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shodson's Trading Journal
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shodson's Trading Journal

  #721 (permalink)
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AAPL put spread

This AAPL put spread I sold a while ago has reached 82.2% of it's full profit potential, but they don't expire until November so I'm not sure I want to wait another month. I'm thinking I'll just hold it until expiration as the odds of hitting me to the downside are so low. Apple would have to get down to $343, which isn't going to happen with the iPhone 4S selling so well. Also this is a really small position so it's not tying up a bunch of capital that I need for something else.

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Last edited by shodson; October 17th, 2011 at 01:41 PM.
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  #722 (permalink)
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Monday, October 17th, 2011 - Tax payment day for us late filers!

The gap guides were very favorable and it was easy to take the trade but the market was just too bearish today and I got stopped out on a losing 7pt gap trade.

The FHGs came out. There was nothing terribly compelling but I wanted to get short, the market just felt really heavy. So I took a FHG low breakout trade but somehow executed it incorrectly and was long instead of short. Pretty quickly I got out for a -1tick loss. After that I re-examined the FHGs and didn't see any statistical reason for getting short, besides good numbers in the TF, but no other instruments confirmed it, so I passed.

I follwed the internals for a while and wanted to buy strength into this bear market day. As it approached the EMA(20) for the first time of the day I placed a limit order right on the EMA, then later cancelled it. That would have been a nice trade. Then I tried to get short again based on some TRIN patterns I've been studying but my limit order was never filled and the market just went down for the whole day. So, besides my gap trade, I had the right idea, just had some poor execution and unlucky breaks in unfilled orders.

ES: -29 ticks

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Last edited by shodson; October 17th, 2011 at 09:34 PM.
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  #723 (permalink)
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Tuesday, October 18th, 2011 - We had weak gap guides with small gaps so I did not take any gap trades this morning.

The strongest setup in the FHGs was the low breakout, but the high breakout in TF was pretty good too with some confirmation from the YM and the diamonds so I went long on a retrace after breaking the first-hour highs. Also, internals were bullish so I was going with the tide. It floundered between the pivot and the EMA(20) for a while then burst to the upside in my favor for some reason quickly hitting my target.

TF: +42 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-fhgs.png   shodson's Trading Journal-tf-waiting.png   shodson's Trading Journal-tf-entry.png   shodson's Trading Journal-tf-win.png   shodson's Trading Journal-internals.png  

Last edited by shodson; October 18th, 2011 at 01:16 PM.
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  #724 (permalink)
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Wednesday, October 19th, 2011 - The gap guides were pretty good but yesterday's outside day had me concerned that today would be a very indecisive and volatile day. Still, the gap guides favored gap fill pretty strongly so I set up to fade the gap and picked up a 4.75pt winner.

When the FHGs came out they showed a moderately good setup to take the high breakout. I saw price had poked through its highs and pulled back deeper than I would normally try to get in so I got in with a market order with a better than usual entry. However, I later realized that the highs had not actually been pierced, only touched, so technically the signal was not fired, although it did fire 20 minutes later so I just got a premature entry. Also, I forgot to check TRIN before entering the trade and when I did after I saw that the TRIN was bearish, so mistake #2. I was also concerned that my stop was above the pivot and that if we tried to get a test of the pivot I would be stopped out. At one point I was +11 ticks on the trade and I almost hit the "Close" button but hesitated and the next thing I knew I was back to -0.1 or so and convinced myself I would get out once we got positive again. TRIN got more bearish, then it didn't, then it did. Now I'm trading on hope and fear. I tried not think about my gap trade winnings I was about to lose and decided to trust in the data/probabilities. In the end, the bears did me in for a loss.

At one point while I was seeing even more bearish signals firing with the price action (resumption of move with the beginning of a 5th wave) I almost did a stop and reverse, which I've never done before so I didn't, but that would have been a nice reversal trade. It's been said good traders not only know when to get out but when to reverse. It seems like a nice way to lose your money twice as fast if you don't know what you're doing but I can see how it can be a useful skill to have if you can harness the power of it.

ES: +23 ticks
TF: -51 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-es-gap-filled.png   shodson's Trading Journal-tf-fhg-loser.png   shodson's Trading Journal-trin-after-entry.png   shodson's Trading Journal-trin-big-wave-selling.png  

Last edited by shodson; October 19th, 2011 at 03:20 PM.
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  #725 (permalink)
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Up late working on...

Needs more testing, but a good place to start

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  #726 (permalink)
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I like the "What programs have you bought? Confess" thread. It made me think about the history of my trading journey. I made my own list and keep updating when I remember things I forgot about. Add your own posting there as well. Come on, there's no need to be embarrassed.

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  #727 (permalink)
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Thursday, October 20th, 2011 - There were semi-decent conditions for fading the gap, even for extended target trades. The market opened with a small gap up and I faded the gap's extended target for a 5+pt win.

I had to travel this morning so I didn't make any other trades. I checked later and saw that the market broke nicely below the first hour lows but the FHGs didn't indicate an edge trading in that direction.

I signed up for the Kinetick real-time feed to get access to some other sets of data that I can't get from ZenFire (market internals) so I don't have to rely on thinkorswim for those, and I can incorporate them into my backtesting. So we'll see how that goes.

ES: +21 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-0-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-1-gap-play.png   shodson's Trading Journal-2-strategy.png   shodson's Trading Journal-3-chart.png  
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  #728 (permalink)
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Friday, October 21st, 2011 - I didn't really like any of the gap guide data, and yesterday was pretty much a doji and it's options expiration day, I just avoided any gap trades. We did open higher above yesterday's highs, near the highs of 2 days ago, and I would have been stopped out for an 8pt loss if I had taken the trade, so sitting on my hands was the right thing to do.

I didn't do any other trading due to work constraints.

NO TRADES

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shodson's Trading Journal-0-gapguides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-1-gapplay.png   shodson's Trading Journal-2-chart.png  

Last edited by shodson; October 21st, 2011 at 02:29 PM.
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Monday, October 24th, 2011 - No gap trades today because the gap was so small.

I will fade the lows of the first hour, which is just below the open, right around Friday's close, but I may not get filled on this order.

later

I never was filled

NO TRADES

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Last edited by shodson; October 24th, 2011 at 07:19 PM.
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shodson View Post
Needs more testing, but a good place to start

Starting to believe, but with healthy skepticism. Going to put this in SIM...

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