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hen322's ES MES Daytrading Skill Development cont. from Elite J
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hen322's ES MES Daytrading Skill Development cont. from Elite J

  #21 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 61 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 101 given, 110 received

Wednesday Uptrend Morning

(0 ticks)

1. No Trades.


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2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 0):

One econ report at 7, so I waited to see how market would react. Then 7:30 Crude oil, which the report looked good, but CL tanked down, and ES kept steadily going up. I was all confused today, so no trades.

3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

Today was September 11 Memorial. I didn't expect much movement in the market.

"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.
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  #22 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 61 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 101 given, 110 received

Thursday Wide Range Morning

(plus 9 ticks)

1. Long

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2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 1):

I felt 70% sure that price would make another leg down after the morning pullback around 7pst. Instead of short, I went long. Once price moved up and stalled a little bit, I exited. I noticed the volume was very low today compared to other days, so I didn't expect a big price move.

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At entry, before bar close:

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After bar close:

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I didn't have a specific entry trigger, except the hunch that it would tank down at resistance area (red lines). My intuition was probably based on how price had been moving all morning til that time. After reviewing my entry, I was not proud of it. I've been taught to wait for bar to close, and I didn't.

3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

One of the authors I read talked about bull and bear traps. I'm beginning to think that that is what I've been going through.

"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.
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  #23 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 61 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 101 given, 110 received

Friday Range Mean Reversion


(minus 4 ticks)

1. One short and One long

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2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 2):

First Trade Short: It looked like it was going to trade in a range and bounce off of prev. day's close (RTH). Instead of going long, I went short, and exited near the top of the range, cause the superdom looked like it had more buy orders instead of sell. Minus 13 ticks.

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Second Trade Long: Price was at top of range, so I had a feeling that it would go back down to test the prev. close again, but instead of shorting, I went long. I exited once it hit my trailing stop with a 9 tick profit.

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3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

I felt more confident in the first trade bouncing up from prev. close, than my second trade's direction. This September project is helping me gauge and sharpen my intuition. If I hit my drawdown for the month on these opposite trades, then I will have more confidence in my strategy to go the way it is suppose to.

"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.
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  #24 (permalink)
Austin, TX
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: ThinkOrSwim
Favorite Futures: Currency futures
 
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Posts: 2 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 1 received

Hi Hen322,

Is it possible to scroll your 5 minute charts back a few weeks and then start moving them forward, one bar at at time, to look for entries and exits and see if the approach you're using now would have generated good results in the past? Or is there a discretionary component to the method that makes this difficult...

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  #25 (permalink)
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8, TOS
Broker/Data: Dorman Trading
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 61 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 101 given, 110 received


Slopetrader View Post
Hi Hen322,

Is it possible to scroll your 5 minute charts back a few weeks and then start moving them forward, one bar at at time, to look for entries and exits and see if the approach you're using now would have generated good results in the past? Or is there a discretionary component to the method that makes this difficult...

That would be difficult for me. I can understand how a System's Trader would do that. My discretionary indicators involve how the overall energy the morning has, as well as what news is making the markets move that day.

I work on reading the markets live, cause I take into consideration how I feel at that time, which determines my risk tolerance, which determines if I take the trade or not. I think my intuition has been improving each week, which effects my decisions, so backtesting gives me a false sense of what I would have done at that time.

I also use Market internal indicators such as the $tick, $vold, and $add to help me gauge the trend, and I keep an eye on the other instruments such as the other indices, bond, gold, and oil to help me know if the market as a whole is healthy or contradictory. All this helps me decide whether to stay away from trading that day or not.

I know all this sounds like too much, but having done this for some time, it really isn't to me, and trying to rewind all these other indicators will be too much work.

I'm a big believer in what the book "Fooled by Randomness" says, how looking back at the past doesn't seem so random after all. Randomness really is a factor that we always face during live trading. We just have to make our best decisions considering all the other components present at that time.

I'm not trying to knock down backtesting, but I feel empty when I do it, and find that it is a help when I'm only making a new indicator.

"When the market reverses, it always does so at support and resistance levels; with practice, an individual trader can usually spot them." Al Brooks.

Last edited by hen322; Yesterday at 04:05 PM.
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