I jumped on this trendline break, below the low of the penetrating bar in TF, targeted 60 ticks but it never went much farther down after that and I got stopped out above the swing high. The 2 constant lines are 25% and 50% of my target reached, where I start to make adjustments to my stop. This is my first losing trade this month.
TF: -33 ticks
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I failed to mention I re-joined MasterTheGap this month. I stopped earlier this year due to needing to focus on work, which pays my bills. I also wanted to strengthen/understand my psychological makeup a little more and study/experiment with trade management. So I kept following their daily emails and they've had a very good year so far. Also, they had a good sale/promo going and I got back in for just $99/mo (I was paying $149/mo, but that included chat room access, which I don't use now).
At any rate, as much as it is important to talk/think about the trades one does take, it's also helpful to talk about the trades one doesn't take.
So last night I set up my strategy to fade the gap in ES if it was at least 2pts from the close and between the high and low of yesterday's session. It opened above the high so the strategy did not take the trade, but it was a winning trade. I picked those zones because the gap guides had good win rates and profit factors there, and they were somewhat confirmed with other index contracts
For those that trade with MTG, I've included a screenshot of MTG's "Gap Play" they publish 20-15 mins before the open. I don't use this since my trades are automated and set up the night before, but I like to read them after-the-fact. Notice how much analysis is gone through just to take a single trade. Do you take even half as many factors into consideration when you take a day trade?
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Tuesday, September 20th, 2011 - My automated strategy shorted the open for a gap fill trade, using historical probabilities from MTG and my own personalized way to trade them.
ES: +24 ticks
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I focus on trading. If there is a strategy or way of trading that I think I can automate and/or that I want to backtest then I code it if I have the time and energy to pursue it. The only live-money automated strategy that I use is for fading gaps.
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If any of you are in Southern California feel free to stop by the Orange County Traders Association Meetup that I run. We are bringing some of our recent winning and losing trades, discussing why we took them, and how we could have traded them better if possible. Attendance is free and there is no vendor-selling allowed.
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