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hen322's ES MES Daytrading Skill Development cont. from Elite J


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hen322's ES MES Daytrading Skill Development cont. from Elite J

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  #21 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

(0 ticks)

1. No Trades.




2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 0):

One econ report at 7, so I waited to see how market would react. Then 7:30 Crude oil, which the report looked good, but CL tanked down, and ES kept steadily going up. I was all confused today, so no trades.

3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

Today was September 11 Memorial. I didn't expect much movement in the market.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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Can you help answer these questions
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  #22 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

(plus 9 ticks)

1. Long



2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 1):

I felt 70% sure that price would make another leg down after the morning pullback around 7pst. Instead of short, I went long. Once price moved up and stalled a little bit, I exited. I noticed the volume was very low today compared to other days, so I didn't expect a big price move.



At entry, before bar close:



After bar close:



I didn't have a specific entry trigger, except the hunch that it would tank down at resistance area (red lines). My intuition was probably based on how price had been moving all morning til that time. After reviewing my entry, I was not proud of it. I've been taught to wait for bar to close, and I didn't.

3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

One of the authors I read talked about bull and bear traps. I'm beginning to think that that is what I've been going through.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #23 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received


(minus 4 ticks)

1. One short and One long



2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 2):

First Trade Short: It looked like it was going to trade in a range and bounce off of prev. day's close (RTH). Instead of going long, I went short, and exited near the top of the range, cause the superdom looked like it had more buy orders instead of sell. Minus 13 ticks.




Second Trade Long: Price was at top of range, so I had a feeling that it would go back down to test the prev. close again, but instead of shorting, I went long. I exited once it hit my trailing stop with a 9 tick profit.




3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

I felt more confident in the first trade bouncing up from prev. close, than my second trade's direction. This September project is helping me gauge and sharpen my intuition. If I hit my drawdown for the month on these opposite trades, then I will have more confidence in my strategy to go the way it is suppose to.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #24 (permalink)
Austin, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ThinkOrSwim
Trading: Currency futures
 
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Posts: 3 since Mar 2012
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Hi Hen322,

Is it possible to scroll your 5 minute charts back a few weeks and then start moving them forward, one bar at at time, to look for entries and exits and see if the approach you're using now would have generated good results in the past? Or is there a discretionary component to the method that makes this difficult...

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  #25 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received


Slopetrader View Post
Hi Hen322,

Is it possible to scroll your 5 minute charts back a few weeks and then start moving them forward, one bar at at time, to look for entries and exits and see if the approach you're using now would have generated good results in the past? Or is there a discretionary component to the method that makes this difficult...

That would be difficult for me. I can understand how a System's Trader would do that. My discretionary indicators involve how the overall energy the morning has, as well as what news is making the markets move that day.

I work on reading the markets live, cause I take into consideration how I feel at that time, which determines my risk tolerance, which determines if I take the trade or not. I think my intuition has been improving each week, which effects my decisions, so backtesting gives me a false sense of what I would have done at that time.

I also use Market internal indicators such as the $tick, $vold, and $add to help me gauge the trend, and I keep an eye on the other instruments such as the other indices, bond, gold, and oil to help me know if the market as a whole is healthy or contradictory. All this helps me decide whether to stay away from trading that day or not.

I know all this sounds like too much, but having done this for some time, it really isn't to me, and trying to rewind all these other indicators will be too much work.

I'm a big believer in what the book "Fooled by Randomness" says, how looking back at the past doesn't seem so random after all. Randomness really is a factor that we always face during live trading. We just have to make our best decisions considering all the other components present at that time.

I'm not trying to knock down backtesting, but I feel empty when I do it, and find that it is a help when I'm only making a new indicator.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #26 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

(0 ticks)

1. No trades.



2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 0):

I was unable to read where the market would go today, because of oil attack last Saturday.

3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

I read from Al Brooks that if you don't know where the direction would go, then assume a range. Sure enough, a reversal at 7, and one at 8, creating a range.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #27 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

(minus 22 ticks)

1. Long and Short



2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 2):
First Trade Long: Once price traded back it it's prev. close (gap close pattern), I would have shorted for a bounce play, but went long. I was in by 2pts, and was aiming for the overnight session's high of around 3005. I moved up my stop loss below the current bar's low. I got stopped out at minus 5 ticks.




Second Trade Short: It seemed like it be in a range trade, so I would have went long, but went short instead. Price struggled up for a while, then hit my stop loss at the top of the channel, minus 17 ticks.





3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.
I'm starting to believe that my opposite trades only work well with 2 legged patterns. I noticed that I would often get caught in a bull/bear trap on a 5min chart, and how the shorter time frames showed a possible 2 legged pattern going the other way.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #28 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

(0 ticks)

1. No Trades.



2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 0):


3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.
I was feeling confident in the direction of my trades that I didn't want to take a chance at doing an opposite one. I used my demo account and did well, and if I did an opposite entry on them, I would have lost. The first trade was the 2 legged move at the open, and the 2nd trade was a range trade after 730.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #29 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received

(0 ticks)

1. No Trades.



2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 0):

The opening was a breakout of the previous day's mini channel.


It looked like it was too high, and a reversal setup was forming. I felt 80% sure that price was going down, and I felt extremely uncomfortable to make an opposite trade, so I used my demo to prove my analysis.


I was wrong, and was stopped out.


I saw a second opportunity to enter a trade, and was for sure that it would do a reversal this time, with a double top forming. I was again very uncomfortable to do an opposite trade, so I used demo for a trade in the intended direction. I got stopped out again.


3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.
I read somewhere that the great trades are the most difficult ones to take. I had a difficult time trading against the bias I had formed. If I took the opposite trades today, I would have ended with a profit, with two 2-legged pattern trades, instead of two attempted reversals.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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  #30 (permalink)
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, Jigsaw
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: Emini ES, Micro ES, ZN, ZB, ZF
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 129 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 147 given, 239 received


*Title shows Day of the Week and "The Chart Patterns Used for the Trades". Starting Today.
(minus 7 ticks)

1. Long



2. My Brief Thoughts during the Trades with Zoomed-in Pictures (#of Trades: 1):
(Explanations below chart, instead of on top, starting today)



It looked like a double top forming on all chart timeframes. Entered Long instead of Short, for opposite trade.



I got stopped out at minus 7 ticks.

3. Afterthoughts in a Nutshell.

I'm beginning to feel more confident not doing these opposite trades.

“Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers.” – Tony Robbins
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September 30, 2019


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