Listened to some TradersAudio through the MTG trading room just for fun and watched price react. Not sure if there's an edge, I mean, the noise gets loud when volume spikes and when it gets really quiet the moderator gets off topic when volume is low. Big surprise. It's interesting when he sees a JP Morgan or Goldman trader lurking around the room and when he starts buying/selling he gets really excited but the market didn't move very much on the big trades.
Last edited by shodson; November 11th, 2009 at 07:41 PM.
That's right, it's always easier after, to say that which type of gap it was .
But, on the other hand, that was a gap after a week-end, and not a small gap (nearly 1%).
I've been studying gap for a while, on another futures contract, and found that small gaps are usualy closed during the same day.
But if this gap is not closed, it can stay open for a long time...
The conclusion is nearly the same as what I've found with naked OTM options: you win in most cases, but when you loose, you loose a lot, and the last weeks profits can disappear in one or two trades...
Bad risk/reward ratio, imho.
Usually in trading, those who know don't talk, and those who talk don't know. (Al Brooks)
success requires no deodorant! (Sun Tzu)
11/12 - The opening gap was small and although the odds were good there were other cross-currents and confluence that the moderator didn't like. So I didn't fade it though it did fill within the first 30 mins and meet the extended target.
After that I was looking for trades off of +/-1,000 extremities in the $TICK (Tradestation) @5min and took 1 smaller position long trade but it didn't go as high nor as fast as I hoped so I closed out the position in chop for a +1 tick preemptive exit. Psychologically, if I think it's going to reverse and instead it goes sideways for a while (2 bars is "a while"?) I feel like my trade is now a gamble since chop is indecision, and there's a 50% chance the market could go in either direction. What do you guys feel about that? I know that this "indecision" could be part of a flag pattern, or the middle part of an AB-CD pattern, but it also might not be. Since I was looking for a reversal and not a continuation I felt it was riskier to stay in a sideways trade hoping for a reversal since I've seen too many periods of indecision turn out to be flags in continuation patterns.
In today's case I would have been better off waiting and perhaps lowering my targets (I was targeting +3 pts but ATR was 2.1 so I was probably expecting too much). It did eventually get to 3+ pts but my impatience took me out before the push I was hoping for. Even in retrospect I don't regret getting out when I did since I didn't lose money, even though maybe I should regret the opportunity cost.
I wrote the indicator myself. I have not made it available to the public, though I may decide to do so later. I have not tried it on Keltner Channels but my hunch is that it will not work as well but I'm not sure. You can see that the trade I took today turns out was also a nice pullback entry, if only I had stayed in it. Another nice long entry signal fired off at 5:35am (West Coast) I have done some backtesting with this and it works well but it depends on how you take the entry. For example, for a long signal I could either enter on the touch of the EMA (which is hard to backtest because it's hard to test intra-bar limit orders in backtesting and I'm not sure I want the headache of managing limit orders, partial fills, etc, in a strat) or, enter when it closes below the EMA, or wait for a close below the EMA and enter when it reverses back over it.
Last edited by shodson; November 12th, 2009 at 12:27 PM.
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
11/13 - Well, had 2 winners and 1 loser, but the loser was big so ended up a $ loser on the day.
The MTG win rate of gap fill was 70% with 1.62 profit factor, with 60% and 1.87 for the extended target. Again, another juicy oppty, but I decided to not take it because the pre-market was pretty volatile and fading a small gap didn't seem worth it. It did eventually fill early and with the bad consumer sentiment report it filled the extended target too. Darn. The moderator did take the trade but screwed up his limit order so ended up scratch on the trade. He was pretty ticked!
So I did some daytrading for a bit...
Trade #1- Long FAIL
Wanted to get in sooner @1087.25 but had to step away for a sec to help get my kids ready, came back and got in later/higher @1089.25. In hindsight, deciding to buy 2pts later was dumb, didn't do the math in real-time. I was up a bit then the Michigan consumer sentiment reports came out negative and it tanked immediately. I didn't have my stops tighter as I had pretty big initial targets and it jetted right through them. I need to be more aware of what reports are coming out during the trading session and avoid trading around them. That's what pros do and I didn't act like a pro in that trade.
3@ -17 ticks, 1@ -20 ticks
Trade #2 - Long WIN
Took the breakout of the inside bar, hit my 3pt target on the bulk and stopped out on the runner
3@ +12 ticks, 1@ +6 ticks
Trade #3 - Short WIN
Went short on extremities on the TICK, played it more conservatively with tighter stops and smaller targets because the TICK reading wasn't as high as I'd normally like it, and good thing I did.
1@ +4 ticks, 1@ 0 ticks, 1@ -1 tick
ES - 2 winners, 1 loser = -26 ticks total
Last edited by shodson; November 13th, 2009 at 02:18 PM.