do just as good cause my stoplosses were getting hit when I was losing. So theoretically, I should be making money this time, doing it this way. All trades will be in live MES account. The price tags shown on the charts will be from the ES from the demo account, because I use it to mirror my live MES positions.

New Layout of Posts
I realize now that my previous journals was incomprehensible to others. To me, it made sense at that time, but after reviewing them, I, too, am confused as well. I will be simplifying it by getting straight to the trade with a brief explanation. The new layout should help as well:

*Title will show the day of the week, and my description of the morning trend.
*Emoji for today's trading (with P&L for the day).
1. Stating which trades were Long or Short. Overall picture of the morning with location of trades circled in blue.
2. My Brief Thoughts during Trades with 'Zoomed-In' Pictures (#of Trades: #):
First Trade:
Second Trade:
etc.
3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

Education
During this time, I'll be reading Al Brooks' Trading Reversal Book, and fine tuning my current strategy, but still placing trades that go opposite of what my strategy intended.

The Project End
This project will end once my month's drawdown is hit. I've committed $3000 to trade the MES, since last June, and my drawdown of around $200/month kept getting met, so I'm down 20% so far. Even if my strategy starts working like it was intended, I will still place the opposite trade til the end of the month. I wanted to give this project a name, so I called it 'Trader's Flip'. Once I hit my month's drawdown like this, then I'll be more confident that my current strategy should work as planned.

I wish you well, but if you are not making money, it does not mean that taking the opposite side of every trade will make money. Slippage and commissions are to blame.

It is amazing how many entry & exit techniques work well in the absence of slippage and commissions. That is why so many furus (fake gurus) show results that way.

It is equally amazing how many of those same entries & exits look awful after you add in slippage and commissions.

Just a word of warning.

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  #10 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
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Posts: 62 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 103 given, 110 received



kevinkdog View Post
I wish you well, but if you are not making money, it does not mean that taking the opposite side of every trade will make money. Slippage and commissions are to blame.

It is amazing how many entry & exit techniques work well in the absence of slippage and commissions. That is why so many furus (fake gurus) show results that way.

It is equally amazing how many of those same entries & exits look awful after you add in slippage and commissions.

Just a word of warning.

I agree, thanks. But my current strategy is to stay away from scalps, and to catch a swing intra-day trade in the morning. My stoploss is wide enough to take in slippages, and commission shouldn't be a problem because I will only be taking 1-2 trades a day. I use to use 10 ticks as stoploss for scalping trades, and taking over 5 trades a day is when I notice the commission eating profits away. The stoploss I use right now begins with 20 ticks.

The primary goal for this project is not to focus on making a profit, but to dig deeper into what is working for me and not. And hopefully, I'll get a different insight into creating a better strategy.

"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.
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